Tuesday 15th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet session, but bond yields have continued to push higher and the US dollar has climbed with them. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are continuing to adjust to an outlook where the US economy is growing faster than expected, and how that could push out the path of easing from the Fed. Whilst trading has been thin on very little data, get ready for a deluge today. On the home front, Australian wages data, along with Chinese activity data, Japan’s GDP, UK employment, Canada’s CPI and US retail sales. When it rains it pours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>It’s been a quiet session, but bond yields have continued to push higher and the US dollar has climbed with them. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are continuing to adjust to an outlook where the US economy is growing faster than expected, and how that could push out the path of easing from the Fed. Whilst trading has been thin on very little data, get ready for a deluge today. On the home front, Australian wages data, along with Chinese activity data, Japan’s GDP, UK employment, Canada’s CPI and US retail sales. When it rains it pours. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Slow moves, thin trade ahead of data splurge

Monday 14th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded positively to softer than expected US CPI last week, but the dial was turned back quite a bit on Friday when producer prices showed an unexpected increase, particularly in the services sector. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s still an open question about how much wage growth and nominal demand are in keeping with the expected fall in inflation. Bond yields rose markedly in the UK as GDP came in higher than expected, suggesting the BoE will want to do more to slow demand there. A quiet session lies ahead, but we take you through the data to look out for this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>Markets responded positively to softer than expected US CPI last week, but the dial was turned back quite a bit on Friday when producer prices showed an unexpected increase, particularly in the services sector. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s still an open question about how much wage growth and nominal demand are in keeping with the expected fall in inflation. Bond yields rose markedly in the UK as GDP came in higher than expected, suggesting the BoE will want to do more to slow demand there. A quiet session lies ahead, but we take you through the data to look out for this week. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Not out of the woods yet

Friday 11th August 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Please click here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.We are in the midst of the Australian reporting season, so what does it hold for Australian businesses and the share market? Gemma Dale is director, self-managed super funds and investor behaviour at NAB Trade. She joins Phil on this weekend’s podcast. They talk about how global events are playing on local shares, the role of tech in Australia, the impact inflation on growth businesses and finding the high “moat” businesses. If you are struggling to value businesses in these uncertain times, this weekend’s podcast is worth 15minutes of your time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th August 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/CIB-podcast-disclaimer-aug-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>.Please <a href="https://click.research.nab.com.au/?qs=e77dcced6b0f4ae632892f5bd72b8ff6f90075f60f6c7092f3e91b78b82b88a2d3d54513a96288bd0c5510275028cab2d93e575c787e697c" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">click here</a> to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.We are in the midst of the Australian reporting season, so what does it hold for Australian businesses and the share market? Gemma Dale is director, self-managed super funds and investor behaviour at NAB Trade. She joins Phil on this weekend’s podcast. They talk about how global events are playing on local shares, the role of tech in Australia, the impact inflation on growth businesses and finding the high “moat” businesses. If you are struggling to value businesses in these uncertain times, this weekend’s podcast is worth 15minutes of your time. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Weekend Edition: Australian shares – destination unknown?

Friday August 11th 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation has eased, by almost any measure you care to use, and jobless claims are heading the direction the Fed would like to see as well. All that is pointing to heightened expectations that they will hold at their next meeting. Yet bond yields are higher today. Why is that? NAB’s Ken Crompton says yields started rising after a weak 30-year Treasury auction a few hours after the CPI release, which shows there are some nerves about absorbing long duration government debt. There’s also discussion about further weakening of the Yen, UK’s GDP today and further economic indicators for the US later on today/tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday August 11th 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>US inflation has eased, by almost any measure you care to use, and jobless claims are heading the direction the Fed would like to see as well. All that is pointing to heightened expectations that they will hold at their next meeting. Yet bond yields are higher today. Why is that? NAB’s Ken Crompton says yields started rising after a weak 30-year Treasury auction a few hours after the CPI release, which shows there are some nerves about absorbing long duration government debt. There’s also discussion about further weakening of the Yen, UK’s GDP today and further economic indicators for the US later on today/tonight. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Inflation eases, Fed hold expected, but bond yields rise

Thursday 10th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs expected, latest CPI data from China shows a country suffering the impact of deflation. It raises many questions including, could lower prices help calm inflation elsewhere. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives some perspectives today. Plus, oil and gas prices rise, for different reasons. We examine that. Latest spending data shows Australians continue to spend more, whereas New Zealanders have put a cap on their spending. Does that reinforce the expectations for the respective central banks and what is that doing to the spread of trans-Tasman bond yields? The key metric today, everyone is hanging out for, is the US CPI, out late tonight Australia time.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>As expected, latest CPI data from China shows a country suffering the impact of deflation. It raises many questions including, could lower prices help calm inflation elsewhere. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives some perspectives today. Plus, oil and gas prices rise, for different reasons. We examine that. Latest spending data shows Australians continue to spend more, whereas New Zealanders have put a cap on their spending. Does that reinforce the expectations for the respective central banks and what is that doing to the spread of trans-Tasman bond yields? The key metric today, everyone is hanging out for, is the US CPI, out late tonight Australia time.  Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

China deflates, gas spikes, US CPI later

Wednesday 9th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a bad session for banks in the US and Italy. NAB’s Tayor Nugent says there are three things that have sucked the optimism out of markets in the last 24 hours, two relate to banks. Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating for some mid-sized banks in the US, whilst Italy has introduced a 40% windfall tax on its banks. The third hit to sentiment came form China’s trade numbers, which showed a substantial fall in exports and imports. Locally, the NAB Business Survey showed a resilient economy with rising wages, which could challenge the notion that the RBA can hold for longer.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>It’s been a bad session for banks in the US and Italy. NAB’s Tayor Nugent says there are three things that have sucked the optimism out of markets in the last 24 hours, two relate to banks. Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating for some mid-sized banks in the US, whilst Italy has introduced a 40% windfall tax on its banks. The third hit to sentiment came form China’s trade numbers, which showed a substantial fall in exports and imports. Locally, the NAB Business Survey showed a resilient economy with rising wages, which could challenge the notion that the RBA can hold for longer.  Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Chinas slowdown, foreign bank worries, more Aussie resilience

Tuesday 8th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABStocks are bouncing back in the US after a bad week last week. What’s the reason for this positive speculation? Hopes of a weakening of inflation in the US CPI and PPI numbers later in the week perhaps. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the moves in bond markets, also influenced by inflation speculation, mixed with some hawkish central bank speak and a fair amount of bond issuance this week. NAB’s monthly Business Survey is out today. Skye tells you what she’ll be looking out for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>Stocks are bouncing back in the US after a bad week last week. What’s the reason for this positive speculation? Hopes of a weakening of inflation in the US CPI and PPI numbers later in the week perhaps. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the moves in bond markets, also influenced by inflation speculation, mixed with some hawkish central bank speak and a fair amount of bond issuance this week. NAB’s monthly Business Survey is out today. Skye tells you what she’ll be looking out for. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Hope rises during the inflation waiting game.

Monday 7th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABLast week we did suggest there would be a response to Friday’s US payrolls numbers come what may, and that was certainly the case. Softer numbers and downward revisions saw bond yields retrace their steps on last week’s gains, as investors bet on less in the way of rate hikes. And yet, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, wages growth remains sticky and that will be a concern to the Fed. Canada also saw softer employment data pushing the Canadian dollar down on Friday. The Aussie climbed, but still saw a hefty fall last week. We look at why. Meanwhile a slow start to today – time then to go back and listen to our weekend edition, if you haven’t already. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>Last week we did suggest there would be a response to Friday’s US payrolls numbers come what may, and that was certainly the case. Softer numbers and downward revisions saw bond yields retrace their steps on last week’s gains, as investors bet on less in the way of rate hikes. And yet, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, wages growth remains sticky and that will be a concern to the Fed. Canada also saw softer employment data pushing the Canadian dollar down on Friday. The Aussie climbed, but still saw a hefty fall last week. We look at why. Meanwhile a slow start to today – time then to go back and listen to our weekend edition, if you haven’t already. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Payrolls sparks bond reversal

Friday 4th August 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Figures this week from Core Logic show that house prices in Australia continue to rise – five straight months now – but the speed is slowing. Bounce backs invariably have gone further than the prior downturn, but maybe that won’t happen this time. We’re well above pre-pandemic levels, but are we reaching a ceiling? Phil Dobbie puts that question to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research for Australia. In particular, can we expect a slower recovery in the investment market, as those searching for yield look elsewhere, where risk may be lower? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th August 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/CIB-podcast-disclaimer-aug-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>. Figures this week from Core Logic show that house prices in Australia continue to rise – five straight months now – but the speed is slowing. Bounce backs invariably have gone further than the prior downturn, but maybe that won’t happen this time. We’re well above pre-pandemic levels, but are we reaching a ceiling? Phil Dobbie puts that question to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research for Australia. In particular, can we expect a slower recovery in the investment market, as those searching for yield look elsewhere, where risk may be lower? Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Weekend Edition: Australia’s Property Recovery Slows

Friday 4th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields pushed higher in this session, with equities left going nowhere, at least until after hours trading with a couple of significant earnings results – Apple and Amazon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the bond sell-off is a conflation of several factors, including this week’s BoJ moves on YCC, the increased net borrowing from the US government and continued resilience is the US economy. There’s also the uncertainty around what to expect from the non-farm payrolls numbers tonight. If they echo the ADP numbers it’ll be an unpleasant surprise for the Fed. But there are further soft-landing signs for the US in data out overnight, including falling labour costs and rising productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>Bond yields pushed higher in this session, with equities left going nowhere, at least until after hours trading with a couple of significant earnings results – Apple and Amazon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the bond sell-off is a conflation of several factors, including this week’s BoJ moves on YCC, the increased net borrowing from the US government and continued resilience is the US economy. There’s also the uncertainty around what to expect from the non-farm payrolls numbers tonight. If they echo the ADP numbers it’ll be an unpleasant surprise for the Fed. But there are further soft-landing signs for the US in data out overnight, including falling labour costs and rising productivity. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Bond sell-off continues, BoE tightens, jobs numbers tonight

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for  the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and  the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS ten-year Treasuries hit a fresh high for the year. The downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch had a little to do with it. The ADP employment numbers also drove yields higher, but NAB’s David de Garis says it is likely the numbers ere a big overstatement, hence yields reversed a little. But there’s also the increase in bond issuances after the massively recalculated US government borrowing this week. All of this is making bonds more attractive than risk assets, with shares well down again. Looking forward, the Bank of England meets today, with the outside chance they’ll lift rates as much as 50 basis points. And the US Services ISM read will be important for those hoping for a no-lading future for the US economy. Plus, why is the Aussie dollar down again so much today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>US ten-year Treasuries hit a fresh high for the year. The downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch had a little to do with it. The ADP employment numbers also drove yields higher, but NAB’s David de Garis says it is likely the numbers ere a big overstatement, hence yields reversed a little. But there’s also the increase in bond issuances after the massively recalculated US government borrowing this week. All of this is making bonds more attractive than risk assets, with shares well down again. Looking forward, the Bank of England meets today, with the outside chance they’ll lift rates as much as 50 basis points. And the US Services ISM read will be important for those hoping for a no-lading future for the US economy. Plus, why is the Aussie dollar down again so much today? Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Fitch Ignored, ADP questioned, Treasuries peak, BoE could go 50

Wednesday 2nd August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Aussie dollar has been pulled down by three factors. First, the RBA decision to hold. Although most expected it, there was some pricing for a rise that didn’t materialise. Secondly, the US dollar is higher, on further hopes of a soft landing. US bond yields are also higher because higher than planned government borrowing will see a lot more being issued. Thirdly, China. The Caixin Manufacturing PMIs were soft, and there’s still no clear sign of an effective strategy for mitigating the country’s downturn. Cricket was not one of the reasons. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Aussie dollar has been pulled down by three factors. First, the RBA decision to hold. Although most expected it, there was some pricing for a rise that didn’t materialise. Secondly, the US dollar is higher, on further hopes of a soft landing. US bond yields are also higher because higher than planned government borrowing will see a lot more being issued. Thirdly, China. The Caixin Manufacturing PMIs were soft, and there’s still no clear sign of an effective strategy for mitigating the country’s downturn. Cricket was not one of the reasons. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

The Trifecta Pulling the Aussie Dollar Lower

Tuesday 1st August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Yen is back where it was a week ago, despite all the excitement towards the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's clear the BoJ didn’t want yields to rise too quickly and intervened to stop a sudden rise to 1%. Bond markets are suddenly less excited, so yields moved little in other parts of the world. The Aussie dollar rose over one percent overnight, along with Chinese equities, as more detail was fleshed out about what would be done to boost consumption in China, although there’s no evidence of any solid fiscal support yet. The RBA is the main focus today, with NAB expecting they will keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st August 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>The Yen is back where it was a week ago, despite all the excitement towards the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's clear the BoJ didn’t want yields to rise too quickly and intervened to stop a sudden rise to 1%. Bond markets are suddenly less excited, so yields moved little in other parts of the world. The Aussie dollar rose over one percent overnight, along with Chinese equities, as more detail was fleshed out about what would be done to boost consumption in China, although there’s no evidence of any solid fiscal support yet. The RBA is the main focus today, with NAB expecting they will keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Storm in a Japanese Tea Cup. Next stop, RBA.

Monday 31st July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBonds markets led moves in currency markets on Thursday on news of changes to Japan’s yield curve control. A lot of those changes were retraced on Friday, o the back of softer inflation numbers for Europe and the US. So, what exactly happened? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how a decision over Japanese bond yields impacted yields on bonds in many other markets, including Australia. And , even though moves were retraced somewhat on Friday on inflation data, will there be a longer lasting impact on bond yields elsewhere as a result of the BoJ policy decision? Listen in for a crash course on yield curve controls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 31st July 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>Bonds markets led moves in currency markets on Thursday on news of changes to Japan’s yield curve control. A lot of those changes were retraced on Friday, o the back of softer inflation numbers for Europe and the US. So, what exactly happened? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how a decision over Japanese bond yields impacted yields on bonds in many other markets, including Australia. And , even though moves were retraced somewhat on Friday on inflation data, will there be a longer lasting impact on bond yields elsewhere as a result of the BoJ policy decision? Listen in for a crash course on yield curve controls. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Why markets responded to BoJ’s easing control

Friday 28th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCurrency markets were particularly choppy overnight. NAB’s David de Garis says the moves were driven by the stronger than expected GDP read from the USD, which saw the US dollar much higher, pushing other major currencies – except the Yen – much lower. There was less of a response to the ECB, because there were no surprises. Rates were lifted by 25 basis points and Christine Lagarde spoke again about data dependency. Hard to get excited about that. But equities have taken a solid hit in the US. We can expect more volatility as inflation and GDP data is released for Europe today and early next week, plus rebalancing for the end of Q2. As Dave puts it on today’s podcast, expect things to be whippy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th July 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>Currency markets were particularly choppy overnight. NAB’s David de Garis says the moves were driven by the stronger than expected GDP read from the USD, which saw the US dollar much higher, pushing other major currencies – except the Yen – much lower. There was less of a response to the ECB, because there were no surprises. Rates were lifted by 25 basis points and Christine Lagarde spoke again about data dependency. Hard to get excited about that. But equities have taken a solid hit in the US. We can expect more volatility as inflation and GDP data is released for Europe today and early next week, plus rebalancing for the end of Q2. As Dave puts it on today’s podcast, expect things to be whippy! Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Whirlwind tour for markets as US GDP surprises

Thursday 27th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC lifted interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the ECB is expected to do the same tonight. But in each case, it’s unclear where the central banks go next. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA is unlikely to lift rates next week, given the softer than expected Australian CPI print yesterday. But again, it’s unclear where they go from there. There were no strong market moves during or after Jerome Powell’s Fed press conference this morning. He clearly didn’t want to appear too dovish or too hawkish, just data dependent. He did reiterate his personal belief that the US will navigate a soft landing. Listen in for more on what was said. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th July 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>The FOMC lifted interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the ECB is expected to do the same tonight. But in each case, it’s unclear where the central banks go next. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA is unlikely to lift rates next week, given the softer than expected Australian CPI print yesterday. But again, it’s unclear where they go from there. There were no strong market moves during or after Jerome Powell’s Fed press conference this morning. He clearly didn’t want to appear too dovish or too hawkish, just data dependent. He did reiterate his personal belief that the US will navigate a soft landing. Listen in for more on what was said. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Soft landing, slow road back

Wednesday 26th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a more substantial build in the Aussie rally yesterday, says NAB’s Ray Attrill which built further overnight. The reason, China, with the Politburo making announcements that suggest they are serious about stepping up macro policy support after the weak Q2 GDP numbers. That’s helped the Aussie and commodities. Meanwhile, the US is languishing in more evidence of a soft-landing, whilst Germany and most of Europe face a tough future. WE don’t have to wait long to see just how that will be reflected in central bank policies, starting with the FOMC first thing tomorrow. Strong earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th July 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>There was a more substantial build in the Aussie rally yesterday, says NAB’s Ray Attrill which built further overnight. The reason, China, with the Politburo making announcements that suggest they are serious about stepping up macro policy support after the weak Q2 GDP numbers. That’s helped the Aussie and commodities. Meanwhile, the US is languishing in more evidence of a soft-landing, whilst Germany and most of Europe face a tough future. WE don’t have to wait long to see just how that will be reflected in central bank policies, starting with the FOMC first thing tomorrow. Strong earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft too. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

A shot in the arm for China boosts the Aussie and commodities

Tuesday 25th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are still expecting that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle, with equity markets continuing to push higher today. But what if the Fed sounds particularly hawkish this week? And what if the plethora of big tech earnings results come in much weaker than expected? It could be a choppy second half to the week. PMIs for Europe came in weaker than expected, and NAB’s Skye Masters says that opens up the question about what the ECB does after this week’s meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th July 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>Markets are still expecting that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle, with equity markets continuing to push higher today. But what if the Fed sounds particularly hawkish this week? And what if the plethora of big tech earnings results come in much weaker than expected? It could be a choppy second half to the week. PMIs for Europe came in weaker than expected, and NAB’s Skye Masters says that opens up the question about what the ECB does after this week’s meeting. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

More irrational exuberance?

Monday 24th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC, the ECB and Bank of Japan all meet this week. No change of direction is expected from the Bank of Japan despite their sticky core CPI number last week. The FOMC and ECB are both expected to lift rates, but does it end there? That’s a question put to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, on a day when we will be festooned with data – the flash PMIs are out for the US, Japan, UK, Euro area, France and Japan. Will they factor into central bank decision making? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th July 2024<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>The FOMC, the ECB and Bank of Japan all meet this week. No change of direction is expected from the Bank of Japan despite their sticky core CPI number last week. The FOMC and ECB are both expected to lift rates, but does it end there? That’s a question put to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, on a day when we will be festooned with data – the flash PMIs are out for the US, Japan, UK, Euro area, France and Japan. Will they factor into central bank decision making? Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Lifting rates this week? Yes, Yes, No. 

Friday 21st July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are back to worrying about jobs data, it seems. Aussie yields rose after yesterday’s much stronger than expected employment numbers. The Aussie dollar is higher, even against a rising US dollar, which is also in part down to job concerns after a fall in unemployment claims last week. NAB’s David de Garis says we shouldn’t get too carried away by one week’s report on jobless claims, which are known for their volatility. UK retail numbers are expected to fall again today, but it’s an economy that keeps surprising us. And Japan’s CPI are out, but are unlikely to change the direction of the BoJ anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st July 2023<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a> <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</a>Markets are back to worrying about jobs data, it seems. Aussie yields rose after yesterday’s much stronger than expected employment numbers. The Aussie dollar is higher, even against a rising US dollar, which is also in part down to job concerns after a fall in unemployment claims last week. NAB’s David de Garis says we shouldn’t get too carried away by one week’s report on jobless claims, which are known for their volatility. UK retail numbers are expected to fall again today, but it’s an economy that keeps surprising us. And Japan’s CPI are out, but are unlikely to change the direction of the BoJ anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Too many jobs for central banks liking

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