© 2019 OwlTail All rights reserved. OwlTail only owns the podcast episode rankings. Copyright of underlying podcast content is owned by the publisher, not OwlTail. Audio is streamed directly from Barron's servers. Downloads goes directly to publisher.
I've Had Better. [Contains mature themes] He reached out because a year after the discovery of his affair, they aren’t fighting anymore, but they certainly haven’t moved on. Esther guides them towards a more honest conversation, and a revelation about their communication.
01: John Gottman - How to Be a Master of Relationship. Welcome! My guest today is Dr. John Gottman, one of the world's leading experts on how to have an amazing relationship. He and his wife Julie currently operate The Gottman Institute in Seattle, offering numerous resources and training. Join us for a deep dive into their work! Dr. Gottman’s findings are largely based on the conclusions he has made over many years of research and observations of couples. He and his team have how to be a master (and avoid being a disaster) at relationship. Dr. Gottman discusses the following topics: “The Sound Relationship House” - what is the foundation for a relationship that lasts? Learn the importance of having high expectations in relationship, and also uncover ways in which what you'd *think* would be good for your relationship is actually counterproductive. Dr. Gottman identifies Styles of Confronting Conflict: Volatile, Validating, and Conflict-Avoiding. All of these conflict styles can lead to successful relationships. Learn what to do if you and your partner are mismatched in your conflict style. Dr. Gottman discusses “bids” we make with our partner as an attempt to connect. Are you a "yes" to your partner's bids? Are they a yes to yours? “Bids” that fail are often the beginnings of conflict. How do things change if you start paying attention and responding to your partner's bids in a positive way? Mindfulness is the key to noticing these bids and avoiding conflict. “Small Things Often” - a reminder to turn toward these bids in the small moments of life. Dr. Gottman's concept of startup is a way of thinking about what you bring to your interactions with your partner. Do you start in a place that's already positive, and thinking highly of your partner? Or do you start in a place where you are suspecting the worst of your partner? Build up your emotional bank account with small compliments (deposits). According to John, there are three phases of any relationship: Falling in Love (initial), Building Trust (middle), and Cherishing Your Partner (long-term intimacy). What phase are you in? The key to success is using strategies that are appropriate for where you are in your relationship. The key to more sex is having the freedom to say "no" without being punished for it. If refusing sex can actually have a positive payoff, then it will actually lead to a couple having a more satisfying (and frequent) sex life. Do you ever wonder how to make a good relationship GREAT? Focus on cherishing your partner. What if YOU are the only partner who wants to make changes? Can you make a difference? Absolutely. Learn how shifts in your approach can have a profound affect on your relationship. The key to success in a relationship isn't that nothing bad ever happens. It's how well you as a couple learn how to repair after those things occur. John discusses how you can learn to repair, and the positive effects that has on long-term relationships. Do you know how to decide if you’re in a bad relationship? When you're with your partner, are you at your best? Or are you veering off towards your worst? Gottman offers this simple guideline for how to know whether to stay or go. Also what to think about BEFORE you decide that you're on the wrong path. Join us for these topics and more. Dr. Gottman has practical information that can improve your relationship TODAY! Links and Resources: What Makes Love Last: How to Build Trust and Avoid Betrayal by Dr. John Gottman The Gottman Institute, Seattle www.gottman.com www.neilsattin.com/gottman (visit to download a .pdf of this episode guide along with John Gottman's "Dreams in Conflict" exercise to help couples who seem to have irreconcilable differences. You can also text “PASSION” to 33444 for instructions on how to download the guide. If you download the guide within the first week of this show's airing, you will also qualify for a chance to win a free signed copy of Dr. Gottman’s book "What Makes Love Last".) The Relationship Alive Community on Facebook Amazing intro/outro music provided courtesy of: The Railsplitters - Check them Out!
Turning Kids Into Grown-Ups. Parenting is fraught with uncertainty, changing with each generation. This hour, TED speakers share ideas about raising kids and how — despite our best efforts — we're probably still doing it wrong. Guests include former Stanford dean Julie Lythcott-Haims, former firefighter Caroline Paul, author Peggy Orenstein, psychologist Dr. Aala El-Khani, and poet Sarah Kay.
Parenting Doesn't Matter (Or Not As Much As You Think). The multibillion-pound parenting industry tells us we can all shape our children to be joyful, resilient and successful. But what if it’s all bunk? Intelligence Squared are bringing together a panel of top geneticists and parenting experts to explore just how important parenting is.Arguing in favour of the motion are Robert Plomin, Psychologist and Professor of Behavioural Genetics at the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience at King’s College London; and Stuart Ritchie, Lecturer in the Social Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre at King’s College London.Arguing against the motion were Susan Pawlby, a developmental Clinical Psychologist with over 30 years of experience working with mothers and babies both in clinical and research contexts; and Ann Pleshette Murphy, a therapist, parenting counsellor and advocate for young children and their families.The debate was chaired by Xand van Tulleken, a medical doctor and broadcaster who has presented numerous shows for the BBC and Channel 4, often alongside his identical twin brother Chris. For information regarding your data privacy, visit acast.com/privacy
Rank #1: 15: Apple's Next Act. Host Alex Eule is joined by Barron's tech reporter Tae Kim to talk about how Apple lost its way and where it goes from here.The Readback is a weekly financial podcast from Barron's.
Rank #2: 14: Barron's Goes to Disneyland. Host Alex Eule is joined by senior writer Jack Hough, who recently sat down for a long interview with Disney CEO Bob Iger and got an exclusive tour of Disney's new Star Wars land. The Readback is a weekly podcast from Barron's.
Rank #1: Stocks Run Out of Steam Amid Myriad Events. September 19, 2019U.S. equities finished mixed after a choppy session, as investors weighed a host of monetary policy announcements released this week, the Fed's intervention in the overnight lending markets for a third-straight day, and continued upbeat domestic economic data.
Rank #2: Fed Cuts Rates, but Divided on Future Moves. September 18, 2019 U.S. equities finished mixed in choppy action after the Fed cut the target for its fed funds rate, as widely expected, but indicated division as to future actions.
Rank #1: The tech topics we aren’t talking about with NYTimes’ Kevin Roose. Sometimes it feels like tech is all we talk about these days. And it’s not just in conversation – our Google searches for buzzwords like blockchain and 5G are up over 1,000% in the past few years. But what topics aren’t we covering?New York Times technology columnist Kevin Roose is often the first to know. On this episode of The BID, Kevin discusses his learnings from the dark underbelly of the internet, how technology is influencing our politics and culture and his journey to using his phone less. This material is for informational purposes and is prepared by BlackRock, is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of date of publication and are subject to change. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable and are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not indicative of current or future results. This information provided is neither tax nor legal advice and investors should consult with their own advisors before making investment decisions. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.In the U.S., this material is intended for public distribution.In Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund. No securities regulators in Latin America have confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx.©2019 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
Rank #2: How China became a technology superpower. From companies like Alibaba and Tencent to artificial intelligence and the development of 5G technology, China has become one of the most vibrant hubs for technology in the world. But surprisingly, it’s all pretty recent. In 2010, only about one-third of China’s population was using the internet, compared to 71% in the U.S.How did China become a technology superpower, and how will the race move forward? On this episode of The BID, Rui Zhao, portfolio manager for Chinese equities, discusses the forces behind China’s technology dominance, and why the tech race may not need a winner.In the U.S., this material is intended for public distribution.In Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund. No securities regulators in Latin America have confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx.©2019 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
Rank #1: Monthly Market Update: December 2018. Dirk Hofschire, senior vice president, asset allocation research, discusses factors driving global financial markets in this podcast.
Rank #2: Monthly Market Update: November 2018. Dirk Hofschire and Lars Schuster discuss recent market developments, including the recent spike in volatility, affecting U.S. stocks.
Rank #1: Robots: Taking Jobs? Or Creating Them?. Robots are showing up everywhere. Most of the time, we don’t even realize it. In this episode, we will discuss the rapid development of artificial intelligence research, and what that means for human beings. Host Maneet Ahuja talks to three people who know a thing or two about robots. John Delano is the portfolio manager of the Oppenheimer Global Fund at OppenheimerFunds. He tells us about his investment philosophy, how robotics is affecting e-commerce, and why robots are in greater demand as the population ages.Jodi Forlizzi is an interaction designer, researcher and Director of the Human Computer Interaction Institute at Carnegie Mellon University. She tells us what counts as a robot, what kinds of robots are already in operation that we probably haven’t heard of, and whether robots can seem too lifelike. Claude Dinsmoor is the General Manager of Product Development at FANUC AMERICA, the US subsidiary of a major robot manufacturing company. Claude tells us about lights-out manufacturing, why robots are creating jobs, and all about industrial service robots.
Rank #2: Modern Medicine: Small Companies with Big Ideas. The healthcare industry is changing. A sector once known for pharma giants is now buzzing about smaller, more specialized companies that deliver personalized treatments. And the opportunities for growth and investment are huge. Host Maneet Ahuja talks to healthcare experts and biomedical pioneers, who offer insights on the future of healthcare and life-saving technologies.Máire Lane is a Senior Research Analyst on the Global Equity Team at OppenheimerFunds. She has a Ph.D. in Mathematics, with an expertise in the biotech and medical technology sectors. Magnus Nillson has a Ph.D. in Medical Science and is the CEO of XVIVO Perfusion, a medical technology company with nearly two decades of experience in organ transplants. Søren Tulstrup is President and CEO of Hansa Medical, a biopharmaceutical company focused on immunomodulatory enzymes for the treatment and prevention of rare autoimmune conditions and transplant rejection.Dr. Tiffany Vora is an educator, writer, research scientist, and entrepreneur. She is the Faculty Director and Vice Chair of Medicine and Digital Biology at Singularity University, a Silicon Valley think tank.
Rank #1: Skunk at the Garden Party. Renewed trade tensions between the U.S and China arrived in markets like a “skunk at the garden party,” according to David Joy, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial who has more than 40 years of experience in investment management. He tells co-hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan how he’s expecting markets to handle this pungent new arrival on the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast. Along with that skunk, Uber Technologies arrived at the garden party of public markets this week with its long-awaited initial public offering. Kathleen Smith, co-founder of Renaissance Capital and manager of the IPO exchange-traded fund, joins the podcast to assess Uber and the rest of the money-losing herd of unicorns that may make 2019 a record year for IPO issuance. As always, the hosts and guests finish up with a discussion of the craziest things they saw in markets this week.
Rank #2: Hong Kong. Yield Curve. Oh My.. Chaos in Hong Kong. A cross-asset market shock in Argentina. And that dreaded yield-curve inversion—a fleeting drop in 10-year U.S yields below 2-year rates—goes viral by creating panic-selling in the stock market. It was quite a week. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Global Markets Strategist Gabriela Santos joins this week's podcast to make sense of it all. Also joining hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan is Bloomberg cross-asset reporter Luke Kawa, who gives his take on the market volatility of August.Mentioned in this podcast:Countdown to Catastrophe? What the Yield Curve Means for Stock Bull MarketsEquities Are on ‘Borrowed Time’ as Recession Signal Nears InversionThe Weekly Fix: Recession or Japanification. Which Is Worse?
Rank #1: Ep. 10: Stock Market Wizard Mark Minervini On Finding Alpha. This week, successful growth investor Mark Minervini joined us for a discussion about current stock market conditions, his approach to position sizing and progressive exposure and his stock picking strategies. He looks at IBD-style stocks setting up, but there's one key difference in the way he seeks alpha. For the video version, show notes and charts, go to investors.com/podcast.
Rank #2: Ep. 18: This Approach Will Help You Find Stocks Ready To Explode. This week Tom O’Halloran of Lord Abbett joined us to talk about how we’re still in the early stages of the next technology revolution, meaning there are plenty of opportunities out there for investors. We discuss growth-oriented strategies for finding stocks primed to make big moves, and analyze MercadoLibre, Match Group and ServiceNow. For the video version, show notes and charts, visit investors.com/podcast.
Rank #1: Mark Miller: Less Investment Choice = Better Retirement Outcomes. Our guest on the podcast today is Mark Miller, a nationally recognized expert on trends in retirement and aging. Miller's work considers retirement holistically, including healthcare and Medicare, Social Security, retirement investing, midlife careers, and housing. Miller is a regular contributor to Morningstar.com, and he also writes about retirement matters for Reuters, The New York Times, and WealthManagement.com. In addition, Miller has written several books, including The Hard Times Guide to Retirement Security and his most recent book, Jolt: Stories of Trauma and Transformation. Background Information Mark Miller bio RetirementRevised newsletter RetirementRevised podcast Books by Mark Miller RetirementRevised Guides Mark Miller archive on Morningstar.com Related Links State of Retirement Preparedness in U.S. U.S. Retirement Savings: Statistics and Facts (Statista) "How Much Income Do Retirees Actually Have? Evaluating the Evidence from Five National Datasets," by Alicia H. Munnell and Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher (November 2018, Center for Retirement Research working paper) "How Retirement Readiness Varies by Gender and Family Status: A Retirement Savings Shortfall Assessment of Gen Xers," by Jack VanDerhei (Jan. 17, 2019, Employee Benefit Research Institute) "Retirement Savings Shortfalls: Evidence from EBRI's 2019 Retirement Security Projection Model," by Jack VanDerhei (March 7, 2019, EBRI) Perspectives on Retirement Readiness in the United States (May 13, 2016, SEC's Office of the Investor Advocate) 2019 Retirement Confidence Survey (EBRI) "Is There Really a Retirement Crisis?," Aron Szapiro and Christine Benz (May 7, 2019, Morningstar.com) "Retirement Prospects for the Millennials: What Is the Early Prognosis?," by Richard W. Johnson, Karen E. Smith, Damir Cosic, and Claire Xiaozhi Wang (November 2017, Center for Retirement Research working paper) "Retiring Earlier Than Planned: What Matters Most?," by Alicia H. Munnell, Matthew S. Rutledge, and Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher (February 2019, Center for Retirement Research working paper) The State of Work for Older Adults "Working Longer: Older Americans' Attitudes on Work and Retirement," by Jennifer Benz, Matt Sedensky, Trevor Tompson, and Jennifer Agiesta (2013, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research) "Surprising Reasons Boomers Are Working Longer," by Martha Deevy (Dec. 26, 2012, NextAvenue) "More Older Americans Are Working, and Working More, Than They Used To," by Drew DeSilver (June 20, 2016, Pew Research Fact Tank) "Why Working Till Whenever Is a Risky Retirement Strategy," by Mark Miller (May 16, 2019, The New York Times) "Should Working Longer Be a Part of Your Retirement Plan?" Mark Miller and Christine Benz (July 30, 2019, Morningstar.com) "Finding the Bright Side in a Graying U.S. Workforce," by Mark Miller (Jan. 17, 2019, RetirementRevised) "How Does Delayed Retirement Affect Mortality and Health?," by Alice Zulkarnain and Matthew S. Rutledge (October 2018, Center for Retirement Research working paper) Fixing Retirement at an Individual Level "How to Blend Work and Retirement," by Mark Miller (Sept. 2, 2018, RetirementRevised) "Treat Your Work As a Retirement Asset," by Mark Miller (June 25, 2019, Morningstar.com) "The Uptick in Annuities," by Mark Miller (May 28, 2019, Morningstar.com) "How to Bridge a Retirement Shortfall," by Christine Benz (Jan. 28, 2019, Morningstar.com) "How Life Expectancy Affects Retirement Planning," by Mark Miller (Feb. 19, 2019, Morningstar.com) "Women Need Better Advice, Earlier Planning," by Christopher Robbins (June 17, 2016, Financial Advisor) "How Much Can I Spend in Retirement? A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Income Strategies," by Wade D. Pfau (June 30, 2018, Retirement Insight and Trends) "Estimating the True Cost of Retirement," by David Blanchett (June 30, 2015, Retirement Insight and Trends) "Inflation-Linked SPIAs Are a Bad Deal," by David Blanchett (May 20, 2019, Advisor Perspectives) Social Security "Is It Time to Raise Social Security's Retirement Age?," by Mark Miller (March 14, 2019, RetirementRevised) Social Security Calculators Social Security Solutions Healthcare for Retirees "Retirement Healthcare Costs: Let's Get Real," by Mark Miller (July 16, 2019, Morningstar.com) "Retirement Healthcare Costs: Strategies for Meeting the Challenge," by Mark Miller (Aug. 6, 2019, Morningstar.com) "5 Key Retiree Healthcare Trends," Mark Miller and Christine Benz (Nov. 12, 2018, Morningstar.com)
Rank #2: Maria Bruno and Joel Dickson: 'Building a Better Retirement'. Our guests for the latest installment of "The Long View," Maria Bruno and Joel Dickson, are both veterans of investment behemoth Vanguard. Bruno is the head of U.S. wealth planning research at Vanguard, leading a team responsible for conducting research and analysis on a wide range of retirement, wealth planning, and portfolio construction topics. She also contributes to the oversight of the investment philosophy, methodology, and wealth management strategies supporting Vanguard's advisory products and services. Bruno is a Certified Financial Planner, and she's a fount of wisdom on many subjects, but especially retirement planning. Dickson has worn many hats at Vanguard during his long career there. In his current position as Vanguard's global head of advice methodology, he oversees all investment methodology development for Vanguard's advice programs whose end consumers are individual investors. The transcript for this podcast can be found here. Background Information Maria Bruno bio Joel Dickson bio "The Planner and the Geek" podcast series Vanguard Research and Commentary Archive How Retirement Savers Can Play Catch-Up "It's the 'how much?' But then also how do you actually direct those savings?" (1:30-2:56) "It's such an idiosyncratic or individual sort of consideration from a planning standpoint; there are plenty of people that have little wealth but high income." Whether traditional tax-deferred accounts are automatically better than Roth for people playing catch-up on retirement savings. (2:57-5:53) "It's a little bit simpler when you're younger and accumulating." How basic savings and investing habits, combined with plan defaults, make the accumulation period much simpler than decumulation. (5:54-8:24) 'Off-Label Uses': Ways Supersavers Can Maximize Their Investments Aftertax 401(k): What it is and how heavy savers can take advantage of it. (10:41-12:55) After-Tax 401(k), Bogleheads Wiki entry "Should You Make Aftertax Contributions to Your 401(k)?" Morningstar.com article "Aftertax 401(k) vs. Taxable Account? Evaluating Options for High-Income Savers," Morningstar.com article "Heavy Savers, Meet the Mega-Backdoor Roth," Morningstar.com article Backdoor Roth IRA: How it works, who should consider, and potential pitfalls to be aware of. (12:56-16:34) "IRA Insights: The Benefits of a Backdoor Roth," Vanguard research "Backdoor IRAs: What You Need to Know," Morningstar.com article "There's more and more focus on minimizing income taxes during one's life than there is about avoiding estate taxes." Using a 529 as an additional tax-advantaged savings vehicle. (16:35-21:26) Navigating College Savings episode from The Planner and The Geek podcast Decumulation "How do I meet my goals today but then also make sure that I'm protecting myself down the road?" Why setting spending rates can be so tricky. (21:27-24:26) "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data," research paper by William Bengen William Bengen bio "How to Put a Dynamic Retirement Spending Strategy in Place," Vanguard research "Spending Trends Boost Safe Withdrawal Rate for Retirees," Morningstar.com video "The 4 Percent Rule Is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World," research paper by Michael Finke, David Blanchett, and Wade Pfau "We're telling people to, on average, oversave and underspend." Balancing longevity, sequence risk with spending and quality of life. (24:27-28:35) "Is There an Upside to Sequence of Return Risk?" Morningstar.com video Exploring the Retirement Consumption Puzzle, research paper by David Blanchett "At the end of the day you still kind of get to the same end result." How bucket portfolios may not look very different from traditionally allocated retirement portfolios. (28:36-31:30) "The Bucket Approach to Retirement Portfolio Allocation," Morningstar.com article "Retirees could be overexposed to equity risk." Whether retirees aren't derisking their portfolios. (31:31-32:41) "Best Practices for Portfolio Rebalancing," Vanguard research paper "Generations: Key Drivers of Investor Behavior," Vanguard research paper "The rules of thumb just don't work as well." Why managing taxes during retirement is necessarily an individualized process. (32:42-36:24) "Spending from a Portfolio: Implications of Withdrawal Order for Taxable Investors," Vanguard research paper "Here you're actually looking at strategies that could accelerate income taxes." How the post-retirement/pre-RMD years are a prime time to control future tax bills. (36:25-39:41) • "An IRA Conversion Sweet Spot," Morningstar.com video • "Age Is Just a Number: Start Thinking About RMDs Now," Vanguard blog post • "Strategies for Annual Roth Conversions," Vanguard research • "But What If I Don't Want My RMD?," Vanguard research • "What to Do With RMDs You Don't Need," Morningstar.com article Building Portfolios "You have human capital risk at the same time you have investment risk." How investors should think holistically about risk when building their portfolios. (39:42-44:37) "Vanguard ETF Strategic Model Portfolios," Vanguard research paper "Global Equity Investing: The Benefits of Diversification and Sizing Your Allocation," Vanguard research paper "Focus on the things that you can control." What to do if investment returns are muted in the future. (44:38-46:23) "What Fed Projections May Mean for Longer-Term Stock Returns," Vanguard research "Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2019: Down but not Out," Vanguard research "Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2019 Edition," Morningstar.com article ETF Landscape "Investors that were more likely to trade chose the ETF." Are ETFs being used for long-term investing or trading? (46:24-49:28) "ETFs: For the Better or Bettor?," Vanguard research paper "Morningstar's 2018 Fee Study Finds That Prices Continue to Decline," Morningstar.com article "98% of the DNA is the same." Whether the benefits of ETFs relative to traditional index funds been overstated. (49:29-51:27) "ETFs Versus Mutual Funds: A Comparison," Vanguard research "Traditional Index Fund vs. ETF Cage Match," Morningstar.com article Vanguard's Personal Advisor Service "The most important part of the financial planning process is the goal discovery." Why Vanguard's service offers a combination of human and automated advice. (51:28-56:17) "Helping Vanguard Personal Advisor Service Clients Understand the Anatomy of Our Methodology," Vanguard research The Robo-Advice Market Is Growing, but Changing, InvestmentNews article About the Podcast: The Long View is a podcast from Morningstar. Each week, hosts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak conduct an in-depth discussion with a thought leader from the world of investing or personal finance. The podcast is produced by George Castady and Scott Halver. About the Hosts: Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak have been analysts and commentators on investments and the investment industry for many years. Christine is Morningstar's director of personal finance and senior columnist for Morningstar.com. Jeff is head of global manager research for Morningstar Research Services, overseeing Morningstar's team of 120 manager research analysts in the U.S. and overseas. To Share Feedback or a Guest Idea: Write us at TheLongView@morningstar.com
Rank #1: Central Bank Independence. The US Federal Reserve’s sharp pivot toward easing amid substantial White House pressure has raised concerns about central bank independence, as have developments in other advanced and emerging market economies alike. How worried we should be about this threat—and its implications for policy, the economy, and markets—is Top of Mind. In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former central bankers Donald Kohn and Sir Paul Tucker who explain why central bank independence is critical to maintaining price and financial stability—even today when too little, rather than too much, inflation is the main problem. But while Kohn is concerned that Trump’s overt pressure could undermine Fed credibility, Tucker worries more that over-reliance on central banks since the GFC has left them vulnerable to politicization. Nathan also speaks with the firm’s chief economist Jan Hatzius who does not believe the Fed has responded directly to pressure from the White House, but does think that political pressure could already be influencing Fed policy through indirect channels such as bond market pricing. That said, Hatzius argues this in itself shouldn’t inflict too much harm on the economy unless inflationary pressures rise materially.
Rank #2: Dissecting the Market Disconnect. With the US expansion now the longest on record and no shortage of risks on the horizon, growth uncertainty is Top of Mind. This uncertainty has been at the heart of the dovish pivot from central banks this year, which has generally helped push bond yields lower in anticipation of Fed rate cuts ahead, but equity prices higher. So just how concerned about growth should we really be? In this episode of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan asks Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and others to weigh in. Dalio argues that recent price action makes sense given the Fed’s easier stance, but worries we’re pushing the limits of monetary easing, which—among other political and geopolitical factors—will ultimately bring about a negative shift in growth and markets. But Jan Hatzius argues that markets are perhaps too concerned about growth and not concerned enough about the direction of Fed policy, as the costs of easing now potentially outweigh the benefits.
Rank #1: Good Tech, Bad Tech. In "Good Tech, Bad Tech," our hosts look at some of the tradeoffs we're making as we integrate more and more technology into our everyday lives and the way we do business. They also point to ways you as an investor might benefit from these trends.
Rank #2: Getting Schooled. The rising cost of college can make it feel more high pressure than ever. In "Getting Schooled," our hosts examine how families can plan and prepare ahead so it doesn't feel so overwhelming, and also look at some potential alternatives to a traditional college degree.
Rank #1: Risks and Opportunities across Private Markets. Have investors been forced to embrace private markets? Find out with David Lebovitz on this week’s episode on the Center for Investment Excellence.
Rank #2: Factor investing in fixed income. Why consider factor based fixed income investing? Visit jpmorgan.com/institutional/investment-excellence.
Rank #1: Marketplace Roundtable #7: Value Investing For The 21st Century With Chris DeMuth Jr.. Value investing, like any investing style, can get dogmatic. Chris DeMuth Jr., the host of Sifting the World and founder of Rangeley Capital, shares his approach for value investing in the current market and how to find ideas where others aren't looking. Topics covered: 2:05 - Chris' first investing experience: 'odd-lot' opportunities 5:20 - How Robert Rubin and Joel Greenblatt picked up the mantle of value investing from Warren Buffett at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries 7:45 - Chris discusses what makes his approach to value investing different 11:15 - The benefit of having a closed forum like Sifting The World to share ideas versus letting them out in the wild. 14:05 - At Eli's request, Chris expands on counter-party exploitation and how he makes it work for him 17:10 - The research and due diligence process and how to discover and test new ideas with primary sources 20:50 - Diversification and its limitations beyond a dozen or so positions 24:30 - Chris expands on his approach to portfolio construction and diversification 28:20 - Ignoring the macro-economic environment 33:00 - On the difficulty of finding value in an expensive market like we saw in 2017 and much of 2018 37:20 - The thesis for Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX) (FOXA) and Disney (DIS) 48:00 - The long case for high society stalwart, Belmond (BEL)
Rank #2: Marketplace Roundtable #43: Developing A Dividend Philosophy With Dividend Sensei. Adam Galas, better known as Dividend Sensei, has become known for his dividend strategy and his approach to the sector. A member of the newly launched Dividend Kings, he joins the Marketplace Roundtable to talk today's market and how he follows the #1 rule of investing as a dividend investor. (Note - the recording has a few brief rough patches) Topics covered: 3:00 minute mark - Dividend Sensei's background and how he came to his approach. 8:30 - How the last year has shown the importance of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best, and what that means going forward in this market 12:00 - Concerns for today's market and how to handle the risks in the market 16:30 - Ways to monitor the market and ways Dividend Sensei is positioning. 21:00 - Opening up some ideas - Abbvie (ABBV), CVS (CVS), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), and British American Tobacco (BTI) 25:30 - Stress-testing the tobacco thesis
Rank #1: Retirement Advisor: How UBS’s Michael Crook Keeps Clients Coasting Toward Retirement In Choppy Markets . UBS investment strategist Michael Crook has helped fashion a quasi-endowment approach for UBS clients that aims to help them achieve their goals without markets getting the better of them. In this podcast interview (25:20), he explains how UBS’s “3L” strategy – liquidity, longevity, legacy – offers a reality-based methodology for coping with market challenges on the path toward a secure retirement.
Rank #2: Tariffs 2.0: Trade-War Escalation Or Negotiating Tactic? . Is the president’s surprise announcement of massively higher duties on Chinese imports the start of a prolonged new trade war or a mere Trumpian negotiating tactic? If it is the latter, crashing stock markets are likely to rocket upward following the signing of a trade accord.This brief podcast suggests five reasons why Sunday’s tweet is likely to be just an extreme tactic, though the risk remains that one or both sides miscalculate how to quickly patch relations.
Rank #1: Behind The Idea # 16: Aswath Damodaran Talks Facebook, Valuation, And Stories. Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Behind the Idea this week to discuss Facebook as a follow-up to our episode reviewing his article (BTI #12). He also sheds light on his investing philosophy, why he dislikes the Dean of Valuation moniker, and the importance of faith and testing your faith in investing. Topics covered: Why the 'Dean of Valuation' is a terrifying title - 1:10 minute markRecapping Damodaran's Facebook (FB) thesis - 2:00How do you deal with the risk to Facebook's dominance? - 3:45The piece W
Rank #2: Behind The Idea #83: Paradigm Shifts, Gold, And You. Two things we usually don't do on Behind the Idea are talk about big picture macro-economic ideas, and delve into asset classes outside of stocks. We've focused on individual investing ideas through the vast majority of our episodes over the last 18 months, and that's where we've made our bones. But Mike Taylor rejoins the podcast this week after paternity leave (congrats Mike!) and he's jazzed up about Ray Dalio's recent argument that a paradigm shift is coming. So jazzed up that he invested in GLD, GDX, and GDXJ itself, based on Dalio's article. Gold leads to a lot of psychological analysis and self-consideration, and to considering the philosophical basis for an investing strategy. Without spoiling it, I have the more skeptical, 'what is behind the results that gold has achieved it in the past' orientation, while Mike has the more instrumental, 'gold has proven to be a ballast to many a portfolio, so why not' approach. Topics covered: 2:30 minute mark - Introduction to Ray Dalio and his recent article 5:45 - What stands out in the argument 11:30 - Whether these shifts can really explain the market's direction over the decades 16:30 - The trade-off between higher pricing and lower future returns 26:30 - Discussion of "gold bugs" and the historical reasons for owning gold. 31:30 - What makes gold the way it is? 37:30 - The difference between owning gold and indexing (or is there one?) 50:30 - Why will this time not be different?
Rank #1: Mike Wilson: New Data Sends Concerning Signs for U.S. Stocks. On today's podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says a popular narrative forecasted a rebound for the second half of 2019. However, new data on lower U.S. factory activity could counter that expectation.
Rank #2: Andrew Sheets: Title: Can Central Banks Cure Market Woes?. On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets examines central bank actions to boost markets and the negative effects—intended or not—that these moves could have.