Rank #1: Surveillance: Lyft Investors Are Paying For Future, Segram Says
Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School Finance Professor, talks bank mergers and the benefits of being "too big to fail." Haran Segram, NYU Leonard N. Stern School of Business Professor, says Lyft investors are paying for the future instead of the current state of affairs of the company. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, talks about the latest developments in the Boeing investigation. Sridhar Natarajan, Bloomberg Wall Street Reporter, discusses the alleged involvement of the hedge fund Chatham Asset Management in the investigation into President Trump.
Rank #2: Surveillance: Progressive Capitalism With Joseph Stiglitz
Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed is absolutely on hold. Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate and Author of "People, Power and Profits," says the government has a role in progressive capitalism. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says it's not all sunshine and roses in corporate earnings. Paul Sankey, Mizuho Securities Oil & Gas Analyst and Managing Director, offers his insights on Occidental's purchase of Anadarko. Paul Smith, CFA Institute President & CEO, says we need to reattach finance to a sense of purpose.
Rank #3: Surveillance: The U.S. Economy Is Strong, Rupkey Says
Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, says the U.S. economy is strong. Todd Mariano, Eurasia Group U.S. Director, discusses next steps in the Mueller investigation. Liz Young, BNY Mellon Investment Management Director of Market Strategy, expects earnings and U.S. growth to be heavier in the end of the year. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, argues that in labor force terms, unemployment claims are at all time lows.
Rank #4: Surveillance: We Are Near The End Of The Cycle, Ruskin Says
Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Securities Managing Director & Chief International Strategist, says market participants seem to expect volatility to be sticky for a while. Luke Kawa, Bloomberg Cross-Asset Reporter, says markets are pricing in some kind of inflection point for the Fed over the next two years. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, defines the current situation of the U.K. as one of "chaos" and "rage". Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder, explains that technology is a deflationary force. Baroness Helena Kennedy, House of Lords Member, remarks that the Irish border question was not in the mind of the voters when the Brexit referendum took place.
Rank #5: Models Don't Work in Crisis, says Spence.
Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate & NYU Professor of Economics & Business, says models don't work in crisis, but experience does. David Riley, Bluebay Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says the resurgence in the U.S. dollar is the pain trade for markets. Jane Foley, Rabobank Senior FX Strategist, thinks the consensus short dollar position for 2018 is capitulating. Miranda Carr, Haitong International Executive Director of Equity Research, says China cannot rely on U.S. Technology in the long term. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Television & Radio Chief Washington Correspondent, finds its hard to say that these congressional investigations aren't political at this point.
Rank #6: Globalization in the Trump Era with Dr. Posen
Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says 3% growth is not sustainable. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says a lack of budget discipline is considered to be negative for a currency. Michael Holland, Holland & Co. Chairman and Founder, says the best time to sell is when the markets are enthusiastic. Vanessa Friedman, New York Times Fashion Director & Chief Fashion Critic, and Robert Burke, Robert Burke Associates Chairman & CEO, review New York Fashion Week and the state of luxury retail.
Rank #7: Surveillance Special: Fed Speak in Jackson Hole
We bring you a Bloomberg Surveillance Special from the Grand Tetons in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics & Policy Correspondent, interviews three Fed Presidents at the annual Economic Symposium. James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President, says the Fed is very close to neutral rates. On the contrary, Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President, says gradual interest-rate increases should continue. Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President, agrees with Mester, he encourages the Fed 'to keep moving.' And we include final perspective from Frederic Mishkin, a former member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Rank #8: Most Americans Will Get Tax Cuts, Lieber Says
Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, likes the upward movement in yields but he doesn't trust it. Jon Lieber, PwC Washington National Tax Services Principal, doesn't think the Democrats will score points going after the deficit. David Miliband, International Rescue Committee President & CEO, says one of the phenomenons of globalization is people urbanizing, including refugees. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research LLC President & Founder, says the benefit of bitcoin right now is that it only has buyers.
Rank #9: Trade Wars Not the Biggest 2018 Risk, Purves Says
Michael Purves, Weeden & Co. Chief Global Strategist & Head of Equity Derivatives, says you can't be dismissive of higher interest rates in the volatility story. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Senior VP & Policy Analyst, has noticed a lot of empty offices in D.C. government agencies. Steve Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities Chief U.S. Economist, joins us to wrap sound from our interview with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and discuss eco data. Jonathan Ferziger, Bloomberg Middle East Politics Reporter, reports from Israel on the the U.S. Embassy move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Rank #10: Fed Sent a Powerful Signal on Friday, Wessel Says
Chris Verrone, Strategas Research Partners Head of Technical Analysis, and Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Gadfly Columnist, take a close look at the market selloff. David Wessel, Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy Director, imagines that Fmr. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will continue to focus on labor markets in her work at Brookings. Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Public Policy Strategist, says it's unclear what both sides are willing to accept in NAFTA negotiations to keep the trade deficit down. Margie Patel, Wells Capital Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says earnings look pretty good for the rest of the year.
Rank #11: Understand What You're Investing In, Rhodes Says
John Ryding, Founder of RDQ Economics, thinks the stimulus we're getting is pretty unprecedented. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, says we're getting a global lesson in comparative politics right now. Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Senior Economist, says to pay attention to the retail sales number. Bill Rhodes, Citigroup Former Vice Chairman, thinks some investors have gone overboard because they didn't want to be left out.
Rank #12: Surveillance: I Don't Think Inflation Is Dead, Hatzius Says
Jose Rasco, HSBC Chief Investment Strategist at HSBC Private Bank Americas, expects the Fed to remain on hold this year. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist & Head of Global Economics and Markets Research, doesn't think inflation is dead. Dan Tannebaum, PwC United States Principal and Global Sanctions Leader, thinks it's unlikely that Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, predicts negative economic growth in 2020.
Rank #13: Surveillance: Lehman Like a Greek Tragedy, Hintz Says
Brad Hintz, Former Lehman CFO & NYU Professor, says that from the 2008 financial crisis, we've learned that repo is not stable. Yousef Gamal el-Din, Bloomberg TV Daybreak Middle East Anchor, brings us an update from Turkey. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says the ECB is not grappling with outrageous inflation. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist, says for the most part, the Fed is focused on the U.S. and not EM. And Mark Lehman, JMP Securities President, thinks Apple will continue to garner attention.
Rank #14: Things Fall Apart (in the Markets), Gartman Says
James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist and International Wealth Management Division Americas CIO, thinks the market has been pricing in more policy than usual. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities and Research, says the reflation story really began in April 2016. John Hudak, Brookings Senior Fellow of Governance Studies, says a lot of government agencies have had hiring troubles. Dennis Gartman, Gartman Letter Economist, Editor & Publisher, says he's dismayed that the U.S. government can't get spending under control.
Rank #15: The U.S. Is Immune To EM To A Point, Konstam Says
Dominic Konstam, DB Securities Managing Director & Global Head of Rates Research, says the U.S. is immune to emerging markets to a point. Greg Parsons, Semper Capital Chief Executive Officer, says Special Counsel Robert Mueller is focused on getting to the truth. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments Director of Global Macro, says we're approaching late cycle but we're not there. And Elsa Lignos, RBC Capital Markets Global Head of FX Strategy, says Euro-Sterling looks fairly interesting. ------
Rank #16: Surveillance: McCain Was A Life-Long Learner, Stavridis Says
Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, says Senator John McCain was an intuitive, life-long learner. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says the S&P 500 is carrying less volatile asset classes thanks to tech companies. Fred Lane, Lane Generational of Raymond James Managing Partner, says there is an increasingly good return on investment in college education. Erin Browne, UBS Managing Director & Head of Asset Allocation, says we are back to a negative bond-stock correlation. Grant Woods, McCain's Former Chief of Staff, says the Senator stood for basic human rights.
Rank #17: Tariffs Creating 'Fortress America', Lovely Says
Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, says the new U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is a re-branding of NAFTA. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, says the current administration is creating 'Fortress America' with tariffs. David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, says underlying business conditions have been more than acceptable. And Greg Giroux, Bloomberg Government Elections Reporter, previews the midterm election primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Oklahoma today.
Rank #18: Surveillance Special: Trump's Trade Tariffs
The news flow beckoned a bonus episode! Today, Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, says once you go down the tariffs road, it gets complicated. Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Professor says trade is not about winners and losers, it's win-win. Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman Senior Vice President of New York & Head of Currency, says a trade war is not easy to win and it is not desirable. Kerry Brown, Chatham House Associate Fellow in the Asia-Pacific Programme & Professor of Chinese Studies, thinks China was expecting this.
Rank #19: Erdogan Wants His Power Entrenched, Rahman Says
Mij Rahman, Eurasia Group Europe Practice Head, says he expects Turkey's central bank to hike. Georgette Boele, ABN Amro Bank Currency and Commodity Strategist, provides an EM currency update. Stephen Gandel, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, is unsure about whether or not the SEC will prosecute Elon Musk. And Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, reminds us of the legacy of Nikola Tesla.
Rank #20: 10-Yr to Hit 3% if Inflation Surprises, says Bory
George Bory, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Credit Strategy, sees the 10-year hitting 3% if we get an inflation surprise on Wednesday. Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center Budget and Policy Administration, says that politicians just haven't been able to resist spending. Robert Shiller, Yale Professor of Economics, believes efficient markets are a half-truth. Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Economic Adviser, doesn't think the correction is enough to derail the economy.