This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	Cost of capital. What does its rise mean for credit? 2.	U.S. consumers. Will they continue to spend?  3.	Strong demand for credit. Why is it happening at this point of the credit cycle? 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	Cost of capital. What does its rise mean for credit? 2.	U.S. consumers. Will they continue to spend? 3.	Strong demand for credit. Why is it happening at this point of the credit cycle?

Higher Cost of Capital, Consumer Spend, and Demand for Credit

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Inflection point.  We are at one, we’ll tell you which way we’re headed. 2.	Big bank color.  What are the largest lenders seeing?   3.	Ed Altman weighs in.  He’s worried about one thing.  We’ll clue you in.   

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Inflection point. We are at one, we’ll tell you which way we’re headed. 2.	Big bank color. What are the largest lenders seeing? 3.	Ed Altman weighs in. He’s worried about one thing. We’ll clue you in.

Inflection Point, Big Bank Color, Ed Altman’s View

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	CarMax and Albertsons. What do they say about consumer sentiment? 2.	Credit crunch. While we wait for the SLOOS, here’s an early look.  3.	Recession probabilities. Can 100% equal 35%? 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	CarMax and Albertsons. What do they say about consumer sentiment? 2.	Credit crunch. While we wait for the SLOOS, here’s an early look. 3.	Recession probabilities. Can 100% equal 35%?

CarMax and Albertson’s, Credit Crunch, and Recession Probabilities

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	Community and regional bank business model. We examine it. 2.	Bad news rising. Is this now a trend?   3.	Banking crisis. Jamie Dimon says it’s not over. We’ll have a look. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	Community and regional bank business model. We examine it. 2.	Bad news rising. Is this now a trend? 3.	Banking crisis. Jamie Dimon says it’s not over. We’ll have a look.

Banking’s Business Model, Bad News Rising, Banking Crisis

This week, our 3 Things are:  1.Market sentiment. It’s fluid. 2.	Earnings season is back. What will the banks say?  3.	Chinese growth. It’s positive … right? 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.Market sentiment. It’s fluid. 2.	Earnings season is back. What will the banks say? 3.	Chinese growth. It’s positive … right?

Sentiment Shifts, Earnings on Deck, and Chinese Growth

This week, our 3 Things are:  1.Protecting bank depositors. We think that’s happening ... 2.	Uncertainty. It’s back and it’s unwelcome.  3.	AT1s. Is this the end of a market? 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.Protecting bank depositors. We think that’s happening ... 2.	Uncertainty. It’s back and it’s unwelcome. 3.	AT1s. Is this the end of a market?

Depositor Safety, Unwanted Uncertainty, AT1s

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. The glass is suddenly half empty. We’ll walk you through what’s changed. 2.	Consumer spending. How long can it continue? 3.	Silver linings. John McEnroe might say, “You can’t be serious!” But they’re there.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The glass is suddenly half empty. We’ll walk you through what’s changed. 2.	Consumer spending. How long can it continue? 3.	Silver linings. John McEnroe might say, “You can’t be serious!” But they’re there.

Half Empty Glass, Consumer Spending, and Silver Linings.

This week, our 3 Things are:  1.	Long and variable lags. Are markets priced for them? 2.	Event risk. How should we view it in this environment? 3.	High yield. Is there value at this point?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	Long and variable lags. Are markets priced for them? 2.	Event risk. How should we view it in this environment? 3.	High yield. Is there value at this point?

Long and Variable Lags, Event Risk, and Value in High Yield

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Private credit. What's behind the growth?2. Consumer expectations. Just how meaningful are they?3. Housing. The latest in this all-important leading indicator.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Private credit. What's behind the growth?2. Consumer expectations. Just how meaningful are they?3. Housing. The latest in this all-important leading indicator.

Private Credit, Consumer Expectations, and Housing

Larry Summers

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Walmart earnings. Its forward guidance is not the stuff of no landing. 2.	Larry Summers. How to avoid a Wile E. Coyote moment. 3.	Affordable energy. Remember what comes down can go up.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Walmart earnings. Its forward guidance is not the stuff of no landing. 2.	Larry Summers. How to avoid a Wile E. Coyote moment. 3.	Affordable energy. Remember what comes down can go up.

Walmart Guidance, Larry Summers’ Warning, Energy Risk

Each week, KBRA's Chief Strategist, Van Hesser will address three things that caught his attention in credit markets that are relevant to credit investors.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.Corporate margins. They’re falling. Should we worry? 2.	Earnings growth. It’s falling. What does this signal? 3.	Consumer wealth. It is constructive overall, but not for everyone. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.Corporate margins. They’re falling. Should we worry? 2.	Earnings growth. It’s falling. What does this signal? 3.	Consumer wealth. It is constructive overall, but not for everyone.

Corporate Margins, Earnings Growth, and Consumer Wealth

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	Where is the recession? The answer lies in the uniqueness of this cycle. 2.	Lender sentiment. Banks and markets have diverged. 3.	Stability. It has returned to risk markets.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	Where is the recession? The answer lies in the uniqueness of this cycle. 2.	Lender sentiment. Banks and markets have diverged. 3.	Stability. It has returned to risk markets.

The Missing Recession, Lender Sentiment, and the Return of Stability

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. The Fed. Something for everyone.   2.	China. More thoughts on its impact on credit. 3.	Market tone. It's better, for now. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The Fed. Something for everyone. 2.	China. More thoughts on its impact on credit. 3.	Market tone. It's better, for now.

Fed-speak, China and Inflation, and Market Tone

This week, our 3 Things are:  1.	Hard data confirming slowdown. It’s here. 2.	Earnings recession. It’s not good for credit, but magnitude matters. 3.	Market-implied recession models. They can be misleading.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.	Hard data confirming slowdown. It’s here. 2.	Earnings recession. It’s not good for credit, but magnitude matters. 3.	Market-implied recession models. They can be misleading.

Hard Data Arrives, Earnings Recession, and Recession Models

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. Deterioration. When will it show up?  2.	Unemployment. When (and where) will it show up? 3.	Big bank results. We’ll summarize what the biggest players in credit are seeing. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Deterioration. When will it show up? 2.	Unemployment. When (and where) will it show up? 3.	Big bank results. We’ll summarize what the biggest players in credit are seeing.

Waiting for Deterioration, Low Unemployment, and Big Banks on Credit

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. A softer landing. How possible is it?  2.	Corporate margins. Contracting, yes, but how meaningfully to credit? 3.	Services demand. The latest data says it’s falling—what this means for spreads.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. A softer landing. How possible is it? 2.	Corporate margins. Contracting, yes, but how meaningfully to credit? 3.	Services demand. The latest data says it’s falling—what this means for spreads.

Soft Landing Odds, Falling Margins, and Services Drop

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. A new credit paradigm. It’s here and it’s different. 2.	China’s reopening. That’s good, right? Maybe… 3.	Labor market. What’s good for consumer finance might not be good for economic growth. We’ll explain. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. A new credit paradigm. It’s here and it’s different. 2.	China’s reopening. That’s good, right? Maybe… 3.	Labor market. What’s good for consumer finance might not be good for economic growth. We’ll explain.

A New Paradigm, China’s Reopening, and Labor’s Mixed Message

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. Growth concerns.  Inflation concerns are so 2022. 2.	Bank valuations.  What those say about this cycle.   3.	Treasury volatility.  It should settle down. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Growth concerns. Inflation concerns are so 2022. 2.	Bank valuations. What those say about this cycle. 3.	Treasury volatility. It should settle down.

Concerns, Bank Valuations, and Treasury Volatility

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. KBRA’s European Securitization Survey. Fresh insight into investor sentiment. 2.	Credit’s canary in the coal mine. A Bloomberg survey shows what investors are watching.  3.	Consumer borrowing. It’s rising sharply. It fits the Fed’s narrative.  

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. KBRA’s European Securitization Survey. Fresh insight into investor sentiment. 2.	Credit’s canary in the coal mine. A Bloomberg survey shows what investors are watching. 3.	Consumer borrowing. It’s rising sharply. It fits the Fed’s narrative.

KBRA’s Survey, Leveraged Loan Watch, and Consumer Borrowing Spike

This week, our 3 Things are:  1. Credit spreads. Why aren’t they wider? 2.	Catalysts. We’ll explore those to the upside and those to the downside.  3.	Economic indicators. We’ll walk through those worth paying attention to.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Credit spreads. Why aren’t they wider? 2.	Catalysts. We’ll explore those to the upside and those to the downside. 3.	Economic indicators. We’ll walk through those worth paying attention to.

3 Things in Credit: December 2, 2022

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