Dollar Collapse

Debt is still growing way faster than GDP. Therefore, we're just digging a bigger hole. For most of the past 6 months it looked like we had a real recovery going. But that was an illusion. The Atlanta Fed has lowered it's 1Q Growth Projection to less than 1 percent. That's a recessionary number that won't help the economy create new jobs or to create new industries or service new debt. The debt to gdp ratio continues to increase. Unless we radically increase worldwide growth rates, we're stuck on a treadmill and a crisis will eventually occur.

John writes, "This weekend’s Paris attacks, occurring in the middle of one of history’s largest mass-migrations, has the feel of uncharted territory. But it’s actually an eerie echo of something that happened nearly two thousand years ago in more-or-less the same place.According to some historians, the fall of the Roman Empire wasn’t pre-ordained. By AD 300 it had its problems, including far-flung, hard-to-defend borders and recurring currency crises, but was generally stable and prosperous. Then a new power arose in the East. The Huns were horse archers who could out-ride and out-shoot their neighbors, and they terrorized the Vandals and Goths who lived in what is now Germany and the Balkans, driving them west to Rome’s borders.Rome chose to let half a million “barbarians” enter, hoping to use them as soldiers and laborers. Instead, it found itself with invading armies and unstable, uncontrollable political coalitions. The complete story is winding, convoluted and full of unfamiliar names, but it ends with the division of the Empire into two parts and the destruction of the original, Italian half."Will the West figure it out?

Kerry and John discuss -News from China says that the world's largest aluminum producer, China Hongqiao Group,  is on the brink of insolvency. This is a company that's nearly twice the size of Alcoa. It's been showing amazing growth and profit numbers for year. Now it turns out that they've been relying upon Chicom accounting and the profits were fraudulent and illusory. The company is begging for a government bailout to avoid civil unrest. Have we reached the point where everything is too big to fail? Perhaps, but then eventually the party that bails everyone out will wind up failing as well. Get set and buckle your seatbelt for that day may soon be upon us. Especially if Marine LePen triumphs in the upcoming French elections. The same people who said Brexit couldn't pass and were all in a lather about President Hillary Clinton are saying LePen's an outside long shot at best. But the communist party candidate has been rising in the polls as well, now sitting at 19%. This is shaping up to be a battle of the extremists and whomever wins will immediately go after the Euro.

John discussed two alarming trends taking place right now. First, tech is getting cheaper and therefore, there's less and less reason to buy expensive Apple products. Will the Apple Cachet carry them through slowing economies worldwide? Most of their profits come from the iPhone. And then we have a slowing China with more and more defaults taking place. Will this also result in people looking for tech on the cheap? And what will it mean for the Chinese and World Economies?

In Greek plays the authors were never sure how to write the ending. They used a technique known as the deus ex machine, now referred to as the Hand of God to magically solve the seemingly unsolvable. John asks if the Fed is not modern man's deus ex machine. But perhaps they're running out of their magical god-like powers. How will they save Kentucky or Illinois's pension plans, or the thousands of other public pension plans that are heading towards insolvency? The answer isn't yet known, but perhaps the deus ex machine is being dusted off now.

John writes, "Between that Russian plane being taken down by a soda can bomb and the recent Paris attacks, travel is losing some of its appeal. Last night, for instance, I was at a party talking to a friend who’s retiring soon. When asked about his plans, he said he’d love to visit Italy, where he has some relatives. But not right now. “There’s a lot to see right here in the Pacific Northwest,” he said. “And you don’t have to fly to get there.”With less tourism comes less trade, and with less trade comes less growth — as if the already-overleveraged and sputtering global economy needed another push towards the edge. See Container freight rates plummet 70% in 3 weeks.And there's news from a pig farm in China that there's a potential super bug epidemic brewing, for which there is no cure. Listen on and get the scoop.

John writes, "This weekend’s Paris attacks, occurring in the middle of one of history’s largest mass-migrations, has the feel of uncharted territory. But it’s actually an eerie echo of something that happened nearly two thousand years ago in more-or-less the same place.According to some historians, the fall of the Roman Empire wasn’t pre-ordained. By AD 300 it had its problems, including far-flung, hard-to-defend borders and recurring currency crises, but was generally stable and prosperous. Then a new power arose in the East. The Huns were horse archers who could out-ride and out-shoot their neighbors, and they terrorized the Vandals and Goths who lived in what is now Germany and the Balkans, driving them west to Rome’s borders.Rome chose to let half a million “barbarians” enter, hoping to use them as soldiers and laborers. Instead, it found itself with invading armies and unstable, uncontrollable political coalitions. The complete story is winding, convoluted and full of unfamiliar names, but it ends with the division of the Empire into two parts and the destruction of the original, Italian half."Will the West figure it out?

Inflation is back, thanks to the past year's global debt and money printing binge. Meanwhile populist politicians are gaining traction in Europe, threatening both the European Union and the eurozone. The world has never seen this combination of excessive financial leverage and widespread political upheaval, so the next few years might be bad for most financial assets and great for real things like gold and silver.

The news is slow. Not much coming out of Trump. Not much coming out of Europe. Outside of the Academy Awards debacle last night, there's not much going on. We're due for something to happen shortly. Could it be the calm before the storm? John believes that the currency crisis is just around the corner, the question is which corner? We've been waiting a long time for it.

A new administration means new policies. But the only up to a point. Debt will continue to soar, which means financial instability will only intensify. And the business cycle will do its thing regardless of who's in office -- which means a another downturn is coming. So strap in. A return to the Great Recession or something much worse is on the horizon.

Since the presidential election, US equities have been soaring – which is reminiscent of 1999 and 2006 when investors decided that “this time it’s different” and were therefore willing to buy stocks at pretty much any price. Like those previous bubbles, today’s will end badly, probably in 2017. Gold, on the other hand should do just fine.

It's rare for the world to worry about Italy. But Sunday's referendum has the global Establishment on the edge of its seat. The worst case scenario -- from the Establishment point of view -- is the vote going against the government, causing the Prime Minister to resign and be replaced by an anti-euro, anti-EU party that throws sends Italian banks into crisis and the European economy into chaos.

The presidential campaign is just about over, which means the US will soon start reversing out the surprisingly good numbers it has reported lately. Gold is still looking for a bottom and could find one before year-end. And the groundwork is being laid for the next generation of experimental monetary and fiscal policies, which makes 2017 an epic year for financial instability.

Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, the Italian banks...it's getting ugly across the pond and the worst is yet to come. Here's a brief explanation of why that's so, including derivatives, ridiculous capital rules, dumb lending practices and, of course, negative interest rates. If you're looking for short sale candidates, Europe's banks are a great place to start.

Last week the Fed found out what will happen if it raises rates: The global financial markets will melt down. So this morning a new member of the central bank's seemingly endless army of talking heads said some soothing words, which stabilized the US stock prices. Now the question is when the Fed will finally capitulate, abandon the rate hike threats and join the global inflationary party. After last week, that's likely to come soon. Then it's off to the races for real assets. Get that gold and silver now, before it's too late.

It's becoming clear to a growing number of people that the world's central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, have no idea what they're doing. Yet they keep on making threats, predictions and other nonsensical statements, most of which are quickly exposed as such. Is this the end off their credibility -- and the beginning of gold's new bull market?

Normally, when one asset class is expensive others are cheap, making it reasonably easy to use historical relationships to decide where to invest. That's not the case today. Every major asset class, including stocks, bonds and even precious metals, are looking at best temporarily overbought by past standards, and at worst (in the case of stocks and bonds), wildly overvalued. Here's a discussion with some tentative advice.

Terrorists and other crazies have figured out that they don't need guns. Trucks, axes and machetes will do just fine. Meanwhile, political parties around the world are imploding or otherwise descending into chaos. Welcome to the new normal, where excessive debt makes the old ways of muddling through impossible. Advice on how to invest for the inevitable bust will follow shortly.

Brexit looked like the end of the world -- until people figured out that central banks would have to ease in response. Then markets turned positively jubilant with US stocks, for example, hitting record highs. The result: A world of mounting debts, weekly terrorist attacks and even military coup attempts alongside financial assets priced for perfection. Wonder which side is right?

Italian banks are collapsing, with Germany's Deutsche Bank not far behind. Anti-euro parties now lead polling in France and Italy. Interest rates around the world are plunging. Add it all up and it's clear that the developed world is heading into a very tough patch with results ranging from slower growth all the way out to global financial crisis. Only gold is immune to what's coming.