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The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Updated about 1 month ago

Rank #17 in Investing category

Business
Investing
News
Business News
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Peter Schiff is an economist, financial broker/dealer, author, frequent guest on national news, and host of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. The podcast focuses on economic data analysis and unbiased coverage of financial news, both in the U.S. and global markets. As entertaining as he is informative, Peter packs decades of brilliant insight into every news item. Join the thousands of fans who have benefited from Peter’s commitment to getting the real story out to the world.

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Peter Schiff is an economist, financial broker/dealer, author, frequent guest on national news, and host of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. The podcast focuses on economic data analysis and unbiased coverage of financial news, both in the U.S. and global markets. As entertaining as he is informative, Peter packs decades of brilliant insight into every news item. Join the thousands of fans who have benefited from Peter’s commitment to getting the real story out to the world.

iTunes Ratings

3324 Ratings
Average Ratings
3021
126
53
48
76

Must listen!

By Joseph14242628 - May 19 2020
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Peter will tell you how it is. He is incredibly smart and offers a lot. Listen!

My favorite podcast.

By Vigilante Penguin - Apr 18 2020
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If Peter was an ice cream flavor, he would be pralines and broken clock.

iTunes Ratings

3324 Ratings
Average Ratings
3021
126
53
48
76

Must listen!

By Joseph14242628 - May 19 2020
Read more
Peter will tell you how it is. He is incredibly smart and offers a lot. Listen!

My favorite podcast.

By Vigilante Penguin - Apr 18 2020
Read more
If Peter was an ice cream flavor, he would be pralines and broken clock.
Cover image of The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Latest release on Jul 08, 2020

The Best Episodes Ranked Using User Listens

Updated by OwlTail about 1 month ago

Rank #1: Nothing That Can’t Last Forever Will -Ep 574

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Quiet day in the stock market.
More jobs lost than expected.
Fed’s balance sheet moves through $7 Trillion.
Ron Insana says big deficits are not a problem.
Next crisis will happen overnight.
Retails sales declining fast, even as shoppers hoard groceries.
Netflix and Amazon are not COVID investments.
Federal Reserve illegally grabbed the authority to do what It’s doing.
Gold is at the beginning of a big rise.
Buying the stock market is not contrarian.
Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge.
Q&A

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May 15 2020

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Rank #2: Government Is the Threat, Not Facebook – Ep. 509

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I am Back!
I am back! I know a lot of people have been upset that I haven't been able to do a podcast in almost 2 weeks. The reason I've been absent… I just haven't been feeling well.  I've been coughing a lot and and haven't been up for doing a podcast - I'm doing one today, though.  I'm still a little bit sick… but I figure it's been long enough, so I have to talk a little bit about what's on my mind.
Dollar Index Trending Lower
First of all, there hasn't been that much activity, I guess, in the markets over this time period. The U.S. dollar has generally been weaker.  It has been trending down.  It hasn't really broken down yet, but it is going lower.  In fact, the dollar index closed today near 97.69. so that is lower than it had been.  Remember, a few weeks ago, the dollar index was above 99. So the dollar is trending lower.
Interest Rates Up - Bond Prices Down
Interest rates are actually moving higher.  Bond prices are going down.  The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury now is at 2.26, and I think this is significant because it really shows the problems that are building in the economy because the dollar is weakening and interest rates are rising. That is going to mean higher consumer prices, it's going to mean higher borrowing costs; now of course, the Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to artificially suppress interest rates. One of the stories that I've read several times over the last couple of weeks is how the Federal Reserve is having to do more repurchase agreements; having to increase the size of the amount of Treasuries they're buying in the market. I didn't see that in today's balance sheet numbers; the balance sheet was up only about 2 billion over the prior week.  But I have a feeling that the number is going to be much, much higher than that when we get it a week from today.

Oct 25 2019

53mins

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Rank #3: AOC Right for the Wrong Reasons – Ep. 456

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VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recorded April 2, 2019
February Durable Goods Order Declined Slightly Less Than Expected

We had a quiet day in the U.S. stock market today.  Not much reaction from a slightly weaker than expected February Durable Goods Orders number that came out before the market opened.  They were looking for a weak number; the consensus was for a decline of 1.8% - we got a decline of slightly less than that: 1.6%. They revised the prior month down from +.4% to +.1%, so we declined less, but from a lower number. Overall, slightly weaker.  In fact, the Core Capital Goods number was also slightly weaker.  They were looking for a rise of .2%; instead, we had a drop of .1% - although they revised the prior month up from .8% to .9%.  Still a little weaker on the day.

Lyft Hitting Lows
But the market still seems to be oblivious to the weak data, in fact later in the day we did get the auto sales numbers that were disappointing, as well. A lot of bad news is being routinely overlooked by Wall Street.  Lyft, the company that went public on Friday: I discussed the lackluster performance of that IPO on Friday.  In fact, most of the commentary that I listened to or saw was positive.  They were describing the Lyft IPO as a big success… everything went great… the stock went up… But what concerned me about the stock was not how it went up, but how weakly it closed. It pretty much closed on the low of the day.  It had sold off pretty much all day, following the pop on the open.

Lyft Sank into Bear Market on Day 2
The stock came public at $72 and it immediately traded as high as $88.6, but closed the first day of trading at $78.29. Still above the $72 opening, but anybody who bought the opening print was down.  Then it got clobbered on Monday and it fell again today.  It only closed down slightly.  It closed relatively near the highs of the day, but the low was $66.10.  That's 25% below the peak price on Friday. So that's a bear market.  In fact, officially Lyft sank into a bear market on its second day as a public company.  So that bear market got even worse today.  The stock is now better than 8% below its IPO price.

Apr 03 2019

56mins

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Rank #4: Fed’s Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words – Ep. 453

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VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Recording Today's Podcast from Willemstad, Curaçao
I am recording today's podcast from my cabin on a cruise ship, which is right now docked on the Dutch island of Curaçao, which is about 35 miles north of Venezuela.  I've never actually been to this island, even though I live in the Caribbean now, in Puerto Rico, there are still many places in the Caribbean that I have not visited. I really wish I'd come here sooner. I had no idea how beautiful this island was.  Not really the beaches, so much, although I'm sure they are equally spectacular. I didn't go to the beach.  I just spent the day walking around town. But it's probably the most charming Caribbean island I've been to, as far as the architecture and the way the town is laid out - how beautiful the streets are, and the buildings and how clean they are.  It really seems like a nice place to live. I think there is a permanent population of about 160,000 people.
The Fed's Decision
I want to spend my limited time on today's podcast talking about the Federal Reserve's decision today and the press conference.  I did get back on the boat in time to watch the press conference live, and I do want to limit today's podcast to that discussion.

Before the Fed announced its decision on interest rates - nobody expected a rate hike, and we did not get a rate hike, but before the Fed announced today's decision, the markets were on the defensive.  Earlier in the day, Donald Trump had mentioned that he now thinks that the tariffs on Chinese imports, or on Americans who want to buy Chinese imports, may remain in effect for a much longer period of time; indicating that maybe this great trade deal is not as close as the President was letting on in the past.
Unexpected Dovishness
So the markets sold off. I think the Dow, maybe at the lows was down about 170-some odd points, not exactly sure, but then, when the Fed announced its decision not to hike, the market erased all of those losses, and I think at one point we were up close to triple digits. Nobody was expecting a hike; I think they were expecting the Fed to be dovish, but I don't think they were expecting the Fed to be this dovish.

Mar 21 2019

27mins

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Rank #5: America’s Economy Is the Biggest Bubble Ever – Ep. 522

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Liz Claman, Gene Epstein, Jim Grant, Peter Schiff, David Tice, Tom Woods at the NYC Premier of Jimmy Morrison's "The Bubble" Order The Bubble here
November Personal Income and Spending Positive
On Friday, all of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the day and the week positive, in record territory. The only index not in record territory (but it did make a new 52-week high) is the Russell 2000. The supposed catalyst for Friday's optimism was a better than expected report on Personal Income & Spending for November. They were looking for personal spending to rise by .3% following the prior month's flat number.  They actually revised that one up to +.1%, and the November number came out at +.5%, so incomes rising.  Spending came in and met expectations of +.4%, so apparently the savings rate ticked up a bit. But this was better than expected. I think that caused some optimism on Wall Street.
Kansas City Manufacturing Index Disappoints
But the markets likely would have gone up, anyway, even if that number disappointed. We did get weak data from manufacturing.  Kansas City manufacturing number came out for November.  It was supposed to be weak at a -3%, but it was even weaker at -8%. That is the lowest level for this index in 4 years. . In fact, we've had 6 consecutive monthly declines in the Kansas City Manufacturing Index, and that really is par for the course. We get stronger economic data when it comes to people spending money but we have weaker data when it comes to generating real production, real wealth, goods production manufacturing - all that data comes out weaker than expected.
U.S. Steel Lays off 1,500 Workers in Michigan
In fact, we got news on Friday that U.S. is going to be laying off more than 1500 workers in the state of Michigan. Of course, this flies in the face of the fantasy that is being promoted by Donald Trump that the steel industry is back - the steel industry is booming. He's been talking a lot since he's been elected about the steel industry, in particular, about how he saved it, and how it's great. But here we are, laying off workers, shutting down production facilities.  This is a sign that reality is in direct contradiction to President Trump's fantasy.

Dec 21 2019

58mins

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Rank #6: Are Debt-Laden Consumers Finally Tapped Out? – Ep. 449

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Market Keeps Rallying on Regurgitated News
The Dow Jones started off the final day of the week with a pretty strong rally; we were up a little better than 200 points earlier in the day.  Then we got some weaker than expected economic data which I will get to a bit later, and the market sold off.  The Dow never quite went negative, and then we rallied back and the Dow managed to end the week back above 26,000 with a 110 point gain. In fact all of the major indexes were positive on the day.  What caused the early morning rally was optimism, once again, that a trade deal with China is about to be signed, and it's kind of amazing how often the markets can bite on this and keep rallying on regurgitated news, because, we've heard this before.
According to Trump the Chinese Are Going to Pay, but According to Economics, Americans Are Going to Pay
As I have said on this podcast before, we are going to get a trade deal.  A trade deal with China is inevitable. The only positive about the trade deal is going to be that it takes the prospect of a self-inflicted wound off the table. That's the only good thing.  If we have a trade deal, then Trump is not going to increase tariffs on American businesses and on American consumers. That is the empty threat that is out there:  "Hey, we're going to force China to the negotiation table because, if they don't, we're going to erect these tariffs, which, according to Trump the Chinese are going to pay, but according to economics, Americans are going to pay. That's one of the reasons that we can't afford to actually use this weapon that we are threatening the Chinese with.
Promising the Moon
In fact, one of the reasons that you had all this optimism about this new deal was Larry Kudlow was out talking about how great the new deal is going to be - how this is going to be a huge win for America, it's a fantastic deal, it's a boon, it's better than we could have expected, it is all-encompassing... He has really raised expectations. Doesn't Kudlow know anything about the expectation game?  The idea is to under-promise so you can over-deliver. It seems like we're destined for failure here because everybody in the Trump administration is promising the moon.

Mar 02 2019

1hr 4mins

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Rank #7: Whistling Past the Stagflation Graveyard – Ep. 451

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Market Down Before the Bell
A late-day rally wasn't enough to bring the U.S. stock market indexes into the black on the day.  In fact, this is the first down week that the U.S. stock market has had in 2019. Something tells me it's certainly not going to be the last. The market was down from the bell this morning. Even before the bell, if you look at the futures, even before we got the jobs number - the February jobs report (which I will get into a little later in this podcast) the markets were already down.  The Dow Futures, I think were off about 125, 135, something like that. Normally, the markets are not making a big move in either direction before the jobs report comes out, because people don't know what the number is going to be, and generally it's a market-moving number, so the markets are typically pretty flat before we get the number.

Trade Deal Up in the Air
This time, the markets were down.  Based on rumors that the trade deal with China may be delayed.  People were talking about this Mar-a-Lago Summit that was going to take place later in the month, and now I was reading about how there may not be a deal in time, and the Chinese may not want to go to Mar-a-Lago, and so the whole thing is up in the air. So people were getting a little nervous about the trade deal. So that's why the markets were already selling off, plus, I think the Chinese markets had been weaker overnight. Trump or someone else Tweeted out that Trump had said, as soon as we signed the trade deal, the markets are really going to spike. Apparently, nobody has explained to Donald Trump how the stock market works. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Maybe the President has more experience in the real estate market, not understanding how the stock market generally anticipates news, and sells off on the realization of that news.

Mar 09 2019

54mins

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Rank #8: The Debt Bomb Has a Shorter Fuse Than Anyone Thinks – Ep 573

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Financials take out new lows today before rallying the market positive.
Tech stocks providing false sense of security for the markets.
Powell throws cold water on negative interest rate expectations.
Trump beats the drums demanding negative interest rates.
Betting odds increase on Democrats taking the Senate.
Congressman now proposing to pay people to go off unemployment.
Restaurants will not recover from this.
Entrepreneurs and business owners are the real heroes, not teachers.
Swedish response was more responsible.
Inflation is a consequence of government, never the private sector.
Gold and gold stock charts looking great as markets start to roll over.
Home builders are in trouble.

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Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash
Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook
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Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff

May 14 2020

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Rank #9: Democracy has Failed, Not Capitalism – Ep. 458

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VERY IMPORTANT PODCAST! Please share with everyone you care about. Ray Dalio: Please start at 29:52
Extreme Inequality Is Not a Function of Capitalism
I agree that wealth inequality is a problem, but it is a problem that is created by government - created by the Federal Reserve. I was warning years ago, when the Federal Reserve first launched Quantitative Easing, that this was going to happen! This policy would only benefit assets at the expense of the overall economy. I've been warning about this for years. The government is doing this, not the market. So, yes, I want the government to do something about wealth inequality by getting out of the way. I want Capitalism to do something about inequality.  Now, of course, there's always going to be inequality - that's part of capitalism. People are not going to be equal, because peoples' contributions are not equal. What is not normal right now is the extent of the disparity. That extreme inequality is not a function of Capitalism.  if we enjoyed Capitalism, there would be less inequality.
We Need to Embrace and Re-Discover Capitalism
Ray Dalio recently replied to a recent Tweet of mine, referring to his appearance on 60 Minutes, stating that if the only solution Ray Dalio has is to raise taxes on the rich, and to hope the government spends the money productively, then he has no solution.  So then he referred me to his article, which I read, word for word: Why and How Capitalism Needs to be Reformed, parts 1 and 2. Again, Capitalism does not need to be reformed. What needs to be reformed is Democracy. We need to embrace and re-discover Capitalism and what needs to be reformed is all of the Socialism that has been interjected into Capitalism.
Government Makes It Difficult for Small Businesses to Hire Young People
I told Ray Dalio that I would read his article and I read it and made some notes and I'm going to go over my thoughts now. Number one, right off the bat, Dalio talks about all the jobs he had by the time he was age 12. He came from humble beginnings, he wasn't born wealthy, he is a rags-to-riches story, an American Dream story. By the time his was 12, he made money delivering newspapers, mowing lawns, caddying, and he invested the money he earned in the stock market. The first thing that grabs my attention is, "how many 12-year-olds today have jobs?" Very few young people today have jobs. Why is that? one of the reasons is because the government has made it so difficult for small businesses to hire young people -  minimum wage laws, and workmen's comp, disability, unemployment make it difficult for young people to get jobs.

Apr 10 2019

1hr 5mins

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Rank #10: Peter Schiff’s Bitcoin Challenge Live Stream

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First Live YouTube Event
Welcome to the Peter Schiff Bitcoin Challenge. First of all, I have to make a confession. I really was not familiar with YouTube live streaming and live chatting, and so the way I thought about this in my head; I thought that people were going to be able to talk. Like a Skype group conversation. People would be able to actually engage me and make their case in their own voice, and to be able to have a little back and forth.
Post a Cogent Argument
I didn't realize that the way I had to do this was with a chat, where people who want to make a point have to do it by chat. So I'm going to try my best.  Hopefully, this format can work. There are so many chats going by, it is hard to keep track of them. But I want to see if people can put together a cogent, concise argument.  Think of it like you're composing a tweet. I can try to address each point, and try to take in what you're trying to tell me as to why I'm wrong about Bitcoin, and why I should actually be embracing it as digital gold.
Don't Forget to Subscribe to My Podcasts
So, what I'm going to try to do is to see the best points that are being made on this chat, then read it out loud, and then address it, make a statement and the person who authored that particular text listens to what I have to say, if they want to do a follow up or something, they can do that, and hopefully I will see that follow up. I'm doing this chat in my home studio in Connecticut. I'm in the studio where I normally do my video blogs, so if you're new to this channel, you should subscribe it.  Two or three times a week a do these video blogs (podcasts) where I talk about all sorts of things that are relevant to people who buy Bitcoin.

Jul 16 2019

3hr 5mins

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Rank #11: April’s Fools Day Comes Late – Ep. 460

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Recorded April 16, 2019

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW
May 13 - 15, 2019
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/
Tax Day
Yesterday was April 15th - Tax Day, or as my father, Irwin Schiff used to say, "April Fool's Day". My father thought it was April Fool's Day because he believed that that was the day on which Americans basically voluntarily paid a tax that no law required them to pay and voluntarily filed a 1040 tax form that no law required them to file.  Of course, my father ultimately went to jail and died and jail because of those beliefs.  I have been paying my taxes, although now that I live in Puerto Rico it's not nearly as painful as it used to be when I lived in Connecticut.
16th Amendment
A lot of people don't realize that April 15 was not always Tax Day; a little bit of trivia. When the income tax first passed, or reared its ugly head in 1913 - although that's not the first time we had an income tax.  We had an income tax during the civil war. The North imposed the tax and when the war ended, the income tax went away. It came back again, and it was declared unconstitutional, correctly, by the Supreme Court in the Pollock Decision.  Then they resurrected it with the 16th Amendment, and following the 16th Amendment in 1913, the original Tax Day was March 1.
Income Tax
Why is that? Because the income tax is a tax on your income for an entire year. So, we are now in 2019 and we're paying our income taxes for 2018.  But you don't know what your income is in 2018 until the year is over. You may have earned a lot of money early in the year - you could lose it all back on the last day of the year and end up with no income at all - end up with a loss.  So the idea was, if you're going to tax your income, then we have to wait until the end of the year, and then we have to give you some time to add up your income and figure out what you owe and then pay the tax.

Apr 17 2019

38mins

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Rank #12: Ringing in a Decade of Stagflation – Ep. 523

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Second to Last Trading of the Decade...
All of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the second to last trading day of this year in the red. Although, it's not just the second to last trading day of the year, it is the second to last trading day of the decade. Technically speaking, I know the next decade doesn't really start until January 1, 2021, but practically speaking, it's going to be the 20's. So, to me, that's a new decade.
Closing With a Gain of About 30% in the S&P
So let's just say tomorrow is the last trading day of the decade.  And even if we get another decline tomorrow, I don't know what's going to happen - maybe we'll get a bounce, but I doubt it will be significant enough to turn the tide on this bull market or this bubble - bear market rally - whatever you want to call it - but it looks like we're going to close the year with a gain of about 30% in the S&P 5000.
Not our Strongest Year in Recent Memory
That's going to put the market with its best annual increase since 2013 - which, of course is not that long ago. So we did have a rise in 2013 when Obama was President, where the S&P had a year that was as good as this year, with Donald Trump as President. So clearly, it's not simply a case that we have Trump as President and that's why we have such a strong market. We've  had plenty of years where the market was this strong and Trump wasn't President. In fact, Barack Obama was President.  One of the reasons that the market was so strong this year is because it finished last year so weak.  I think the 4th quarter of last year we were down 13 - 14% - but it was a very big decline which would have been much much bigger but for that record surge the day after Christmas.  Remember that Boxing Day - I think the Dow was up about 1,000 points.

Dec 31 2019

1hr 3mins

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Rank #13: QE4 Sends Dow Above 28,000 – Ep. 514

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Markets Making More Milestones
The Dow continued its weekly winning streak with another milestone, closing above 28,000 for the first time: 28,004.89 to be exact.  That's a gain of 222.93.  Now, I'm sure everybody is getting their "Dow 30,000!" hats ready, because obviously that's not too far off, now from 28,000.  But it's not just the Dow that is setting records and crossing milestones. The NASDAQ - another record high today - up 61.81, closing at 8,540.83.  That's the first time the NASDAQ has been above 8,500.  The S&P also making new highs, up 23.83 - 3120.46 is the close. This is the first time the S&P has been above 3100.
Russell 2000 Sitting Out the Party
The only major index really not enjoying the party, although it was up again today is the Russell 2000, still not quite near an all-time record high.  That index is at 1,596.  Again, the Russell is the one that most reflects the domestic economy, and it is the domestic economy that is in a lot of trouble. In fact, the Dow rose today, despite more weak economic data that was released during the day.
Industrial Production: Weak
Probably the weakest data point of them all was on industrial production. It was supposed to drop again after falling .4% in September, and they did revise the September drop to -.3% from -.4%.  But instead of a .4 drop in October, which was the consensus forecast, we dropped by .8.  So twice as large a decline. In fact, I think you have to go back to March of 2009 to see a larger decline than that in industrial production.  Capacity Utilization really contracted as well, from 77.5; it went all the way down to 76.7.
Halfway to Recession
And we also got more weak news on business inventories, which were revised lower.  And I think that, and industrial production and some other weak data points that had come out caused the Atlanta Fed to reduce its forecast for Q4 GDP all the way down to .3%. It was at 1%, and now it's at .3% which is close to zero. And in fact, it's very likely that we could end up with a negative print for Q4 GDP, which means we're halfway to recession.

Nov 16 2019

1hr 2mins

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Rank #14: America’s Twin Deficits Hitting Record Highs – Ep. 450

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Wall of Overhead Resistance
It looks like the correction in the U.S. stock market, and by correction I am referring to the rally, the first correction in what I believe is a new bear market - but it's looking like that correction may have finally run its course as the stock market has run into a wall of overhead resistance. In fact, the technical action on Monday was quite telling, because early in the morning we opened quite a bit higher - 100 points or so higher, and then had a 350-point reversal to the downside.  The catalyst for the initial rally was yet another rumor of an impending trade deal with China.  And it seems to me that we've basically run out of the ability to continue to rally the market by regurgitating the same news story over and over again.

Now They've Sold the Last Rumor
Remember I was saying that, when we actually have a trade deal, with China, my thinking would be it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact"?  Well the problem is, traders have already bought that rumor over and over again and that they may have already sold the last rumor. They can't wait for the fact.  They've just had so many rumors, that now they've sold the last rumor, and it doesn't even matter if we get a deal - the market is going to sell off.  Of course, if we get no deal at all, then the market could sell off even more, because a great deal has already been priced in to the market.  But there isn't going to be a great deal. There will be a deal, there will be nothing great about it; there will probably be nothing substantive about it. Expectations have been raised so high, which is another reason that I don't think Trump is as good a negotiator as he pretends.

Mar 07 2019

35mins

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Rank #15: Fed Indicates Tolerance for Higher Inflation – Ep. 447

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Another "Greatest Deal Ever"
'The Dow rose a little over 180 points today, closing above 26,000 -26,031.81, to be exact, for the first time during this bear market rally.  I still believe that we are in a bear market rally, not a new bull market. the catalyst for today for today's stock market strength, and it was across the board; the markets were strong from the opening bell to the closing bell.  I think the high in the Dow was maybe just above 200; we sold off intra-day.  But the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 were also higher on, again, optimism that there is going to be a trade deal between the U.S. and China.  Donald Trump is saying that he is negotiating the greatest deal ever, which is something that I have been saying, regardless of what the deal ends up being, Trump is going to say "It is the Greatest Deal Ever".

What Helps China Is an Appreciating Yuan
But there was a lot of attention being paid to the deal, a lot of stories coming out that were close to a deal.  In fact, I read that they do have a agreement on exchange rates.  Currencies, obviously the U.S. likes to accuse China of being a currency manipulator, and so maybe there's some type of deal that says they won't manipulate their currency - they won't use their currency as a weapon. Which is something China wasn't going to do, anyway. To the extent that we win any concessions from the Chinese, where they agree not to weaken their currency, that basically amounts to nothing. In fact, a weak currency is bad for China.  What helps China is an appreciating Yuan.

Today's "Fedspeak" on Inflation
More important than the talk about the trade deal was a lot of  "Fedspeak" today.  You had a lot of Fed officials that were talking; James Bullard, Clarida, John Williams - they were all talking.  The real common theme today was inflation. I have been talking about this for years.  How was the Federal Reserve going to basically respond to inflation above their 2% target? The real rate of inflation has probably been above 2%, in fact I'm confident that it's been above 2% every year.

Feb 23 2019

53mins

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Rank #16: Jobs Hype Won’t Work Much Longer – Ep. 490

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Recorded August 2, 2019
July NonFarm Payroll Report: Great? Not so Great
This morning we got the release of the July NonFarm payroll report, and the general consensus among the analysts seem to be that it was s strong report, a solid report. I saw Larry Kudlow this morning on Fox Business talking about another "solid performance" in job creation.  But once again, once you look beneath the surface, and you don't have to look too deep, this is not a good report.
The Bar Was Set Pretty Low
First of all, the bar was set pretty low.  The consensus was 151,000 jobs.  That's not a lot of jobs, so it's not that hard to beat it, and we did.  We got 164,000 jobs.  But the reason we beat it was because we created more government jobs than the market expected. For private payrolls, the consensus was 160,000 jobs and we only created 148,000 jobs.  So we created 12,000 fewer private sector jobs than had been expected and we made up the difference by creating government jobs, whether they are for the Federal government or state government.
Public Sector Jobs vs Private Sector Jobs
But there's a very big difference between private sector jobs and public sector jobs, in that the taxpayer isn't on the hook to pay the salaries of the private sector workers. They're working in companies that are generating profits, so the salaries are paid for by the profits that the businesses generate.
The Government Does Not Generate Profits
The government doesn't generate any profit. It just has to suck up tax revenue; we have to pay for these.  So it's not a good thing that government gets more bloated and hires more people.  Especially since a lot of government bureaucrats tend to complicate things. They make everybody less efficient.  If we're hiring more regulators to slow down the economy and get in everybody's way, that's not a good thing. I'd rather have a lean, mean government. Of course, that's not going to happen.

Aug 03 2019

55mins

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Rank #17: Ignore the CPI: Inflation is a Huge Problem – Ep 572

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Stock market drops.
CPI lowest since 2008.
Prices will begin rising higher and sooner than most expect.
$2000 monthly UBI proposed for Americans as young as 16 years old
Socialists love coronavirus even more than they love climate change.
Norwegian Airlines sets an example the US should follow.
Bitcoin halves.

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May 12 2020

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Rank #18: It’s Bad Monetary Policy Not a Good Economy – Ep. 511

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New Highs in the Headlines
We had record high closes today in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite; the Dow Jones not quite a new record but still up better than 300 points: 301.13 to be precise. Of course, all of the headlines, and President Trump - they're going to be claiming that the reason that we had these surging stock prices is because we had a stronger than expected jobs report.  We got the October nonfarm payroll that came out this morning and it was better than was expected. You had Larry Kudlow out there talking about how this is a fantastic jobs report.  It basically shows how we have this great economy; the greatest economy in the history of America, and that's the reason that the stock market is making record highs, because we have this great economy.
Economic Data was a Mixed Bag
Well, first of all, the jobs report is really not that great.  Sure, it was stronger than expected, but that's not why the stock market went up today. We had other economic data that came out that was weaker than expected, so it was an overall mixed bag. In fact, the Atlanta Fed came out today and downwardly revised their forecast for Q4 GDP from 1.5% down to 1.1%, and I think the New York Fed is actually below 1% in its forecast for fourth quarter GDP. So hardly the strongest economy in history, yet the markets and President Trump are certainly celebrating like the economy is strong.
Nonfarm Payroll up from an Upwardly Revised Previous Month
But let me get to the tale of the tape first in the jobs report, because we were looking for a weak number. So the bar was pretty low. The consensus was for 90,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, and one of the reasons was because of the striking GM workers, so they were going to be subtracted from the numbers.  So that was already baked into the cake. We ended up getting 128,000 jobs, so nicely above those diminished expectations.  But probably more significantly, they went back and upwardly revised the number they told us for the prior month, which was originally reported at +136,000.  Now the government claims it was +180,000.

Nov 02 2019

54mins

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Rank #19: Government will Kill More Businesses Than it Saves – Ep 563

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Optimism in market from progress toward vaccine.
Wall Street showing their bias against gold stocks.
Fed’s balance sheet climbing toward 7 trillion.
Bailouts will kill businesses.
Q&A

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Apr 18 2020

1hr 36mins

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