Total Retail Talks is for retail executives who crave the knowledge and insights needed to stay successful in today's fast-paced industry. Through engaging talks and focused interviews, listeners take away useful information and practical advice from a full roster of retail experts, influencers and leaders.
Total Retail Talks is for retail executives who crave the knowledge and insights needed to stay successful in today's fast-paced industry. Through engaging talks and focused interviews, listeners take away useful information and practical advice from a full roster of retail experts, influencers and leaders.
Total Retail Talks is for retail executives who crave the knowledge and insights needed to stay successful in today's fast-paced industry. Through engaging talks and focused interviews, listeners take away useful information and practical advice from a full roster of retail experts, influencers and leaders.
© 2019 OwlTail All rights reserved. OwlTail only owns the podcast episode rankings. Copyright of underlying podcast content is owned by the publisher, not OwlTail. Audio is streamed directly from Total Retail servers. Downloads goes directly to publisher.
#18 || The defection of a Roger Ailes warrior. "Very earlier on, Roger called me Ailes Junior. He told my dad, 'I've never met anyone more like me than Joe.'" As the protégé of Fox News chairman Roger Ailes, Joe Lindsley was closer to the man who built Fox News than any Fox executive. He helped write Ailes' speeches, sat next to him at executive meetings, and went to church with his family on Sundays. What moved the ambitious twenty-something to abandon the conservative media titan? For a deeper dive into his epic odyssey, check out Joe's memoir — Fake News / True Story: www.inkshares.com/books/fake-news-true-story
Tony Blair: Centrism may be dead. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair sits down with Glenn Thrush in London to discuss the relationship between American and British politics, his close relationship with the Clintons, Brexit, and the danger of approaching politics with a closed-mind. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Rahul Moodgal - Master Fund Raiser (Capital Allocators, EP.87). Rahul Moodgal has spent 20 years as a fund raiser across long only strategies, hedge funds, fund of funds, customized solutions, start-ups, and non-profits. Collectively, Rahul has raised and helped raise $60 billion for firms since 2005. He started his career in the industry at powerhouse TT International, and later joined The Children’s Investment Fund (TCI) where he led the marketing effort that raised $20 billion in just 3½ years. Within TCI’s affiliate model, Rahul also was responsible for the largest India fund raise in history ($1 billion for TCI New Horizon Fund), and the largest sector fund launch in history ($1.1 billion for Algebris Investments). Our conversation covers capital raising lessons learned from teaching, the value of transparency, the gold rush before 2008, the lean times afterwards, modern fee structures, the three key points to effective marketing, the three traits that will kill you, the two biggest issues start-up funds face, the best questions asked by leading allocators, and some of the worst horror stories in attempted capital raising. We close comparing by fund raising for charities and investment firms. Learn More Discuss show and Read the Transcript Join Ted's mailing list at CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com Join the Capital Allocators Forum Write a review on iTunes Follow Ted on twitter at @tseides For more episodes go to CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com/Podcast
Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast). Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Joseph H. Davis, global chief economist at The Vanguard Group. Davis is also head of Vanguard's investment strategy group and a member of the senior portfolio management team for Vanguard's fixed income group, which oversees more than $500 billion in assets under management. He earned his doctorate in macroeconomics and finance at Duke University.
Rank #1: Retail Focus 2/5/19 – Amazon Continues to Invest; Simon Shows Mall Trend Isn’t All Downward. We lead with Amazon—because we have to—but from there it is on to discussing Simon and their most recent occupancy rates numbers. Then, we discuss Tuesday Morning’s second straight positive earnings call and their potential return to long-term profitability, and Mastercard’s record-breaking numbers. We close by looking ahead at potential H&M store closures and Natural Grocers’ choice to open stores in less-populated areas.
Rank #2: Retail Focus 3/9/19 – Target & Kroger Earnings; Dollar Tree's Family Dollar Question. A big earnings week for the retail world, and we discuss how Target is bearing fruits from their trials two years ago, while Kroger is hoping to bear fruits in two years from their trials today. We also discuss the state of airport retail after a superb Retail Dive article on the subject, what Dollar Tree could or should do with Family Dollar, and whether Walmart’s new returns initiative might actually take hold.
Rank #1: Reinventing Retail 34: Omni-Channel Retail: The Plight of the Store Associate?. In this episode, we’re joined by David Hogg, Sr. Principal Consultant for Converged Commerce at Infor, to discuss retail’s evolution from multi-channel to omni-channel. And while customers enjoy omni-channel shopping experiences like BOPIS, AI-powered customer service, and ship-from-store, the role of the retail store associate is getting more and more complicated. To keep up, retailers need to equip those employees with software that makes their jobs easier and more efficient. David’s solution? Converged Commerce.
Rank #2: Reinventing Retail 46: #NoFilter: Authentic Videos are the Future of Experiential Retail. We’re joined by Dave Dabbah of Agora.io, an API platform that’s bringing peer-to-peer video to retailers and fashion brands. To date, retailers have been cautious with live product broadcasts, but a wealth of opportunity exists to connect with customers, build their brands, and significantly increase sales with authentic video content. From combining influencers with real life people trying products to gamification and interactive broadcasting, brands should be looking to authentic video content as they move into the future of retail.
Rank #1: EP182 - Amazon Q2 Earnings and News. EP182 - Amazon Q2 Earnings and News Recap of Amazon 2019 Q2 Earnings. Starbucks productizing Mobile Order & Pay UPS/FedEx go to 7 day delivery FedEx quits Amazon Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 182 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 Automated Transcription of the show Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 182 being recorded on Wednesday July 31st 2019 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your code Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners, Jason has been a while since we were able to get together with given the holiday season 2 vacations going on and then we had some guests in there that that's important topics you on the cover so we thought it would be a good time to go and catch up on some news there's been a fair amount going on in the world Lee Commerce as you haven't been at this for feels like forever kind of Summer's kind of quiet and then here in this kind of Q3. Is where it gets really newsie as we head into the house so we thought we'd go over some of that before we do Jason you have been a busy traveler I'll tell us about some of the tricks you been on. Jason: [1:26] Yeah yeah I have been on a couple trips full disclosure a number of them have been vacation and so I'm I'm a little proud I feel like you probably beat me on quality of summer vacation but I feel like I at least meet you on quantity of summer vacation. Scot: [1:41] Yeah yeah you were able to get a couple weeks in there and I'm I can go further because I don't have to carry a 8 lb 80 lb espresso machine with me I think that that kind of limits our options but so fly over to Europe and stuff so we're going to free you from the shackles of the espresso machine. Jason: [2:00] Exactly I don't know if you think you're joking or not but I did I took two vacations I visited my family in in San Diego for the 4th of July and I went to Upper Lake Michigan with my wife's family and the Upper Lake Michigan lake house is remote enough that I did have to bring my own espresso machine. Scot: [2:20] Oh I know I know I'm familiar. Jason: [2:22] But I'm calling it a big win I actually consumer protip. Years passed I bought the new Nespresso which is called the virtuoso which is this fancy or system and I was never actually that happy with the shots. Into this year I retired it and bought the older Nespresso original system. And much happier with the shots there's a much greater diversity of coffee available for its was actually able to buy. My Starbucks pods to go in that coffee shop by my lattes were both much better and this little town we we stay in North Point Court last year head Giro expresso machines in the town and they sure they had to poop so I feel like. Like it was all green light. Scot: [3:07] Nice nice you're you're making America better. Jason: [3:11] But so in between all of that Leisure activity I took the opportunity during the Heatwave to go to Las Vegas. For a new show that interact has launched this year called in RF next and they cleverly spell it like the Hipster kids NXT. Scot: [3:31] It's very cool to drop any kind of owls so kudos. Jason: [3:35] Exactly it sweet speak. And they the. Important to me because it's somewhat of the spiritual successor to the shop. Org annual Summits when shop.org used to be a separate entity from NRF. Into this was the first year of this new format it's in Las Vegas in the summer it's at the Four Seasons hotel which is like a kind of cool luxury hotel inside of Mandalay Bay. And it's less of a trade show there's no exhibit hall and more of a a conference with. Certain interesting approach to content curation what they do is they they have. Key notes that everyone attends on a topic and then they have breakout sessions which are deeper Dives on the topics from the keynote and you sort of picked the. The specific tactic that you're most interested in for the deeper dive so you might have liked. Akina ain't no bunch of good retailers that did Keynotes Zulily DSW Shoes untie. [4:42] Dick's Sporting Goods Peapod. Lilly Pulitzer to Value H&M JustFab I think with all the main presenters and you know you might see that the CMO giving a presentation on the keno to set up high-level case study about what they're doing and then you might have the. The director of email marketing doing a breakout session specifically on on Dick strategy around a b testing emails for example if that was what was interesting to you until you both you got a mix of kind of high-level. Strategic content and like you do more Hands-On tactical button-pushing contents as well which I like. Scot: [5:22] Brickell what were what were your your your most and least favorite topics. Jason: [5:30] Yep so there you know. Everyone is tackling different aspects of what I call the next best dollar problem that like. [5:43] A lot of the traditional tactics that repairs of used to drive traffic and drive conversion like. Either aren't working as well as they used to or are becoming more expensive and more competitive and so you know our readers are challenge with like what is the right mix of tactics and you know how do we evaluate what tactics to do and then you know how do we optimize and get the best bang-for-the-buck for all of those. Like primarily traffic generation tactic so a lot of. Surf interesting examples of how to tackle influencer marketing an email marketing and. Bike shopping cart abandonment campaigns and in topics that we talked about for a while but like kind of what the the latest state-of-the-art is in optimizing those tactics out. You know there's a bunch of General stuff there and then the 1st came out of the day was sort of a. A much more overview of the market Keno which is from an acquaintance and former colleague of yours Pascal finette who's. At Singularity University but I think you hired him a channel advisor at one point. Scot: [7:00] Yeah that's goes way back Pascal is a super smart person in here and Germany for us for a while he's a great guy and we stayed in touch so hopefully he gave give a good presentation there. Jason: [7:14] So I thought he did a really good job and his his whole presentation, is there an interesting angle on something we've talked a lot about about bifurcation in retail and he had an interesting Paradigm for it like he he talked about traditional retail being a pyramid and at the bottom of the pyramid you had, very high-volume low-margin transactions. And at the top of the pyramid you had much of lower volume higher margin transactions and so you know for the most part it's like. [7:51] Discounters and super high efficiency stuff at the bottom of that pyramid so that's that's Walmart T.J.Maxx dollar stores things like that and at the very top of the pyramid. It's typically luxury brands, and you know then there are a bunch of retards that are historically a compromise of those two things right and so that's, that's all I like the mall based apparel companies that's that's gap that's Bed Bath & Beyond its Staples it's all these these different retailers and his premise was that for most of the history of retail. The best place to be was that compromise in between the two extremes and that as a result of our our current disruption in the marketplace like what's fundamentally happened is. The customers have all bifurcated to either the the super high efficiency retailers at the bottom and the super high-value read you know High luxury retailers at the top and the the segment of retail that's getting decimated are all those retailers that are trying to live in the middle and so he takes his pyramid and he he takes the bottom and the top and puts him around and it's it's sort of. Like an hourglass so that the pyramid has become an hourglass don't kick in in the the the. The dramatic conclusion being don't get stuck in the middle. Scot: [9:18] The sands of time are running out. Jason: [9:20] Yeah it was a little awkward that I'm sitting next to a little Gap team is he pops up beside that says and the Gap is in the middle. Scot: [9:26] They without the computers to start working on the resumes. Jason: [9:30] I don't think it was news to any of them that that was a challenge they had to overcome. Yeah but so that was a good conference and of course like, cuz it was a little smaller to maybe about four hundred attendees the networking you know is one of the highlights you know I got to see a lot of old friends of yours and mine and meet meet some new friends share a couple adult beverages and and make fun of people. Scot: [9:55] How about where are digitally native vertical Brands their represent. Jason: [10:01] There were so like JustFab was one of the presenters they were number of, the DMV be sort of in attendance so they they definitely had some some representation that it it's it was a pretty interesting mix of. Frankly you know all all portions of that of that parent of Pascal's pyramid. Scot: [10:28] Cooper another one of the takeaways can you share with us. Jason: [10:33] You're grilling me I mean like those are the the big ones that we have time to talk about right now because I heard a rumor I know you have this whole separate gig in the automotive industry that you're cheating on me with and I heard you were at an auto event while I was here so did you did you get a new cars. Scot: [10:57] I did not but it was fun because this was an event that was actually in my backyard the one of the Publishers and autospace I didn't even know this until Teresa Lee is based out of Cary North Carolina which is in the Research Triangle Park area and they put on an annual kind of it's not funny how things once you've done this in several Industries It's relatively similar to kind of are e-commerce road so they have kind of like the big show their one goes to this kind of like you know the current stage and then they have the more forward-looking show that they kind of do the smaller and we're in a hot soak. Kind of like interests next for Autos this was in Raleigh so it's actually nice to get to drive to the conference house by 2 so I was invited to speak about. [11:43] Changing car ownership landscape which is not the topic of our podcast but it is kind of fun you know there's an in the my world my e-commerce World in my Auto World are all colliding so we we talked a lot about these new models the most popular ones are there's two companies ones true and ones get around the CEO of truism eBay dude and then the get around my folks are both marketplaces into takes time for at least learn to talk about all the time and see it seeping into the Auto World another interesting company in that space is called ACV auctions where there's all these physical car auctions require acres and acres of land in kind of silly because you ship all the cars there and then if people fly there and then walked around and and bid on items and then they blow to back up and shut them somewhere else there's two shipping's in there there's this ACV auction company has gone and it just on a digital marketplace around that so very kind of eBay 1.0 asks to be in a different industry but then see the the similarities the other fun thing is a lot of the presentations were you how do we make it like easy for people to buy cars the carvana has really disrupted that World by effectively taking e-commerce. [13:03] Stuff that we know well and applying it to used cars so now all the dealers are trying to figure out your pay if Jason walks in on a on a Sunday afternoon in Chicago how can I sell him a car in less than 8 hours so that it's kind of funny they're trying to figure out you know. [13:21] The basic blocking and tackling of that that we had knee Converse for a long time but but it's funny to watch them, figure that out and there's a different set of vendors different set of players so it's a lot of fun. Jason: [13:32] Yeah I know it is it's funny when I get teased a lot from my tenure at Blockbuster entertainment which is now kind of a joke but we sold the company for a bunch of money and a lot of the management team and that the founder of Blockbuster took that cash and started AutoNation in the hole the whole premise even back then was, like the inventory in any given used car dealership is the local inventory in that one dealership so you know a very small assortment free Chopper but what you really need to do is aggregate the assortment across the whole the whole country right and that's that sounds like that's essentially what's happening with these options as well. Scot: [14:14] Yeah yeah and then yeah so they'll traditional models are all changing to the CarMax has the realtor now adding digital and it just kind of funny to watching. The same waves we were kind of in the end of the sixth inning or whatever you want to say I guess Amazon would say they won but you know if we've been that day one for 20 years daughter Ministry of feels like it's way earlier in that and it's going to go faster because we don't, we don't have all the new waiting for people to trust payments and smartphones broadband and all that it's all all here today so it's just feels even more chaotic to the folks that are in the middle of it. Jason: [14:49] Sure I will say and I've been falling carvanha a little bit as a start a digital shopping experience and there's a bunch to admire their butt from the commercials like you get the impression that if you bought a car on your mobile phone from carvana it would get delivered in this cool carvana delivery vehicle. Or you go to a vending machine and the car would come out of the vending machine and I was kind of disappointed to find out that like. Yeah in most cases some dude just going to drive the car you bought to your house. Scot: [15:17] Sure we'd moessmer delivered on the little flatbeds they don't have the commercial tissue this really big one but they bring them on these little flatbeds. You by Ada price on so many cars in Chicago that there haven't. Jason: [15:32] Got you okay good I'm glad I'm glad to hear that cuz that felt a little bait-and-switch e and I'm hoping they've all been detailed by gets 50 before they get to. Scot: [15:40] That's what we're going on there's a lot of lot of cars to clean up their thanks for bringing that up. Jason: [15:45] Hey I'm here for you man. Scot: [15:47] What's one of the big news items we wanted to talk about is last week Amazon revealed their second quarter earnings since they came out the stocks been a down about 10% feel a little bit of pressure and what would happen there is it's kind of mixed quarter so it's Amazon you look over the long Arc since it went public I was at a whiteboard I would draw these kind of stairsteps there and and see what happens is the, they'll invest will bits the stair goes sideways and her words, like what's happening this is going to work out and then do that that's what cycle Revenue growth will accelerate in the woods happy on Wall Street and then the Amazon will say well we need to go through another investment cycle so they've been pretty used to this the telegraph this if you want if you remember that's when they took the auctioneer to announce next day Prime so that's the real theme of the quarter is the mixed aspect of it so positive camaco season of the quarter was one day Prime really increased demand that was that was good and exceeded while she text Haitians pretty handily on the top line but at the same time I'm delivering on one day Prime really shoot away at probability so you know I can have this mental image of they press the button on the website and then the. [17:08] Total chaos happen to the Fulfillment centers in there just kind of getting their arms around that also you throw Prime day in there that wasn't a cute too but it's kind of body language was that it was a lot of little bit harder and more expensive to implement one day Prime I'm too we're going to dig in the next level down is and we thought we kind of cover on positives and negatives we drew straws and I got the positive side Jason sits on the positive side Revenue accelerated so Revenue at Amazon grew 21% year-over-year excluding in any kind of benefit or hadwin from a foreign currency that exceeded expectations by about 3% pretty material at Amazon's you know billions and billions of dollars to exceed by 3% hundreds of millions of dollars kind of come out of that one area that everyone looks that pretty closely is within the Commerce business or what they called the online unit the there's a unit growth so that's effectively no to the number of things sold so paid units that it's kind of slow down over the years to about 10% that. [18:16] That metric which is kind of a forward-looking metrics that popped up to 18% so that's probably the best signal that the one-day Prime is working really well and then I think imma call Amazon did call out that you know that that was driven that salvation was driving by the introduction of 1-day Prime one-day Prime's benefit was largely centered around North America because in most of it to go to 2 UK for example it's such a small little island are that pretty much prime has been one day for awhile since you out a lot of Europe they're already kind of at one day Prime. [18:52] So it has a business impact on their National side so a lot of this growth came from the North America side so North America Revenue accelerated to 23% year-over-year compared to 19% q1 that's a 4% bump due to one day Prime and then the other thing that made Wall Street excited was you know whenever Amazon releases a quarter they talk about the next quarter so. [19:17] Ouachita been projecting Q3 to be no X and then Amazon guided that pretty significantly ahead kind of keeping it this mid-20s growth rate at the mid, another kind of interesting kind of in this we get kind of inside baseball here on the call Amazon talked about Amazon is very methodical in these autometrix Sue on the call they revealed that they have about 10 million items right now that are in this kind of one day Prime so think about these concentric Rings where you have at the center at the same day you have Prime now and then some cities have car that same day delivery that's Prime now is like was like 5,000 skews and then I think maybe you get up to 10,000 20,000 skews for same-day so then the next thing out which is next day is now 10 million and then the next train out which is I think there's about 30 to 40 million Prime eligible products total supposed to be like the next thing out which is 2 days going to probably have caught 30 to 40 million so they're really kind of focused on this this kind of ring that is that one day Prime so you know theoretically I think they could get you know. [20:37] 4 * 40 million items that are effectively available to put into that one a prime will it get it all there I don't know I have to kind of wait and see how they go but ten millions not a not a bad start so it's it's going to be interesting and now they've revealed that number will get a slide about it we'll try to track it on the show here for you guys so you got to see if I was if I was them I would kind of try to get that up to 20 million die holiday I think that would be no cuz pretty material holiday bumps and then what you begin. [21:07] Last couple things within third-party that segment of Revenue grew 23% year-over-year which was a nice little acceleration retail subscriptions which is kind of our Prime lives that grew 37% and then one thing we watch on the show really closely is the Amazon ads now they put in this other category in blush and Rose have a way of kind of looking in there and pulling out the ads business so so the ads business was up 37% year-over-year really nice growth and then the estimates are that this is that about a 13 billion dollar run rate, I'm going 42% year-over-year so the projections have kind of been edging up we talked about this for a couple years that they were there you're pretty high now I think they're raising them so I'm seeing a north of 30 billion from Amazon ads by 2024 that would you're the ad guy that would definitely put them up into the the Facebook kind of snow level certainly that would exceed I think Twitter and Snapchat it might stay singers and they're not growing as fast as is Amazon's business so don't put them up in that kind of elite air with Facebook and Google if I'm remembering by my ad. Jason: [22:21] Yeah they're they're clear third they're like you. They still have a significant amount of ground to make up on on Amazon and Facebook and Google but they also have like a pretty good Gap ahead of everyone else. Scot: [22:34] Yes those are the positive sit in the question is why was the stock kind of down and I'll turn it over to our curmudgeonly Jason to give you the negatives. Jason: [22:44] Yeah I think it's because I'm such a positive guy that it it just feels better getting the bad news from me, 11 seidman on the advertising I saw a new and interesting datapoint today that I thought was kind of fascinating there's this company out there jumpshot we've talked about them before they have tricked a bunch of consumers in the stall installing there plug-in in their browser. Variety of utilities but then whether means is they get to collect data about how all those consumers are our shopping and their web browser and they, they sell that industry data so they get they claim they can watch millions of Shoppers in North America on Amazon and they said that in January of last year. 6.6% of all product detail page is the people looked at on Amazon where clicks from a sponsored at. [23:42] So by December it was 10.5% of all quicksand so there's this like they have monthly data and you just see this daddy step up that like, Amazon has essentially double the amount of page views as a result of these. These paid placements in that this very much follows a trend you see on the other big advertising platforms that you know originally. You know Facebook had a lot of organic Google had a lot of organic content in overtime as they. They've you know optimizing monetization on their platforms or less and less of the the content with C on their platforms is is organic and Marvis paid so where. We're seeing a very similar progression happening For Better or Worse on Amazon. [24:30] That Flippin to the the negatives from the earning report the first one was that their AWS growth rate was slightly below expectations so. [24:43] To put this in perspective. The growth rate was still 37% so it's a very fast growing business it's a wildly profitable business in Amazon has by far. The the largest share of that business and I would say you like one other positive about that business is that there's still a ton of growth left in that business so you know by most people estimate something like 5 to 10% of all the. Computing jobs in the world are done in the cloud and the rest are all still done in local data centers and things like that so there's still a huge amount of growth as. Compute my grades from from the local to the cloud and Amazon you know has this this clear commanding lead but the rate of their growth is starting to slow down and particular Microsoft and Google. Wow much more than Amazon are now growing faster than Amazon so that's like not unexpected but it's interesting to see that play out and obviously there's, a lot of mistaken Impressions out there that the. That the revenue from AWS like pays for the unprofitable retail business for Amazon and hopefully our listeners. I have learned to debunk that but be that as it may the AWS revenue is is very beneficial to Amazon. Scot: [26:09] Giannis this is not a cloud computing podcast but Microsoft actually their Cloud Revenue just passed their non-cloud revenue and that was really well-received by Wall Street they are now in that that Elite Trend dollar market cap where Amazon has kind of Fallen well below that due to the headwinds from this investment cycle. Jason: [26:31] Yep yep so it's it's super interesting to see this this Microsoft Resurgence they also announced that they're going to invest more than a billion dollars in this openai platform that they're going to accelerate via. Azure which is their Cloud platform so I say interesting stuff happening in the cloud space I like to think we're all the beneficiaries because the the tools and services that these guys are all offering. Like they're they're so competitive with each other that they keep wildly improving and expanding every quarter so. So it's a fun space going back to the retail side of Amazon's business a little bit more overall gross profit decelerated Amazon so is, 22% versus the last quarter was 27%. [27:22] As you mention like they took a little hit because they had a good quarter last year and then their guidance was that they were going to. Make more Capital investments in the subsequent quarter and expected things to go down and that's that's kind of how it it played out but they. You know still still it's no fun to tell people that you you made less profit than you you did in the previous quarter. Their operating income was also down a little bit and you know you meant I think you already mentioned their there. There's a third quarter guidance was also a little lower as a result of this slightly lower profitability and I look at all three of those things and that to me those are all symptoms of. They made the shift to one day Prime and it was a little more expensive and difficult and messy. Then maybe they they anticipated and sew-in you know I think as we talked about in the past. [28:28] Any inefficiency you have when you accelerate everything they they get Amplified in exacerbated and so you know the the. Putting the accelerator on a lot of these processes if you don't have the exact right inventory in every fulfillment center instead of having expedite a shipment from one for filming Center to a customer now you're having to expedite shipments from to fulfillment centers to a customer things like that so. Like this doesn't seem like a horrible shock to me and I I feel like I have a pretty high degree of confidence that. That Amazon is going to operationally get this stuff all squared away and you and me talk about this in in other news later in the Shell but like however much pain it's causing Amazon to do one day Prime delivery a bunch of other retailers have already announced that they're going to match the one day service and others probably will and I can virtually guarantee you. It will cause more pain to all those other retailers to try to hit that service level than it's causing Amazon. Scot: [29:30] Yeah absolutely yeah some of the Wall Street folks are kind of saying it's a knockout punch in there there's a lot of interesting kind of language around that that the the demand they're seeing from it. Is there a tributing just to really kind of is going to, if it stays in Amazon and get the cost down it is going to be late to away at the the sheriff not only online but the offline folks will moved on Lancaster. Jason: [29:56] Yeah I know you have talent follows Amazon pretty closely and they they. They have a pretty sophisticated model for how much opportunity think there is for hims on how quickly they'll grow and then they do this big consumer survey every quarter until right after Amazon announced this last quarter they surveyed all the customers about how their shopping behaviors might be different if they could get stuff in one day and they had enough Confidence from that survey that they had to dramatically increase the addressable Market in their in their model and therefore like the the amount of Headroom for growth Amazon had because I felt like, offering one day delivery was going to change a lot of shopping habits and and help Amazon capture a lot more wallet chair. Scot: [30:43] Yeah one final announcement they made that's near and dear to your heart as they talked about adding two more go stores which will bring the total to 13. Jason: [30:52] Yeah and it depends on how you read the announcement but there's two to four that are currently scheduled to open so maybe two of those they had already announced, and they added two more but two of them are in Chicago, and we have a number of ghosts tours I want to say we have three or four here now but one of the new ones that's opening here in Chicago is actually opening in one of the buildings I have an office and so it's at the merchandise mart. [31:21] So that that'll be fun this was not Amazon news but there was a sort of interesting article. That that came out that someone had done an analysis of the, the shopping carts one of the credit card companies of the like spend in the Amazon go stores and they reported that the average ring in the Amazon go store is. Much lower than the average ring in a traditional convenience store so so they were saying that like. A typical consumer visits a ghost or like two to five times a quarter and a typical consumer visits a 7-Eleven like. 427 x 1/4 so they get 7-Eleven get slightly more visits then I go store but then the average ring in the convenience store was like $25 and then the go store it was like $14 and so the. The takeaway from this is that you know people are tending to buy one item or just a couple items in the go store in a slightly bigger card in it. Typical convenience store in it adds to the the the high-level speculations that the C's go stores at the moment are wildly unprofitable so it's, it's very interesting and typical Amazon that like in spite of the fact that the the unit economics don't don't seem to work at the moment. You know that's not curtailing Amazon's ambition to keep keep scaling and growing and learning. Scot: [32:51] Have you tried the the coffee that I have seen some of the newer ones have the coffee thing have you tried the. Jason: [32:57] Yeah they do have a coffee bar I confess I have not because I have very goofy specific tasting coffee but I will I will have to try the coffee when they open one in the merchandise mart. Scot: [33:08] Well we need you to take one for the the podcast team and even if it's sub below your standards we want to kind of hear you're all the Gory details. Jason: [33:16] Yep. I'm embarrassed I'm embarrassed to say that that I haven't I mean I think two things you think of when you think of the retailgeek are Amazon go stores on coffee so somewhat embarrassing to me. Scot: [33:27] You can just walk out without paying this can be even more fun. Jason: [33:30] Yeah yeah as I was like to say they they invented just walk out but they broke just walk in. Scot: [33:35] What if you go in and get your coffee drink it and then fill the cup again will they charge you for lunch test that Force. Jason: [33:43] Yeah well yeah that it is funny that there is a little bit of a history of background like you think you're joking but this this ties into this so I kind of broader theme that there was some news about these last couple weeks which is about Amazon's overall grocery Ambitions and that the reason I say this that ties into coffee ago stores is because there's an interesting recode article about the history of the ghost or in the evolution of it and, it started out as a full-service grocery concept and in fact the idea was that you chop all of the. The perishables. In a live store that use Go technology to just let you grab whatever you want and leave and that you'd buy all your consumables, I just ordered them on your mobile phone and they'll all be packed enough for Film It Center that was attached to the store and they be waiting for you as you walked out of the store. And somewhere along the line it was deemed too complicated and one of the biggest reasons it was too complicated was. [34:54] All of these items in a grocery store that have variable quantities that you have to weigh or count, or you don't have different sizes of the same thing we're tricky for the camera to recognize and so, the camera knowing whether you have 12 or 16 oz of coffee in your. In your cup and your point whether you drink half of it and refilled it is a tricky Edge case that apparently Amazon aspire to do originally and then kind of avoided when they rolled out. The ghost or so. But it's interesting how Amazon handles that in these go stores but they they there is now construction going on in the original. 10000 square foot lease that Amazon took in Seattle when they thought they were going to open a grocery store and so there's lots of speculation that in the not-too-distant future we're going to see a new grocery concept. That that may include some of the Amazon go visual search capability computer vision capability but but the Amazon may be stepping back to that more ambitious original. Original Vision so we're all eager to see what happens when they they peel the paper off the windows of the storm Seattle. [36:19] So that is kind of interesting in the grocery space another interesting tidbit of news I saw recently from Yuna from the the Seattle corner of our country. That kind of feels very Amazon asked to me is Starbucks made an interesting announcement. They did a partnership with a POS company to sell a product ties version of their mobile order and pay two other restaurants. Scot: [36:52] So are they now it's any who's going to be taking the outer or how's it going. Jason: [36:57] Yeah so I did not see in the in this original article. Who like it may have already been pre-sold to. But essentially this was like the chief digital officer Starbucks that help build mobile order and pay left Starbucks to start this new company called Brighton, and now fast forward a year later Starbucks has done a deal with him at bright room, to sell the the technology stack in the software stack to other retailers and to me that feels very. Amazon AWS cuz it like you you build something to solve an internal problem and then you say like. You know rather than keep it as a proprietary manage for us we're going to scale it and monetize it by by selling it to the rest of the industry. Scot: [37:53] You'll be interesting to see who takes out or not. Jason: [37:57] So I'm up interested to see if other people up take it there a lot of categories that maybe aren't directly competitive with Starbucks but want this capability and so, you know I it is easy to imagine it being successful motor mobile order and pay the huge deal in the in the restaurant space right now and and something with a credibility of the Starbucks offering would be interesting when I'm super interested to see is. Included in this deal would they ever consider using Starbucks as a payment method. So can I buy my Five Guys burger on my Starbucks card for example. Scot: [38:36] Yeah yeah so be interesting to see how if it's a universal payment system ER or just kind of you know a complete private label into another brand. Jason: [38:44] Yeah I kind of suspect the first version will not include payments but it's interesting to think about and you know it could also open the door we seen a little bit of this like Kroger's it has invented some in-store technology that they're trying to sell the other retailers I get just going to be interesting to see if this is a play that becomes a more you know Common part of the The Playbook going forward where I would argue historically whenever a retailer meant anything proprietary they they want to keep it as far away from the rest of the market as possible and keep it as a sort of, unique competitive advantage. But there was also a lot of logistics news in the last couple weeks have you been following all this cotton. Scot: [39:26] I have a few yeah. I kind of use it that Amazon is caused so much destruction or one's kind of working to keep up have what what do you think about it. Jason: [39:36] Yeah no for sure and some of it very directly so this is slightly old news at this point but like in the beginning of July. FedEx add their earnings and either during their earnings call or within a day of that earnings called they announced that they were not renewing their contract to provide Express services to Amazon. And when you first hear that you go oh my God that's a huge deal. Be reminded FedEx have the smallest chunk of Amazon's delivery and FedEx has a couple. Products that they sell the Amazon only one of which is this this are delivery and so this is really FedEx walking away from one piece of Amazon business, and you know if your regular listener the show hopefully it wasn't a total shock to you because I've said for a long time. [40:27] The carriers are having trouble rapidly scaling their capacity and in so if you have a finite capacity. Do you want to sell that capacity to the highest volume user that you don't have the most negotiating power and pays the least or do you want to sell that capacity to eat or smaller retailers with more with less Leverage, they will have to pay more for that and then you know apparently FedEx answer was. Yeah we we can make we can better product profitize are our capacity by selling it to other retailers and walking away from from Amazon who presumably. You know as a Biltmore more of their own capability or you know where we're turning the screws for a better and better deal from FedEx. So that was big news at the same time in that earnings call they did acknowledge than Amazon is a potential competitor in the space which like that also should not be. Shocking but like you know up to this this point like FedEx had consistently said that that Amazon is a great partner and not a competitor so it's kind of funny that they finally acknowledge that. Scot: [41:37] I think they've all slipped it into their or their 10 case there's this guy competitor kind of category in everyone's going to start it but Amazon in there. Jason: [41:46] Yeah and I think I got triggered first by Amazon listing them which is never never good news, the FedEx and UPS are doing some interesting moves the going back to the capacity problem they are both going to seven-day-a-week delivery so they've added Sunday as a delivery day, that is going to be interesting to watch out you know Amazon was just a lot of their own deliveries here in Chicago already like has been delivering on Sunday for some time and Amazon has a u.s. postal deal with. For Sunday delivery so like and I feel like the consumer expectation is it is is expanding the seven days and now we're seeing the other carriers. Trying to figure out an offering in that space and they're also doing some interesting things about reverse Logistics and so. UPS and FedEx have both like greatly expanded the their locker program and their pickup locations and I think. Last week UPS announced that they had done a deal with CVS Michaels and Advance Auto Parts to use those 12,000 stores as. Pick up locations for UPS packages in my mind that the CVS one is particularly interesting because. CVS I believe is also a pickup and return location for Amazon so you know. [43:12] It seems like as the healthcare industry is getting more challenging and and the prescription drug business getting more challenging like CVS is doing some interesting things to repurpose some of the the square footage in their stores. Scot: [43:24] Have you is there any anecdotal evidence how these return programs are doing it for everybody like is Kohl's benefiting from the Amazon thing or are people just kind of like. Jason: [43:33] So the 3rd party traffic monitors feel like holes traffic was up and Kohl's claim that their traffic was up, demonstrably in the pilot stores when they first when I first started taking returns and so Kohl's is totally Double Down they've expanded the returns to all their stores and Colts is really improve the logistics around the return so you cannot walk in a Kohl's with just a unpackaged item that you bought from Amazon and your order on your smartphone and Kohl's will take it back box it and do the whole thing for you a CVS will take that package back but they don't do all of that boxing Logistics portal you have to bring the package, can a ready to go in a CVS store and I know people always say like Josh kaul poses in bed with their competitor I actually think this is the smartest partnership I've ever seen a retard do with Amazon because, this this partnership is not giving Amazon access to Kohl's customers in any way this this partnership is really exclusively giving Kohl's access to Amazon's customers. Scot: [44:43] Yeah yeah I guess I'll never announce it let you know there's some percentage shopping in the store which. Jason: [44:52] Yeah exactly if you have to walk through that store you're going to serendipitously discover something and closes protected well suited for that because they're a little bit of a treasure hunt store anyway and that you know they tend to have a thin inventory you know of that turns regularly with lots of deals and so if you are Kohl's shopper and that triggers a couple extra visits when you're returning something you know you're very likely to discover something and if you're not a Kohl's Shopper it's even a bigger win for Kohl's if they get you to come in that store for the first time. Scot: [45:23] And then I'll give you the privilege and then you every time I go to Kohl's I get in line behind someone that's optimizing their their triangulation between like some kind of cash back thing Kohl's cash and something else and it's crazy like. Jason: [45:41] Yeah we call it doing a leveraged buyout on a t-shirt. Scot: [45:45] And then invariably they'll like walk away from a cart full of stuff to run and get like this was it's not BOGO but you know if I bought this and this I got double Kohl's cash and I can apply them in this and then they want to split the transaction with their significant other and it's like no they did a line for people that don't like just want to buy stuff and get out of store. Jason: [46:08] So for sure that's a common complaint in a number of retailers and Kohl's in particular like the more sophisticated those those reward programs are in the greater percentage of customers that are in those reward programs and take full advantage the more acute that problem is in the case of the Amazon returns it doesn't hurt you though because the Amazon returns as a separate counter within Kohl's so you're not waiting in line behind any of those people to return your Amazon package at Kohl's and a bunch of other retailers like Macy's a big part of their answer for you, is if you're not that super high Rewards customer that's doing that really complicated transaction there they're trying to get you to do mobile, Scan & go and check out without standing in line because they know that check out is a big a big pain point for them. [47:05] Yeah I'm not sure that the average Kohl's Shopper Macy Shopper has, then as early in the Doppler that technology as you probably are but like I I do think they're going to continue get more more traction we're seeing more and more stores. Go that way and that's that such a perfect segue to. Something we'll talk about in in just a minute but I had one more news topic I wanted to touch on before we get there. [47:31] So there's this awesome quote I use all the time that I think Andy done originally used maybe four or five years ago e-commerce is awesome. As long as you don't care about anybody off and the sort of ominous you know message there is customers are loving it it's a it's a better customer experience in many ways for a lot of use cases boat but when things you shouldn't lose sight of is the the unit economics of e-commerce are almost always unfavorable versus traditional retail unit economics and, two big reasons for that are shipping and returns and it's it's just been interesting I've seen some some. Not optimal news for eCommerce sites on both of those those costs this this month so you know one thing there's a report every year that comscore does called the state of the online retail industry and they share a bunch of data and Trends the Desi from there you know millions of customers that shop in their panel and one of the staff they always share every year is what percentage of sales every quarter were sold with free shipping. And so for holiday this year 85% of all e-commerce orders had free shipping. [48:56] And like three years ago it was 65% of all Commerce orders had that had free shipping so increasingly this is probably isn't surprising customers expect free shipping and they only by when they get free shipping, and that that's currently you know ramps up the the profitability challenge for retailers and then you know when you, you talk about like you know Amazon stepping on the gas and Walmart and Target quickly following them with one day shipping you know when you not have to give away free 1-day shipping, that's a real challenge to to e-commerce profitability and then. For many retailers the double whammy is returns tend to be much higher online and I saw a horrific stat this month, there's a logistics company called optoro that did a study and I'm not sure if I told you this I haven't been able to look in their methodology but they are claiming that the average rate of returns for e-commerce orders over the last five years has essentially doubled so the percent the percentage of returns at every e-commerce retailer twice as high today as they were in 2014. [50:12] And I don't know if that exact number is accurate this came from a Vogue article I'll put a. Lincoln the show notes but but even if it's just directionally accurate your returns are going up. That that's a huge stress to profitability in the example I was like to use when revolve had to disclose their Finance his revolve is a Edition Ada vertical Brandon the apparel space in 2018 they had almost a half billion dollars in online sale they sold 499 million online and on their books they they wrote down 531 million dollars in costs associated with returns. Scot: [50:59] Wow that's not skilled. Jason: [51:02] No nosso the unit economics on that suck. Scot: [51:06] It's a minus 20% or something. Jason: [51:09] Exactly and so obviously there's a ton of people working on, the problem of returns and there's a lot of you know interesting things that the people are doing above make it less expensive to do returns and diminish people's, interest in return but like early on an e-commerce industry you know everyone encouraged you to buy multiple sizes and send back what you didn't need I think I've sort of Zappos has. You'll be one of the first big retailers to really do that and now they're desperately trying to untrain all those customers to stop doing that. So not so you know that's going to be interesting stuff to watch as more and more of a sales volume shift to e-commerce were going to have to figure out these. Scot: [51:53] I'm not sure how you entertain people out of free shipping and returns so sweet. Jason: [51:59] Yeah I haven't seen it done in general it's very hard to unring a bell. So wrapping up as we're coming up on time here I have a couple upcoming trips that I'm excited about and we'll get to talk more about some of them but I'm actually headed to. Indianapolis and Dallas next week and the one of the reasons I'm excited about dialysis there's a couple stores, that haven't been to yet in the Dallas Market so one of the sources Neighborhood Market that this is one of the physical Marketplace stores. [52:34] Like merchandise a bunch of degenerative Brands and others in a physical space in the, the the store essentially collects rent from all the other brands in the Brand's keep all the the prophet of there or their sales so it's sort of a digital Marketplace. [52:48] In a physical manifestation they're going to be opening a store New York soon but I'm going to get to visit their original Plano store next week. [52:55] And then also in Dallas Sam's Club has a store called Sam's Club now which pair are skin and go conversation Sam's Club now, doesn't have a traditional check out so the only way to get out of the store is to scan and go and ask him super interesting virtual reality feature or augmented reality feature is to let you get better product information and wayfinding and stuff in the store so it's up a store that's totally designed around using your mobile phone while you're in the store so I'm I am, excited to see that and then, a little later in the month on August 20th I'm going to be at Eataly East which is a long-running e-commerce show in Boston and I know you can't join me but, I will be sure to take good notes and do a trip report there and we may be able to put down a couple of interesting interviews from some of the set from some interesting retailers that are attending that show so hopefully more on that and then if any of our our listeners are in Brazil or are familiar with Brazil I'm going to be doing my first trip to Brazil ever at the end of this month and I'm excited that Mercado Libre has invited me to come speak at their customer conference so, looking forward to checking out some of the the Brazilian retail and I'm eating a bunch of the sellers on that platform. Scot: [54:23] Hope you can screw them on marketplaces. Jason: [54:26] I have a feeling they already know a fair amount about marketplaces but I'll certainly try to add my spin but it won't be in Portuguese. Scot: [54:34] Yeah talk slow to the translators and keep up the I learned that the hard way. Jason: [54:40] Well that's that'll be easier because I'm such a slow talker just naturally oh wait nevermind I'm allowed talker that's what I am. Yeah so that is all the news we have for this week I apologize probably little longer than we hoped but that's part of the ramification of us not laying down a new chauffeur for a little longer than usual. Scot: [55:02] And thanks for joining somebody. Jason: [55:05] Yep and as usual of you enjoy the show we sure would appreciate that five star review on iTunes if you do have any questions or comments about any of the news from the show feel free to hit us up on our Facebook page or on Twitter and until next time, happy commercing.
Rank #2: EP112 - 2018 Predictions. EP112 - Annual Predictions for 2018 2017 Recap – Predictions made on episode 64 Jason Retailers truly embrace Omni-channel (Attribution/Inventory/promotion/pricing – YES A/I – Bots for Customer Service but probably not for transactions, lots of buzz on big data AI but no game changing new experience – No Personalization – to eliminate friction, not drive new demand. Data integration not some new product or touchpoint –No Laggard categories will discover digital (Grocery, Luxury, QSR) – Yes Microservices – 50% of new platform implementations will be cloud, and Micro-service based solutions will start to emerge – Partial Jason 2017 Score 2.5/5 Scot The IPO market is going to be open, but the e-commerce companies will get crowded out by the big tech unicorns like Uber, Snap, pinterest, airbnb, spotify and the like – Partial Amazon will start to chip away at the Fedex and UPS’s of the world with a service like this in the US. – No Machine learning is the new ‘network effect’ – everyone has caught onto the power and competitive moats available from ML and that’s going to be a big theme. Every vendor you work with from carts to images to upsells to recommendations to search engine results to whatever is going to HAVE to have a ML capability to stay current and keep YOU competitive. – Yes We’re going to see e-commerce growth accelerate pretty materially in 2017. We’ve been in this 15% band and I think we will see there was a move up in 2H16 to high teens and we could see 20’s in 2017 – Yes eBay – it’s a do or die year for ebay, they could potential partner with Alibaba. – No Scot 2017 Score 2.5/5 2018 Predictions Scot Mallageddon 2.0 – We saw 7000 stores close in 2017, I think this accelerates in 2018 as the 30-40% of weak malls fail and we end up with 9000 closures. Amazon will NOT buy another offline retailer, triples down on private label. I’m going to re-up on my Amazon logistics prediction, I think I was just a bit too early on that one, but I’ll make it bolder, that Amazon will squarely get in the last mile business in 2018 and compete with FedEx and UPS.Amazon’s ad group will get so large that they have to break out details about it and everyone will be shocked at how large it has gotten so quickly Walmart will make a big M+A – top candidates would be Instacart, postmates and eBay. Somebody acquires magento, or they go public. Bonus – Amazon comes out with alexa powered wireless earbuds – because I want them. Jason Grocery gets disrupted by digital (led by curbside pickup). Digital grocery doubles in US, at least one delivery firm peters out. Drug gets disrupted by digital. AI Gap – biggest trend of 2018 Voice – Huge but not for commerce. Payments – Retail digital wallets die (except Starbucks/Walmart/Amazon). Bitcoin tanks. Bonus – Amazon launches a wearable. Don’t forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 112 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday, January 3rd, 2018. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, SVP Commerce & Content at SapientRazorfish, and Scot Wingo, Founder and Executive Chairman of Channel Advisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. New beta feature – Google Automated Transcription of the show Transcript Jason: [0:25] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 112 being recorded on Wednesday January 3rd 2018 I’m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I’m here with your Tahoe Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Happy New Year Jason and happy New Year to Jason and Scott show listeners Welcome to our first show recorded in 2018. Jason: [0:50] It’s very cool I’m excited to start the new year I feel like it’s going to be another action packed one in our in our jonra. Scot: [0:59] Yeah that’s the fun thing about retail I feel like we could do a daily podcast weekly is even hard to catch all the news that’s going on. Jason: [1:07] That is true but then I feel like there’s a lot of fans begging that me not to do any more than I already do but that was might just be me and not. Scot: [1:17] Cool. What’s up long-time listeners will know that it is a regular feature of our show that the first episode of January is our annual prediction show so this is our third shot at this Jason. So pretty exciting so let’s take it off by looking at last year’s predictions and seeing how we did Jason was start with you. Jason: [1:45] This is the part of the show I hate. Scot: [1:47] So if listeners are really really want to learn more about these things you can go back to episode 64 that was the last year’s preview show and I and you can listen to that and see how we did and 16 compared to 17 in here the 17 predictions you don’t have to do that there were going to summarize them for you here but if you really are curious about anything we bring up and want more color, you can go back to episode 64. Okay Jason last year you and the way we did this as we had 5 predictions and a bonus so effectively 6 predictions so let’s go through them last year your. Top prediction was that retailers will truly Embrace omni-channel and you talked about attribution inventory promotions and pricing. How do you feel that prediction did through 2017. Jason: [2:33] Yep. So I generally feel good about that prediction I’m calling that went to win there a bunch of things that happened last year that were, probably hard for people to observe, but but most retailers did get more sophisticated about their omni-channel attribution models we saw a ton of retailers move to Universal inventory we saw a lot more Universal pricing and then some of the the highly visible things we saw were like Target made two major Acquisitions in shipped and, Grand Junction to improve their omni-channel Wal-Mart rolled out of town of omni-channel initiatives with the pickup towers and express returns and discounted ship-to-store, Kroger and Costco both rolled out curbside pickup so I think across-the-board I’m giving that one true. Scot: [3:26] Yeah but when I go to Best Buy they still can’t look up my rewards number and if I do an online order they have no idea what happened to the cash register traffic crazy but I’ll still give you this one. Jason: [3:37] I think there are still a lot lots of gaps but I would argue in your specific example that’s Alessa not embracing on me channel cuz I would argue, Best Buy does embrace quite a bit about me channel it’s a date I’ll retailer still have a ton of data silos regardless of Channel and sew-in your point like, rewards just aren’t willing a greater to the store and that’s a shame. Scot: [3:59] 4 meter Omni channel is breaking out of this data silos. Jason: [4:03] I only want to live in your happy world I do. Scot: [4:06] Cool alright so so far that’s one win and 0 losses. Jason: [4:12] Feel free to stop here if we want. Scot: [4:14] And that’s it well unfortunately we’ve wasted another 5 minutes of your time. But seriously your second prediction was calling for Bots for customer service but not transactions lots of buzz on big data and AI but no game-changing new experiences. Jason: [4:35] Yep so even though I kind of Madhuri to the prediction by saying more buzzed than game-changing experiences I’m still giving myself a false on this one because I think it was, even more hype and the last tangible stuff then I was predicting so I think you don’t right out of the gate, there’s a new chat services and there was a lot of hype about new customer service, offerings on those chat services but they were universally stupid and none of them got embraced by customers and you know after that initial hype I just don’t think we saw a lot of a lot of traction so I’m giving the whole the whole box thing in 2017 did not happen. Scot: [5:19] Even Facebook seems to not be talking about it as much and didn’t one of their big Partners kind of shut down the bar that was it 800-Flowers or everlane or one of those like one of the launch Partners kind of said yeah we’re not doing this anymore. Jason: [5:33] Yeah I think that was everlane 800-Flowers is famous or notorious for being one of the first adopters of everything and so it’s almost. It’s not predictive of something being successful the fact that 800-Flowers is one Embraces it cuz they they like to be the first mover. Scot: [5:51] Shut it off though. Jason: [5:53] Yeah no absolute. Scot: [5:54] Tahlequah this is like it’s either hard to maintain or actually bad customer experience or something I don’t know. Third is one of your favorite topics personalization, so you said to eliminate friction but not really Drive new to me and data integration not some new product or touch point I don’t know what any of that means so maybe recap what you were thinking there. Jason: [6:17] Yeah so I hate talking about personalization because it’s a amorphous sort of thing, and so what would I said what would I try to say in the prediction was that I think we’re going to see a lot of better personalization but that doesn’t equal like some magic new widget on the web website that just automatically more personalized than the old widget, what I was really expecting to see is retailers merge a lot of their Silo data to provide, more seamless experiences and eliminate friction across the board and you unfortunately already alluded to a perfect example of that not happening, that you you went into Best Buy and they couldn’t couldn’t figure out your year membership Rewards. Status with Best Buy and that’s because all those their systems are siloed at Best Buy, and so in my mind. My prediction was that a lot of those eyelids would get eliminated in 2017 and while I could point to a couple of retailers that had made some progress in eliminating those silos, I still think there’s a ton of silos and I think we all at Shoppers put up with a lot of ridiculous friction that we don’t even realize, because of how at retailers of organize their their systems in their data and I I just don’t think we made near as much, progresses I optimistically hope for 2017 so I’m I’m giving myself a fail on this one as well. Scot: [7:48] Wright’s that’s one win to faience your 4th prediction this was a good one ladder categories will discover digital and you mentioned to grocery luxury and Quick Serve restaurants. Jason: [8:01] Yep and I feel like this was going to get me back to even I I gave this prediction a true, for those of you that follow the grocery category you may have heard of the Amazon made an acquisition in the space in the whole food so that was certainly. A grocery retailer discovering digital we also saw a huge investment from Kroger and Walmart and grocery, that US are as a Quick Serve restaurants and they all Embrace digital in a big way in 2017 so both McDonald’s and Taco Bell rolled out, Order ahead of course the the Weider a farm before last year and in this was Starbucks but most of the traditional to SRS, Nina played significant catch up in 2017 and then also a lot of the luxury Brands got more serious about digital for a long time then they over it we said that, digital was eroding to their their brands and that they they wanted the experience to be in the dressing room and not online and you know all of those old luxury houses that used to say that launched, direct-to-consumer e-commerce sites in 2017 some of them even started started, toe dipping on some of the the marketplaces and and so again you know I think across-the-board grocery Luxury Inn Key West are where three categories that made big strides forward in digital in 2017 so I call that trip. Scot: [9:30] I agree that even better than the order had at McDonald’s have you had one of the touchscreen kind of order things those are pretty cool. Jason: [9:37] Yep absolutely. Scot: [9:39] Less errors on your order. Jason: [9:41] To management that you and I are a couple dialogues on, I know twittering about some of the bad G Management in traditional retail seems like you got a lot of bad physical retail experience is rightly and those those kiosks are all part of the wait time management system at at McDonald’s which is very clever. Scot: [10:00] Alright so let’s see we are at 2 and 2 now and so your V addiction, was extremely retailgeek e microservices 50% of new platform implementations will be cloud and microservice based Solutions will start to emerge. Jason: [10:18] Yep and so for those of you that that aren’t Super retailgeek E like this is the notion that most people that run the e-commerce site, own the software and run it on a server that they own like either on their their services are in a Datacenter that they rent in so this this prediction was really that like half of all the new platforms, would instead be in the cloud so you know Amazon web services or Google Cloud platform or Microsoft azure, and that most of them instead of being this big monolithic piece of software would be these newer platforms that are kind of a collection of little api’s or little services, that you got most think of his Legos that you snap together to create your experiences and. [11:05] I think these are both super important Trends if you talk to the CIO at any retailer like they’re their the trends that they’re falling and it’s what they hope to add a brace in the future. But in 2017 at all amounted to more talk than action so. We we actually didn’t see a lot of rhe platforming in 2017 impact in many ways I’d say it was one of the slowest years in The Last 5 Years in RI platforming. So it’s hard to call this trend a complete win when there just weren’t that many new platforms. It is true that of the new platforms the overwhelming majority were on the cloud so I kind of get myself credit for that. Never retailers like Nordstrom that was on this podcast last year and they talked about migrating everything from an on-premise solution to a cloud-based solution. We we’ve had a billy May on that on the show who now run is the CEO at Sur La Table and they’re in the process of moving to a cloud-based solution but, they just weren’t a ton of replat for Mains and the micro service-based architectures while everyone loves talking about. They had fewer wins in 2017 than I anticipated so I kind of gave myself a half credit on this one Cloud yes microservices know. Scot: [12:26] Yeah I think I learned from last year to be less for Bose in my my predictions gives you more chances to be, so then your bonus was around payments to another one your favorite topics and you said kind of on the topic of digital wallets that something other than PayPal Amazon will achieve 10% of us e-commerce transactions excluding Amazon such as Chase Walmart Apple pay, Apple sound Safari or the w3c web payment standards could gain traction so give us an update on how you did on that one. Jason: [13:06] Yeah so that one would be a mixed one that’s another example of not writing very smart predictions, it turns out I don’t have a way to measure whether or not specifically say that we did I will say like that Walmart pay actually got more traction and Buzz than I certainly was expecting, but of course nowhere near 10% of all non Amazon transactions, and in the one that that I haven’t seen any data about consumer adoption on, but has gotten a lot of adoption with e-commerce platform supporting it is is the thing I reference there the w3c, web payment standard and so this is a a super quick recap for listeners this is he, a new standard for typing your credit card into a web browser it’s an open standard that’s embraced by the 8th the the standards community that publish HTML, it’s now been implemented by Google so it’s in all the Chrome browsers, it is in the Microsoft browser it’s it’s not an apple browser yet, but it makes it dramatically easier to store your credit card on your local machine and safely. Automatically enter it in in websites when you make payments and so. [14:39] Again like all the Shopify site supported all the demandware site supported a lot of the big e-commerce sites have added support for it, so on the one hand. More than 10% of the top 500 websites probably support it but we don’t know yet whether whether consumers are leveraging it or not so. It was a bonus so maybe the score doesn’t matter but it definitely felt like a poorly worded prediction and you don’t mix results. Scot: [15:08] Yeah I don’t know I wonder if do you think that stripe in Braintree have gotten over 10% cuz they’re doing the majority of Mobile payment. Jason: [15:17] They are but I am not sure I consider stripe or Braintree a wallet, so as a payment processor like they’re they’re like stripe in particular is killing it on the long tail, Braintree is a little more focused on the mid-market or Enterprise, companies that let you know there’s some Visa owns a company called cybersource which does great on the on the Enterprise side they all have big market share but they what they don’t let you do is store your credit card once, and then leverage it across multiple sites that you shop and so they don’t like, remove a ton of friction from the e-commerce experience because they let you reuse your payment information over and over again. Scot: [16:02] When when a side I know you know this but Apple pay rolled out their cash peace and they have been pushing it super hard I can’t, you know I buy phone alerts me every 5 seconds I need to set up Apple pay now and I’ve actually it’s kind of sad story I’ve given up on Apple pay because I’ve had to set it up so many times between my watch and Os installation like I finally give up on the the the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze on that one but it’s interesting that now that I’m out of it that it really suddenly aggressively wants me to set it up so they must Apple kind of is woken up, Bond Apple pay stub. Jason: [16:37] Yeah that like my my like brief editorial on that like that they have a very good experience, under certain circumstances, and they’re they’re doing a good job of expanding those circumstances so this year they want to the ability to to use Apple pay in a browser which was a huge deal and it in late in the year they watch ability to do peer to peer payments with Apple pay in that potentially huge deal, but the problem the fundamental problem with the Apple pay is, you know at best and only works for the subset of the world that are that are in the Apple echo system, and some of these painted things require even a much narrower subset like only on the latest Hardware that has a particular chip in it or only on the very latest version of the operating system in the latest version of the Safari browser, and so it just, it it’s not apples goal to be a world dominant ubiquitous payment system right I get it really is just a utility for for Apple users. And I think that that limits its its broad appeal. Scot: [17:43] So I just kind of keeping score there I think you got a solid 2 to 3 out of your 6 predictions so it will give you a kind of 50%. Jason: [17:51] Yeah that was basically my performance in college so I’m okay with it. Scot: [17:55] I think it’s a baseball baseball you be here. Jason: [17:58] Yeah that would be much better hitter than I was a student hi Scott you I think of is much more cerebral than me so let’s see how you did. [18:09] I like setting the table. You’re super smart and you’re always like really really prescient about your prediction so, I’m sure you nailed it I think your first prediction was about the IPO markets and that there was going to be a lot more, action in the IPO Market in 2017 but the e-commerce companies might get crowded out of the space as of these big Uber snap Pinterest Airbnb spotify’s in the like all do their IPOs side note did I hear a rumor that Spotify, maybe Miss 2017 and just just filed this year. Scot: [18:44] I know why why could they not do it earlier but I don’t know where is an Uber would have filed if they didn’t have to go to there. Poop show that they’re Lawton right now that with the name cian all snap made it out and. Actually did pretty poorly and effectively close the idea window for the big guys and then they all have their own issues so I mentioned Uber kind of imploded on some things there I don’t airbnb’s is prior. Great candidate for next year Pinterest I don’t know. Were there on the revenue they change their Chief Revenue people a lot which makes me nervous. And then as you mentioned spotify’s filed the. You’re kind of the thing I got wrong here is Stitch fix made it out we talked about a lot of the show and I’m super happy for them, another one that was frequently mentioned as a possible IPO can it was chewy and they got Acquired and then Casper is always been kind of out there as as Dollar Shave Club Dollar Shave Club good acquired to also I’m so. You know I think the IPOs to watch for next year and e-commerce world are going to be. Casper and then some watches his big guys and how they perform so. It’s worded the wording on the sun makes it hard to know so the window did open so I get credit for that but I was kind of wrong on the mix of companies that got out so I gave my car myself half credit on that. Jason: [20:07] That seems fair so your second prediction I was when we talked about a lot on the show, Amazon will start to chip away at FedEx and UPS, are logistic services in the US and you convoluted we made it a 2018 prediction you said hey and 2818 Amazon could even expand into peer-to-peer in River suggest X. Scot: [20:32] Yeah they I’m going to get myself a fail on this one when we talk about new predictions I want to talk about it again but when things. The trend that we talked about on the show but I think it’s good to summarize it here the amount of consumers that want. Things over to them is outpacing the investment that FedEx and UPS are making and also USPS so there something has to give and it some point. Amazon being the largest I’d I’m fully. Going to committed that they’re going to build their own capability was flexing what would happen in 2017 is flex was started influxes an Uber light delivery system eating 1099 drivers they have an app. Amazon signals to them and then they come and make deliveries they started this for Prime now and increasingly through 2017 we saw Amazon using Flex the driver system for just normal deliveries as well. And even in the holiday ever heard a lot of reports of a mixture so flex and then actually fulfillment center employees doing deliveries and all kinds of things so I think. I think some of this happened behind the scenes but it wasn’t kind of to the degree I was thinking in this year so it’s something’s going to give so we’ll see. Thought I’ll get myself a fail this year. Jason: [21:48] Tough grader but I like it, your third prediction was about machine learning and you you said that was going to be the new network effect that everyone’s trying to recognize the power and competitive mode that are available for machine learning and it’s going to be a dick theme, every vendor you work with some Cars 2 images recommendations engines you know search engines are all going to have to have machine one and capability. Test a current then and keep keep their customers competitive. Scot: [22:18] Yeah again I should have been less wordy on that one but. I’m going to say when you when you look at kind of the cloud vendors out there so I’ll I’ll say Amazon for sure is all in on machine learning. As part of their Cloud conference which is called AWS reinvent. It was all machine learning all the time pretty much most of the new Innovations they talked about over there is multiple tracks but the biggest track was machine learning Google this year at their annual conference the kind of said we went from. You know search first it’s a mobile first to machine learning first and they they’re putting. You all their resources into Ai and machine learning and then if we if we can look at the the. E-commerce endures you can’t throw a stick it in these trade shows without hitting a machine learning or AI vendors to everyone that I run into every vendor is now fully is probably even. Little bit bubbly you know so it seems hard that all this can live up to the hype at this point. But you know what I look at the platform guys you certainly know more about this than I do but but Salesforce is done a lot of really interesting things we had Rob on the show. I kind of talked about this a little bit so they have Einstein is there a machine learning platform and weeding Dad into the platform previously known as demand where is pretty interesting and I think very indicative of what we’re going to be here I’m as as goes even deeper. So I’m giving myself a yes on this one. Jason: [23:48] .. I think that’s fair I think you nailed it that the the vendors were all embracing it and I and I think there’s a rain everyone did embrace it exactly you said the big vendors I think we’re all in with like, a huge amount of effort and then I think the long tail vendors, certainly added machine learning to their marketing and nothing else so I certainly think you nailed it there I’m not sure if there was, ubiquitous progress in terms of the actual retailers and customers embracing all those vendors Solutions in in 2017 Infiniti that’s what you predicted. Scot: [24:22] Yeah at least separate data silos you talk about to be a problem you know so if you don’t have the single view of the customer machine learning can’t really get it. How’s it going because it’s going to see little pieces what’s happening there so so that this can be an impediment to so he’s Advanced Technologies with the traditional omni-channel multi-data Silo retailer. Jason: [24:42] Yep so then you’re 4th prediction, was what I think we’re all rooting for we’re going to see e-commerce growth accelerate material in 2017 and so you were saying hey it’s been at 15% the last couple years, will see you move up in the second half of 2016 in the high teens and we we could even see the 20% sin 2017. Scot: [25:08] Yeah what I learned about this one was I should have thought something that I would know by the time the next show world around so we the jury is out on this one cuz we just don’t know how the year ended up. Receive data out of MasterCard comscore a couple those folks that are pointing to iTunes and I’m seeing 1819 % the one Dana Point I want to see is Amazon. I think it’s pretty sure that Amazon is going to come in north of 20% but I think there’s a shot and released just talking about. The strength of prime and your 5 billion Prime things and I don’t know. Nursing Amazon kind of leaning into it like there right now so it makes me feel like. [25:53] Maybe their Q4 came in more towards 30% and that would make me feel a lot better that that Savannah’s on comes in kind of north of 25 then I think the whole holiday for everyone came in. 20% something myself yes based on the data available and kind of the body language coming out of Amazon right now. Jason: [26:10] I think that’s fair, incident in your V prediction was about eBay in you you basically said it was a big infection year for eBay assorted do or die and then they could even potentially do a partnership with someone like Alibaba. Scot: [26:29] Yeah yeah that didn’t happen so I guess it wasn’t a do-or-die you’re so you know on the negative side they lost how Lawton who it was so great leader there. Friend of both of ours is over at Macy’s now so it’s a win for Macy’s but you don’t know company is one person so you may is doing a lot of great things are getting more structured data from sellers their category tent is. Things to do while they are improving their relationships with sellers they’re improving buyer. Programs that are implementing a prime like program so they’re doing a lot of good stuff it just seems like when you when you look at this kind of Battle of Titans that goes on there and you’ve got. You know the the Google’s the Amazons the Walmart this guy’s just have so many resources compared to eBay now eBay’s kind of. Small in that world it just feels like they have more leverage is part of something else but I called it wrong so I’m going to get myself a big fat zero on that. Jason: [27:26] Fair enough and then your bonus prediction was awesomely bold Amazon will release another phone. Scot: [27:34] Yeah this is Phil I kind of thought it would be interesting to have internet to have Alexa to swing back and visit the phone and make it a kind of an Alexa oriented phone didn’t do it so I was wrong. Jason: [27:48] I like the prediction nevertheless and if I’m doing my math right that put you also at, about two and a half out of 5 so we sort of sort of both finish the same I don’t want to say tide because it wasn’t a contest. Scot: [28:04] Yeah but together we had a hundred percent that’s why piece of people listen to the show. Jason: [28:11] But enough about the past let’s talk about what’s going to happen in 2018. Scot: [28:18] Yep so so I had some predictions to walk us through here so first of all I am reading a lot of articles that say. Retail is on the upswing and everything’s great. You have that happens every Q4 and I think it’s going to be short-lived I think we’re going to see Mama getting to oh this year last year we saw 7,000 stores close. And I think you sent me more than that they close this year so I’m saying you know, I still think there’s 30 to 40% malls out there that are very weak and failing and I’m going to say the store closure goes up and I just kind of picked a number because I learn to be more specific I sent from last year’s predictions, I meant to say we have 9,000 or higher closures by the end of 2018 so it will be an even worse year than 2017. I get a lot of tweets from these kinds of predictions. I want stores be open but I just think it’s the reality that things are going a little bit worse in the the physical. Store World especially malls before they get better I do think this is not an official prediction but I think you know 2018 oh probably be the low point then we’ll we’ll come back out of it. Jason: [29:30] Yeah I’m going to pile on your prediction in just say that, both are true like retail could do better in 2018 we have so many stores in us that 9000 Source could close and retail sales could still go up, so so that the two aren’t necessarily completely related but for sure seems like there’s still a bunch of vulnerable malls and vulnerable department stores in it, frankly it wouldn’t surprise me if this is the year we see Sears close its doors. Scot: [30:00] The second one in this was kind of. I was going to make this anyway but today in the press a friend of ours Gene Munster was out saying hey I think Amazon is going to buy Target and and he had kind of some interesting reasons behind that. Scott Galloway is been kind of pounding his chest that they’re going to buy either Macy’s or Nordstrom’s or something like that I’m going to go out and say I think Amazon’s plate is full with Whole Foods they did that very specifically for grocery, and they’re not going to buy another on. Online retailer of size I think they’ll still open their own book stores will Pisces some more of that as grocery go kind of things and that kind of thing but I just don’t see them buying another brick and mortar retailer, Chicago long with that I think that they had huge success with private label and they’re going to Triple down on that so kind of a double Amazon prediction there. Jason: [30:56] Nice I like it I like you being contrarian. Scot: [31:01] Write number three for me is I’m going to go back to my Amazon Logistics prediction because I think this is inevitable because of the you know what he charged this out the lines have to cross at some point at some point the number of packages, to be delivered even by Amazon alone exceed the capacity to be delivered out there Amazon I’m sure he’s aware of that and you know if I’m down my I’m kind of. [31:24] Planning for that eventuality so so again I think that in 2018 that. You know that they are going to essentially do a lot more with Last Mile and effectively compete with FedEx and UPS certainly for their own packages and maybe for others. [31:41] Number for TSO on this one we haven’t talked about Walmart in the prediction so I wanted to throw something in there for them I think I think Mark Lori is not done and I think they’ve done a lot there and I think she is just. Starting to get swinging and you know I think the Walmart Wall Street likes this kind of really aggressive posture that they’ve adopted and I think that gives them a lot of flexibility so as I think will win what’s next on is. Play I think they do a big m&a and you know part of me you would know better than that. Groceries in wrestling I don’t think they buy another grocery store though so I can’t think what would it look like like Trader Joe’s or something. Yeah so. You know now that Target is bought shipped I could see Walmart taken out instacart or Postmates and then eBay is still kind of out there and I think. Would be very powerful as a Marketplace partner for Walmart so I kind of put them in that bucket as well. Jason: [32:51] Cool cool. Scot: [32:52] Then any comments on them. Jason: [32:56] No I mean I feel like they’ve been rewarded for all the Acquisitions that they made in the last 18 months are there probably in Bolton so I would certainly be surprised, Ted not see some acquisition activity in in. 2018 your your prediction seem to be around capability and infrastructure which could totally be a lot of their Acquisitions that’s far have been. Actual Brands and so it’ll, it just that out that’ll be interesting to see how that you know where where the focus is in 2018 and I suspect it could be opportunistic as much as strategic in terms of who’s available at the right price. Scot: [33:36] Yeah it kind of ties back to last year’s Casper thing. You know that’s a nice scaled-up brand that once it starts down diepio path you have kind of this one time shot to go buy them I think that’s probably why she got taken out I think they were kind of, Abdul pathan when you start filing for an IPO and having m&a talks so that could not throw that one in there to Casper could be a candidate. My V prediction here is and I’m kind of getting into your world a little bit just cuz I wanted to see your reaction or anything. Platform guy but you know the one platform that seems kind of out there alone is Magento so they were part of eBay they spun out that private Equity that means the Tock the clock is ticking, it’s a great platform I think that they kind of do this tool path that they start down the going public and then they probably get acquired, I’m not sure who acquires them seems like maybe a lot of the. Cloud guide a lot of big guys have their Cloud solution nailed at this point. Maybe Oracle maybe sap maybe IBM. And so now you have more insight into the to the possible choir is it still learn to be less specific I’m not going to be specific on a choir so I think so kind of gets added into a larger Cloud offering. Jason: [35:01] Interesting yeah so it’s it was a weird year in platforms as far as I’m concerned like for a long time, you got a lot of retailers that had no platform and said you know every year a bunch of retailers were buying a platform to start selling direct to sell digital am so you had to want a platform sales every year or you had a bunch of retailers it invested early and we’re in some outdated platform and so there you know every every like 3 to 5 years retailers were rhe platforming as the technology got dramatically better, and so you ended up with these three huge Enterprises sap IBM in Oracle. That were you know making a fortune on all these reply for meetings you had demandware now I’m by Salesforce to the big cloud one. For long-time Magento dominated the long tail and then you know more recently Shopify sort of a cloud SAS version of. Avalon tail has his emerged in course there’s a lot of other platforms but was weird that 2017 is. No the Enterprise ones did particularly well I feel like the pace of RI platforming dramatically slowed down. You’re hard-pressed to find someone that doesn’t already have a platform so there’s less new customers entering the market so it’s more replat forming and it feels like people. Sort of the come to the realization that you don’t dramatically get better customer experiences just by replat for me and so it seems like a lot more people just invested in. New tools are new plugins or new customer experiences for their existing platforms rather than reply for me. [36:35] And I feel like that was an economic challenge for all these big companies that were used to. A lot of expense every platforming happening every year and then you add insult to injury. They’re able to charge a lot more or are certainly recognize a lot more revenue for selling a big expensive on Primm. Perpetual software license then they are for selling s a service and so I think, all the big guys had this double whammy of the economic model shifted that wasn’t favorable in terms of a gaap reporting in the customer slow down and so that you might find in a way that puts those, does kind of Legacy guys that might have snapped at Magento for their customer base in the less of a acquisition posture so, I would personally be a little surprised if one of those big 3 Snapchat Magento Magento still is an interesting asset and that they have tons of users, in some ways there are more modern platform and something a lot of the other ones we talked about because they have kind of free architected more recently. [37:39] There, there may be a step closer to cloud and some of these other guys but they’re not pure Cloud their step closer to microservices but they’re not pure microservices so, there I don’t know if they’re there an interesting I said they’ve got a bunch of users there maybe a half-step more modern and then so you know could could someone want to accelerate their own plan by by acquiring what Magento has, you you could totally see it but it definitely isn’t a slam dunk. Scot: [38:11] And then assess my main 5 and then my bonus at this is really because I want it to be true, and I know Jeff Bezos listen to the show so I have airpods which I really like but the Siri on them really stinks so what I want is Amazon to come out with Alexa powered wireless earbuds kind of an airpod competitor but with Alexa because I just want to sit there and have a conversation with Alexa what while I have little white things in my ears or whatever color the potty black or something so so my prediction is that Amazon will come out with that in 2018 and I have my fingers and toes crossed. Jason: [38:51] I like it the other way that can happen is Amazon and apple could just merge I don’t think either could acquire each other. So so they could just merge and then they could put they could replace Siri with Alexa and then the airpods what’s your point of great Hardware could just have Alexa in the world would be a happy place. Scot: [39:10] My prediction is more likely than yours but I encourage you to make your prediction in your section. Jason: [39:16] No no no no I’m leaving that one firmly in your section alright, well let’s run down my 5 so we we talk a little bit about grocery it was a prediction that they would wake up to digital last year I think this is the year that they totally get disrupted by digital and I think the thing that’s going to, mainly drive that is curbside pickup, so I actually think the digital grocery revenue is going to double in 2018 / 2017 we’re going to see a bunch of retards, roll out a lot more capability to take digital orders for grocery. And I think some of these delivery services could be the odd man out a lot of people have invested in building is delivery services like instacart. And I actually think if if we see huge momentum for curbside pickup that we could see you know at least one of those delivery services get too stressed and have to do some kind of. Disadvantaged transaction and that that that could include instacart as far as I’m concerned. [40:22] So that’s my first prediction is a lot more of us will be shopping for groceries digitally in 2018. Scot: [40:30] You think curbside not not full on delivery. Jason: [40:33] Yeah I mean I think there’s some rich rich neighborhoods that are highly dense that the delivery will make a lot of sense. And you know that might disproportionately be people that listen to the show but I think for the average American it’s going to be picking up your groceries on your way home from soccer practice. I think that’s a. Winning experience it’s 1% of sales in the US at 6% of sales in the UK it’s like 12% of sales in South Korea. I think the early Pilots of all been so successful in the US that we’re just going to see sea rabbit adoption which by the way is going to mean that the retailers like Kroger and Walmart are going to report. Much higher than industry average e-commerce sales in 28 growth in 2018 because they’re there the guys that are going to most benefit from. From this grocery disruption I think an Amazon’s case it means we’re going to see Amazon roll out some kind of national capability for curbside pickup whether that means leveraging Whole Foods are building more of the. Amazonfresh pickup locations or acquiring some other other business. Opportunistic Lee that’s you know distressed in that the Amazon can get a really good deal on to give them more of these pick up Depot location. Scot: [41:55] Cool what’s number two. Jason: [41:56] Number 2 is a after grocery gets disrupted Pharmacy / prescription drugs are going to get disrupted by digital in in 2018. So we we’ve seen some some early moves from Amazon that they might be getting into medical equipment. And it wouldn’t surprise me of Amazon is the big drug disrupter in 2018 I know you predicted that they wouldn’t do a retail acquisition in 2018. Well I kind of agree that they’re probably not strategically looking to acquire another big retailer I think I prefer Amazon has a lot of cash in there totally opportunistic so if the right deal fell into their laps I think they would do it. And I actually think digital could so distressed the drug business that the drug retailers become. A very economical acquisition or we can see some of the drug guys move out of the retail business and into the the insurance business more and then just want to spin off the retail and sell it cheap. Here’s the thing to know about drug 60% of all their sales are traffic that came in to fill a prescription so if consumers start for filling their prescriptions VIA mail at home. Or ordering stuff online and having it delivered to home then those retail stores don’t work if there’s not enough traffic in there to dry them. They’re they’re not price competitive they tend to sell stuff at full pop retail and there’s too many of them so you add all that up and it would not take a huge amount of digital success to totally disrupt the drug business. [43:37] And then you got the fact that the scariest business retailer in the world Amazon is is looking pretty carefully at the space. And I think one way or another it’s a safe bet that drug gets heavily disrupted in 28. Scot: [43:48] Go to could help me with my 9000 stores I need. Jason: [43:51] Yeah absolutely and I I mean I also think just the changes in the insurance. Industries in the US in the government Healthcare and all those other things are are potentially favorable consumers are learning that you have to shop for prices on your prescription meds just like you do. You know any any other consumer expense and I think that that’s going to further open the door for that stuff so I hopefully it does help you out. [44:16] So my third prediction is that the. What I’m calling the the machine winning Gap is going to be the biggest trend for 2018 so you already said in a pretty last year that all the vendors would Embrace machine learning in a big way I think that totally happened. I mentioned I didn’t think a lot of retailers that necessarily. Fully Embrace machine learning and in 2017 I think they’re only a few examples. In 2018 I think we’re going to see some retailers dramatically Embrace machine learning. And we’re going to see a bunch of other retailers not embrace it does not have the resources or just you know be superficial and you know pay lip service or buy some. Some small product that leverages it and so I think we’re going to see a big gap I think we’re going to see some retailers that are really good at machine learning and have. Have them built it into their culture and a breaking down all those data silos and they’re just looking for every opportunity to train a logarithm is with all this customer data and use it to. Deliver way better customer experiences and we’re going to see a bunch of other retailers that either don’t do anything or a very superficial and I think we’re going to see a big gap and customer experiences between those two camps. I think you know obviously the the folks in Embrace machine learning we are going to be well positioned for the future in the sweater or doctors are going to get left behind. [45:39] I don’t know how will measure that exactly so number for, is voice I get asked that voice all the time that speak about natural language processing in boys Commerce I’m actually think 2018 is going to be a huge year for voice, I go to CES this weekend I’m expecting we’re going to see you way more, voice interfaces than ever before and I do think there’s going to be a lot more adoption of them in 2018 then there has been so far which I think 2017 was a big year but I actually don’t think. A very big use case for all of these voice interfaces is going to be Commerce so my my prediction is, voice continues to be a big deal for for interfaces for home automation for stuff like that but that it’s not going to be a big. Use case for ordering products and the one exception to that is going to be the sort of Auto replenishment and using. Using voice to add things to your auto replenishment list and kind of pause your list and modified and do those kind of think so I think with the exception of that one category where your. You’re adjusting your consumable orders I think voices overhyped for Commerce is that a Debbie Downer for you. Scot: [46:59] You’re such a voice guy I’m so processing it I’m in shock. Jason: [47:03] I do like the sound of my own voice that is true. [47:07] My fist it wouldn’t be a Jason and Scott prediction show if I didn’t talk about payments. [47:17] So there’s a big Trend towards every retailer launching their own digital wallets Target is launching a digital while at right now in my big prediction is none of these retail brand of digital wallets are going to work. I think there’s only room in the world the North American market for three digital wallets I think that’s going to be Starbucks Walmart Amazon so I don’t think other retailers are are going down the right path by, by trying to implement that, and I would heavily advised folks to 2 or I wouldn’t advise anyone now that I think about it but I think big point is going to take this year so I know there’s been a lot of Buzz and hide about Bitcoin, super optimistic about blockchain and cyber cyber currencies in general but I just I don’t think Bitcoins going to be. The viable currency to to emerge out of all this. Scot: [48:09] The okay so does that include blockchain and other coins or are just pick one. Jason: [48:17] So I don’t think we’re going to see a legal currency. That the Cyber currency in 2018 I think we’re going to see blockchain becoming a super important technology for, storing value for for Franklin sharing a lot of data and doing interesting things and a lot of Industry so I I certainly think blockchain is a super important and valuable, technology but I don’t think we’re going to see you, a branded currency emerge as a meaningful competitor to $2 and in 2018, and I think the coin is going to be considerably less valuable on December 31st then it was December 31st of this year. Scot: [49:00] It’s too bad you didn’t make that prediction last year. Jason: [49:03] Yep. Scot: [49:04] That’s a good on Jack tonight we had many listeners ask for a deep dive on crypto and blockchain, that is on our list for 2018 so we plan on doing a deep dive on that just so I do think and do some Sherby agree I think it’s important for folks in retail and e-commerce to have a pretty, be a basic understanding of this technology and especially the blockchain cuz I think it’s going to be one of those things that there is reality there and it survives the hype and is pretty interesting, track. Jason: [49:38] Totally I’m looking forward to that jump, and then I did also do a bonus and I arguably we have the same bonus prediction so I tried not to overlap with you on any of the, irregular predictions but I’m I feel like I’m comfortable space on the bonus I wisely decided to make my version slightly broader than yours so I have a better chance of being right, I think we see Amazon watch some kind of wearable in 2018 and so the earbuds is a, total good guess but some other kind of wearable speaker like I think some way to take the the, Alexa technology with you is is something that Amazon’s going to figure out how to offer in 2018. Scot: [50:28] Cool I hope you’re right and I hope it’s your butts. Jason: [50:31] Yeah we should have to see that is the beauty TuneIn the episode 211. [50:40] Scot that is all the time we allotted for tonight show or trying to get the shows a little shorter in 2018 so I predict were only moderately successful. But I super appreciate everyone listening we will put all these predictions in the show notes so that they’re there memorialized and you can make fun of acid their dramatically wrong at the end of 2018. If you have any thoughts about any of these predictions well for you to jump on Facebook and share your thoughts and if you enjoy their our show and enjoy this episode we certainly appreciate that five star review. On iTunes. Scot: [51:18] Thanks everyone for joining us have a great 2018. Jason: [51:22] And until next time happy commercing.
Rank #1: #130: 3 elements for creating extraordinary retail experiences. Jeffrey Rayport, Faculty at the Entrepreneurial Management Unit at Harvard Business School sees established legacy retailers being “attacked” from three different avenues and suggests three elements that can help them adapt: data analytics, digital marketing and creating customer experiences. Find out more about each, plus learn more about NRF NXT, our newest event. Learn more at retailgetsreal.com.
Rank #2: #131: How Lilly Pulitzer stays fresh for a new generation. A piece of Lilly Pulitzer apparel is immediately recognizable; its vibrant prints and inimitable energy have been delighting customers for 60 years. President Michelle Kelly joins this episode of Retail Gets Real to talk about how the iconic Florida brand stays relevant and uses “the love of Lilly” to bring people together. Learn more at retailgetsreal.com.
Rank #1: Just Enough: A Conversation with SVP Dave Marcotte on Blockchain. In this installment of Retail Sound Bites, the next in the “Just Enough” series, in which Kantar Consulting's Chief Knowledge Officer Bryan Gildenberg speaks with Kantar Consulting SVP Dave Marcotte about key topics in the retail ecosystem… In this episode, Blockchain.
Rank #2: Key Trends and Predictions for 2018 - January 2018.
Rank #1: Retail Nightmares Episode 214 - Cynara Geissler!. Extremely funny writer and performer Cynara Geissler returns to the podcast to discuss thinking about beans, cool Winnipeg girls and popcorn karma.
Rank #2: Retail Nightmares Episode 200 - Stop Podcasting Yourself!. The co-ghost celebrate their 200th episode spooktaular with the hosts of Stop Podcasting Yourself - Graham Clark and Dave Shumka!
Rank #1: Retail's Most Important Metric. In this episode Doug argues that the most important metric in retail is something that most retailers aren't even measuring.
Rank #2: The Future of Luxury is Freedom. For centuries luxury brands appealed to our sense of status to sell their goods. But for a new generation of western consumers, the notion of what defines status is changing. The question is can luxury brands change with it.
Rank #1: The Attention Economy. When brands like Outdoor Voices launch a new content platform it gets us thinking about retail-brands-turned-content-creators and begs the question: who is the winner in the attention economy? Do brands have what it takes to create engaging and timely content? Listen now! Main Takeaways: In today's brand economy, everyone is expected to be a storyteller and have content play a large part in their retail strategy. Brian and Phillip use their own experience as a guide and describe the qualities it takes to be a successful content creator. In some cases, content is dictating how product is being created so brands that master their content game are becoming majorly successful. Strategy is an integral part of achieving your goals and it takes a specific skillset to combine strategy with brand development. The State of Content: Everyone Has to Be a Storyteller: Outdoor Voices is launching a storytelling marketing platform called The Recreationalist that is positioned around showcasing the fun in outdoor activities as opposed to most outdoor brands that focus on performance. Brian states that we are at the peak content level period where every brand needs to be a storyteller and everything is content. The way we are consuming content has changed dramatically in the past ten years and we are more willing to put our focus on content that is current and innovative. Creating content consistently is a large commitment that extends past just being employed at a company. The Lasting Content Creator: Avoiding Creative Burnout in A Demanding Climate: Given their standing as "authorities" on the subject, Brian and Phillip describe the perfect combination of qualities that allows someone to be a consistent content creator. (Strangely it sounds like they're reading their own biographies. Imagine that.) You can't have a strategy without a goal, and everyone on your team should know what that strategy is and have a clear direction on how to achieve it. Creating content in a particular media takes a different skill set that might sometimes conflict with your ability to be a successful retailer. If you're going to get into the content game, get in with both feet and don't just try to do it halfway. The Shifting Tide: Content is King: In the attention economy, most brands are competing for the same groups of content consumers so these brands must stand out from their competitors. Brian recently heard a VP of Product at a large furniture retailer say that it's better to create content, see how that content performs, and then create a product that fits that content. "People want to quantify that you're spending has a direct return but when you're creating content, what you're spending on is brand." Aggregating the listeners or consumers of your content is a challenge because they are coming from such disparate places across all channels. What's On the Horizon?: A Sneak Peek at the Future of Future Commerce: Phillip is excited to announce that Gladly is now a sponsor of the show and to check out last week's episode with Charlie Cole and Joseph Ansanelli. (Welcome to the family!) In the most recent issue of Chips + Dips, aperitif culture was examined and Phillip suggests that Future Commerce could be your retail aperitif. (That was a stretch...) Brian thinks that the world is ready for a canned Gin & Tonic and has an entire five-year strategy for this plan. (Well this episode derailed fast.) Phillip teases that Ishani Gujral from Madrona Venture Labs will be making an appearance on the show soon to talk about how they approach ideation and how they help founders launch new companies. Brands Mentioned in this Episode: Outdoor Voices Gladly Madrona Venture Labs As always: We want to hear what our listeners think! How can you use content to identify a trajectory for your message and brand? Is outsourcing a content creator a good expenditure of funds? Let us know in the content section on Futurecommerce.fm, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or Linkedin. Have any questions or comments about the show? You can reach out to us at firstname.lastname@example.org or any of our social channels; we love hearing from our listeners! Retail Tech is moving fast, but Future Commerce is moving faster.
Rank #2: "Deliciously Sinful" - Brand Sustainability in the Age of Impulse Luxury (w/ Ingrid Milman). Ingrid Milman (Ann Taylor, LOFT) sits in this week in our Earth Week deep-dive to discuss sustainability, transparency in supply chain, and "deliciously sinful" luxury impulse buys. Who has the true influence on the eco-conscious purchase decision - the brand or the consumer? How can fashion lead the conversation in transparent supply chain and manufacturing processes? Featured brands this week: Outdoor Voices, Rent the Runway, Reformation, H&M, Allbirds and more. Listen now! Show Notes: Main Takeaways: Director of Digital at Ann Inc, Ingrid Millman, is co-hosting this week. Earth Day has turned into Earth Week and, there are lots of sustainability stories to share. Can rental Services like Rent the Runway find a way to make dry-cleaning more eco-friendly? Instagram ads somehow turned Phillip into a sneakerhead. Earth Day Becomes Earth Week: Capitalizing on Saving The Planet: Before we get into Earth Day, Ann Inc has a new rewards program, and for the first time, customers receive rewards for spending across the entire portfolio. Also, Ingrid's professional views expressed on FC do not reflect those of her employer. Anyways, Rent the Runway used Earth Day 2019 to publish its sustainability report on Twitter, showing how RTR as a service is helping to reduce waste. Ingrid loves Rent the Runway, and has been a long time subscriber, even pre-unlimited, but feels that if RTR wants to be genuinely sustainable, the company will need to look into more eco-friendly dry cleaning options. Phillip says that RTR is the Uber of dry cleaning, they partner with local dry cleaners to get all of the clothes dry cleaned consistently. Phillip points out that three years ago, Rent the Runway would have gone to IPO. Everything is Re-sellable in 2019: People Are DIYing Marie Condo: Ingrid is obsessed with the Marie Condo effect and the results from its popularity. There's been a surge in the number of people utilizing both physical thrift stores, and online platforms like Poshmark, thredUP, and luxury re-sell platforms like The RealReal. Ingrid points out that there needs to be a change to the way these resell platforms operate: namely that there needs to be more of a focus on creating solutions for their customers. As of now, there's not a lot of value proposition outside of general resell. Phillip doesn't know if he trusts the resale market, and questions if perhaps if companies are posing as third-party sellers. Phillip also blames Instagram for turning him into a sneakerhead, because Instagram forces him to buy an insane amount of sneakers through their targeted advertising. Has retail followed more of a meme culture than an influencer culture? Ingrid makes a fascinating point: Many people develop their actual sense of style in High School and/or college, but they cannot usually afford to outfit that style entirely, but people in their 30's are targeted by luxury brands more because they have a wholly different purchasing power, and now can make "deliciously sinful" luxury purchases. Sustainability as a Search Term: Will Legacy Brands Adapt? Ingrid has noticed a trend with Google search terms, including sustainability, cotton fiber, dress garments, and for some reason the brand Free People. Phillip poses a question regarding sustainability: Do consumers care about sustainability because of the PR push that the brands they trust are putting out? Or are brands increasing their PR around sustainability because they know their customer care about it? Ingrid makes a great point that GenX and anyone near that age group cares less about sustainability because it's not on their radar, as opposed to millennials (and anyone under 35), who may make sustainability a key focus of their purchasing choices. If legacy brands want to pick up a younger customer, then they are going to have to put a much larger focus on sustainability efforts. This is especially true considering how many younger brands are beginning their brands with eco-friendly products like Allbirds. Earthday 2019: Brands Are Stepping up Sustainable Efforts: So in honor of Earth Week, Ingrid and Phillip are sharing some brands that are truly pushing sustainability. One such brand is The Reformation, who has a seriously sustainable slogan: "Being naked is the #1 most sustainable option. We're #2", which is pretty freaking awesome. Another thing to love about this brand is their transparency: They list all of their sustainability practices on their website including energy efficiency, recycling, and more, and they also list the sustainability sequence on each project page. H&M has also announced transparency in supply chain initiative, which promises full transparency in supplier names, location, etc. Another brand that has stood out in their efforts is Outdoor Voices, an apparel tech company that Phillip says makes "everyone feel like they're invited to the party. Outdoor Voices uses sustainable fabrics in their products, like merino wool, and rec poly made from upcycled post-consumer water bottles. Also: In our bonus episode for Earthday, Phillip talked about Allbirds instituting a carbon tax on themselves to offset emissions and make the already eco-friendly brand 100% carbon neutral. Ingrid poses one final food for thought question: A movement that runs parallel to the transparency in clothing push is the organic food movement. So why is the transparency in clothing movement moving into the mainstream at a much faster pace? Go over to Futurecommerce.fm and give us your feedback, or you can reach out on Instagram, Twitter, or any of our social channels. We love hearing from our listeners and hearing your thoughts on current trends in retail. And you can reach out to Ingrid on Instagram at → ing_stagram Retail Tech is moving fast and Future Commerce is moving faster.
Rank #1: Currys PC World on in-store gaming - Retail Ramble from Essential Retail - Episode 71. Essential Retail sits down with Currys PC World prior to the launch event for its in-store gaming suites. We learn why the retailer is dedicating so much square footage to gaming and what the space could be used for going forward. Got something you want to tell us about the Podcast? Want to join us? You can get in touch on Twitter via twitter.com/essretail, or directly with Caroline at twitter.com/cl_baldwin
Rank #2: Vineyard Vines on unifiying customer data - Retail Ramble from Essential Retail - Episode 95. Essential Retail chats to US fashion retailer, Vineyard Vines, about business analytics and the power of harnessing customer data.Got something you want to tell us about the Podcast? Want to join us? You can get in touch on Twitter via twitter.com/essretail, or directly with Caroline at twitter.com/cl_baldwin
Rank #1: Retail Survival 2017 - Passion - People - Profit. Hop in, buckle up and hang on. Geoff Mintenko is back in the studio. Paying it forward by saying forward! What does it take to keep your brick and mortar profitable in these times of rapid change? Listen up and absorb some takeaways that may help you stay in the race.
Rank #2: Episode 12 - Ten Things I Rate About You. Not to be confused with the 1999 movie 10 Things I Hate About you - I love all you fabulous retailers! Today's leading companies are filled with visionaries, dreamers and inspirational change agents, just like you! I'm frequently asked about the most important things to be aware of as a retailer, when looking to grow and prosper in todays business climate. Find enclosed 10 things, I would rate about you and your business to help you on your profitable and enjoyable retailing journey. Hopefully you will find some karmic wisdom in this radio show as many of you found in the movie! (I know many of you watched it)Hop in. buckle up and hang on your Retail Evolution Retail Radio Ride is about to blast off!
Rank #1: 150: Content marketing with Jacqueline Parisi of Hello Fresh - we dive into blogs, quizzes, & KPIs. Jacqueline Parisi is a Copywriter at the American arm of meal kit company Hello Fresh. One of her core responsibilities is to write and post 3 blogs a week – including getting them ready AND tracking the KPIs (that’s key performance indicators / results), as well as email copy, product copy and more. She also works with the American and global teams on a range of other written content. Including developing the official editorial style guide for the USA team, to ensure consistent brand messaging, voice, and tone across both marketing and products. Phew! We have serious expert with us today!
Rank #2: 191 What is the most important thing we learnt in eCommerce in 2018?. We're finishing the year with our regular round up of expert opinions. Each have been asked "What is the most important thing we learnt in eCommerce in 2018?". We're joined by Alex O'Byrne of Wemakewebsites, Salena Knight of The Bringing Business To Retail Show, Chris Dawson from Tamebay, and Justin King of B2X Partners. You'll also hear the thoughts of our host Chloe Thomas. We cover a LOT of topics in this show including marketplaces, B2B on Amazon, email marketing, advertising and ppc, and much more.
Rank #1: World Retail Congress: Day 1. The Retail Exchange visits Amsterdam for this year’s World Retail Congress, as international retail leaders arrived in the Dutch capital for the three-day event, eager to explore the theme of this year’s event, “High Velocity Retail”. Taking place amid an atmosphere of optimism, the Congress continues to be the leading light in the industry calendar. As the first day came to an end, we caught up with attendees to get their thoughts on the key take-outs and themes dominating presentations and discussions.
Rank #2: Jason Heward, Leica Camera. Leica has been a visionary presence in the photographic field for more than 100 years. In this edition of ‘The Interview’, business broadcaster Ben Bland sits down with Jason Heward, UK managing director of Leica Camera. He talks about the passion that exists within Leica (and himself) for photography, the brand’s recently opened new London flagship store, and its focus on using ‘experience’ to connect with customers. Featuring in-depth conversations with leading figures from the world of retail, this is The Retail Exchange’s informed interview series. Hear from the finest minds and inspiring thinkers as they share insights into delivering success and get to the heart of the industry’s big issues.
Rank #1: Pressed Juice: How Glossy found its lens on fashion and business . The Guest: Glossy Edited by George Drake, Jr. Music by Lucas Brahme — About Loose Threads — Subscribe to our weekly newsletter for the latest analysis and podcasts: http://eepurl.com/buLQY9 Twitter Full Transcript Pressed Juice, a podcast by Loose Threads, talks with the journalists and PR leaders navigating this fast-changing industry about what warrants coverage today, how the media goes about covering it, and how both journalists and PR professionals define their relationship with brands throughout the process. Hosted by Richie Siegel, the founder of Loose Threads, our guests illuminate why the press is still crucial for growth and legitimacy today. You can listen to the podcast on any player of your choice, in addition to on LooseThreads.com.
Rank #2: Bootstrapped — with Paul Hedrick of Tecovas. The Guest: Tecovas Edited by George Drake, Jr. Music by Lucas Brahme — About Loose Threads — Subscribe to our weekly newsletter for the latest analysis and podcasts: http://eepurl.com/buLQY9 Twitter Full Transcript The Loose Threads Podcast explores the intersection of consumer, retail and commerce. Hosted by Richie Siegel, the founder of Loose Threads, each episode features an in-depth conversation with one guest about their founding story and how it fits into the current state of the industry. Guests come from all different backgrounds, spanning the consumer goods, fashion, retail and technology industries. The unifying thread is always the rapid change facing the industry and how entrepreneurs are responding. You can listen to the podcast on any player of your choice, in addition to on LooseThreads.com.
Rank #1: Thomas Keller. Chef and restaurateur Thomas Keller bought the French Laundry, a restaurant in Napa Valley California, and turned it into one of the leading fine dining establishments in the world. The French Laundry and Per Se, located in the Time Warner Center in New York City, have both been awarded three Michelin Stars. Thomas has won consecutive “Best Chef” awards from the James Beard Foundation and “Chef of the Year” award by the Culinary Institute of America, among other accolades. He is the author of multiple cookbooks, including The French Laundry, Bouchon, Under Pressure, and Ad Hoc at Home. Thomas speaks with Jessica Harris about how he launched his collection of restaurants, from scratch. Listen to the interview
Rank #2: Emily Weiss. Glossier is an online beauty company that launched on Instagram in 2014. Emily is also the founder of Into the Gloss, an online community dedicated to beauty. Visitors get tips on skin, hair, makeup, and learn the beauty routines of leading members of the cosmetic and fashion industries. Emily speaks with Jessica Harris about how she launched her beauty blog and skin products company, from scratch. Listen to the interview
Rank #1: 10 bold retail predictions for 2018. On the show, retail futurist Doug Stephens envisions a year flush with acquisitions, innovations and reinvention for retail.
Rank #2: The year of retail bankruptcies. Bankruptcies are a hot topic in retail, spawning a slew of hyperbolic headlines about the "retail apocalypse." On the show, the Retail Dive team breaks down why the industry is reporting a record number of bankruptcies and what retailers need to do to successfully restructure.