Rank #1: Real Vision Classics #5 - Josh Wolfe interviewed by Michael Green
What will the future look like, and what will that future mean for businesses and investors? Michael Green of Thiel Macro sits down with Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital for an incredibly though-provoking conversation about technology, manufacturing, the economy, and investment opportunities. Alex Rosenberg introduces the audio version of this long piece, which was filmed in June 2018.
Rank #2: Adventures in Finance 64 - Crossing the Rubicon? The Bond Market’s Big Move
With the 10-year yield peaking above 3% this week, is the low finally in for the 10-year yield? How high is it liable to rise? How might the Fed and inflation play into this? And what could it all mean for equities? Julian Bridgen of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners joins to discuss all that and more. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade ancient appliances, Billy Bragg and middle seats.
Rank #3: Adventures in Finance 62 - Powering Down: Beginning of the End for Tesla?
Can Tesla still take over the world – or is the end nigh for the ambitious electric car company? Charley Grant of the Wall Street Journal and Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital join to discuss. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade the political circus, Twitter debates and scheming seniors.
Rank #4: Adventures in Finance 32 - Season 2 Premier: KYLE BASS
Season 2 of Adventures in Finance kicks off with Kyle Bass joining Grant for this week’s entire episode. Kyle shares some of the Defining Moments of his life and explains how they shaped him. He tells us a story of a disastrous trade gone wrong, answers listener’s questions from the Real Vision Mailbag, and explains what he’d take on a rocket ship to Mars.
Rank #5: Adventures in Finance 65 - A Revolution is underway: Stock markets, oil, bonds and Real Vision
Real Vision’s CEO and macro-economist, Raoul Pal, offers his latest thoughts on the bond market, the dollar, oil and the business cycle as well as an update on what the future holds for Real Vision. In this week’s Long Short, Raoul and Grant discuss all things swine. Log on to www.realvision.com/adventuresinfinance to find out how you can be part Real Vision’s exciting financial media revolution.
Rank #6: The Knock-On Effect #26 - Inflation, Inequality and Bitcoin
Does inflation increase or decrease wealth inequality? Alex recently got into a Twitter feud on that very subject, but guest co-host Jake Merl sets him straight. They also touch on Fed policy, the quality of government data, and the perils of replying to tweets while walking.
Rank #7: Adventures in Finance 1 - Aftermath of India Demonetization
Delving into the consequences and opportunities following the cancellation of 86% of India’s currency in circulation. Also, find out what Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and Global Macro Investors, got wrong in times of crisis & learn from his mistakes.
Rank #8: Real Vision Classics #4 - Raoul Pal interviewed by Dee Smith
Social media power, the proliferation of artificial intelligence, and the destruction of the rules-based global order. How are these massive trends connected? Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and the mind behind the Global Macro Investor, sits down with Dee Smith of Strategic Insight Group for a wide-ranging and deep-diving conversation about these topics and more. Alex Rosenberg introduces the audio version of this long piece, which was filmed in August.
Rank #9: Adventures in Finance 33 - Keys to the Kingdom: Inside the Beautiful Mind of Hugh Hendry
Always candid, often hilarious, Hugh talks openly about his experience in 2008 when his fund returned nearly 50% as markets melted down around him, about the fear he confronts every time he puts on a trade, his typically canny tactical approach to debating the fellow Scot he calls ‘The Best Speaker in the World’ and takes us back in time to a party in Moscow at an Oligarch’s apartment when he discovered the secret contents of an investing legend’s trouser pocket…
Rank #10: Adventures in Finance 40 - Electric Shock: The Shifting Sands Beneath Elon Musk & Tesla
Amidst a shift in the narrative surrounding Tesla after a series of production issues and mounting losses, Mark B. Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital Partners makes the bear case for the electric car manufacturer and explains why increasing competition from a series of luxury carmakers, advances in battery technology and the increasing scepticism surrounding Elon Musk’s outlandish promises are combining to set the company up for an uncomfortable ride… in the wrong direction.
Mark then bravely climbs aboard one of Musk’s Space X rockets to Mars and lets us know what he takes with him.
And in Things I Got Wrong, Dr. Pippa Malmgren offers two valuable lessons she learned about having the courage of your convictions (and what to do when you are proven wrong) and how making certain compromises in a man’s world are perhaps not the right path for a young, ambitious woman to take.
Rank #11: Adventures in Finance 25 - The Hedge Fund That Almost Broke the World
Before the hundreds of billions in corporate bailouts and trillions in central bank interventions, there was a time when we believed there was no way our financial models and investment strategies couldn’t be wrong. That was until a hedge fund came along that threatened to bring down the global financial system in 1998. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Julian Brigden, Co-Founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, shares what he got wrong on spotting major trends but jumping on them too soon.
Rank #12: Adventures in Finance 44 - Mind Games: Harnessing Market Psychology
Peter Atwater (Financial Insyghts) and Ben Hunt (Salient) are masters of how to measure confidence in both the economy and in markets. In conversation with Grant Williams, they break down their methods, and share some surprising insights about where we stand right now. Peter Atwater explains how “hubris” led him astray in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Rank #13: The Knock-On Effect Summer Series #2 - Raoul Pal on Turkey
Will turmoil in Turkey send global markets skidding? And why might such an economically small country have an incredibly outsized effect? Raoul Pal, co-founder CEO of Real Vision and founder of The Global Macro Investor, discusses with Justine and Alex.
Rank #14: Adventures in Finance 34 - Jim Rogers: The Investment Biker Rides Again
Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Grant Williams to talk about the defining moments in his life which took him to Wall Street in the 1960s and to Russia and China on a motorbike in the 1980s. Jim talks about how important non-consensus thinking has been throughout his career, explains how the current troubles in North Korea could provide the investment opportunity of a lifetime … and let’s Hugh Hendry know exactly what’s in his pocket.
Rank #15: Adventures in Finance 35 - Observations and Interpretations: Jim Grant
Grant Williams welcomes Jim Grant- legendary financial author and founder of the twice monthly journal on financial markets, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Together they discuss Jim’s rise to literary prominence from the time he was a gunner on the USS Hornet at the age of 17 through to his founding of Grant’s.
We learn his views on the incredible rate increases of the mid 1980’s, what the end game would be for Central Banks, what he would do if he was FED chairman, when he thought the devaluation of the Dollar really began, and what would he take with him on a one-way trip to mars?
Rank #16: Real Vision Rewind #1 – Godfather of Central Banking
How did the modern age of central banking begin? In this story previously heard in a 2017 episode of “Adventures in Finance,” Grant Williams, Aaron Chan and Ben Hunt look at the fascinating history of the man some consider the godfather of central banking, John Law. Then Alex and Justine draw some present-day conclusions.
Rank #17: Adventures in Finance 26 - Season Finale: Market Wizardry and the Power of Picking the Right indicator
Our season finale brings you three world-leading analysts and investors as they share their frameworks and favorite indicators, and help you to become a better investor. Featuring Jesse Felder of the Felder Report, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and Tian Yang of Variant Perception. We also say farewell to Aaron Chan, our co-host, as he departs Real Vision to continue his career in finance. In “Things I Got Wrong”, we speak with Josh Crumb, Co-founder of Goldmoney Inc., who shares the mistake he made diverging from the “long-term greedy” perspective.
Rank #18: Adventures in Finance 17 - Demographics Are Destiny
Neil Howe isn't only a household name for finance-types, he coined the term "Millennials" and literally wrote the book on generational analysis. This week, he shares his insights on where we stand in his Fourth Turning framework and what it means for markets and society. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Simon Mikhailovich, Founding Partner of Toqueville Bullion Reserve, shares what he got wrong about liquidity and leverage during 2007. (A very special thanks and congratulations to our producer, James, and his Mrs. on the arrival of their baby girl, Hayley!)
Rank #19: Adventures in Finance 11 - Broken Promises: The Impending Global Pension Crisis
The financial system will soon witness a collision between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. Pensions around the world are being crushed under the weight of trillions in unfunded liabilities while hundreds of millions of Baby Boomers are advancing to retirement in ever greater numbers, creating a perfect storm for the next crisis that is all but mathematically certain to happen. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh), co-host of The Investors Podcast, shares crucial lessons about applying value investing principles in times of crisis.
Rank #20: Adventures in Finance 41 - A Sea Change Could Be On The Fed’s Horizon
Is this a fork in the Fed’s road? President Trump has nominated Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Whether Powell will continue down the same path of Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke before her, remains an open question. Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former advisor to Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and author of Fed Up, says that Powell, in combination with other new faces at the central bank, could be poised to effect some serious change. Miles Kimball, professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder, isn’t so sure.
The real debate, however, is how Fed ought to operate, particularly once the next crisis crops its head. Booth and Kimball emerge as polar opposites here, with Booth advising a retreat from unconventional policies designed to stimulate the economy, and Kimball recommending that the Fed take interest rates sharply negative in the next downturn. More broadly, Kimball is a fan of rigorous action from the Fed, while Booth would like to see more humility in the Eccles Building.
Once the sides have been staked in the Fed debate, Booth takes her leave of this planet, and tells us what she would bring on a trip to Mars.
And speaking of humility, Kimball closes out the episode by offering up something he got wrong. Interestingly, it concerns not finance, but fat.