Over the last couple of days, we’ve seen key interest rates hiked in the Eurozone, left on hold in the U.S. and cut in China. All of which means that the global economic outlook is as complicated as ever. The Econoday team pull it all together.

UP 276: Central banks are doing their own thing

Taken together with the latest raft of central bank announcements, the recent deluge of real economy and inflation updates has given investors plenty to chew on. Here’s Econoday’s take on what it all means for the global economic outlook and financial markets

UP 275: Is central bank policy working? 

Recent interest rate hikes by several major central banks clearly underline the determination of the monetary authorities to get inflation back under control. However, for now, QT may have to run alongside central bank liquidity injections to reassure investors that another global financial crisis is not just around the corner.

UP 274:Central bank round-up: Inflation worries usurp banking woes

Despite some generally hawkish central bank statements this week, financial markets apparently remain convinced that official interest rates will be falling before year-end.  So, who’s right and does the disconnect matter?  Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss.

UP 273: Markets still don’t believe the central banks

Market reaction to this month’s data underscores just how uncertain investors are about the global economic outlook. And this means that asset prices are likely to remain particularly sensitive to the higher frequency data, at least until the picture becomes clearer.

UP 272: The economic outlook remains highly uncertain

Friday’s U.S. employment report dominates this week’s economic data calendar but it’s been the disastrous U-turn in UK government fiscal policy and the subsequent enforced deferral of the BoE’s QT plans that’s left many investors really rattled.  Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what’s going on.

UP 271: U.S. eyes September payrolls as the UK digests economic policy chaos  

Supported by aggressive rhetoric, this week’s raft of official interest rate hikes means that many central banks are still firmly in tightening mode. And that’s adding to recession risks and posing increasing problems for those monetary authorities reluctant or unable to follow suit.

UP 270: Central bank round-up: What they did and what it means

The impact of surging energy prices on monetary policy has been apparent for some while now but as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, the real economy fallout is increasingly forcing governments to intervene with fiscal help. The team discuss the global picture.

UP 269: The energy price shock is forcing a fiscal response

If there was one overriding message from last week’s Jackson Hole symposium it was that central banks have had enough of overshooting inflation. And from current elevated levels, that means further, almost certainly aggressive, monetary tightening that can only increase the likelihood of recession.

UP 268: Recession won’t stop rates rising

In recent weeks a number of central banks have modified, or even completely jettisoned, their forward guidance on interest rates. While sensibly allowing monetary policy to be more nimble, the changes also reflect increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook.  The team analyse the latest developments.

UP 267: Whatever happened to forward guidance?

Econoday’s economists look at the week’s important economic events.

Inflation is still far too high pretty well everywhere and, in some countries, still rising. However, as the real economy data disappoint, recession talk is getting notably louder. And if recession is just around the corner, it may be that the peak to inflation and interest rates is closer than many suppose.

UP 266: Global update: From inflation to recession? 

To varying degrees, inflation, geopolitical tensions and inevitably Covid continue to dictate investor behaviour in general. However, policy responses around the world have to respect what’s going on locally and national economic conditions differ markedly. The team look at the dislocations in economic cycles and their implications for financial markets in this month’s global podcast.

UP 264: A far from synchronised global recovery

Following a raft of central bank announcements on Wednesday and today, Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what the policymakers did and what it all means for financial markets in 2022.

UP 263: Central bank round-up - what they did and what it means

It's a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on 'Super Thursday'. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.

UP 262: A more aggressive Fed and 'Super Thursday'

Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

UP 261: An Omicron spanner in the works?

The dollar’s recent gains in part reflect euro weakness with the Eurozone unit now at multi-month lows against a range of currencies. Moreover, in the absence of a change in tone from the ECB, upcoming economic data and events could well reinforce the currency’s slide. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the medium-term outlook.

UP 260: Euro struggles as Powell renominated

U.S. inflation continues to climb and with it, so does speculation about early Fed tightening. With yield spreads likely to widen in the currency’s favour, October’s shock CPI report could open the door to a significantly stronger dollar that, in turn, would provide an additional unwelcome lift to prices overseas. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

UP 259:Surging inflation boosts the dollar

Financial markets have become used to being forewarned by central banks about prospective changes to monetary policy. However, when such decisions are split, clear communication becomes much harder.  Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss last week’s announcements and how the Fed got it right and the BoE got it wrong.

UP 258: Policy communication and central bank credibility 

With inflation increasingly pulling the monetary policy strings, the Federal Reserve this week is expected to launch its QE tapering plan while the Bank of England becomes the first of the G10 central banks to actually raise its benchmark interest rate.  Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the outlook for monetary policy in the context of the latest and upcoming key economic data.

UP 257: The turn in the policy cycle

By and large, central bankers around the world now seem to accept that high inflation will last longer than originally expected. Most still seem to expect a return to more normal rates in 2022 but the recent sharp jump in energy costs has pulled forward many investors’ view of monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, this week’s global podcast considers the tricky decisions facing the policymakers.

UP 256: Not so transitory inflation 

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