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DHUnplugged Podcast

DHUnplugged Podcast

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DHUnplugged #624: Breaking Things

– Egotistical Narcissists as as the the Stupidity Police are not doing their job. Chinese living in ROTTING properties Some amazing technicals – historic in fact. WOW! The lowdown on Pumpkin Spice latte.. Big Business! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Egotistical Narcissists - The Stupidity Police are not doing their job - Chinese living in ROTTING properties - We have another FRAMEWORK - Sending Kamala to the DMZ line Market Update - B A D - Things are starting to break - Confidence lost as things are breaking (Currencies) ---- Fed needs to chill - and I have a few tings to say.. - China opening up Macau (Casino stocks fly) - Technical indicators!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NEXT WEEK - YOM KIPPUR - NO SHOW Rate Update - High grade money markets >2.4% - 2 year muni bond >2.5%   3.5% - 12 month treasury >4.3% - 10-year taps 4% today - 1 year CD > 3.5% JCD - FYI - DJIA @ 30,706      29,500    29,134!!!! Tropical Storm/Hurricane - Storm looks nasty - in the middle of some of the bans right now Technical as of Monday Morning (Charts) - Some very severe oversold conditions - KRI (-7) - only seen one time in recent history and that was 12/24/2019 when market bottomed - RSI all over sold - McClellan - LOW (-400) - Spearman LOW (-98) - 11 New 52 week highs -(most inverse ETFs) - VIX >30 - 447  SP500 below 200 DMA Boneheads - Huge tax cuts in the UK apparently decided on overnight and the approval of massive debt issuance. - Do we miss Boris Johnson Yet? - More things breaking The Cable More on Brit Pound - That currency move is NOT normal and should give a cold-water-slap-upside-the-head-punch-in-the-mouth wake-up call to Team Powell. - The moves that they are making and the hard line they are shaking is a bit over the top. - Unfortunately they have a much bigger regard for themselves than then should. - In fact, it appears that Team Powell is made up a gaggle of egocentric narcissists that need to come down off their collective perch's and take a look at what is really going on and why we are seeing historic moves in some financial markets. Sending Kamala - Vice President Kamala Harris will visit the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the Koreas on Thursday in a bid to show Washington's commitment to the South's security - The DMZ visit will underscore the strength of the alliance between Seoul and Washington "in the face of any threats posed" by North Korea - Does not seem like a show of strength FEELINGS ON THE FED (Not due to markets, due to policy) - A bunch of  two-toned, zebra headed, slime-coated, pimple-farming, paramecium brain, munching-on-their-own-mucus, all suffering from PETER PAN? ENVY!!!  AND -  lewd, crude, rude, bag of pre-chewed food, dudes! Lying, crying, spying, prying ultra-pigs!   (From the movie Pan - Robin William) China - Rotting - A movement of home buyers around China who have moved into what they call "rotting" apartments, either to pressure developers and authorities to complete them or out of financial necessity. - Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute estimated in July that stalled projects accounted for 3.85% of China's housing market in the first half of 2022, equivalent to an area of 231 million square metres. Can't Even - Pumpkin spice latte (PSL) -  PSL industry was worth >$500 million - - Starbucks has sold more than 600 million since inception PSA - Don't cook your chicken in NyQuil - FDA now warning about this new TikTok challenge - Possible that brands are behind this insanity? - A number of videos challenged people to cook chicken in NyQuil, which contains acetaminophen, dextromethorphan and doxylamine, or another similar over-the-counter cough and cold medication (boiling concentrates) - Supposedly creates hallucinations Order Flow - Being reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will stop short of banning payment-for-order-flow (PFOF). - The SEC may still enact other changes that make the practice less profitable - Stocks HOOD, VIRT How Bad? - Bonds - Worst Bond market since 1949 Framework - U.S. House Democrats  released a framework for legislation that would restrict lawmakers and other senior government officials, including the Supreme Court, from trading in stocks. - The bill would also restrict lawmakers' spouses and dependent children from trading stock and holding certain other investments. - It will also require public officials to divest from such holdings or place them in a blind trust, according to the framework. - What is the chance that this passes? Such BS - Under pressure to resign for declining to say whether he accepts the scientific consensus on global warming, World Bank President David Malpass said on Thursday it was clear greenhouse emissions are causing climate change and defended his record as bank chief. - He was at panel discussion and would not answer about whether fossil fuels warmed the planet A Mystery! - European countries on Tuesday scrambled to investigate unexplained leaks in two Russian gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea near Sweden and Denmark - Sweden's Maritime Authority issued a warning about two leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, shortly after a leak on the nearby Nord Stream 2 pipeline was discovered that had prompted Denmark to restrict shipping in a five nautical mile radius. - Perhaps another shutdown? FlashBack - Remember the New Jersey Diner? Publicly traded and worth $100 million (one store) - Three people involved with a $100 million public company built around a single New Jersey deli were charged with market manipulation. - Federal prosecutors on Monday accused James T. Patten, Peter L. Coker Sr. and Peter L. Coker Jr. of artificially inflating the price of two companies through manipulative trading. This is Interesting - Remote Work Drove Over 60% of House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds - The shift to working from home drove more than half of the increase in house and rent prices during the pandemic and will likely drive up costs and inflation going forward as the shift becomes permanent - This needs to be discussed - new inflation calculation coming? How do we account for this phenom? Sound Familiar? - The European Commission urged the new Italian government to stick to reform plans as it cleared the way on Tuesday for the payment of an additional 21 billion euros - The Commission said Italy had met a series of 45 landmarks and targets in reform of areas such as public employment, procurement, tax administration, teaching and healthcare to qualify for another part of a 192 billion euro program. Wall Street Shakedown - The SEC announces charges against 15 broker-dealers and one affiliated investment adviser for widespread and longstanding failures by the firms and their employees to maintain and preserve electronic communications. The firms admitted the facts set forth in their respective SEC orders, acknowledged that their conduct violated recordkeeping provisions, agreed to pay combined penalties of more than $1.1 billion, and have begun implementing improvements to their compliance policies and procedures to settle these matters. - The following eight firms (and five affiliates) have agreed to pay penalties of $125 mln each: Barclays Capital; BofA Securities (BAC); Citigroup (C); Credit Suisse (CS); Deutsche Bank (DB); Goldman Sachs (GS); Morgan Stanley (MS); and UBS Securities (UBS). - The following two firms have agreed to pay penalties of $50 mln each: Jefferies (JEF); and Nomura Securities. Cantor Fitzgerald has agreed to pay a $10 mln penalty. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE WINNER FOR CTP for Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

1hr 3mins

28 Sep 2022

Rank #1

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DHUnplugged #623: Rate Hysteria

Auntie Em! It’s a twister! Rate hikes that is – everyone is getting hysterical. FedEx puts a crimp in the outlook. Stranger Danger – new Monkeypox advice in China PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - So Sorry - The Killers concert update - Biden making some big announcements - Announcing the winner of the CTP for Bed bath and Beyond - Stranger Danger - FedEx Warning shakes markets - New sport? Nose Biting? ---- Has done something no one has ever done before! Market Update - Big day coming - Fed Rate Decision - UGLY week - CPI (Inflation) ruined the party --- 5.5% DOWN for NASDAQ last Tuesday. Markets off big last week - Oil dropping on concerns that China COVID -ZERO and global slowdown - Goldman Cutting US Growth Forecast RATE HYSTERIA! - 2PM, 2:30PM - Wednesday - 20% probability of 1% and 100% of 75%| - 10Yr spiked again - now over the top of June peak - - Seems that markets and news hysterical - yet inflation peaking..... - If any slight layoff by Powell , markets going to gush higher (at least temporarily) - - Seems like 0.75% priced in - so not sure where we are going from here (pundits again looking for downside after they switched recently) Rate Update - High grade money markets >2% - 2 year muni bond >2.5% - 12 month treasury >4% - 1 year CD > 2.7% JCD - FYI - DJIA @ 30,706 President Biden - Declaration! - The Pandemic Is Over! --- "We still have a problem with COVID. We're still doing a lotta work on it. But the pandemic is over. If you notice, no one's wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape. And so I think it's changing." - Doesn't the WHO have the responsibility of declaring? Biden Again - - Inflation just moved up an inch in the last reading - Trying his best to tamp down the concerns out there - Biden team out if force on the idea that gas and oil prices are down big - talking it up - Oil and gas are all about China - not US Biden - So happy - Gas prices plummeting Gas Prices Maybe not so Happy - US household net worth declined in the second quarter by the most on record as aggressive action by the Fed to tame rapid inflation sent stocks plunging MonekeyPox Back in the News - Seems that spread in Europe is slowing down significantly - China gets first case and now they are saying: Don't touch foreigners to reduce monkeypox risk - "To prevent possible monkeypox infection and as part of our healthy lifestyle, it is recommended that 1) you do not have direct skin-to-skin contact with foreigners," Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention posted on his official Weibo page on Saturday. - 2) Wu also called for people to avoid such contact with people who have been abroad within the past three weeks as well as all "strangers", as he cautioned vigilance. (STRANGER DANGER) What is Up ? FedEx Warning - FedEx on Thursday withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments. - "Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S.," CEO Raj Subramaniam said in the release. "While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts." - Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expected   -  - - --   Revenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expected - Prompted in interview with Cramer: Is the economy headed for Worldwide recession??? ------- “I think so,” Subramaniam said. “These numbers, they don’t portend well.” “We are a reflection of everybody else’s business, especially the high-value economy in the world,” - The company cited specific weakness in Asia as well as challenges to service in Europe for its underperformance in the first quarter. - - Stock was down 24% on this news - one of worst days in Fedex history Overseas - Real Estate - In the June quarter the average dwelling prices fell 2% across Australia. - In New South Wales they fell 3.8% while in Queensland prices were mostly flat. South Australia on the other hand saw a solid 3.6% growth - Since the middle of 2020 residential prices have on average risen 28.4%, while at the same time wages have risen just 2.9%. - Since 2012 average household disposable income has risen 30%, while property prices have risen 82% Australia Housing 1 Australia Housing 2 More Australia Housing - Australian Governor of Australia Reserve Bank - "Estimates suggest the net effect is that mortgage payments for new buyers would be higher for about two years as a result of higher interest rates," said Kearns. - READ SLOWLY -  - "But after that, the declines in housing prices and mortgage size begin to dominate," he added. "It suggests that because higher interest rates reduce housing prices and so mortgage sizes, mortgage payments for new borrowers could ultimately be lower than if interest rates had not increased." When do we all realize that governments are all about Real Estate and Oil/Energy??? China Housing - China injecting $$$$ into construction projects to help boost domestic consumption. - Meanwhile: prices extended their year-on-year contraction for the fourth month in August, with prices last month falling 1.3%, the fastest annual pace in seven years, and suggesting longer-term homebuyer aversion. - Authorities have taken steps to prop up the sector this year, including relaxations on home purchases, smaller downpayments, cuts in mortgage interest rates, and a bigger reduction in the selling price of homes US GDP Outlook - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its US economic growth estimates for 2023 after recently boosting its predictions for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. - US gross domestic product will increase 1.1% in 2023, economists including Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Friday, compared with a forecast of 1.5% previously. The projection for 2022 was left unchanged at 0%. - Goldman raised its federal funds rate forecast by 75 basis points over the last two weeks for a terminal rate forecast of 4% to 4.25% by the end of 2022. - Goldman also raised forecasts for the unemployment rate to reflect the lower growth, saying it will be about 3.7% by end-2022, compared with a call for 3.6% previously. It will rise to 4.1% by the end of 2023 versus 3.8% previously, and to 4.2% by end-2024 compared with a prior estimate of 4%. More Bad - Ford Motor on Monday warned investors that the company expects to incur $1 billion more in costs than previously expected during the third quarter due to supply chain issues. - The company, however, said it still expects 2022 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, but said the supply chain problems have resulted in parts shortages affecting roughly 40,000 to 45,000 vehicles that haven't been able to reach dealers. Crypto - The Ethereum blockchain has undergone a major software upgrade, drastically reducing its energy usage - The new system will use 99.95% less energy, according to the Ethereum Foundation. The upgrade, which changes how transactions occur and how ether tokens are created, could give Ethereum a major advantage as it seeks to surpass rival blockchain bitcoin - With the software upgrade, Ethereum has moved from a "proof of work" system, in which energy-hungry computers validate transactions by solving complex maths problems, to a "proof of stake" system, where individuals and companies act as validators, using their ether as collateral, to win newly created tokens - Not same power usage - possible NVDA as less need for powerful GPUs ? Playing Defense - Adobe Inc said it would buy online design startup Figma for about $20 billion to expand its portfolio of collaboration-focused platforms geared for the hybrid-work era. - FIGMA has $400 million  in annual revenue. --- ADBE investors not pleased (Stock was down 15% in reaction) What ?? - The British pound dropped below $1.14 for the first time since 1985 as a combination of dollar strength and recession warnings weighed on the U.K.’s currency. - The World Bank on Thursday warned of a global recession in 2023 and said central bank hiking may not be enough to bring down inflation. More Currency - Intervention Time - Japan - It is more than a decade since Japan intervened directly in the foreign exchange market and more than two decades since it intervened to support its currency , which it last did during the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to 1998. Yen Intervention Fake Meat Side effect? - Beyond Meat COO Doug Ramsey arrested for allegedly biting man's nose after Arkansas college football game - Ramsey, 53, was charged with terroristic threatening and third-degree battery and booked in the Washington County jail on Saturday evening. - Ramsey allegedly punched through the back windshield of a Subaru after it made contact with the front tire of Ramsey's car. The Subaru owner then got out of his car, and Ramsey allegedly started punching him and bit his nose, "ripping the flesh on the tip of the nose," according to the report. The victim and a witness also alleged that Ramsey told the Subaru owner he would kill him. One More For The Road - European factories are shutting down lines due to high electricity bills - Will have to get more info on this as it developes 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THR WINNER FOR CTP for Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

1hr

21 Sep 2022

Rank #2

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DHUnplugged #622: Box The Whites

Put away the white pants – box up the white shoes – summer is over. Deeply Oversold – Quick bounce potential is high (Happened last week and today already 3 times) New study on talking to plants PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from NOLA - FSU/LSU game - unreal weekend - Putting away the White pants and shoes - post Labor Day - Europe is in trouble - Russia playing hardball with energy flows - Germany rethinking Nuclear energy - New study on talking to plants - Reminder of CTP that is closing for entries Friday Market Update - Deeply Oversold - Bounce Potential High (Happened last week and today already) --- Seems that 3.3% 10Yr is near-term cap? - QQQ bounce from low in June to high 23%, now eroded to 8% - Turmoil at BBBY - China lockdowns and OPEC production cuts - Apple Sept 7th launch event BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - TEASE REALLY - TriggerCharts Indicators - New Distribution, New platforms..! NOW TRADINGVIEW.. Launch 1st week of September - Tradestation, eSignal, TradingView! RSS Feed - FIXED Yields - 10yr Treasury at June Highs - 3.342% Market/Sectors Update Sectors - YTD When the going get tough - Throw out all Climate concerns - Germany keeping 2 nuclear power plans active (Uranium URA?) - Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear plants available for power production as part of a reserve scheme recommended by power transmission grid operators (TSOs) that stress-tested electricity supply - Economy minister Robert Habeck said the risks of nuclear technology mandated holding on to the exit plan but restrictions in Russian gas deliveries justified the reserve measure. Oil Production - OPEC cannot seem to make up its mind - a group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers on Monday agreed on a small output cut from next month, surprising energy markets at a time of considerable turmoil. - OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an influential energy alliance known as OPEC+, decided to cut production targets by about 100,000 barrels per day from October. - Oil spiked then dropped after the news (Economic realities and China lockdowns) Russia Playing Hardball - On Friday, Russian energy supplier Gazprom said it would not resume its supply of natural gas to Germany through the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline, blaming a malfunctioning turbine. - The euro fell below 99 cents for the first time in 20 years Monday, after Russia said it would shut off its main gas supply pipeline to Europe indefinitely. - The EU's common currency was trading around 0.9915 versus the dollar by 1:00 p.m. London time (8:00 a.m. ET), having climbed off lows of $0.9881 hit earlier in the day. - The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, also breached a fresh two-decade high as the British pound slid on fears over energy supply and European economic growth. Last Item - Looking at European Gas prices - just to be clear - Lower gas flows from Russia ahead of and following its February invasion of Ukraine have already pushed up European prices by nearly 400% over the past year, sending electricity costs soaring. Crude Oil Futures California Rolling Blackouts? - Highest rates since 2020 - Potential for rotating outages to conserve --- How does this work for Electric cars? Supposed to be cheaper alternative China Lockdown - Some districts of China's southern tech hub Shenzhen extended curbs on public activities, dining out and entertainment venues on Friday, but city officials stopped short of a full lockdown - Most of Shenzhen's nearly 18 million residents are now under COVID controls amid the city's most serious outbreak since spring. - Restrictions in the central business district of Futian and Longhua, home to a major campus of Apple iPhone assembler Foxconn, have been extended until Sunday, while residents in several areas across the city were asked to work from home if possible. - These moves hurt global trade/oil prices and global growth outlook - China's Chengdu lockdown is ongoing Big Fines for Social Media - Ireland's data privacy regulator has agreed to levy a record fine of 405 million euros ($402 million) against social network Instagram following an investigation into its handling of children's data, a spokesperson for the watchdog said. - Appeal in progress| - The investigation, which started in 2020, focused on child users between the ages of 13 and 17 who were allowed to operate business accounts, which facilitated the publication of the user's phone number and/or email address. - WhatsApp was last year fined a record 225 million euros for failing to conform with EU data rules in 2018. Update - CVS - Signify - CVS Health Corp on Monday agreed to buy home healthcare services company Signify Health for about $8 billion in cash, a move that will enable one of the largest U.S. healthcare companies to provide further care management to patients in their homes. BBBY Update - Bed Bath & Beyond on Sunday confirmed that its Chief Financial Officer Gustavo Arnal died over the weekend, after police had said earlier that Arnal fell to his death. - Arnal, 52, fell Friday afternoon from a building in downtown Manhattan, according to police. The iconic skyscraper, known locally as the "Jenga Tower" or the "Jenga Building," has more than 50 floors of uniquely stacked apartments. - Deemed a Suicide - Days after company announcing plans to close 150 stores of its "lower producing" namesake stores. The New Jersey-based retailer also said it would be cutting 20% of its staff and added that it had secured more than $500 million in new financing - Plenty of other speculation related to lawsuits claiming pump/dump scheme involving Ryan Cohen and Arnal. Economic Update - Part of the problem is that eco data in US remains "good" - Unemployment moves from 3.5% to 3.7% - Avg Hourly Earnings 0.3% vs 0.4% expected - Non-Farm payrolls +315k - ISM Services (Non Manufacturing) 56.9 (good expansion) - Coming Up this week - Beige Book, Initial Claims, Consumer Credit, Wholesale Inventories (light) New Rules - Disclosure - U.S.-listed companies will need to disclose how the pay of their top executives squares with overall company performance. - In addition, U.S.-listed companies will have to provide a clear description of the relationship between each financial performance measure and CEO pay versus other named executives, the SEC said in its release. - The measure will make it easier for shareholders to assess a publicly traded company’s decision-making with respect to executive compensation policies--a long-recognized value to investors, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in a statement. - The measure comes amid a push by President Joe Biden's administration to force listed companies to review working conditions, pay equity, hiring and retention policies. PLANTS! - Nearly half, 48%, of people surveyed by Trees.com admitted that they talk to the leafy creatures. - And a majority of those individuals, 62%, believe it has helped their mental health. - The survey polled 1,250 people, asking if, why and how often they talk to their plants. - A majority say they only talk to their houseplants. However, 62% talk to outdoor plants and 37% talk to the trees they walk by on the street. - And over a fifth of participants, 27.67%, say they've hugged a plant and even 22.5% have kissed one. - Horticultural therapy allows individuals to process challenges that they're facing in their own lives by shifting their focus to being in control of something that is more predictable Apple Event (Tomorrow at 1PM ET) - Does it matter anymore? - In person mix with recorded  videos ---- Have not done in-person live since 2019 - Apple iPhone 14 announcement - Watch 8 -- What will pricing look like? -- Subscription plan for iPhone hardware? Bonus - E-cigarette maker Juul Labs Inc has agreed to pay $438.5 million to settle claims by 34 U.S. states and territories that it downplayed its products' risks and targeted underage buyers, several states announced Tuesday. - As part of the settlement, Juul has agreed to refrain from some kinds of marketing, including the use of cartoons, product placement and depictions of users under 35. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? CTP for Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

1hr 1min

7 Sep 2022

Rank #3

Podcast cover

DHUnplugged #621: PAIN AHEAD

PAIN – that is what he said…. PAIN! RSS feed gone wild. It looks like it is fixed. Markets held up nicely – but end of the month, low volume and just trader exhaustion seemed to win over. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Worst Day in months - Powell invokes Volker  - PAIN AHEAD - $10,000 off Student Debt Sale - RSS Feed - something not right with DHUnplugged - Pushed show on Fedd 5 times last week. - Need a CTP Stock! - Inflation HOT is baseball Card Market! Market Update - HOT MESS - Now What? - -  Europe poised for more problems with Russian Oil - ECB next in line to start hiking rates - EVs Stil hot News - Ford up - 50-Day MA - S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, touch and bump Monday BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - TEASE REALLY - TriggerCharts Indicators - New Distribution, New platforms..! NOW TRADING VIEW.. Launch 1st week of September - Tradestation, eSignal, TradingView! RSS Feed Gone Wild! - Pushed 3-4 DHUnplugged. Something with Site code - Maybe... We shall see tonight. Salesforce Story - Credit Card expiration - thought I updated - Billing due 8/14 - 8/29 get a threatening email and warning about pulling forward contract and lock out - 8/29 - LOCKED OUT - can't even get to the billing area to see what is up... - Threatening email - no direct way to contact --- Your account with Salesforce has an outstanding balance of USD*. If this balance is not settled by 08-Sep-2022, your account will be placed with a third party collection agency. If payment is received by Salesforce after this date, payment for the full contract value will be required before your account can be reactivated and for any and all collection costs incurred by Salesforce including the fee for placing the account. We are obligated to pursue the entire unpaid contract value of any and all agreements between Salesforce and Horowitz & Co.  We would like to avoid these measures; however, we feel we have no choice but to take these steps. Salesforce will have no obligation to maintain or provide your data after the time specified in your Master Subscription Agreement, and will thereafter delete or destroy all copies of your data in our systems. You may request a data export within the time period set forth in the Documentation by logging a support case. Start with Inflation Item - "Gasoline futures have fallen to new trend lows this morning, now printing lowest levels in over 6 months" - Down 32% from high Gas Futures Technicals ! - 50 DMA - holds for all major indices after Friday's breakdown - 200-day massive resistance - - Institutional - 1st line of support (50 Day) ---- But 50 Day below 200 day - Not good set up ---- One good thing - 50 Day slightly rising - End of Month, light volume, big sell-off - Needs to Hold and rebound if any chance Powell Speech - Says the word Pain - Invokes comment about Volker - Essentially walks back any thought that they are going to slow the rate hikes White House Prepping - Says they think employment numbers may be soft on Friday - or softening... - On that note - SNAP laying off  20% of staff - Remember all those calls for : "Nobody teaches finance in school?" - THIS IS WHY WE GET COMPANIES THAT THIK THEY CN RUN WITH CRAP FINANCIALS Jackson Hole Reality Check - Awakening - Central banks spent decades building their credibility on inflation fighting skills and losing this battle could shake the foundations of modern monetary policy. - - "The longer inflation stays high, the greater the risk that the public will lose confidence in our determination and ability to preserve purchasing power." (ECB Member) - "Even if we enter a recession, we have basically little choice but to continue our policy path," Schnabel said. "If there were a deanchoring of inflation expectations, the effect on the economy would be even worse." ECB - Jackson Hole - European Central Bank policymakers made the case on Saturday for a large interest rate hike next month as inflation remains uncomfortably high and the public may be losing trust in the bank's inflation-fighting credentials. - becoming entrenched in expectations are uncomfortably high," Schnabel said. "In this environment, central banks need to act forcefully." - Let's discuss - massive energy problem and hiking aggressively into it? Speaking of Energy - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia could slash October prices for most crude grades it sells to Asia after a plunge in spot premiums as tepid fuel demand and increasing arbitrage cargoes put pressure on oil prices in the region. - ON THE OTHER HAND - --- Last week Saudi and OPEC said that they want to limit supply to much of the world as proices are dropping. More Energy - The U.S. Energy Secretary urged domestic oil refiners this month to not further increase exports of fuels like gasoline and diesel, adding that the Biden administration may need to consider taking action if the plants do not build inventories. - "Given the historic level of U.S. refined product exports, I again urge you to focus in the near term on building inventories in the United States, rather than selling down current stocks and further increasing exports," Granholm said in the letter sent to refiners, a copy of which was seen by Reuters. - WAIT WHAT? The Biden Admin is responsible for 1 million barrels per day China Update - Going from Bad to Worse - Chinese technology giants are coming off the back of their worst quarter of growth in history as a big slowdown in the world's second-largest economy, stoked by Beijing's strict Covid policy - Retail sales decreased year-over year in April and May due to the resurgence of Covid-19 in Shanghai and other major cities, and has slowly recovered in June - AND - China's technology sector continues to contend with a much stricter regulatory environment. Over the past two years, China has introduced tougher policy in areas from gaming to data protection. - WORST OVER- ? Keep Reading ... Keep Reading - Authorities in China's southern city of Shenzhen shut the world's largest electronics market of Huaqiangbei and suspended service at 24 subway stations on Monday in a bid to curb an outbreak of COVID-19. - Subway services at 24 stations in the central districts of Futian and Luohu were also halted, according to official local media. China - Worst Not Over - Profits at China's industrial firms sank in July, reversing previous gains as fresh COVID-19 curbs dragged down demand and squeezed factory margins, while power shortages due to heatwaves threatened production. - Profits at China's industrial firms fell 1.1% in January-July from a year earlier, wiping out the 1.0% growth logged during the first six months, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday. Lighter Note - A mint condition Mickey Mantle baseball card sold for $12.6 million Sunday, blasting into the record books as the most ever paid for sports memorabilia in a market that has grown exponentially more lucrative in recent years. - The rare Mantle card eclipsed the record just posted a few months ago — $9.3 million for the jersey worn by Diego Maradona when he scored the contentious “Hand of God” goal in soccer's 1986 World Cup. Is this a Good Idea? - The Biden administration plans to ask the U.S. Congress to approve an estimated $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including 60 anti-ship missiles and 100 air-to-air missiles, Housing Market --Home Partners of America, the single-family landlord owned by Blackstone Inc., will stop buying homes in 38 US cities, becoming the latest institutional investor to back away from an overheated housing market. - Identical to Car Lease... ---- Fiind a Home, They Buy it and lease back to you, At end you can renew, or buy, or walk away - Lease to Purchase Homes - Check it out - https://www.homepartners.com/ Twitter - Received another "NO THANKS - PLEASE CANCEL" from Elon Musk - Is this going to happen? Tech - Sea Change or One Off? - Dell Technologies Inc posted its slowest revenue growth in six quarters on Thursday as a surge in the dollar and COVID-19 flare-ups in major market China offset a jump in its enterprise-focused business. - The greenback surge has this year eaten into the earnings of technology firms from Microsoft Inc to Apple Inc , compounding pressure from a drop in consumer spending on electronics such as personal computers and smartphones. - Dell's revenue rose 9% to $26.43 billion in the quarter to July 29 and was roughly in line with market expectations, according to Refinitiv data. - Consumer revenue fell 9%, echoing weakness seen at Intel Corp and Lenovo Group as demand weakened after a pandemic-fueled boom and decades-high inflation prompted consumers to prioritize essentials. (PULL FORWARD) 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing the CTP for Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ** Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

1hr 2mins

31 Aug 2022

Rank #4

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DHUnplugged #620 – Update 3

Update3 – Push to Podcast Apps

57mins

29 Aug 2022

Rank #5

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DHUnplugged #619: Dire Warnings

Up, Up and Away. When everyone thinks there is more downside, this happens. China economics are weak and probably getting weaker. Peter Schiff and others warn about what will come next… Dire predictions and buoyant markets – with a side of short squeeze. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ESG Finally Getting a Probe - Big Week for Retail (Earnings) - Peloton - Restructuring and  changing prices again - Can't keep this market down - well, at least for a while.. Market Update - Fed continues to press for higher rates - China issues a surprise rate cut (minor) - The Bear Bounce? New Rally - Lows are In? - China's Pain is Oil's Pain - OH - The Squeeze is On! - But Still seeing Dire Warnings about what is to come... - Musk comes Tweets he is buying.. At 8:01PM COMING UP THIS WEEK ON TDI Podcast - Peter Schiff Big Calls - Peter Schiff doesn’t think the Fed can beat the current inflationary pressure America is dealing with today. “Not only can’t the Fed win a fight against inflation without causing a recession, it can’t do so without causing a far worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008,” - “Worse still, a war against inflation can’t be won if there are any bailouts or stimulus to ease the pain,” Where to begin this week?https://www.dhunplugged.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/CAPE_20220816.jpg Now this is interesting - Market Valuation... CAPE RATIO The SQUEEEEEZE - Here we go again - low-quality, High Short-interest stocks getting the love - BBBY up 200% past couple weeks, 65% TODAY! - Party City up 27% TODAY - FUBOTV, Blue Apron, My Size, ThredUp, Cruise Lines (after secondary offerings), GameStop on the move too.... - What does this mean? Markets - So many overbought readings - Multi-Month Highs - Valuations? - What is the great spirit that is moving things - why so bullish all of a sudden? ELON! - 8:01PM (After hours markets closed) - - "Also, I’m buying Manchester United ur welcome" --- Is he serious? News reports are unclear - no one knows for sure what this is all about Earnings - Home Depot - beats (significantly lowered expectations - low bar) ---- Earnings Growth 8% YoY, Revenue 6.5% ------Higher product prices drove average spending per transaction up more than 9%, even as customer transactions at its stores dropped 3%, helping the company record its highest ever quarterly sales and earnings. - Walmart - same story as Home Depot (management did not downgrade any further this time) ---- Earnings - slightly lower than 1-year ago, revenue growth 8.4% - Shoppers are shopping, looks like they are buying less higher priced products is the story WMT Beat Lowered Earnings Estimates WMT Estimates Housing - Stinks - The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 6 points to 49 this month, its eighth straight monthly decline. - The index has not been in negative territory since a very brief plunge at the start of the Covid pandemic. Before that, it hadn't been negative since June 2014. - Regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder confidence in the Northeast fell 9 points to 56, and dropped 3 points in the Midwest to 49. In the South it fell 7 points to 63, and in the West, where home prices are highest, it declined 11 points to 51. - The biggest hurdle for buyers right now is affordability Peleton - Peloton Interactive Inc said on Friday it would cut jobs, shut stores and raise prices on its exercise equipment including treadmills and top-end bikes as it undertakes a company-wide revamp to shore up its revenue and improve cash flow. - Shifting final mile delivery to third-party logistics providers will reduce per-product delivery costs by up to 50% - The company is also raising prices of its Bike+ and Tread machines in five markets, including the United States and Canada - The company, which lowered the prices for its products earlier this year, said it would now raise prices by $500 to $2,495 on Bike+ and by $800 to $3,495 on Tread in the United States. More Peloton - A U.S. judge on Thursday said Peloton Interactive Inc must face a proposed class action lawsuit accusing the bike and treadmill maker of misleading customers about the "ever-growing" size of its library of on-demand fitness classes. - The lawsuit stemmed from Peloton's March 2019 decision to purge more than half of its estimated 12,000 on-demand classes, after music publishers sued the company for using copyrighted songs in its workout videos without proper licensing. ESG Hoo-Hah - US regulators are expanding their crackdown on misleading labels of investment products with a probe focused on whether managers of funds that are marketed as sustainable are trading away their right to vote on environmental, social and governance issues. - For the past several months, Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement lawyers have been peppering firms offering ESG funds with queries, including how they lend out their shares and whether they recall them before corporate elections, according to four people with knowledge of the matter. The practice lets asset managers earn fees that benefit investors, but it can also impact the ability to cast ballots. China - Feeling the Pain - China's economy unexpectedly slowed in July, with activity indicators from industrial output to retail sales missing forecasts by large margins - Industrial output grew 3.8% in July from a year earlier, after expanding 3.9% in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. That compared with a 4.6% increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. - 19% unemployment for 16-24 yr old (record high) - Growth in factory output in July slowed to 3.8% over a year ago, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Growth in consumer spending fell to 2.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from June. - Sales of housing and other commercial real estate fell 28.8% from a year earlier. - The People’s Bank of China cut its rate on a one-year loan to 2.75% from 2.85% and injected an extra 400 billion yuan ($60 billion) into lending markets after growth in factory output and retail sales weakened in July and home sales fell by double digits. More China - PANIC! - Mayhem unfolded in an Ikea in Shanghai as health authorities tried to lock down the store on Saturday and quarantine those on site after learning someone who had been in contact with a Covid-19 patient had visited. - News of the flash shut down sent shoppers fleeing and screaming in an effort to get out of the building before the doors were locked, videos on social media showed. COVID - Britain has become the first country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine that targets both the original and Omicron variant of the virus. - The the UK medicines regulator (MHRA) approved the so-called bivalent vaccine made by U.S. drug company Moderna as a booster for adults. Meanwhile - CDC changes COVID protocols in US. Retail Earnings - Home Depot - Coming Up: TJX, TGT, WMT, LOWES, ROST Where Are They Moving? - American earnings more than $200,000 are moving to these states 2020 Study Final: Florida: 20,263 Texas: 5,356 Arizona: 5,268 North Carolina: 4,713 South Carolina: 3,967 Tennessee: 2,743 Colorado: 2,624 Nevada: 2,331 Idaho: 2,055 Utah: 1,503 Jaime Dimon - Walking It Back - Still Unhappy - Dimon reportedly said on a client call last week that the economy was "strong" but "storm clouds" were on the horizon, including federal monetary policies, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and rising oil prices. (Better than a Hurricane!) - "Consumers' balance sheets are in good shape," he said. "Businesses are equally in good shape. When you forecast, you have to think differently. It is a bad mistake to say, 'Here is my single-point forecast.'" - Dimon has estimated the chances of a "soft landing" to be about 10% and the probability of a "harder landing" or "mild recession" to be closer to 20 to 30%. He also reportedly estimated a 20- to 30% chance of a "harder recession" and a 20- to 30% chance of "something worse." The Concorde II? Here comes BOOM - Concorde retired in 2003 (Cruised at Mach 2.04) - Overture will run on 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as it flies at Mach 1.7 over the ocean, shuttling between 68-80 passengers up to nearly 5,000 miles. - So far, Boom says two airlines and the United States Air Force have signed on to purchase Overture airlines. - United Airlines says it will buy 15 aircraft once safety, operating and safety requirements are met, with options to purchase 35 more. (Mach 1.7) - NYC to London - 3 hours - Los Angeles to Sydney - 8 hours - Seattle to Tokyo - 4.5 hours Drugs - Drugmakers are launching new medicines at record-high prices this year, a Reuters analysis has found, highlighting their pricing power even as Congress moves to cut the $500 billion-plus annual bill for prescription drugs in the United States. - The median annual price of 13 novel drugs approved for chronic conditions by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration so far this year is $257,000, Reuters found. Big Question::::: - Bear Market Bounce or New Bull Market? - DJIA off 7% YTD, NASDAQ off 16% - UP FROM LOWS DJIA   15%  NASDAQ +25%    (Over 60 day Period) Inflation Reduction Act - Will it help fight inflation? If so -= estimate on how long it will take? - YEARS AND YEARS! 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

59mins

17 Aug 2022

Rank #6

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DHUnplugged #618: Backward-Walkers

Markets just don’t know how to read the current backdrop – so many crosscurrents. Fed speakers continue to press on with their high hopes for higher rates – walking it back Buyback frenzy coming? Softbank – horrible, simply horrible. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - 8/8 - Happy Anniversary Mimi! - How You Like a Nice Warm Short Squeeze? ---- Highest Short Interest Getting BID BIGLY | - OLD MEME Stocks on fire - then cool off - Big YUGE moves on last week's picks - Recession? Employment Says: We Ain't Got No Stinking Recession Market Update - Credit Expanding - eating through savings? - Charts making the rounds.... - CPI coming Wednesday, PPI Thursday - Amazon acquiring this company - need delve deep - An interesting acquisition announcement today.. - Layoffs in Techland AND expense cuts Employment - HOT! - 500k+ added to the payrolls. - 3.5% Unemp Rate - Average Hourly Earnings +5% ! Post Employment Numbers - WALK IT BACK - FED parade of backwalkers continue - that is what they are Backward Walkers - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday she supports the central bank's recent big interest rate increases and thinks they are likely to continue until inflation is subdued. -- "My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way" ---- Very consistent with all of the other Backward-Walking Fed speakers Spending Bill -  Summary: The climate, healthcare and tax bill passed by the U.S. Senate over the weekend could shave corporate earnings slightly and make companies pull forward their share repurchase plans, while giving a boost to some sectors like electric vehicle makers, biofuel and solar energy - The $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act bill would impose a new excise tax on stock buybacks and a minimum 15% tax on corporations. - "The number one thing that stands out is that you're going to see an acceleration of buybacks before the end of this year," said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member of New York-based Great Hill Capital. "Companies would rather not pay that tax ... They have this window, and you can be assured they're going to take advantage of it." Pfizer - New Income Source - Pfizer Inc will buy blood disorder drugmaker Global Blood Therapeutics in a $5.4 billion deal, as it looks to boost its pipeline to combat a potential slowdown in COVID product demand that analysts anticipate from falling cases. - GBT makes Oxbryta which was first approved in 2019 to treat sickle cell disease among patients aged 12 years or older. - Sickle Cell Tech layoffs - Several companies have either discussed layoffs or stop hire mandates - Microsoft is asking managers to reduce employee expenses on business travel and outside training, according to WSJ Credit Card Debt - Americans have opened 233 million credit card accounts since April, the largest increase since 2008. - Credit card debt is up 13% since April, the largest increase since 2001. - Total credit card debt is set to cross $1 trillion for the first time ever. - "Is the bubble is expanding?" - The Kobeissi Letter HOT Chart - Everyone is doing these.... - Comparing 2006-2009 to today (markets) Dreaded DJIA Chart Another one.... Another One Berkshire - good and bad - Operating earnings - It marked a 38.8% increase from the same quarter a year ago. - However, the company posted a $53 billion loss on its investments during the quarter. ----- Buffet again asked investors to not focus on the quarterly fluctuations in its equity investments. - - "The amount of investment gains/losses in any given quarter is usually meaningless and delivers figures for net earnings per share that can be extremely misleading to investors who have little or no knowledge of accounting rules," Berkshire said in a statement. - Berkshire said it spent approximately $1 billion in share repurchases during the second quarter, bringing the six-month total to $4.2 billion. ELON - Still in the news - Elon Musk on Saturday challenged Twitter Inc Chief Executive Officer Parag Agrawal to a public debate about the percentage of bots on the social media platform. - Uhhhhh - isn't that what is going on? - "Let him prove to the public that Twitter has <5% fake or spam daily users!," Musk said in a tweet. - Big issue moving forward is wheter the banks will fund this deal. --- If they do fund, way overpriced. If they do not fund - back dealings and other companies may look elsewhere for deal funding. Amazon - BUYING - Spying? - Amazon is acquiring iRobot for $61 a share, an all-cash deal that values the Roomba maker at $1.7 billion, the companies announced Friday. - Interesting acquisition - perhaps one of the bigger sellers on Amazon - HOWEVER - some discussion about they real reason that they are buying this company is so that they can MAP YOUR HOUSE - Amazon with Alexa, Ring and Eero is already in American homes. Adding iRobot’s mapping technology will further its understanding of what takes place in those households. - A Bloomberg article suggests that Amazon may seek  to monetize the data to sell to marketers. “The size of your house is a pretty good proxy for your wealth. A floor covered in toys means you likely have kids. A household without much furniture is a household to which you can try to sell more furniture. This is all useful intel for a company such as Amazon which, you may have noticed, is in the business of selling stuff.” More Amazon -- The Lollipop Hustle - Dum-Dums (Spangler Candy Company) cheaper on Amazon through 3rd party than direct. ---- DIVERTING (Getting order, buy from other outlets and have it shipped directly) --- SO, if products can be purchased somewhere at lover price - why is this a problem? Isn't this the whole point of the 3rd parties? -------- IF you do not want your products sold for less, don't sell them for less to others. From MonkeyPox to Polio?? - Hundreds of other people could have polio after an adult in a suburb of New York City caught the virus and suffered paralysis last month, the state's top health official said this week. - New York State Health Commissioner Mary Bassett warned that the confirmed polio case in an unvaccinated adult, coupled with the detection of the virus in sewage outside the nation's largest city could, indicate a bigger outbreak is underway. ------ Can we discuss sewage testing? - The U.S. was declared polio free in 1979 and a case had not originated in the country since then, but travelers have occasionally brought the virus into the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Some earnings news - Upstart misses by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus --- Previously guided down last month and already leaking - Nvidia - Pre-announced ahead of 8/24 earnings - warned its Q2 revenue will be $6.7 billion versus its prior outlook of $8.10 billion due primarily to a lower sell-in of gaming products. Lemonade from Lemons - French drought creating a big win for SALT Farmers - Guerande's snow-white Fleur de Sel (‘flower of salt’), which crystallizes on the water's surface, is one of the finer salts on world markets, retailing in the United States at over $100 a kilogram ($40 per pound) - Fleur de sel or flor de sal is a salt that forms as a thin, delicate crust on the surface of seawater as it evaporates. Fleur de sel has been collected since ancient times, and was traditionally used as a purgative and salve. It is now used as a finishing salt to flavor and garnish food Deal Time - AppLovin has submitted a compelling non-binding proposal to the Board of Directors of Unity Software (U) to combine AppLovin with Unity in a transaction where each outstanding share of Unity common stock would be exchanged for 1.152 shares of AppLovin Class A voting common stock and 0.314 shares of AppLovin Class C non-voting common stock. - Could be some anti-trust and it is an all stock deal - Has not been agreed to yet by both parties - Would expect Unity to want more - but Applovin pockets not too deep Crytpo - Hack Attack - Thieves stole an estimated $190 million from U.S. crypto firm Nomad last week. - It was the seventh hack of 2022 to target an increasingly important cog in the crypto machine: Blockchain "bridges" - strings of code that help move crypto coins between different applications. - So far this year, hackers have stolen crypto worth some $1.2 billion from bridges - Perhaps start with solid code/hack proof and then build the bridge (seems like bridge built from top down) Softbank - Vision Fund - Losing all sorts of money - In fact - largest loss ever. - SoftBank’s quarterly losses, worth around 3.2 trillion yen ($24.5 billion), were its largest in history - took back almost all gains made since 2017 Vision Fund Cumulative Gains 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

56mins

10 Aug 2022

Rank #7

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DHUnplugged #617: MEME Stonks Part 2

Markets are getting a bit crazy to the upside now… Clearly the short squeeze gang is on the prowl. Bifurcation – rates separating from inflation concerns. Global economies are getting worse as higher costs are really crimping consumers. A hard look at what is happening around the world. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Biden had COVID again (How does that happen actually?) - Market KRI +4 (3 days with cluster formation) - A GIGANTIC walk-back by the Fed - More earnings this week - winners and losers - STONKS - Say it ... STONKS Market Update - JUMPIN' July - big finish| - On not so great news... GDP -0.9% - back to back negative quarters. - China looking bleak - could mean more stimulative measures? - Hong Kong GDP shrank - German manufacturing - you guessed it.... - Home prices in Australia - whooops... ----- Fed walking it back - sending out the DOVES to speak HAWKISH Weird Chart - Odd Curve Odd Chart ABOVE - WHY? - Expectations are that we are near or in a recession - Further expectations that the Fed will raise then have to cut - sometime perhaps in 2023 - Bond being bought - Recession fears outweigh rate hike fears - US still bringing in foreign money (safety play) - NO CONFIDENCE IN ADMINISTRATION Let's look at Global ECO - Hong Kong's economy contracted 1.4% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, advance government data showed on Monday, as exports and investments remained sluggish, and COVID-19 weighed on a wide range of economic activity. - Germany's manufacturing sector contracted in July for the first time in over two years, hurt by a deepening slump in new orders that darkens the outlook for Europe's largest economy - - - S&P Global's final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, fell to 49.3 from 52.0 in June - Australian home prices slid for a third month in July and the pace quickened as Sydney suffered its worst decline in almost 40 years amid rising borrowing costs and a cost-of-living crisis. (Prices were still 8.0% higher for the year reflecting huge gains made over 2021 and early 2022.) - China's factory activity contracted unexpectedly in July after bouncing back from COVID-19 lockdowns in the prior month, as fresh virus flare-ups and a darkening global outlook weighed on demand, an official survey showed. - - - The official manufacturing purchasing managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49 in July, down from 50.2 in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Sunday. - Pakistan imports fell by more than a third in July after a ban on non-essentials, the finance minister said on Sunday, adding the improved trade situation will reduce pressure on the struggling rupee. - - - July imports fell to $5 billion, down 35% from June's record monthly high of $7.7 billion -- South Korea's consumer inflation sped up to a nearly 24-year high in July Meanwhile - US Central Bank DOVE - Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the Fed had more work to do in trying to control price increases. - “I’m surprised by markets’ interpretation,” Mr. Kashkari said in an interview. “The committee is united in our determination to get inflation back down to 2 percent, and I think we’re going to continue to do what we need to do until we are convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2 percent — and we are a long way away from that.” - ALSO: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voting FOMC member) says inflation is not going to come down quickly; she is seeing "little signs" of progress on inflation; says she must see convincing evidence that inflation is coming down before stopping rate hikes Earnings - Better than Feared - Tech earnings boosted shares last week as they did come in better in general (some not so good) - Amazon, Apple gave decent guidance. - Amazon did not see any consumer slowdown (Much different than Walmart/Target) - Match miss - down 22% - Airbnb - decent quarter - taking down stock - Starbucks conference call update: despite inflation, company sees no measurable reduction in consumer spending or trading down - PayPal rocks - buyback, activist investor involved share higher - AMD - earnings nothing too bad, but stock ran up BIG into earnings - falls after hours Earnings Amazing! - Exxon, Chevron - blowouts - Posted record revenue on Friday, bolstered by surging crude oil and natural gas prices and following similar results for European giants - Exxon outpaced its rivals with second-quarter net income of $17.9 billion, several billion dollars ahead of its previous record reached in 2012 - Exxon committed to buybacks - Companies will now have to deal with the WINDFALL tax BS.... UBER - Loss per share: $1.33 - Revenue: $8.07 billion vs. $7.39 billion estimated, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts. - Stock up 12% Best Investment EVER! - A single winning ticket for a Mega Millions lottery jackpot of $1.337 billion, the second-largest in U.S. history, was sold in Illinois - The ticket was sold at the Speedway fuel and convenience store on East Touhy Avenue in Des Plaines, Illinois, a Chicago suburb. - $780 million upfront or $42 million annually for 30 years.... WHICH?????? STONKS - ARE BACK! - HKD - Now valued over $300 Billion (15,000% gain since IPO in mid July) AMTD Digital Inc. designs and develops a digital platform to provide financial, media, content and marketing, and investment solutions. It offers digital banking and insurance technology platforms for consumers and small and medium-sized enterprises; and SpiderNet ecosystem, a platform to enhance their investor communication, investor relations, and corporate communication to enhance their valuation. The company's platform monitors portfolio companies, such as tracking of business and technology development, competitive landscape, latest technological trends, and economic risks, and financial analysis. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. AMTD Digital Inc. operates as a subsidiary of AMTD Group Company Limited. HKD AMTD - Curious Coincidence? AMTD Digital QUESTIONS!!!!!!!!!! - CFO of both companies: Mr. Ho Sum Zee - Companies related, in the ame building in Hong Kong - What is wrong with this picture More Stonks - Ford Motor's stock on Monday added to its best month since the Great Recession in 2009, signaling a significant swing for the automaker this year. - Shares of the Detroit automaker closed Monday at $15.34, up 4.4%. The gains added to the stock increasing by 31.9% in July – marking the best monthly percentage gain for Ford's shares since 127.4% in April 2009 Going APE over MonkeyPox - Global emergency?? - The governor of the State of New York Kathy Hochul late on Friday declared an emergency in the state over the continued spread of monkeypox. - Not really life threatening, but people are a bit burned by the last go round with a global pandemic... - "AT-RISK" groups... ROLEX ANYONE? - The collapse in cryptocurrencies is easing supply of the most sought after watches on the second-hand market, depressing prices for hard-to get-Patek Philippe and Rolex models. McFlation - McDonald's will increase the price of its cheeseburger by 20% in Britain, in the first price hike for the popular item in 14 years as it responds to soaring inflation. - Mc D's also raised U.S. prices by 6% last year, in line with increases at other consumer-focused companies which are facing higher inflation amid strong post-pandemic demand and supply chain disruption. OIL/GAS/EUROPE - Big trouble - seems like this is going to be a problem for a while - Scratch head: how does this end? - Crude for heat? Heating Oil? Nat Gas prices? - COLD winter in Europe Bad plan... - The U.S.emergency crude oil stockpile fell by 4.6 million barrels last weekto its lowest level since May 1985, according to the Department of Energy on Monday. - Crude held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped to 469.9 million barrels for the week ended July 29, according to DOE data, in the smallest weekly withdrawal sinceMay. All the barrels sold during the week were sour crude oil. - (U.S. President Joe Biden in March set a plan to release 1 million barrels per day (bpd) over six months from the SPR to tackle high fuel prices that have contributed to soaring inflation.) When has this happened in recent time? (modern Finance?) - Hackers drained almost $200 million in cryptocurrency from Nomad, a tool that lets users swap tokens from one blockchain to another, in yet another attack highlighting weaknesses in the decentralized finance space. - Nomad acknowledged the exploit in a tweet late Monday. - "We are aware of the incident involving the Nomad token bridge," the startup said. "We are currently investigating and will provide updates when we have them." 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

59mins

3 Aug 2022

Rank #8

Podcast cover

DHUnplugged #616: Peak Musk

Another World Health Emergency. A recession by any other name. Enough of Mr. Musk already – what else could there be anyway? Earnings and Eco coming hot and heavy. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Better vibe - markets are getting more comfortable ? - Biden has a case of Vid - MonkeyPox - Update from WHO - Are we there yet - Peak Musk ? - Recession - "Not Inevitable" - 10yr Yield 2.78%! Market Update - Big week for earnings and ECO - HUGE WEEK - Tech earnings in the spotlight - watch ad biz - Markets having a great month - Fed tomorrow can change that - but odds are they stay the course - IMF Downgrade and a remarkable housing number - BIG MOVE AFTER HOURS - MSFT, GOOG Miss - but commentary about strong demand overshadows slowdown - Chipotle moves higher on commentary about potejtial for MORE price hikes REMEMBER: Closest to the Pin - get your entry in!! BIG WEEK - A Really Big Week - This week something like 40% of S&P 500 companies are going to report this week - GDP, PCE, Durable goods, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence..... Great month so far - due for a bounce from really oversold conditions - Financials +5%, Tech +7.5%, Homebuilders +12% (even with drop in NAHB and housing market) Consumer Disc +12%, Utilities -0.20%, Bitcoin +17% (Gold and Silver DOWN) Rate Odds - Wednesday at 2PM - 77.5% of a 0.75% rate hike, 22.5% for 1.00% hike - ZERO PERCENT PROBABILITY for 0.50% Case Shiller Home Prices - May S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20.5% vs. 20.8% consensus; prior 21.2% Not Inevitable - Still trying to stick this down our throats - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. economic growth is slowing and acknowledged there was the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. economic growth is slowing and acknowledged there was the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable. BUT: - IMF's World Economic Outlook revised down; risks to the outlook 'overwhelmingly' to the downside - The baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1 percent last year to 3.2 percent in 2022, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook. - Lower growth earlier this year, reduced household purchasing power, and tighter monetary policy drove a downward revision of 1.4 percentage points in the United States. - In China, further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1.1 percentage points, with major global spillovers. - And in Europe, significant downgrades reflect spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy. - In 2023, disinflationary monetary policy is expected to bite, with global output growing by just 2.9 percent. - The risks to the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside. AND............... - CNBC Fed Survey shows 55% probability of recession over the next 12 months; expects Fed to start cutting rates next year  But, Then There is This - White House puts out a blog - "How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? " - What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data, it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year—even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter—indicates a recession. - Recession probabilities are never zero, but trends in the data through the first half of this year used to determine a recession are not indicating a downturn. - - - Interesting timing with 2Q GDP coming this week. (Thursday) Some thoughts: - SNAP had a terrible quarter and the when the stock reported results at the end of last week - shares caved in hard. - This is not the first time that advertisers pulled back and the company will really need to rethink their strategy. - The fact that advertisers are being much more cautious is a sign that there is a spending issue that could become problematic. - SNAP shares down 35% - Earnings coming this week - META, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT Walmart - Retail - Bad news - Early interim report - before earnings 8/16/2022 - Company issues upside guidance for revenue - stoked by higher prices (inflation) - Company also issues downside guidance for earnings ( margin squeeze on inflation) - - - Co issues downside guidance for Q2 (Jul), sees EPS to decline 8 to 9% yr/yr, or about $1.62-1.64, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.81 S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - - - Co issues downside guidance for FY23 (Jan), sees EPS to decline 11 to 13% yr/yr, or about $5.62-5.75, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $6.39 S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - - - Excluding divestitures, adjusted earnings per share for the full year is expected to decline 10 to 12%. MonkeyPox - WHO: The rapidly spreading monkeypox outbreak represents a global health emergency - The WHO label - a "public health emergency of international concern" - is designed to sound an alarm that a coordinated international response is needed and could unlock funding and global efforts to collaborate on sharing vaccines and treatments. - The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed 14,000 cases of monkeypox worldwide, with five deaths reported in Africa - SIGA, EBS Peak Musk???? - Enough already...... - Tesla Inc has received a second subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over its Chief Executive Elon Musk's tweets in 2018 about taking the company private, the electric automaker disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday. - Twitter saga - The Wall Street Journal said that Mr Musk was engaged in a brief affair late last year with Ms Shanahan. - - - This prompted Mr Brin to file for divorce earlier this year and ended the long friendship between the two high-profile technology billionaires. - Tesla dumps 75% of their Bitcoin - for a loss. $170 million impairment charge on losses (not sure if that is the extent of losses or just amount taken as impairment MUSK MONDAY TWEET - "The amount of attention on me has gone supernova, which super sucks. Unfortunately, even trivial articles about me generate a lot of clicks 🙁 Will try my best to be heads down focused on doing useful things for civilization." - EVEN HE KNOWS PEAK MUSK Peak Rates - or just a breather? - With all the fear over inflation - rates coming down - Yield curve still flat after 2 year - Inverted for most of curve - 2/10 negative - BUT - 10-year down from 3.5 in March to 2.80% now Some Housing numbers - U.S. existing home sales fell for a fifth straight month in June to the lowest level in two years as record-high prices and fast-rising interest rates make buying a home too expensive for a growing share of American households. - Meanwhile Homebuilders have a great month - lesson to be learned --- Fed rates more important looking ahead (higher rates is bad for homebulders) --- NAHB and confidence could be a bottom call scenario Nice or Weird? - Raising Cane's CEO Todd Graves said that he has purchased 50,000 Mega Millions tickets and promised to share the $810 million prize with all of his employees if one of the tickets hits the jackpot. - Should one the tickets win the jackpot, every employee of the fast food chain could walk away with thousands of dollars, Raising Cane's said in a news release provided to CBS News. (3,000+ employees) Something to Ponder - Natural Gas price squeeze could lead to additional switching to crude from gas. - Russia could really put the screws with delays or cut of gas pipeline and that could be problems for global crude pricing One more... - Closed Loop - some companies in parts of China will require little movement of employees or possible live and work on site. Panama - Food Costs - Getting Real - The Panamanian government announced on Monday it will regulate the price of 72 food items following weeks of angry protests and street blockades demanding the government take measures to stem the quickly rising cost of living. - "With the regulation of the 72 products, the cost of the basic food basket would decrease by 30%, a savings of more than $80," the president's office said in a statement, after the government and powerful unions, with the Catholic Church acting as a mediator, reached an agreement. 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing a New CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

58mins

27 Jul 2022

Rank #9

Podcast cover

DHUnplugged #615: Breaking Worse

Good news! Powell and Clarida cleared of any wrongdoing. That was a close one! Markets starting to rethink the doom and gloom? Earnings season colliding with rate hike worries. Mystery Chart – impressive run. Uber – terrible – not going to change their ways. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Earnings season begins this week - Mystery Chart - It is UP this year! - President Biden - No Headway during Saudi Trip - Saying goodbye to Ivana Trump - Heat Waves - How is your weather? Market Update - Reversal Alert - 0.75% < 1.00% new base and markets get excited --- If you think its a rally but it's not - It's Chiffon? (Commercial from the 70's) ---- Its not nice to fool mother nature - Bank Earnings - mixed bag. Hard to interpret due to loan loss provisions - Short Squeeze / rebalance ahead of earnings - UBER - disgusting practices - China is easing some rules - money available - How much more badder does the news have to get? - Yield Curve very inverted..... 2 year higher than 30 year... - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey revealed the lowest equity allocation since the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy and the highest cash levels since 2001. Announcing a new Closest to the Pin! Starting with Peak Pessimism - Investors slashed their exposure to risk assets to levels not seen even during the global financial crisis in a sign of full capitulation amid a “dire” economic outlook, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey. - A net 58% of fund managers said they’re taking lower than normal risks, a record that surpassed the survey’s global financial crisis levels. - Global growth and profit expectations sank to an all-time low, while recession expectations were at their highest since the pandemic-fueled slowdown in May 2020 - C A P I T U L A T I O N  -- - They are saying... Oil (2) - Oil prices near $96 $94    $99 - Bounced off support and USD weakens Coinage - Big weekend for coins - Bitcoin. ETH and others moving, 10, 20+% --- Story over weekend that Coinbase shutting down affiliate programs ---- Wild speculation that COIN could be next to be under financial pressure ----- Short Squeeze getting out of positions - why the weekend rally? Bank Earnings - No use in trying to look at headline beats/misses - Loan loss provisions down big then up big - over 1 year means that comparisons all screwed up - Generally major banks looking pretty good still - NIM good and revenues looking healthy - Concerns over economic slowdown and bad debt - co - Could be they overshot to downside - Goldman, Morgan look good - not much bad to say right now. Builder Confidence - Another story all together - We know from Redfin - prices coming down, existing homes flooding markets, sells getting worried - July NAHB Housing Market Index 55vs. 66 Briefing.com consensus; prior 67 - Builders confidence - see below - needs some discussion NAHB Mystery Chart - This stock is up this year - Well known, in DJIA - TECH! - Laggard for years... - Earnings out last night - stock not doing so good Mystery Chart More Stocks... - Single Stock ETF - Interesting concept - but not clear who this benefits. - Fees added to stocks that can be bought at low cost - Probably less volume and liquidity than the stock itself Netflix - After several quarters of horrible performance (company and stock) company about to report July 19 - Could there be a gold mine in the advertising side? - Teamed up with Microsoft - SIDEBAR: Heard someone talking about team ups/projects with MSFT - WHY? Because they are neutral and can be trusted as partner when building. (When did that happen?) - Back to adverts: If NFLX turns off the family sharing or changes and all those go ton advertisement supported - that could be genius! Bitcoin Blowup? - A 4.2 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of El Salvador shortly after 7 p.m. on Saturday (0100 GMT on Sunday), the U.S. Geological Survey said. - Tremors were felt in the capital, San Salvador, according to a Reuters witness. No deaths or damage were immediately reported. - Even with big weekend move - this has been a terrible move by El Salvador - But maximalists love it! - Maybe they supercharged a mining operation and that is what led to big coin move over weekend? Everything as a Service? - BMW announced Functions on Demand - in vehicle subscriptions - Example Heated Seats... --- But may not have paid for that option when car bought - so just one demand - "If a vehicle is initially ordered with heated seats, that option will remain fully operational for the life of the vehicle," BMW said. It clarifies, "BMW Functions on Demand on the other hand is designed to offer premium features through software upload that use data and sensors from factory option hardware already built into BMW vehicles." - People freaking out about what is next... UBER- POS - The Department of Justice filed in court today a multi-million-dollar settlement agreement with Uber Technologies to resolve a lawsuit alleging that Uber violated the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). Under the agreement, Uber will offer several million dollars in compensation to more than 65,000 Uber users who were charged discriminatory fees due to disability. - Under the two-year agreement, Uber has committed to waive wait time fees for all Uber riders who certify that they (or someone they frequently travel with) need more time to get in an Uber car because of a disability. Uber also will ensure that refunds are easily available for anyone who does not have a waiver and is charged a wait time fee because of disability. CHINA - Stimulating - Big Story - Mortgage Payment Strike --- People pissed with property sector and  not paying mortgage payments (stalled property development projects) - Chinese regulators stepped up efforts to encourage lenders to extend loans to qualified real estate projects as the beleaguered property sector faced fresh risks from a widening mortgage-payment boycott on unfinished houses. More China - China's economy contracted sharply in the second quarter while annual growth also slowed significantly, highlighting the colossal toll on activity from widespread COVID lockdowns, which jolted industrial production and consumer spending. - Gross domestic product fell 2.6% in the second quarter from the previous quarter - more than expected - For the first half of the year, GDP grew 2.5%. Yellen - They Just Can't Stop With Bad Ideas - The United States will look for every opportunity to move ahead and enact a global minimum corporate tax agreement - Yellen told reporters on Saturday that finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies reached strong consensus about many issues, including the need to address a worsening food security crisis, despite differences over Russia's war in Ukraine that prevented the leaders from issuing a joint statement. - TALK IS CHEAP, BAD DECISIONS ARE EXPENSIVE US Dollar Peak? - Seems everyone on the side of the USD continuing its upward ascent - Euro near parity, Yen screaming lower... - 95% sentiment towards bull camp - But, if we start to see some change in ECB or BOJ stance - USD could tumble ------ Follow Up - wrote that last night - already big move lower for USD after ECB hawkish comments - Good for multinationals, Gold/Silver Phew! That was a close one....(NOT) - Powell, Clarida cleared of wrongdoing in Fed trading controversy - No rules broken - all good - The report covered a period from 2019-21 when the two top-ranking officials traded stocks and funds while the central bank used monetary policy to influence financial markets. - "We did not find evidence to substantiate the allegations that former Vice Chair Clarida or you violated laws, rules, regulations, or policies related to trading activities as investigated by our office," Inspector General Mark Bialek told Powell in a letter. "Based on our findings, we are closing our investigation into the trading activities of former Vice Chair Clarida and you." 420 Stocks ... CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks" Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing a New CTP for AirBNB (ABNB) NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge! The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents. We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16) We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle Cheesy - Greece on Thursday scored a win in its fight to protect their right to the term 'Feta' as Europe's top court reprimanded Denmark for not blocking local companies from using the name for sales outside the European Union. - Greece claims feta as part of its cultural heritage because it has made the sheep and goat milk cheese for 6,000 years. CRYPTO LIMERICKS JCD Score () FED LIMERICKS JCD Score () See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

1hr 5mins

20 Jul 2022

Rank #10