Rank #1: Trump and Fed to Blame Each Other for Recession – Ep. 372
The catalyst today was more tweets from President Trump where he is expressing anger, not only at the Federal Reserve, and at the ECB and at the Bank of China, because he is accusing both Europe and China of being currency manipulators; taking advantage of us by weakening their currencies. He's saying that a weak currency gives you an advantage. It doesn't.
Strong Currency Provides Trade Advantage
When it comes to trade, it is a strong currency that gives you the advantage because trade is all about imports. How do you get more stuff for your own citizens, and the way you pay for that stuff is by exporting. But the goal is to export as little as possible and to import as much as possible. If you're a buyer, you always want to pay the least and get the most. So you pay for stuff when you export because you're using resources to produce stuff for other people. But you're not producing stuff for other people because you're charitable, you're trying to earn the money to buy stuff for yourselves that other people made.
Is Trump Firing Back?
Having a strong currency is a huge advantage because it means you can claim a greater portion of the global output. Because the dollar has been so over-valued thanks to the generosity or the stupidity of our trading partners, Americans enjoy greater consumption than what would otherwise be available to them if we were limited by our own collective production. So we actually have the advantage. But by calling out China and the ECB for deliberately weakening their currency, you would think that Trump may want to fire back.
Weakening the Dollar
Donald Trump doesn't control the Fed, but the Treasury Department can intervene in the foreign exchange markets. Maybe, if Donald Trump really believes that these other countries are deliberately weakening their currency and if he has no control over the Fed but he does have control over the U.S. Treasury, he can have the Secretary of the Treasury intervene, go into the Foreign Exchange Market and start dumping dollars, trying to drive the dollar down so that we can reclaim the advantage. At least the way he looks at it.
Rank #2: Making the Dollar Weak Again – Ep. 381
Strong Dollar Policy?
There used to be a lot of talk about the so-called Strong Dollar Policy. We had the Strong Dollar Policy when Bill Clinton was President, George Bush; I guess when Barack Obama was President, as well. I've talked about it, I've written about it in Crash Proof, How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse; I talked about it like it was the Loch Ness monster. Everybody knows about it, everybody's heard about it but no one has actually seen it.
We Like the Strong Dollar. A Strong Dollar is Good for America
We didn't actually have an official policy that constituted the strong dollar policy. It was simply talking about the strong dollar being in the national interest, and that was just the mantra that was repeated often by the Secretary of the Treasury or by the President. "We like the strong dollar. A strong dollar is good for America… and that pretty much constituted the policy.
The Trend Was Your Friend
But nonetheless, having the belief that there was some kind of hidden strong dollar policy helped to create confidence in the dollar, even in periods of time when the dollar was declining. Perhaps it would have declined even more had it not been for the belief that there was some kind of strong dollar policy. And of course, when the dollar was rising, the "strong dollar policy" really helped add fuel to the increase because after all, you were riding the policy. So the dollar was going up and that was what the U.S. government wanted, so it was all good. The trend was your friend.
Donald Trump's Weak Dollar Policy
Well, it should be obvious that Donald Trump has a weak dollar policy, whether he wants to name it or not, that's the policy. Of course, the weak dollar policy will not involve actually doing anything, just as the strong dollar policy didn't involve doing anything, but I think the rhetoric will have the same impact in that when the dollar finally starts to fall, it will fall even faster when people think it's a deliberate policy.
Rank #3: Andrew Yang Debunked: Free Stuff Is Not Freedom – Ep. 497
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Let's Debunk Andy Yang's Platform
I decided to take a little time out on my Labor Day to record a podcast debunking Democratic Presidential Candidate Andrew Yang. I've been getting a lot of emails about Yang; especially since he did the Joe Rogan Podcast about six months ago. He said a lot of things that certain people find appealing, so I've been asked to comment on him and I've seen other notes about Andy Yang and I wanted to talk about him because, number one, he is rising in the polls. He's now in sixth place among the Democratic candidates; he's polling at about 3% ant that puts him ahead of established politicians like Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, so he's gaining in popularity and I think the trend is going to continue.
Yang Rising in the Polls
The next Democratic Debate is coming up in about a week and a half and they're no longer going to have two debates; they've narrowed it down to just ten candidates and Andy Yang is one of those 10. I think as there are fewer candidates in the race, Yang is going to get more and more attention from the media and I think he is going to rise in the polls.
Attractive Among a Bunch of Democratic Socialists
To me, he is like the Bernie Sanders of this campaign. Sanders, and "Feeling the Bern"… he was popular in the 2016 campaign, mainly because he was the only alternative to Hillary Clinton, who was extremely unpopular. So, given that matchup and there was only two choices, it made it very easy for Sanders to gain a lot of support. He's having a much harder time galvanizing that support this time because people have a lot of alternatives. If you want a Democratic Socialist, there's a bunch of them to choose from.
Clearly a Smart Guy… But
But a guy like like Andy Yang, a younger guy, and clearly a smart guy. I had not watched his appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience until just yesterday. I decided to watch it, and that's the motivation for doing this podcast. Once I heard him talk about his ideas, I spent a lot of time on his website looking at a lot of things he didn't discuss with Joe Rogan. One thing is certainly clear to me: he's a smart guy. Clearly, if you gave an IQ test to all of the Democratic candidates, Yang would win.
Rank #4: Labor Laws Hurt Workers the Most – Ep. 371
On thing I talked about on the Joe Rogan podcast was a story that broke the same day of my last podcast, which I thought was very interesting. It was about Donald Trump being sued by his former personal driver, who still works for the Trump organization, by the way, he's worked there for over 25 years until Trump became President and got a tax-payer provided driver, he had to pay his own driver. I think the guy was getting a $70K/year salary, which to me seems about right.
Diver Claims He is Due Overtime
The driver sued the Trump organization because he claims that he was due overtime, and he didn't get paid overtime. Now he's worked for the Trump organization for 25 years. He has known his pay all these years and never once complained and now after 25 years he wants to use the labor laws to retroactively force the Trump organization to give him a pay hike.
Terms and Conditions of Employment
First of all, he is not an hourly employee. It's not like he is punching a clock and the organization asks him to work overtime. According to the article I read, the driver needed to be on call for Trump something like 10-11 hours a day. Maybe 55 hours a week he was on call in case Trump needed him. That does not mean he was driving all that time; he just had to be accessible to Trump. He couldn't go on a vacation or leave town, but he could watch a movie, he could read a book, he could trade stocks on the internet, he could do whatever he wanted. He had plenty of free time between times he drove for Trump. He knew exactly what the deal was and he chose to work under these conditions.
What happens in America is that employees like to go back in time and re-write the deal more favorably to them. If this driver did not like the terms of his employment, he had two options:
He could have gone to Donald Trump and said, "I'm working on call 10 hours a day - that's more than a normal 8-hour job, you're paying me $70K/year, If you want me to be on call that many hours, you need to pay me more money. Then Trump would have had two options - pay more money or find another driver.
If the driver did not like his employment conditions of that job, the compensation package, the amount of hours he had to be available, he was free to drive for somebody else.
Rank #5: Revisionist History Portends Socialist Future – Ep. 380
Elizabeth Warren unveiled her new idea in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. It is her new bill, called the Accountable Capitalism Act. Of course, I have said this before, there is no truth in advertising when it comes to legislation. Whenever Congress passes a bill, the name of the bill is generally the opposite of what the bill actually does. So if they pass a bill called, "Tax Simplification", that means that they just complicated the tax code. But nobody wants to vote for a bill that's called "Tax Complication", so you can't label it "Tax Complication" when that's what we're doing, so you label it Simplification so everybody will like it.
This is All About Socialism
That's what Elizabeth Warren is doing in her Accountable Capitalism Act. This is not about Capitalism. This is about Socialism. The idea here is that Capitalism is not accountable, and so this act is going to hold Capitalism accountable. In reality, capitalism holds everybody accountable. Under a Capitalist system, everybody is accountable for their own actions. If you screw up, then you have to suffer the consequences. If you make a mistake, it's on you. If your business fails, there's not bail-out.
Capitalism is the Ultimate in Accountability
So Capitalism is the ultimate in accountability. It's fair and everybody is held accountable for their own decisions and their own actions. What Elizabeth Warren wants to do is to take that accountability away. She wants to have the government get in there and take away the accountability inherent in the Capitalist system.
The Socialist Un-Accountability Act
Not only is the act mislabeled, it is actually the Socialist Un-Accountability Act. It wants to take people who would normally be accountable and make them unaccountable. It's all Socialism wrapped up in a Capitalist bow. What she wants to do is:
She wants to force corporations with over $1 billion in revenue, regardless of their profit, to appoint at least 40% of their board from the ranks of their workers
She wants to re-install the stakeholder accountability that existed until the 1980's
Warren: Profits have Screwed Up the Country
I read the op-ed and I listened to her interview with Kramer on CNBC and according to Elizabeth Warren's revisionist version of American History, corporations cared about their stakeholders, meaning their employees, customers, communities up until the 1980's. Then all of a sudden, in the 1980's, everything changed. All of a sudden, it was all about profits. It was all about maximizing shareholder value. And that's what screwed up the country.,
Rank #6: Ep. 373: Freedom Is Great; Tariffs Are Not.
Voting Responsibly for Freedom
I am "pro" young people because I want them to grow up in a free country. I want them to have every opportunity to be as prosperous as possible. Democracy is actually an enemy of freedom. Young people have a better chance to achieve their goals if the 18-19-20 year old generation aren't voting for leaders who pass policies that will actually undermine our success and our progress. They're not sophisticated enough yet; they don't know enough yet about the real world to understand the real role of government.
Socialism Masquerading as Capitalism
The goal is to have the best government. that's why we don't let elementary kids vote. Why? because they are not sophisticated enough and even 18-year olds who have never had a job are not able to discern what we need for good government. I am trying to reach more and more young people to help them understand the benefits of freedom and capitalism and understand the dangers of socialism and of socialism that is masquerading as capitalism, crony capitalism and corporatism. We have the U.S. government controlling the economy with regulation and taxes and then blaming everything that goes wrong on the free market. Everything that goes right is because of the free market. Everything we achieve is despite all of the road blocks that government creates and the level to which they go to undermine success.
Turn on to Liberty
So the more young people who can listen to this podcast (younger people are more likely to listen to podcasts) the more knowledgeable voters we'll have to vote for good government. The higher this podcast is ranked, the more people will discover it. I have heard this story many times: first time listeners who have found me. Once I turn them on to liberty, once I appeal to them, I open their eyes. They then do their own research; they start to read. They start to tune out all the propaganda and start thinking for themselves. I can change people's mind.
Help Me Get the Word Out
You can help me change people's minds by posting your rating and review this podcast on iTunes. Put the stars on there and write up a review and help me get my podcast to more people. That's the way to win this political war. There is a giant move to the left. People have misinterpreted the results of the last election. The electorate is moving left. That left wave is going to affect the moderates and even the Republicans in this next election. The coming recession will be worse than the last one and is going to be entirely blamed on free market capitalism.
Pierce the Smokescreen of Mainstream Media
We need to make as many people as possible realize that they are being lied to. The media can repeat a lie often enough that people believe it is the truth. The point of my podcast is to get the real truth out there and to pierce the smokescreen of lies that is being blown by the government, by Wall Street, and by the mainstream media.
Rank #7: U.S. Manufacturing Weakest in 10 Years – Ep. 498
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Silver DID Join Gold's Party
Back in mid-July I titled my podcast, "Is Silver Finally Joining Gold's Party?". Well, I think we know the answer to that question. Since I recorded that podcast about a month and a half ago, the price of silver is up another 15%. In fact, it's up better than 30% since the end of May. Silver having a sterling performance today. As I am recording this podcast, it's about an hour after the close of the U.S. market, we're up almost 90 cents an ounce. We're at 19.22.
Gold Still Meeting Resistance at $1,550
Gold, not quite having as strong a day as silver; gold isn't making a new high. It's up $19.50 on the day: $1548. Still having some problems with the $1550 resistance area. GLD, the exchange-traded ETF did make a new high for this move, but the spot market did not register a new high - but I think that's just a matter of days - if not hours - before that happens.
Silver is Leading the Charge
Because silver is leading the charge. It's leading gold higher; pretty much the way I said. A week ago, I titled my podcast, "Hi Ho Silver, Away" and that prompted a number of people to comment that somehow I had just capped the silver rally by getting too optimistic on silver. Well, that was a week ago. We just hit $18.00, we're now over $19.00, and I said on that podcast, I thought we would have a pretty quick move up to about $20, and once we take out $20, I think this thing could really, really take off.
Overdue Move Down in the Dollar
What is going to be the catalyst, I think, for a much bigger move up in both gold and silver is going to be the long overdue move down in the dollar. Paradoxically, when the dollar starts its decline, it is even possible that gold and silver take a bit of a breather, or maybe pull back a little bit, in terms of dollars, but pull back even more in terms of other currencies. Remember, as strong as gold has been in dollars, it has been even stronger in other currencies.
Rank #8: Government Regulation Is Why Drugs Cost so Much – Ep. 370
Another misguided tweet that came out today from the President had to do with drugs:
Pfizer & others should be ashamed that they have raised drug prices for no reason. They are merely taking advantage of the poor & others unable to defend themselves, while at the same time giving bargain basement prices to other countries in Europe & elsewhere. We will respond!
So here's the President, threatening businesses for raising prices; for making a profit. If Obama were calling out big business like this, the Republicans would be all over him, or if Hillary Clinton were saying this:"You don't understand capitalism! This is an assault on private enterprise!"
Trump's Protectionism Tolerated by Republicans
But Trump says it and it's no big deal. Can you imagine if Hillary Clinton had launched these recent tariffs? Can you imagine the backlash by the Republicans? "This is terrible, the President doesn't understand capitalism; the President doesn't understand free trade; this is going to backfire; this is going to lower our standard of living; this is going to raise prices!" The Republicans would be all over Hillary Clinton. They would have been all over President Obama. Republicans have generally been known to be in favor of free trade. It's the Democrats who wanted some protectionism because they wanted to protect workers. They think free trade will lower wages, hurting the blue collar worker. So you would generally associate Democrats with protectionism. The Republicans wanted to be Free-Traders.
Get Rid of FDA Red Tape
Now, of course, since President Trump is advocating protectionism, the Republicans don't want to attack him because they are blindly loyal to the party. So now he's bashing Pfizer and other private companies for "gouging" the consumer, just raising prices for no reason. This is all misplaced. I agree that drug prices are too high; they should be a lot lower. It is not that Pfizer is rising prices for no reason. One of the reasons drugs are so expensive is the FDA. This is something President Trump can do something about. He is the President. The FDA is a Federal agency. Why not get rid of all that red tape? It takes an average of 10 years and $2.6 billion for a drug company to develop a drug and get it to market. The drug has to recoup those costs when they finally get a drug to market.
Rank #9: Double Standards and Hypocrisy of the Left – Ep. 377
Alex Jones Banned
Alex Jones was banned from iTunes, Facebook, YouTube - his entire YouTube Channel is gone! He had over a million subscribers. The Alex Jones videos on my YouTube channel where I appeared as a guest are still up, but the ones on Alex's site are no longer there.
What About the First Amendment?
This raises a lot of very interesting and disturbing questions. First of all, you have a lot of people talking about censorship. What about the first amendment? The most important thing to remember about freedom of speech is that all of that has to do with government. Government cannot infringe on your freedom of speech. This has nothing to do with a private business. So, Facebook or YouTube are private companies. I don't have a right to have a YouTube channel. When you sign up for YouTube, they have the terms & conditions and you agree... YouTube doesn't charge me to have a YouTube channel; I don't have a right to demand one - it's private property. I can still do videos and get them out on this website and on other channels. I can listen to the Alex Jones Show podcast, even though it is not on iTunes.
Banning an Opinion
I don't think YouTube and Facebook taking Alex Jones off is a First Amendment issue, or is censorship. It certainly is a double standard. Why are Alex Jones' videos being taken down? Supposedly because it is hate speech or fake news. It is his opinion, and if you don't want to listen to it, don't. I don't think he is out there inciting violence. There are actually sites on YouTube and Facebook that do advocate violence. There are Communist YouTube channels. Why is that allowed on YouTube? What is Communism? That is where the government forcibly steals private property. Communism is a much bigger threat to the families in Newtown than Alex Jones denying that there was a shooting there.
Intolerance for Any Opinion that Disagrees
The Alex Jones channel made a lot of money for YouTube. Why would they want to get rid of it? YouTube is about selling ads and they need content, and Alex Jones some very good content. I think the reason was pressure from advertisers who were getting pressure from consumers saying. 'We're not going to use your products if you keep selling ads on this channel."
This is the type of society we live in, where the left is so intolerant of any opinion that they disagree with that they will do anything they can to shut it down. Whether it is trying to use the power of government or trying to use their power as consumers to organize and put pressure on companies to silence people who are saying things they don't like.
Slanting Content Invites Fairer Competition
As long as it is not the government silencing free speech, the message is still out there. Alex Jones will still be out there, just not on YouTube, Facebook or iTunes. Ultimately, if places like Facebook or YouTube started to censor enough people, it would destroy the value of their franchise. If they slant their content it leaves the door open for a competitor to come in and offer free speech.
Where you see massive hypocrisy is the same people who are up in arms about a small bakery who does not want to decorate a cake for a gay wedding and use the full force of the U.S. government to force them to so something they disagree with, have no problem with a trillion dollar company (Apple) denying service to Alex Jones because they don't agree with what he is saying. You either defend private property and liberty or you don't. I don't think we can force a baker to bake a cake for a gay wedding and we can't force YouTube to provide service to Alex Jones.
Tolerance and Rational Arguments
The fact that the left is so intolerant of people who express opinions that they disagree with - you don't see Conservatives or Libertarians threatening to shut down Communist sites or Socialist sites - they ...
Rank #10: The Fed Hiked Itself into Insolvency – Ep. 423
Mainstream Forecasts Incorporating Recession
We are in the early stages of this bubble popping. That's why, if you look now at a lot of the mainstream forecasts, all of a sudden, they're all incorporating recession. The probability of recession is now very high over the next couple of years. I read J.P. Morgan now is saying that there is a 70% probability that the U.S. is in recession by the end of 2020. In fact, most of the forecasts I'm looking at now predict that the U.S. will either enter recession next year or in the following year. This is a huge change from where people were just a few months ago, where there were no recessions as far as the eye can see. Now we're staring them in the face.
Third Consecutive Drop in Small Business Confidence
One thing that really hasn't changed so much is that you have all this optimism that still abounds. It doesn't make sense to me that people could be so optimistic about an economy that they concede is so close to recession. Now, I think on Tuesday we did get a drop in small business confidence, it's the third consecutive monthly drop, and three months ago, small business confidence hit an all-time record high. But if you have more of these small business owners thinking that we are a year away from recession, in fact less than a year if you think recession is going to start in 2019 - we're going to be in 2019 in a few weeks. So, if you think recession is so close, how much longer can you remain so confident?
The Fed Doesn't Have Recession in its Forecast
Now, of course, the Fed doesn't have recession in its forecast; not even close. The National debt is careening toward $22 trillion and these guys are putting out their rosy estimates for economic growth. They're not starting to factor in these recession forecasts that are becoming more and more mainstream.
Fed Funds Rate in Negative Territory in Real Terms
The problem for the Federal Reserve is that they are trying to keep this bubble from imploding, but the task is impossible because enough air has already come out of it. Interest rates have already risen to the point where the camel's back has been broken. The Fed has now backtracked into admitting that we're just slightly below "neutral". We're one more rate hike away from "neutral" even though one more rate hike will still leave the Fed Funds Rate in negative territory in real terms, not in nominal terms. If you accept the government's inflation numbers and we got CPI and PPI numbers that came out yesterday and today - if you look at the core, we've got the hottest core in 7 years.
Rank #11: The Next Economic Hurricane Will Be a Category 5 – Ep. 389
Making the Rich Pay
Julia Salazar, another Democratic Socialist defeated Martin Dilan in the NY Senate primary. The only reference to taxes on her website was to "make the rich pay their fair share". That's it. Nothing about what specifically she wants to raise, by how much she wants to raise it and how much money is going to come it. This is going to be provided, that is going to be provided, and the people vote for her! This is how dumb the electorate has become.
Shift to Democratic Socialism
This is what I have been warning about on this podcast. This shift in the political spectrum. The Democrats are moving to the left. Democratic incumbents are going to be replaced by Socialists or will have to openly embrace Socialism themselves in order to maintain their seats. This is very dangerous, because when it does hit the fan, and it should hit the fan before the next elections a Democrat is going to be the next President, and the Democrats are going to control Congress. It's not going to be the Democratic party of Bill Clinton or even Barack Obama. It will be the Democratic party of Bernie Sanders.
Sovereign Debt Crisis and Dollar Crisis
We're going back to the anniversary of the Financial Crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the next crisis, which will be a sovereign debt crisis and a dollar crisis. It's going to be much much worse. Bailouts are not going to work; stimulus is not going to work.
Injecting Stimulus Directly into the Rears of the Democratic Voters
But they're not going to try the same type of stimulus. They're not going to talk about injecting monetary heroin into the banking system to create a wealth effect. They're going to inject the stimulus right into the rear ends of the Democratic voters. They're going to want to give the money directly to the people, whether it is through some kind of basic income program or government make-work or forgiving student loans. Whatever they do, it will be about showering money that the Fed creates out of thin air and putting it directly in the pockets of the voters. That is just pure unadulterated inflation.
Rank #12: Fed to Let Inflation Genie out of the Bottle – Ep. 383
Dovish Speech Given by Jerome Powell
The catalyst for the rise in gold and the decline in the dollar, I believe, was the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell today in Jackson Hole. Whether or not the speech is perceived as dovishly as I believe it is, I think we're going to have to see if we are going to get some follow through in the dollar and in the gold market next week. It is critical to see how the markets follow through to today's actions. If I'm right, we could see a big move up in the price of gold next week and a big move down in the dollar.
Hedge Funds Are Net Short Gold
Remember we've got a lot of people who are short gold now for the first time since 2001, the hedge funds were net short gold and I think they could get caught in a losing trade and have to scramble to buy back the gold that they sold. Also, lots of people are now loaded up long the dollar, short the emerging market currencies. But the impetus for this trade, the momentum, had to do with the bullish posture of the Fed and the anticipation that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet.
But if what Jerome Powell said today causes traders to second guess those assumptions and maybe dial back their expectations for rate hikes - maybe not necessarily the 2 rate hikes that everybody believes are coming in the balance of 2018 - but potentially the idea that there may be no rate hikes at all coming in 2019, that 2018 may be the end of it. In fact, maybe, we won't even get the December rate hike. I think to the extent the traders start to re-price the odds of future rate hikes this could be a big move in the dollar, a big move in gold and again, we have got to see what happens, because maybe this was a one day event… maybe traders are not going to read into Powells comments what I think he meant. But, given the reaction that we had today, I think there is a reasonable chance that that is exactly the way the markets are going to take it. We have so many people on the wrong side of this trade right now that it's a perfect time for the market to swing the other way.
Rank #13: Ep. 356: Oil, Bonds, Currencies, Tariffs & Guns
Not much action today in the stock markets on this Friday before a 3-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. The action was really in the oil markets, the bond markets and the foreign exchange markets. The biggest move happening in crude oil. Crude was down just over $3/barrel today; one of the biggest declines I've seen in some time. We're back down to $67.50. Earlier in the week, we almost hit $73/barrel for crude, and here we are now at $67.50 - a pretty big drop today. We were down yesterday, also.
Speculation in the Market
The rumors today were that Russia and Saudi Arabia may be upping their production and it was that news that sent the market falling. But remember, markets don't move in a straight line. You get a lot of speculators who get into the market and generally they're not there for the long run; they're there to catch a trend, and they're there to ride it as long as they can. They tend to put stop orders in beneath the market. In the case of oil, if you're long, you'll have a sell stop and many of those stops likely got triggered today.
You probably had some people trying to minimize their exposure. Either they limited their loss to the extent that they got in recently and they got stopped out with a loss or maybe they've been long for a while and they've been moving their stops higher to protect their profits and now they got stopped out of the trade. But I think this is more technical noise. I don't think this uptrend in the price of oil has changed based on this pullback from $73 now to $67.50. Maybe we've got a little more downside, but if you look at the chart, you can barely see the decline. The more recent uptrend that goes back to July - you look at this uptrend and it is holding perfectly. We're not even down to the line yet. We still have a little bit to fall before we hit that line.
Rank #14: Why Democrats Hate the Constitution – Ep. 397
Democrat Women Screaming in Agony
Brett Kavanaugh, over the weekend was confirmed by the Senate, and there were some Democrat women in the gallery watching the vote and they were just screaming in agony; that this was such a terrible thing. I don't think we've ever seen anything like that. They had to have the Sargent at Arms constantly removing people during the vote. The vote passed 50-48, on party lines.
These women were not screaming in pain because they think that a sexual predator is now on the Supreme Court, but apparently they think that Roe v. Wade will be overturned, and that abortions will be illegal in the U.S. This is all a bunch of nonsense. This is not going to happen. This is all much ado about nothing.
Liberal Judges Who Make the Constitution Be Anything They Want It to Mean
What it really all boils down to is that the Left wants a certain type of judges on the Supreme Court. They want liberal judges who believe in big government and all these social programs. They want these judges on the court to have a loose view of the Constitution, that the Constitution means whatever you want it to mean.
What the Republicans want is to appoint justices who will uphold the Constitution - NOT their political agendas. There's a reason for that. If you are a Conservative, you like the Constitution the way it is written. You like the law. If you are a Liberal, you hate the Constitution. The Constitution is a roadblock to everything you want to accomplish.
The Constitution Was Written to Limit the Power of Government
Remember: the Constitution was written to limit the power of government. That's where the laws apply. The Constitution is not about individuals. The Constitution is a law that was meant to apply to the government. to limit the power of the Federal government. To a lesser extent the states, because the Constitution does prohibit the states from doing certain things, but whatever is not prohibited, the states are free to do unless they are barred by their individual constitutions.
The Whole Principle Was to Have Weak Federal Government
What the Constitution does do is that it gives the U.S. government specific powers that are very few and enumerated. The Constitution says that if the Federal government doesn't have the power to do something, if it is not written in the Constitution that the government can do it, then they can't do it. The whole principle was to have weak Federal government and most of what governments do was on the state level. They didn't even want big government at the state level. Most of what the Federal government would do was in war time.
A Small Government Can't Give People Free Stuff
So if you are a Conservative and you believe in limited government, well then you like the Constitution. But if you are a Democrat or a "Liberal", you want to use the government to right wrongs of society. You want it to even things out, to redistribute wealth, to provide a social safety net, if you believe in giving people free stuff (free education, healthcare). A small government can't give people free stuff. If you believe in Social Security and Medicare and Obamacare and the minimum wage, all that stuff is unconstitutional.
Rank #15: Markets Running out of Good News to Anticipate – Ep. 433
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A Bear Market Correction
U.S. stocks continue their correction by moving higher yet again today. Remember, when you have a bull market, the corrections are down, because you're correcting the upward trend by moving backward. In a bear market, it's the opposite. You correct a downward trend by retracing upwards. That's what we're doing now. I think this is the first rally in this bear market, so this rally is, in fact, a correction.
Powell is now "Super Dove"
I think the U.S. stock market is off to its best annual start in about a decade; certainly the NASDAQ is up I think not quite 5% - 4.7% on the year. Of course, what got the correction going was the complete 180 by Powell in that round table discussion, where he basically reversed everything he was saying and became the "Super Dove" when it comes to rate hikes. So the market is now pricing out many rate hikes it had probably priced in and that was the catalyst to really get the market going.
Markets Have Not Priced in End of Quantitative Tightening
Of course, what hasn't been priced in yet are the rate cuts or the end of the quantitative tightening program and the re-launching of quantitative easing. All that is coming. The markets just aren't there yet. They just can't see beyond where we are now. They're looking at this mountain and they don't see the valley on the other side.
Interest Rates High Relative to Mountain of Debt
Again, it's not the rate hikes in the future that were going to cause the recession, the rate hikes from the past have already guaranteed a recession, even though interest rates in absolute terms and relative to where they've been historically are still very low, they are not very low considering the enormity of the debt that we now have; that we didn't have historically. So when you have this mountain of debt, a historically large amount of debt, you need a historically low rate. Even though the rates we have now are still low, they're not as low as they used to be and they're not as low as they need to be.
Rank #16: Bulls Ain’t Afraid of No Bear Market – Ep. 407
The Bulls Had No Fear
Today may be Halloween, but the Bulls had no fear. The U.S. stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day - the first time for the month of October. A lot of traders are probably happy that the month of October is over. Despite the back to back rally, this is still the biggest decline in a month for NASDAQ since 2008.
The Market Gave Back Gains Before Close
In fact, the rally off of yesterday's lows, I think was better than 1100 points. We had this huge gain, and even though today, the Dow was up better than 200 points (241 points), it was up about 450 points going into the last hours. So we did give back a couple of hundred points of that gain, which, to me, looked pretty weak. The NASDAQ had a 2% higher close; it was up 144 points. But you look at the Russell 2000 - much smaller gain there. That index up just a third of 1%. The Dow transports, they were barely positive. Not even 2 tenths of 1 percent - a 15 point rise in the Dow Transports.
Bear Market Correction
Nonetheless, all the Bulls were out in force on the financial networks claiming that the correction is over. Everybody was confident that the lows are in; that this big back to back rally is proof that you'd better buy now, otherwise you're going to miss the rally, and this is a typical correction, and now it has run its course. You know what? If this really was the "end of the correction", most likely, there wouldn't be so many people so confident that it was over. You'd have a lot more fear, especially on a Halloween. The fact that there is no fear, to me, shows that it is more likely that this is not the end of the correction but the beginning of the bear market. And that this rally is the correction. In bull markets, the market going down is a correction, because the trend is still positive. In a bear market, it's the opposite: the rallies are the correction.
Rank #17: The Coming Financial Hurricane Will Be a Cat 5 – Ep. 496
Don't miss my upcoming appearances:
The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5
The Dallas Money Show October 13-14
and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4
Waiting for Hurricane Dorian
When I recorded my last podcast on Tuesday evening, we were getting ready for Hurricane Dorian, which was supposed to pass by the south coast 0f Puerto Rico on Wednesday. But when I woke up on Wednesday morning, the meteorologists had the hurricane pretty much coming right over my house. It had changed course and had moved north, and it was supposed to come right through Puerto Rico, rather than just go by it to the South. But then the hurricane kept moving north, and it ended up missing Puerto Rico completely. We were here, the kids were home from school, everybody was battened down waiting for what at that time was maybe a strong tropical storm… maybe a category 1 hurricane.
Puerto Rico Spared from Hurricane
But we didn't even get a rain drop. Not even a gust of wind, as the hurricane just missed Puerto Rico to the north. I think it did go by the U.S. and British Virgin Islands - didn't really do much damage, there, because the store hadn't intensified but Puerto Rico's gain will be Florida's loss. The storm did not go over Puerto Rico, and initially it was supposed to go over the Dominican Republic, and the mountains there, it's a much bigger island, and it would have really beaten up the storm, but because the storm was really uninterrupted, and it has been over water the entire time, now it looks like it will be a category 4 when it hits somewhere along the Florida coast. It looks like a pretty powerful storm.
Broken Window Theory
You're going to hear, as is always the case, economists are going to be saying, "Oh, well, this is good for GDP." Whenever there's a hurricane, people say, "Oh, look! We have to spend all this money repairing and rebuilding everything that was destroyed." But that is not good for the economy. If you haven't heard the "Broken Window Theory", Henry Hazlitt does a very good job of explaining that and refuting the Keynesian idea that disasters are somehow good for the economy.
Rank #18: Special Privileges for Some Means Freedom for None – Ep. 359
Not much has been going on in the economy or the financial markets the last couple of days. Its been pretty quiet, so I'm going to take an opportunity to record a podcast more on current events and politics, so if you're not interested in those topics, then maybe just wait for my next podcast, although, when I did the Peter Schiff Radio Show 5 days a week, there were people who complained when I did not talk about the markets, or even the economy. But I always enjoyed talking more about politics and current events, and I think the feedback I got was more engaging, so the show was more interesting.
Supreme Court Wedding Cake Case
So, I am going to talk about a couple of topics today; one has to do about that ruling that came out of the Supreme Court yesterday on the baker in Colorado who had refused to bake a cake for a gay wedding. I know I have talked about this topic in the past; it is not the first time it has come up, but it has come up again in the wake of this ruling so I want to revisit that topic.
No More Swimsuit Competition for Miss America
Before I get to that topic, I would like to address a lighter topic, but nonetheless just as interesting. The Miss America Pageant is no longer going to consider beauty as the criteria for the pageant. In other words, it is a beauty pageant, but beauty doesn't count. It's not outer beauty, it's just going to be, I guess inner beauty. They are going to get rid of the swimsuit competition, they are going to get rid of the evening gown competition and they will select a winner based on other characteristics. I'm really not sure what. I know they've got the talent competition; no one really paid too much attention to talent. Some of the women actually had some talent. Usually the most humorous part of the Miss America Pageant was the Q&A where there were often political questions asked and the contestants would try to give the most politically correct answer they could come up with.
Rank #19: Blind Fed Leading Blind Investors over a Financial Cliff – Ep. 434
Everything up on the Week Except Treasury Bonds and the Dollar
The stock market ended a positive week on a little bit of a down note; all of the major averages had small losses today - well off the lows of the day. The market tried a couple of times to sell off but the dips were bought on each occasion and we ended up closing near the highs of the day, even though we were down on the day. Pretty much everything was up on the week except treasury bonds and the dollar. The dollar fell, long-term interest rates rose. Gold was up. Oil was the big winner, even though it was down close to a dollar a barrel today, we closed right around $52; up better than 8% on the week.
All Fed - No Change in Fundamentals
But what has been driving the rally has all been the Fed. There's nothing fundamental that has changed about the U.S. economy or about the U.S. stock market other than the "Powell Put" is now back in play. In fact, it's not just Powell putting that out there, he has been joined by a chorus of central bankers who came out today, yesterday, all throughout the week - they're all now reading from the same dovish playbook. They've got their marching orders and they are talking up the market. Now talking how the Fed has to listen to the market, be careful and take its cues from the market. It used to be that the market didn't matter. The Fed was going to do its thing and the markets are going to do what they are going to do. And it didn't take long for that to change.
The Fed Can Not Allow the House of Cards to Fall
Of course, I've been saying that all along; that the Fed was not going to allow this house of cards that they deliberately inflated to just fall apart. Now they had to pretend that they didn't care about the markets but, of course the whole time, they were hoping the markets actually didn't go down because they didn't want to have to reverse policy. They wanted to talk tough even though they didn't have a stick.
Rank #20: Peter Schiff Challenge: It’s Inflation, NOT Deflation
I did the first live stream a couple of weeks ago; that was on bitcoin. I got a lot of feedback on that one and a lot of people were coming up with potential topics for the next one. I think the most common request was for inflation or deflation: which one is it going to be? Because there are a lot of people out there who see the world similar to the way I do, as far as the problems that are confronting the U.S. economy in particular but the global economy, but everybody seems to fall into two camps as to how it is all going to go down; whether it is deflation that is coming - we should prepare for that, or whether it is inflation that's coming and you should prepare for that. Now I am an inflationist. I am in that camp. Other people in that camp may be, like Jim Rickards or Jimmy Rogers or Marc Faber - there are a number of people who would be in the inflation camp. Deflation would be guys like Robert Prechter, Harry Dent, there are a number of guys that are looking for deflation.
Now before I really get into it, I want to talk a little bit about the terms, so we know what we're talking about. Let's define the terms. What is inflation? What is deflation? The actual definition of inflation, the actual meaning of the word, is an expansion of the money supply.
What does "Inflate" Really Mean?
That's what inflation is; it's not about prices. If you think of the word, "inflate" - what does inflate mean? It means to expand. You inflate a balloon; when you inflate a balloon, it expands. Prices don't expand - they go up, they go down; they don't expand. What expands? Money supply. When the government creates money, the money supply expands, like a balloon. It blows up. So that's what inflation is, it is an expansion of the money supply.
What is Deflation?
Deflation is the opposite; it is a contraction of the money supply. Now when you inflate the money supply-you create more money - you have more money bidding up prices. So inflation will result in prices going up. But prices going up is not the inflation they are the consequence of inflation.