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Insights Now

Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, where he sits down with a variety of thought leaders for a conversational breakdown of big ideas, future trends, emerging topics and their investment implications to help inform building stronger investment plans for the long-term.

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Will 2023 be a year of slow growth, but better markets?

As we plan for our next season, please provide your thoughts and any suggestions on our podcast. You can reach out to our team, Market Insights, at mi.questions@jpmorgan.com. 2022 has been a brutal year for investors, with unusually large sell-offs in both stocks and bonds resulting in one of the worst years ever for balanced investing. However, 2023 may be the calm after the storm of this year, with markets stabilizing, inflation receding and the Fed nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Moreover, precisely because markets have been so battered, lower equity valuations and higher bond yields present some of the most attractive entry points for investors in over a decade. On our last episode of this season, I am joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to discuss the key takeaways from our Investment Outlook for 2023 and the importance of asset allocation in a challenged environment.

20mins

19 Dec 2022

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Bonds are back

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Bob Michele, CIO and Head of the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities group, discuss the outlook for fixed income and how investors can take advantage of opportunities. Higher rates and rising inflation have created a particularly challenging environment for bonds this year, with the U.S. Agg. down a whopping 13% year-to-date. However, the selloff has also brought valuations down to their most attractive levels in years, and the backup in yields means bonds can once again provide investors with a reliable source of income and diversification. While economic uncertainties remain about the timing of a Fed pivot and the potential for U.S. recession, the case for bonds is as strong as it's been in over a decade.  To discuss the outlook for fixed income markets and how investors can take advantage of these opportunities, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Bob Michele, CIO and Head of the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities group, at JP Morgan Asset Management.

17mins

1 Dec 2022

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The Implications of Divided Government

Earlier this month, Americans went to the polls for the midterm elections. While some were expecting a red wave, what resulted was more of a red ripple with Republicans garnering a slim majority in the House and Democrats likely maintaining control of the Senate. In today's politically polarized climate, divided government means gridlock, and as the country grapples with high inflation, the potential for recession and heightened geopolitical tensions, this will have important implications for the kind of government action or lack thereof, we may see over the next two years.  On this episode, I am joined by Michelle Mesack, Head of Federal Government Relations at JP Morgan Chase with extensive experience in government and public policy, as well as my colleague Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the main takeaways for investors from the midterm elections.

27mins

17 Nov 2022

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The future of globalization

The global pandemic, supply chain problems and heightened geopolitical tensions from Russia's war in Ukraine have all raised questions about whether the long trend towards globalization is being thrown into reverse. Our 2023 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions, available now, features a paper that tackles the future of globalization. In this episode, Stephanie Aliaga interviews two of the authors from the paper, Dr. David Kelly and Kerry Craig, to discuss the potential future paths of globalization, and implications of a multi-polar world order for the global economy, inflation and valuations. Episode topics: History and drivers of globalization (1:18), Russia-Ukraine (8:00), future paths of globalization (9:55), global energy transition (16:40), trade in goods vs. services (19:08), implications for the dollar (21:50), implications for inflation (24:15), regional winners and loser (26:45), China (30:32), valuations and sector outlook (32:15). We also encourage you to also read the full report, linked here. 

38mins

9 Nov 2022

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Cross-currents for corporate profits

In this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for a discussion on the outlook for U.S. equities and what investors can expect from 3Q22 earnings season. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and slowing consumer demand have all posed considerable headwinds to U.S. equities and contributed to the large selloffs experienced in markets this year. As third-quarter earnings season kicks off, investors are hoping to gain insight into how earnings, revenues and margins are holding up as the macro environment gets rockier. While the risks dampening investor sentiment right now are very real, valuations have also come down significantly, paving the way for potentially very attractive expected returns going forward.

20mins

25 Oct 2022

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Europe’s energy crisis and the UK response

In an already challenging year for markets, the energy crisis in Europe and recent fiscal actions by the UK government have rattled market sentiment and caused further disruption to currency and global bond markets. A higher reliance on Russian supply has put Europe in a particularly vulnerable position as winter approaches, with electricity prices soaring and increased risk of gas shortages. All of this, and its consequences for consumer spending and business confidence, has increased the likelihood of a near-term recession in Europe. On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Hugh Gimber, Global Market Strategist, to shed some light on these issues and the outlook going forward for the UK and Europe. 

22mins

6 Oct 2022

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The Fed: Hiking up a hill of uncertainty

This episode kicks off our fifth season of Insights Now. Over the course of this season, Dr. David Kelly will sit down with a slate of market strategists and subject matter experts to discuss topics such as the implications of aggressive Fed tightening, the European energy crisis, equity market volatility, and the future of globalization to try to provide some insight into investing in this very stormy climate. On the episode, we tackle important questions for investors surrounding the outlook for the Federal Reserve. After a slow start, the Fed is now reacting very aggressively to higher inflation, boosting interest rates across the board and threatening the economy with recession. As markets have come under intense pressure from this increased hawkishness, it is an opportune time to have a conversation with our fixed income strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Jordan Jackson on positioning portfolios amidst this environment of higher rates, elevated inflation and market volatility.

23mins

27 Sep 2022

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Investing in Troubled Times

Investors have had a challenging year so far, however, while outlook remains cloudy, investors should remember that the U.S. has always been an economy of long summers and short winters. While winter may be coming soon, much of the "bad news" might already be priced into markets, and investors may be wise to take advantage of the correction in valuations to position portfolios for the long summer, or expansion, ahead. For the last episode this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for an insightful conversation on navigating investing in troubled times. For additional resources please visit Principles for successful long-term investing. We'd also love to hear your thoughts and any suggestions you may have on our podcast as we plan for our next season. You can reach out to our team, Market Insights, at mi.questions@jpmorgan.com.

28mins

20 Jul 2022

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Alternatives in a higher rate, slower growth world

2022 has been a challenging year for most public asset classes, leaving many investors at odds on how to position portfolios, protect against inflation and identify areas for potential excess returns going forward. While markets have been more challenging, the need for income, capital appreciation and capital preservation has not changed. That’s where alternative investments may provide some solutions. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, to discuss the outlook for Alternatives in an environment with higher rates and slower growth. For more information on the Guide to Alternatives, please visit our website here.

21mins

30 Jun 2022

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The Labor Market: Cyclical strength and structural change

Today, as investors mull the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, the strength in the labor market can be a double-edged sword. On one end, a healthy labor market with red-hot demand for workers could protect the economy from high unemployment in the next recession. On the other end, too-hot of a labor market gives the Fed a greater need to act aggressively to tame inflation and prevent an overheating economy, which very well might push the economy into a recession. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the latest jobs report, the outlook for the labor market and our latest thoughts on the risk of a recession in 2022 or 2023.  For more insights, please visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage.

23mins

9 Jun 2022

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