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Cover image of 風蕭蕭 ShiuShiu Podcast

風蕭蕭 ShiuShiu Podcast

香港人民廣播電台|香港人網:風蕭蕭,蕭鼓聲中/問乾坤,風也蕭蕭|謎迷香港:蕭遙遊 Podcast. 綺羅堆裡埋神劍,簫鼓聲中老客星。天南地北,問乾坤何處可容狂客?

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2013.07.30Part1[梁振英不如老董,長毛怒插囤地波,大球場揚威海外]

梁振英不如老董,長毛怒插囤地波,大球場揚威海外2013年07月30日主持人:蕭若元,趙善軒,林匡正

31 Jul 2013

Rank #1

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2013.07.30Part2[薄熙來最後一曲,大陸不會破產只會革命]

薄熙來最後一曲,大陸不會破產只會革命2013年07月30日主持人:蕭若元,趙善軒,林匡正

31 Jul 2013

Rank #2

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2013.07.30Part3[金三角鴉片大王羅星漢,中國歷代政治制度:秦之統一]

金三角鴉片大王羅星漢,中國歷代政治制度:秦之統一2013年07月30日主持人:蕭若元,趙善軒,林匡正

31 Jul 2013

Rank #3

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2013.07.25Part1[陳茂波講大話,侯志強成功靠父幹]

陳茂波講大話,侯志強成功靠父幹2013年07月25日主持人:蕭若元,蘇浩,Henry

31 Jul 2013

Rank #4

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2013.07.25Part3[王林魔術騙案,成王敗寇:身體語言]

王林魔術騙案,成王敗寇:身體語言2013年07月25日主持人:蕭若元,蘇浩,Henry

31 Jul 2013

Rank #5

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2013.07.25Part2[劉慧卿誣蔑人力,夾實佔中B隊]

劉慧卿誣蔑人力,夾實佔中B隊2013年07月25日主持人:蕭若元,蘇浩,Henry

31 Jul 2013

Rank #6

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2013.07.23Part3[長毛毓民應用文,全民制憲的真相,中國歷代政治制度:秦始皇的速亡]

長毛毓民應用文,全民制憲的真相,中國歷代政治制度:秦始皇的速亡2013年07月23日主持人:蕭若元,趙善軒,林匡正

24 Jul 2013

Rank #7

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2013.07.23Part2[預言李氏王朝的衰亡,國企取代華資,大明皇朝的現實寫照,中國經濟撞上萬里長城,日本大選]

預言李氏王朝的衰亡,國企取代華資,大明皇朝的現實寫照,中國經濟撞上萬里長城,日本大選2013年07月23日主持人:蕭若元,趙善軒,林匡正Paul Krugman: China’s economy has hit its Great WallPaul Krugman, The New York Times | 13/07/20China’s new woes are the last thing the rest of us needed, writes economist Paul Krugman.Tomohiro Ohsumi/BloombergChina’s new woes are the last thing the rest of us needed, writes economist Paul Krugman.All economic data are best viewed as a peculiarly boring genre of science fiction, but Chinese data are even more fictional than most. Add a secretive government, a controlled press and the sheer size of the country, and it’s harder to figure out what’s really happening in China than it is in any other major economy.Yet the signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble. We’re not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country’s whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.Start with the data, unreliable as they may be. What immediately jumps out at you when you compare China with almost any other economy, aside from its rapid growth, is the lopsided balance between consumption and investment. All successful economies devote part of their current income to investment rather than consumption, so as to expand their future ability to consume. China, however, seems to invest only to expand its future ability to invest even more. America, admittedly on the high side, devotes 70% of its gross domestic product to consumption; for China, the number is only half that high, while almost half of GDP is invested.How is that even possible? What keeps consumption so low, and how have the Chinese been able to invest so much without (until now) running into sharply diminishing returns? The answers are the subject of intense controversy. The story that makes the most sense to me, however, rests on an old insight by the economist W. Arthur Lewis, who argued that countries in the early stages of economic development typically have a small modern sector alongside a large traditional sector containing huge amounts of “surplus labour” — underemployed peasants making at best a marginal contribution to overall economic output.The existence of this surplus labour, in turn, has two effects. First, for a while such countries can invest heavily in new factories, construction and so on without running into diminishing returns, because they can keep drawing in new labour from the countryside. Second, competition from this reserve army of surplus labour keeps wages low even as the economy grows richer. Indeed, the main thing holding down Chinese consumption seems to be that Chinese families never see much of the income being generated by the country’s economic growth. Some of that income flows to a politically connected elite; but much of it simply stays bottled up in businesses, many of them state-owned enterprises.It’s all very peculiar by our standards, but it worked for several decades. Now, however, China has hit the “Lewis point” — to put it crudely, it’s running out of surplus peasants.That should be a good thing. Wages are rising; finally, ordinary Chinese are starting to share in the fruits of growth. But it also means that the Chinese economy is suddenly faced with the need for drastic “rebalancing” — the jargon phrase of the moment. Investment is now running into sharply diminishing returns and is going to drop drastically no matter what the government does; consumer spending must rise dramatically to take its place. The question is whether this can happen fast enough to avoid a nasty slump.And the answer, increasingly, seems to be no. The need for rebalancing has been obvious for years, but China just kept putting off the necessary changes, instead boosting the economy by keeping the currency undervalued and flooding it with cheap credit. (Since someone is going to raise this issue: No, this bears very little resemblance to the Federal Reserve’s policies here.) These measures postponed the day of reckoning but also ensured that this day would be even harder when it finally came. And now it has arrived.How big a deal is this for the rest of us? At market values — which is what matters for the global outlook — China’s economy is still only modestly bigger than Japan’s; it’s around half the size of either the U.S. or the European Union. So it’s big but not huge, and, in ordinary times, the world could probably take China’s troubles in stride.Unfortunately, these aren’t ordinary times: China is hitting its Lewis point at the same time that Western economies are going through their “Minsky moment,” the point when overextended private borrowers all try to pull back at the same time, and in so doing provoke a general slump. China’s new woes are the last thing the rest of us needed.No doubt many readers are feeling some intellectual whiplash. Just the other day we were afraid of the Chinese. Now we’re afraid for them. But our situation has not improved.New York Times News Service

24 Jul 2013

Rank #8

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2013.07.23Part1[陳茂波就囤地,李氏皇朝最終章-賣百佳]

陳茂波就囤地,李氏皇朝最終章-賣百佳2013年07月23日主持人:蕭若元,趙善軒,林匡正

24 Jul 2013

Rank #9

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2013.07.18Part2[同志唔捐得血?,群眾運動原則]

同志唔捐得血?,群眾運動原則 2013年07月18日主持人:蕭若元,蘇浩,Henry

24 Jul 2013

Rank #10