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Rank #35 in Investing category

Business
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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Updated 10 days ago

Rank #35 in Investing category

Business
Science & Medicine
Investing
Social Sciences
Read more

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast..

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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast..

iTunes Ratings

513 Ratings
Average Ratings
438
32
13
10
20

Outstanding

By CroLun - Feb 17 2019
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Quality of the major contribution work Michael does is outstanding.

I get so much from this podcast

By tlibs123 - Aug 15 2018
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I think Michael is an amazing interviewer and his content is A+.

iTunes Ratings

513 Ratings
Average Ratings
438
32
13
10
20

Outstanding

By CroLun - Feb 17 2019
Read more
Quality of the major contribution work Michael does is outstanding.

I get so much from this podcast

By tlibs123 - Aug 15 2018
Read more
I think Michael is an amazing interviewer and his content is A+.
Cover image of Trend Following with Michael Covel

Trend Following with Michael Covel

Updated 10 days ago

Rank #35 in Investing category

Read more

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast..

Rank #1: Ep. 620: 2018 Will Be Great with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Happy new year and please enjoy my all day 11-hour compilation covering 3 of my favorite guests. A timeless reminder to start 2018 the right way! And if you don't want to listen all the way through then enjoy my opening intro rant!

Dec 31 2017
11 hours 40 mins
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Rank #2: Ep. 464: The Next Brexit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Everyone was told to trust the system and be happy: “Save your money and interest income will be your retirement.” This has come to be completely untrue and people are collectively beginning to wise up, as seen in Brexit. Michael goes into a timeline of market crashes illustrating trend following success: 1973-1974 stocks go down 50% and trend following kills it. 1987, known as Black Market Monday, US stocks go down 20%+ in a day and trend following kills it. Barings Bank collapses spring of 1995, trend following kills it. August 1998, Long Term Capital Management craters, and trend following made a fortune. It was almost a zero sum transfer from LTCM to trend followers in August of 1998. Spring of 2000, the dot com bubble bursts and trend following cleans up again. 2002 was one of the best trend following performance years ever. After 2002 another bubble is built and when it burst in October of 2008, trend following had outstanding performance results yet again. When the majority of people think the world is ending, trend following is reaping the profits. Brexit? Yes, too. Nobody can predict the future but if you want to play the game, you have to place bets. Trend followers were in established trends once Brexit hit. They do not predict, but they have educated bets. Michael ends with one question, “What side are you going to be on? The side of the winners or the side of the losers?” It’s your choice.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Boom and busts
  • Brexit
  • Certainty in markets
Jul 04 2016
24 mins
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Rank #3: Ep. 787: Matt Kepnes Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Ten Years a Nomad is Nauthor Matt Kepnes’ poignant exploration of wanderlust and what it truly means to be a nomad. Part travel memoir and part philosophical look at why we travel, it is filled with aspirational stories of Kepnes' many adventures.

Kepnes knows what it feels like to get the travel bug. After meeting some travelers on a trip to Thailand in 2005, he realized that living life meant more than simply meeting society's traditional milestones, such as buying a car, paying a mortgage, and moving up the career ladder. Inspired by them, he set off for a year-long trip around the world before he started his career. He finally came home after ten years. Over 500,000 miles, 1,000 hostels, and 90 different countries later, Matt has compiled his favorite stories, experiences, and insights into this travel manifesto. Filled with the color and perspective that only hindsight and self-reflection can offer, these stories get to the real questions at the heart of wanderlust. Travel questions that transcend the basic "how-to," and plumb the depths of what drives us to travel ― and what extended travel around the world can teach us about life, ourselves, and our place in the world.

Ten Years a Nomad is for travel junkies, the travel-curious, and anyone interested in what you can learn about the world when you don’t have a cable bill for a decade or spend a month not wearing shoes living on the beach in Thailand.

Aug 09 2019
47 mins
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Rank #4: Ep. 563: Mark Minervini Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Mark Minervini is author of “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market” and now his newest book, “Think and Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules and Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard.” He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s “Stock Market Wizards.” This is Mark’s second appearance on the show. Nature vs. nurture or the debate of whether a person is “naturally gifted” is one of the oldest debates out there. Mark says he was an “unnatural” when it came to trading and he was actually in the negative for the first six years when he started. Why did he keep going? He had a passion for trading and a bigger vision of what he was doing. Mark knew he had all the tools to trade for profit, just not all the experience yet. He believed in what he was doing, had a passion for it, took responsibility for his flaws and put the process before the results–that is why Mark thinks he has been able to thrive over the years. “If you do not think you can perform at a certain level, you won’t be able to perform at that level” explains Mark. Trading ultimately doesn’t come down to talent, it comes down to a trader’s correct mentality. Everyone wants to win, but everyone doesn’t choose to win. Is your passion your priority? Sacrifice is essential when trying to obtain anything worthy and Mark shares some of the personal sacrifices he made to become who he is today. Next, Mark explains what is known as “the trading triangle.” Your average gain, average loss, and percentage of wins is what is known as the trading triangle. Averaging those components makes up your personal bell curve. When Mark does workshops only 8-12% of people attending have an idea of what their average gains and losses are. Michael and Mark end the podcast going over the pros and cons of diversification. Diversification is great until it turns into what Mark calls “di-worsification.” When traders and companies start to veer too far from their core values they can start to hurt themselves with diversifying. There are many benefits from diversification when done in the correct way. Good traders know when to step on the gas and have a strategy backing them up.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Process vs. outcome
  • Builder vs. wrecking ball mentality
  • Eliminating excuses
  • Neuro-linguistic programing
  • Sacrifice when obtaining a goal
  • Risk of ruin
  • The trading triangle
  • Diversification vs. Di-worsification
  • Sophistication and simplicity
Jun 16 2017
41 mins
Play

Rank #5: Ep. 758: The Foundation of Good Trading with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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The Foundation of Good Trading with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Apr 29 2019
3 hours 49 mins
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Rank #6: Ep. 476: Commandments with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael starts the podcast off with excerpts from an interview with Clint Eastwood. Clint answers the question, “What is the pussy generation?” He also goes on to give his take on what is wrong with the US presidential election, unemployment and free education. Michael sums up the interview saying, “I do love that this 86 year old tough guy is telling us…” Michael uses Eastwood to lay the foundation for the rest of the podcast as he talks about “Trend Following Commandments.” Michael goes in depth about some of these fundamental trend following principles.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Political correctness
  • Pussy generation
  • Absolute returns
  • Inefficient markets
  • Market bubbles
  • Fundamentals are religion
  • The market is never wrong
  • Cutting your losses
  • Learn to love your losses
  • Price action
  • Betting the markets properly
  • Failure is the secret to success
Aug 15 2016
30 mins
Play

Rank #7: Ep. 514: Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael has put together a compilation of past appearances aggregated into a four hour episode. Guests today include: Daniel Kahneman, Laurie Santos, Steven Kotler, Anders Ericsson, Philip Tetlock, and Colin Camerer. Daniel Kahneman has been called the most important psychologist alive today. He is the 2002 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, and is the guy behind the theories of behavioral economics and behavioral finance. Laurie Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans. Kotler is an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, etc. Anders Ericsson is a Swedish psychologist and Conradi Eminent Scholar and Professor of Psychology at Florida State University. He is internationally recognized as a researcher in the psychological nature of expertise and human performance. His new book is “Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise.” Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” is about probabilistic thinking defined. Colin Camerer is an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is the interface between cognitive psychology and economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Remembering self vs. Experiencing self
  • How the measures of happiness are being implemented into public policy
  • How failure to accept one’s losses can lead to risk-taking in trading
  • Crowd behavior relating economic bubbles
  • Why capitalism is largely driven by optimism
  • Behavioral economics affecting the trading world
  • Monkeys and humans
  • The monkey economy
  • The endowment effect
  • G.I. Joe fallacy
  • Discipline and practice
  • Solo and group practice
  • Flow state
  • Social motivation
  • The late birthday rule
  • 10,000 hours of practice
  • Nature vs. nurture
  • Brain plasticity
  • What are superforecasters?
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Looking at data
  • The basis of decision making
Dec 26 2016
4 hours 29 mins
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Rank #8: Ep. 577: Art Collins Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Art Collins is author of “Beating the Financial Futures Market: Combining Small Biases Into Powerful Money Making Strategies”, “When Supertraders Meet Kryptonite”, “Market Rap: The Odyssey of a Still-Struggling Commodity Trader” and “Market Beaters.” He has been trading systematically for the past 30 years. How was Art Collins able to get Richard Dennis, Bill Dunn, Bob Pardo, Mike Dever and Larry Williams (to name a few) to talk? He made the interviews more like a partnership, than an interview. He made an impressive name for himself which led to positive word of mouth spreading. What does robustness mean to Art? He uses four rules for prudent testing: 1. Don’t settle on your best result if it is a “diamond in the rough”. 2. Strategies should test well in various markets, particularly similar ones. 3. You don’t want your results to be bunched up in limited time frames. 4. Stay focused on testing concepts you understand in the markets. Throughout the years Art wasn’t only focused on trading markets. He also studied how to beat the blackjack table and how to skew the odds in his favor when betting on sports. Trading football lines, and trading the price of stocks – what’s the difference? There isn’t much of a difference when you take a technical and systematic approach to them. It’s about keeping emotions out of it. He never wanted to be a cowboy trader or thought of as a “genius”, he just wanted his systems to work. Michael and Art spend the rest of this episode diving into card counting, mechanical systems, gambling on football, data mining and the fools errand of making $1,000 a day.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Systems trading
  • Richard Dennis
  • Card counting
  • Mechanical systems
  • Robustness
  • Data mining
Aug 04 2017
41 mins
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Rank #9: Ep. 629: Annie Duke Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Annie Duke’s new book is, “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts.” She has taken her poker expertise and graduate level degree of psychology and digested it into a book we all can relate to our lives. She is a poker player, author, decision making expert, and cognitive scientist. Her understanding of how luck, skill and uncertainty all play a role in life is fascinating.

The foundation of decision making crosses over to all genres. She touches on football play calling, crypto currency, and everything in between. In Annie’s book she breaks down “the worst football play in Super Bowl history”, relating to Pete Carol. She proves that it was actually the right call in terms of probabilities and mathematics, Carroll was just unlucky. Carroll is on record admitting that it was the worst result of a call in Super Bowl history, but not the worst call.

Under a stressful situation, like the Super Bowl, would you be able to make the right call? How good are you about checking your beliefs and keeping your bets in line? Are your decisions and outcomes lucky? Smart? Skilled? Very few outcomes are solely skill or solely luck. Phil Ivey, arguably the best poker player in the world, sorts out what was luck and what was skill after every win or loss he may have in a poker tournament.

Learning occurs best when there are lots of decisions to be made in a compressed amount of time paired with lots of feedback to those decisions. Annie first studied this in young children learning to listen, speak, and digest words and quickly saw this study directly relate to the poker table. How do you learn when there is a lot of noisy feedback? Having limited resources, how do you use those resources to make educated bets?

Life is a series of bets that compound on themselves. Annie makes the point that, “I’m not sure” is the best answer in many situations – and there is nothing wrong with that. Coming from a place of uncertainty helps to make more rational decisions. When that decision doesn’t turn out well, you can then analyze how you can improve that action going forward.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Crypto currency bubble
  • Decision making
  • Game theory
  • Decision making groups
  • Noisy feedback
  • Decisions in uncertainty
Feb 02 2018
1 hour 24 mins
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Rank #10: Ep. 487: Robert Cialdini Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Robert Cialdini is on today’s podcast. He is best known for writing “Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion” published back in 1984. Robert is the “go to man” for understanding effective persuasion. Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking and scarcity are his six key principles of influence that he teaches. His new book, “Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade”, introduces a seventh key principle of influence. Michael asks “How did you start down this path? What was your ‘A-ha’ moment that got you researching for this new book?” Robert says it was a series of recognitions as he was reading the newest work in behavioral studies that made him realize that creating mindsets in people didn’t involve just six principles. He went back to his notes and looked at what the top people in various professions were doing. He realized that they were acting like gardeners. They were preparing the earth before planting the seed. These professionals were priming a persons mind to perceive their idea more fully. Next, Michael and Robert talk about anchoring a persons perception of what they are paying or asking for. You start off with a higher number or a grander request before hitting the other person with what you really want. “Are there types of thinkers where pre-suasion is not as effective? Or have you found universally across the populations that pre-suasion is just very effective?” Robert says it seems to be a universal operating procedure that is built into us from birth. He uses a study done with 18 month old babies that proves that this is built into our psyche. Lastly, Michael asks Robert to elaborate on the idea of unity. Robert shares a story of Warren Buffett and unity taken from his book. Michael finishes up the last 20 minutes of the podcast with a presentation on behavior change and the part that social norms play in creating that change, given by Robert. He focuses on how to make people move more towards a environmentally socially responsible role.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Establishing trust before asking for anything
  • Rational self interest
  • Anchoring a persons perception
  • Asking for advice rather than an opinion
  • Warren Buffett’s shareholder letter
  • Environmental responsibility
Sep 23 2016
49 mins
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Rank #11: Ep. 467: David Burkus Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael and David Burkus start off talking about Fredrick Winslow Taylor. Fredrick’s claim to fame is discovering that it isn’t about innovating a product, but rather about innovating the factory. He looked into factory processes and what it took to make a product most effectively. The downside of his work was that he believed management should be operated scientifically as well. He thought that management was smart and factory workers were dumb. His values helped people focus on how to make a product most efficiently not how to make people sustainable, prolific and healthy. He took a lot of the emotion out of it. Most of his work has shifted from the United States and moved to other more factory driven places such as China. The new form of work that we are seeing in most countries is creative work. Employees are required to make decisions or make collective designs with people in their company. Michael asks, “Isn’t this about making employees feel like entrepreneurs in their company or organization?” David uses tech start-ups as examples; Even as they get big they aim to make their companies continue to feel like a start-up and train their employees to think like solo entrepreneurs. This is how trust and intellect gets built within a company. Next, Michael and David discuss the effectiveness of email. Pros: The cost of email is cheap and you can respond on your own schedule. Cons: Constant text and emails have diverted focus and created too much distraction. David stresses that there is no such thing as “multitasking”, there is only task switching. Some studies say it could take up to 15 minutes to get back to the focus you were at before you were interrupted. Michael and David move the discussion back to the importance of keeping your employees happy. Having outstanding customer satisfaction comes down to putting employees first. Sometimes that means siding with your employees over your customers. You need to be able to tell some customers that your company or product simply may not be right for them. Also, creating the right work environment is key. Open work environments as opposed to more closed work environments have been becoming the norm. In an open office environment the idea is that working together is easy and creates a better collaborative environment. However there are negative effects such as increased sick days (perhaps because they do not want to see certain co-workers) and more distraction. Michael and David finish talking about non-compete clauses and the counter productiveness of them. There is a difference between a non-compete and a non-disclosure. Apple and Google have two totally different views on this. Google is 100% fluid and open. Apple is very closed off and believes in the non-compete clause. When people migrate from one company to another, it has been shown in studies that both companies actually win from the intellectual knowledge transferred and gained from each other. Non-compete environments benefit everyone in the long term. Also, on a societal level you can see a huge benefit when non-competes are not allowed.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Re-designing the factory
  • Physical labor vs. Intellectual labor
  • Machines vs. Man
  • Multitasking = Task switching
  • “The customer is always right” mentality
  • Confirmation bias
  • Introverts and extroverts
  • Customer service
  • Non-compete clauses
Jul 15 2016
45 mins
Play

Rank #12: Ep. 598: Trading Legends Epic Episode on Trend Following Radio

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Today’s combo episode consists of four classic episodes aggregated into one big modern podcast. Jack Schwager, Peter Brandt, Larry Williams and Toby Crabel are four pro traders who hopefully give every listener an aha moment.

Jack Schwager is author of the Market Wizards series and just completed his second edition of A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Trading, Spreads, and Options.

Peter Brandt is author of Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading, and a trader who has been in the commodity trading space since 1976. He has traded his own proprietary account from the late 1970’s until today, and is currently entering the hedge fund world by running a multi-CTA fund-of-funds.

Larry Williams is the author of eleven books, most on stocks and commodity trading. He is also a stock and commodity trader, and politician. He has been in the trading game for over four decades and his name is well known in all trading circles.

Toby Crabel is founder of Crabel Capital Management. Toby is a short term systematic trader which is a much different trading style than trend following. Toby is also a former pro tennis player and has a philosophical nature in discussing the trading world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamentals vs. Technical analysis
  • Risk management
  • Contrarian view on fundamentals
  • Charting
  • Science vs. art in trading
  • Whipsaws
  • Exploiting trends
  • Sharpe ratio
  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Five minute chart patterns vs. a weekly chart patterns
  • Mistakes as a novice trader
  • Averaging losers
  • Risk management
  • Upside volatility
  • Reducing incessant head chatter
  • Living in the moment of now.
  • Price movement and volume Price shocks Diversification Objectivism
Oct 16 2017
3 hours 45 mins
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Rank #13: Ep. 705: Howard Marks Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Howard Marks is an investor, writer and author of “Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.” After working in senior positions at Citibank early in his career, Howard joined The TCW Group, Inc. in 1985. He led groups within the company responsible for investments in distressed debt, high yield bonds, and convertible securities. After 10 years at The TCW Group, Inc. he co-founded Oaktree Capital Management.

Howard got into high yield bonds in August of 1978. This was a turning point in financial history because up until this moment only good companies could borrow money. High yield bonds opened the market to more risky companies and also showed Howard a different way of looking at markets. The first company he worked for had a strategy of buying stock in the 50 most successful companies in hopes they would continue to go up forever. With the advent of the high yield market he saw himself making good and steady money off of the worst/most risky companies–turning everything he had been previously been taught upside down.

Howard has lived through over 50 years of financial history and with his new book he has gone back hundreds of years to examine and study cycles. So how does Howard define a cycle? There are many different cycles–cycles in science, speed, people inhabited, etc. Cycles in the financial world are produced by people and are created by their feelings. The cycle represents a fluctuation in something around a mid-point, but time-frames and reasons for fluctuations do not repeat themselves–except for in human behavior. Looking back hundreds of years there are a few things that are underlying in every financial boom–too much optimism, too much money chasing, and too much risk aversion.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

High yield bonds Financial cycles Sub prime bubble Dot-com crash Continued learning by reading Risk management Decision making

Oct 26 2018
44 mins
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Rank #14: Ep. 674: Trend Following Mega Fifth Edition with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael plays three epic interviews with Ed Seykota, Martin Lueck and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud profiled in chapter’s 12, 13 and 14 of his newest edition of Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets.

Ed Seykota was originally profiled in the classic book “The Market Wizards.” Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years.

Martin Lueck holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University and currently is the Research Director and President of Aspect Capital. Lueck was originally with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded with Michael Adam and David Harding.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Govopoly Systems trading Diversification Behavioral economics Death of trend following Exploiting vs. exploring Behavioral biases Risk

Jul 09 2018
1 hour 28 mins
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Rank #15: Ep. 677: Mark Blyth Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Mark Blyth is a political scientist from Scotland and a professor of international political economy at Brown University.

What influenced Mark early on? John Maynard Keynes was his foundation. He also was growing up through the permanent recessions of the 1980’s and learning first hand about pitfalls in the economy. He quickly saw how the macro economy was so much different than the micro and how studying the economy as a whole was more important than just looking at the individual.

Mark called the Donald Trump win for Presidency in June of 2016. Why? Trump was willing to acknowledge there was a problem. He was dramatically different and played to the individual rather than big business. In 2015 Wall Street bonuses were twice the amount of the total wages of people earning minimum wage. Since that 2015 statistic, the inequality has only gotten greater. Trump gave people hope that things can change – that he could change them.

What are some macro steps that can get the U.S. economy heading in the right direction today? Dissolve monopolies and raise corporate taxes creating long-term productivity gains. Because of tax ride-offs a monopolized economy has been created. The government has allowed and engineered large businesses to run America and it’s time to re-arrange the model. Another problem? Americans have become dependent on passive investing and don’t know what to do when volatility happens. They have become blind to risk, due to lack of volatility for the last 10 years. Michael and Mark end on the question: “Can the economy sustain the next 10 years like this?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trump campaign Raising interest rates Tax cuts Infrastructure General data protection regulation Black swans Passive investing Efficient market hypothesis

Jul 20 2018
46 mins
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Rank #16: Ep. 786: Talent Is the Scarce Resource with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Talent Is the Scarce Resource with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Aug 05 2019
23 mins
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Rank #17: Ep. 667: Timur Kuran Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Timur Kuran is an economist, professor of economics and political Science, Gorter Family Professor in Islamic Studies at Duke University and author of “Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification.” His work spans economics, political science, history, and legal studies.

Timur is responsible for coining the term “preference falsification.” So what is preference falsification? It is the act of misrepresenting ones wants because of social pressures. There is a movement going through colleges where students feel they are being suppressed. They don’t feel they can express themselves because of fear they may be called a racist, sexist, etc. Despite America being seen as a country of freedom and self-expression, 90% of students feel they cannot speak freely or engage with professors and other students in lively debate.

What was the a-ha trigger moment that pushed Timur toward working on preference falsification? It happened while he was a PhD student studying economics. While learning about different theories, he looked around the classroom and knew not all of the students agreed or accepted the theories being taught. He felt uncomfortable himself challenging his professor and knew there was more to how he was feeling and how his classmates seemingly felt. This stayed in the back of his mind throughout his PhD program and he decided that after graduation he would start working on his new theory.

Timur uses the 2016 U.S. election between Clinton and Trump as an example of preference falsification. Trump showed he wasn’t afraid to take on the establishment, no matter how high up they may be. He challenged the media, a war hero, and other politicians and made them look like victimizers. Trump understood “the thinkable” and “the unthinkable.” By tapping into unthinkable thoughts that had never been articulated by other politicians, Trump gave hope to millions of people who otherwise may have discounted him. Timur also uses the 2011 Egyptian uprising as well as the caste system in India as other examples.

Jun 15 2018
57 mins
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Rank #18: Ep. 450: Making Money Every Month Is Fantasy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off reading a listener email from someone interested in making 3-4% every month with only 15% drawdowns. Michael gives his personal feedback as well as responses from Facebook after posting the email. The responses were mixed. Some people fully believed these kinds of returns are possible, while Michael and others said that if anyone is telling you they can produce 3-4% returns every month then it is absolutely a scam. Only Long Term Capital Management, Bernie Madoff, and some high frequency traders with insider trading access can tout such returns. Michael finishes the podcast talking about the upcoming American elections. What is the alternative to Trump and Sanders? Hilary Clinton? Michael says that everything is an act with Clinton and that she’s a bona fide…[fill in the blank].

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Long Term Capital Management
  • Bernie Madoff
  • Leverage
  • Diversification
  • Indian Stock Market
May 16 2016
26 mins
Play

Rank #19: Ep. 472: Silence with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Today, Michael dives into silence. An excerpt from Daniel Gross: “In the mid 20th century, epidemiologists discovered correlations between high blood pressure and chronic noise sources like highways and airports. Later research seemed to link noise to increased rates of sleep loss, heart disease, and tinnitus. (It’s this line of research that hatched the 1960s-era notion of “noise pollution,” a name that implicitly refashions transitory noises as toxic and long-lasting.)” “Silence” science is leading the way with awesome new insights: “The growth of new cells in the brain doesn’t always have health benefits. But in this case, cells [generated from silence] seemed to become functioning neurons. “We saw that silence is really helping the new generated cells to differentiate into neurons, and integrate into the system.” Michael weaves this narrative right back into his wheelhouse: day trading v. trend following. Lessons for traders, lessons for life. Enjoy the silence!

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Peace and quiet is all about the noise in your head.
  • Correlations between high blood pressure and chronic noise sources.
  • Possible therapeutic uses for silence.
  • Trend following.
Aug 01 2016
25 mins
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Rank #20: Ep. 639: Martin Bergin and James Dailey Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Martin “Marty” Bergin and James Dailey are on the podcast today. Bergin is the President and owner of DUNN Capital Management. He began working with DUNN in 1997 and took over the day-to-day operations of the firm in 2007. He became owner in 2015 (Bill Dunn remains Chairman). James Dailey became CEO of Dunn Capital in March 2016. DUNN has a track record that spans over 40 years.

Today’s podcast was recorded the week after the February 2018 volatility. Inevitably, when there is volatility in markets, machines are blamed. DUNN Capital is a trend following trading firm who uses computers for everything they do. They know fintech well. That said, there is a difference between DUNN Capital and “the machine” traders.

DUNN Capital trades from a higher volatility perspective and it has worked out well for them. They don’t charge management fees, but rather are completely incentive fee based. Further, at DUNN Capital they don’t reduce volatility for the sake of possibly reducing bad events–they still want strong profits and that is the only way they make money. Unfortunately, investors always remember drawdowns and they do try to minimize those without compromising their core system.

Finally, and this a surprise for many, DUNN Capital’s office is quiet and not very exciting. Trend following after all is about discipline and blocking out all of the media noise and information. DUNN’s investors get that. DUNN is managing money for the long term, not short term. Their trend following is geared toward data and everything in their research shows that long term trend following trading is their best opportunity.

Mar 09 2018
50 mins
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