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Eye On The Market

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

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Lost in space: The search for democratic socialism in the real world

Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

6mins

24 Jun 2019

Rank #1

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Trump tariffs in context

In this episode, Michael Cembalest takes a look at the recent tariff announcements in the context of historical tariffs since 1900. While the tariffs are substantial for the industries affected, Michael explains why they may not move the needle for overall consumer prices or corporate profits. Please see the podcast video or visit jpmorgan.com/eotm for the slide referenced. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

5mins

15 Jun 2018

Rank #2

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The Arc and the Covenants

Michael Cembalest takes a unique look at US states, cities, and counties using his signature comprehensive debt ratio. While municipalities have time to address underfunded obligations, some face difficult trade-offs. Legal precedent shows that bondholder losses exceed pensioner write-downs. Given complacent conditions in credit markets, this is a good time to review muni diversification. Read more: jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320745513818.pdf *Please note this PDF is publicly available and issued through our Private Bank business. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

9mins

17 May 2018

Rank #3

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The room where it happens

Michael recaps the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, and recaps his meetings in DC with a group of Congressmen to discuss debt, deficits and financial markets. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

8mins

25 Jun 2018

Rank #4

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Chinese handcuffs

Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market. Topics include the underappreciated risks of Chinese retaliation against US companies doing business in China, and how a full-blown trade war and military conflict are far from inevitable given the greater economic linkages between the US and China compared to adversaries of the last 100 years. Also, some thoughts on emerging markets, Turkey and serial defaulter Argentina. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

8mins

29 May 2018

Rank #5

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The Late Show

Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The Late Show. He considers why despite strong US earnings growth and global expansion, equity markets remain flattish in 2018. He tackles the drivers of somewhat muted equity returns by focusing on late-cycle investing, the Fed, and the factors affecting the path of interest rates (labor markets and the expanding budget deficit). Michael also discusses his views on the oil price recovery since 2016. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

9mins

8 May 2018

Rank #6

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America, First

Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market: America, First. Michael reviews the strength of US equity markets so far this year in the context of fading fiscal and monetary stimulus, signs of fatigue in US tech stocks and potential ramifications of constitutional and trade concerns. Other topics include current dynamics in Italy and the US commercial real estate market. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

11mins

3 Sep 2018

Rank #7

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The song remains the same

Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The song remains the same. Michael reviews current market dynamics, walks through four investment strategies that have performed well over multiple cycles as this one enters its latter stages, and shares his thoughts on the Helsinki summit. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

8mins

23 Jul 2018

Rank #8

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Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

11mins

30 Sep 2020

Rank #9

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COVID Research: Charts of the Week

US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd immunity.

11mins

29 Jul 2020

Rank #10

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Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper

While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.

16mins

29 Jun 2020

Rank #11

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Zoom Room

In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

15mins

26 May 2020

Rank #12

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Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

13mins

11 May 2020

Rank #13

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Covid-19 Update

Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.

8mins

17 Apr 2020

Rank #14

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Man vs Nature

Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.

10mins

29 Mar 2020

Rank #15

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COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets

Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.

12mins

23 Mar 2020

Rank #16

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Berning Man

An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.

20mins

5 Mar 2020

Rank #17

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Millions and Trillions

Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

17mins

6 Feb 2020

Rank #18

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Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

8mins

17 Jan 2020

Rank #19

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Ghosts of Christmas Past

Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.

15mins

31 Dec 2019

Rank #20