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Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

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We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

Nouriel Roubini on World War 3 Starting, Debt Crisis and Robot Takeover

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Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. He is Professor Emeritus at the Stern School of Business (New York University). He has previously served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. He’s the author of many books including his latest: Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future And How To Survive Them. In this podcast we discuss the implications of high debt levels, which balance sheets look worrisome, chances of World War and much more.

Oct 28 2022

1hr 11mins

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Doomberg on Energy Scarcity, Nuclear Power and Failure of Energy Transition Policies

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The Doomberg team are energy gurus amongst other things. They are the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and C-suite executives. Its principals have decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity and finance.

Oct 21 2022

50mins

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Robert Carver on How To Build Successful Trading Strategies

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Robert is a systematic futures trader, writer, and researcher. He is the author of several books on systematic trading including ‘Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems’ and the upcoming ‘Advanced Futures Trading Strategies’. Before becoming independent, Robert worked for AHL, one of the leading systematic hedge funds, which is part of the Man Group. He was responsible for the creation of AHL's fundamental global macro strategy, and then managed the funds multi-billion dollar fixed income portfolio. In this podcast, we discuss systematic vs discretionary trading, how to avoid overfitting and better back-tests, which frequency of trading works best, and much more.

Oct 14 2022

1hr 14mins

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Dave Newman on Hedge Fund Success, Investment Banking Lessons and Writing Daily

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Dave is President and CIO of KC3 Capital Management. Before that, he was Head of Macro Trading NY at Moore Capital and Managing Director in FX and Macro Trading at SAC Capital. Prior to his buy-side roles, Dave had various senior head of sales roles at Credit Suisse and JP Morgan. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Living through an investment bank merger. 2) The challenges of retaining talent at banks. 3) Moving from the sell-side to the buy-side (hedge funds). 4) What makes Louis Bacon and Moore Capital so successful. 5) The alpha of discretionary trading over quants. 6) The discipline of writing every day when trading markets. 7) How to manage your personal portfolio. 8) The value of allocating to external managers rather than just trading yourself. 8) Favourite sectors. 9) Private equity vs venture capital. 10) How to manage drawdowns. 11) Books mentioned: The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Chancellor), 21st Century Monetary Policy (Bernanke), The Panic of 1907 (Bruner), We Were Soldiers Once...And Young (Galloway), The Man Who Solved the Market (Zuckerman), Efficiently Inefficient (Pedersen), The Lords of Easy Money (Leonard).

Oct 07 2022

1hr 11mins

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Randy Schwimmer on Private Credit, Fed Shocks and Recession Risks

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Randy is co-head of senior lending and oversees senior lending origination and capital markets for Churchill Asset Management, which has $40bn of committed capital. Randy is widely credited with developing loan syndications for middle market companies. Prior to joining the firm, Randy served as a senior managing director and head of capital markets and indirect origination at Churchill Financial. Before that, he worked as managing director and head of leveraged finance syndication for BNP Paribas. He spent 15 years at JP Morgan Chase in corporate banking and loan syndications, where he originated, structured and syndicated leveraged loans. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Evolution of private credit markets. 2) Comparison to high-yield bonds and syndicated loans. 3) Why banks want to off-load loans. 4) Types of loans that make up private credit. 5) How buyers of private credit monitor loans. 6) Typical size of loans. 7) How to protect against recession risks. 8) How Fed hikes have affected private credit. 9) Role of private equity. 10) Are private markets a bubble? 11)Books that Randy mentioned: The Waste Land (TS Eliot), Eliot After The Waste Land (Crawford) , O Jerusalem! (Collins).

Sep 30 2022

55mins

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Howard Davies on How UK Chancellors Steer the UK In Crisis

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Howard Davies is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natwest Group. Previously, he was the Director of the London School of Economics (LSE) from 2003 until 2011. Prior to this appointment he was chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority from 1997 to 2003. From 1995 to 1997 he was Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, after three years as the Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. Earlier in his career he worked in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Treasury, McKinsey and Co, and as Controller of the Audit Commission. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Whether the UK should separate finance and economy minister roles. 2) The competition between the Chancellor and Prime Minister. 3) Why UK productivity has been low. 4) The impact of Bank of England independence for role of Chancellor. 5) How Gordon Brown reduced poverty. 6) Why taxes are so hard to change in the UK. 7) Why Alistair Darling was under-rated as Chancellor. 8) The problem with George Osbourne’s austerity drive. 9) The role of Chancellor in Scottish and EU referendums. 10) The challenge for the current Chancellor in targeting growth. 11) Whether the UK Treasury attracts the right talent.

Sep 23 2022

52mins

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Dr Sam Ramani on the Russia-Ukraine War, Recent Ukraine Wins and Putin’s Endgame

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Sam is a tutor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, and an Associate Fellow at the British defence think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He contributes regularly to media outlets, such as Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, Newsweek, and Al-Monitor, and think tanks, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Middle East Institute. In this podcast we discuss:

1) What was behind Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive win. 2) Why the Russian army is weaker than expected. 3) Why the counter-offensive started in September. 4) How the West is supporting Ukraine. 5) How internal dissent within the West could reduce support. 6) Whether Russia has any gas leverage left with Europe. 7) Status of the new war front between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 8) Whether Putin’s popularity suffered. 9) How the main players around Putin are faring. 10) Whether Ukraine aims to recapture the Donbas and Crimea. 11) Whether there are peace talks. 12) Points of escalation from Russia. 12) Lessons from Russia-Chechnya wars.

Sep 17 2022

37mins

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Artem Milinchuk on Alternative Assets, Farmland and Inflation Hedges

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Artem has over 10 years of finance experience in food, agriculture, and farmland. He holds an MBA from The Wharton School, and a BA and MA in Economics from the Higher School of Economics. Prior to founding FarmTogether, Artem was employee #1 and CFO/VP of Operations at Full Harvest Technologies, a now post-Series A B2B platform for​ buying and selling​ produce. He previously worked at Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Sprott Resource Holdings, E&Y and PwC. In this podcast we discuss types of investable farmland, whether farmland provides an inflation hedge, leverage levels in farmland, and much more. 

Sep 09 2022

38mins

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Karl Massey on the End of Investing as We Know It

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Karl is Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and Mentor at Creative Destruction Labs (Said Business School, University of Oxford). He began his career at JPMorgan trading fixed income. In 1996, Karl oversaw Banco Santander's Global Asset-Liability activities in Madrid. In 2001, he returned to London as Global Head of FX for HSBC Asset Management. From 2003, he held Senior Portfolio Manager roles at Brevan Howard, UBS O'Connor, Deutsche Bank's Cross Asset Trading group. In 2012 he joined Barclays Bank Treasury in London as Head of Euro Liquidity Management. In 2017 he joined LPP, Local Pensions Partnership, where he managed the Fixed Income portfolio. In 2018, he was a Participant at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Karl holds two degrees; Physics from Imperial College, London and Molecular Biophysics from University College, University of Oxford. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Capital-ism vs income-ism. 2) The demographic problem. 3) Importance of the scientific method. 4) The end of mean reversion. 5) Investment uncertainty vs risk. 6) The risk of correlation changes. 7) How today’s crises are different to GFC. 8) A coming asset crisis. 9) Phase transitions. 10) Central bank, real economy and political regime changes. 11) What the performance of the 60:40 portfolio tells us. 12) Solving for lower future market returns. 13) Demographic – climate change – machine learning shocks. 14) The failure of factor investing. 15) Have a plan A, B and C. 16) Career risk. 17) Books mentioned: The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon), The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat (Sacks)

Sep 02 2022

1hr 18mins

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James Fok on the US-China Financial Cold War, Dollar Dominance and Role of HK

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James Fok is a veteran financial and strategic advisor to corporations and governments. He served as a senior executive at Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) from 2012 until 2021. While there, he played a major role in a number of landmark financial markets initiatives, including the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme (2014), Bond Connect (2017) and the Hong Kong market's Listing Reforms (2018). Prior to HKEX, Fok worked as an investment banker in both Europe and Asia, specialising in the financial services sector. James is the author of the recently published book: Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets (2021). In this podcast we discuss:

1) The impact of the global financial crisis on the US and China. 2) How US-China relations have shifted since the Second World War. 3) China’s demographic challenge. 4) China dynastic history and what it tells us about China. 5) The need for China capital market reforms. 6) Reliance of China on the US dollar financial system. 7) The impact of Russia sanctions. 8) Costs to the US of dollar dominance. 9) Why Cold War analogies are incorrect. 10) How China’s reliance on food and energy imports affects its view on US containment policies. 11) Potential reforms to reduce US-China tensions. 12) The role of HK as a bridge between East and West. 13) Books that influenced James: The Quiet American (Greene) and Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Vogel).

Aug 26 2022

1hr 4mins

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Cameron Crise On Fed’s Balance Sheet Problem, Equity Drawdowns and Inflation

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Cameron Crise is a macro strategist at Bloomberg, where he writes the Macro Man column and posts on the Markets Live blog. Previously, he was a global macro portfolio manager at Graham Capital in Connecticut and Nylon Capital in London. Earlier in his career, he was a currency portfolio manager and economist for several European asset management firms and held a variety of foreign exchange roles at UBS. He is a graduate of Duke University with a degree in public policy studies and history. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Lessons from working at hedge funds. 2) Where are we in the US growth cycle? 3) Inflation path. 4) How high will the Fed hike? 5) Will bond yields reach new highs? 6) The problem with the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) programme. 7) Overnight moves in stock markets. 8) Chances of deeper equity correction. 9) Chances of larger financial crisis. 10) Thoughts on China and Europe. 11) Equity earnings. 12) Books mentioned: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), Market Wizards (Schwager) , Manias, Panics, and Crashes (Kindleberger) and Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor).

Aug 19 2022

1hr

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Denis Shull on Emotions as a Dataset and Avoiding Investment Mistakes [Replay]

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Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime’s BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Why understanding perception, judgment and decision making matters. 2) How your unconscious affects your decision making. 3) The particular challenge of trading and investing in markets. 4) The role of emotions and why we can’t ignore them. 5) Differences between emotions and impulse. 6) Understanding conviction levels. 7) Using intuition over impulse. 8) How to incorporate emotions into your dataset. 9) Traits of successful traders. 10) How to set up a hedge fund. 11) Books that influenced Denise: Seven and a Half Lessons About the Brain (Feldman Barret), and The Drama of the Gifted Child (Miller).

Aug 12 2022

59mins

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Diego Parrilla On High Inflation, Anti-Bubbles and the Problem with Stop Losses

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Diego is Managing Partner at $1.8b Quadriga Asset Managers. Prior to joining Quadriga in Madrid in 2017, Diego worked in London, New York, and Singapore for two decades and held senior leadership roles across macro commodity markets at JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, BlueCrest Capital, Dymon Asia, and Old Mutual Global Investors. Diego is best-selling co-author of ‘The Energy World is Flat’ (Wiley, 2014) and author of ‘The Anti-Bubbles’ (BEP, 2017).  Diego has a MS Mineral Economics from Colorado School of Mines, MS Petroleum Economics and Management by the French Institute of Petroleum in Paris, and MS Mining and Petroleum Engineering by the Madrid Polytechnic School of Mines. In this podcast we discuss the definition of an ‘anti-bubble’, why inflation is higher than you think, the right asset allocation for stagflation, and much more.

Aug 04 2022

1hr 9mins

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Lindsay Politi On the Inflation Path, Fed Cuts and Money Printing

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Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at  One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss:

1) The short-, medium- and long-term drivers of inflation. 2) Why near-term inflation could still rise even with growing recession fears. 3) Why changes in interest rates could matter more than the levels of interest rates. 4) How housing affects inflation. 5) Are there parallels to the 1970s? 6) Why inflation volatility matters. 7) Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? 8) Why the TIPs market may not give an accurate measure of long-term inflation. 9) The income potential of TIPs bonds. 10) The case of low inflation in Japan. 11) Books mentioned: Slouching Toward Utopia (DeLong), The Dawn of Everything (Graeber, Wengrow), Amusing Ourselves to Death (Postman).

Jul 29 2022

44mins

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Ivy Zelman on the Coming US Housing Crisis

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Ivy Zelman is CEO at Zelman & Associates. She co-founded Zelman & Associates in 2007 which is a leading housing research firm in the US. In 2005, Ivy called the top of the housing market. From there, she called the bottom of the housing market in January 2012. She helped best-selling writer, Michael Lewis, with research related to the mortgage crash which became a part of his best-selling book turned movie, ‘The Big Short.’ Michael wrote in the book ‘all roads led to Ivy.’  Ivy was inducted into the Institutional Investors - America Research Team’s inaugural Hall of Fame in 2012 as a result of Ivy and her team earning eleven 1st place rankings (1999 – 2004, 2006 – 2007 and 2010 – 2013). In this podcast we discuss:

1) How COVID impacted housing. 2) Inventory trends and why they are not supportive of prices. 3) Why housing demand is falling. 4) The problem with rising mortgage rates. 5) The role of investors in US residential housing. 6) The Airbnb Effect. 7) Why house prices will fall in 2023 and 2024. 8) Changes in mortgage products since 2008. 9) The large backlog of housing supply. 10) Understanding the build to rent market. 11) Demographic issues. 12) Affordability in rental properties. 13) Regional outlook including New York. 14) Books mentioned: The Psychology of Money (Housel), The Algebra of Happiness (Galloway), Gimme Shelter (Zelman).

Jul 22 2022

46mins

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Mikihiro Matsuoka on Bank of Japan policy, Japanisation of Economies, and the Demise of Capitalism

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Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Former Prime Minister Abe’s legacy in Japan. 2) The long-term impact of COVID on the global economy. 3) The demise of capitalism. 4) Why nominal GDP targeting is better than inflation targeting. 5) Measuring financial stress and why it is rising. 6) Which other countries are ‘Japanising’. 7) The current state of Japanese growth. 8) How high can Japanese inflation go? 9) Will the BoJ exit yield curve control (YCC)? 10) Is a weak yen a problem for Japan? 11) What drives Japanese bond yields. 12) Books that influenced Matsuoka-San: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn).

Jul 15 2022

47mins

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Boris Vladimirov on Fed Scenarios, Recession Risks and EM Outperformers

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Boris is one of the top macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated to. In this podcast, we discuss:

1) Increased volatility in the business cycle. 2) How close are we to market crunch point. 3) Three most likely scenarios for the Fed, inflation, and recession. 4) Main street vs Wall Street liquidity. 5) How to understand money supply (M2). 6) How will bonds and equities perform? 7) Which EM markets will perform or not? 8) What typically happens to EM during recessions. 9) The chances of a China stimulus.

Jul 08 2022

34mins

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Marion Laboure on Democratising Finance, Bitcoin as Digital Diamond and Central Bank Digital Currency

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This episode is sponsored by Amber Group

Marion is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank in London and a lecturer at Harvard University. She has extensive private sector, public policy, and monetary policy experience, including at the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, the Luxembourg Central Bank, and Barclays. She received first prize from the American Society of Actuaries, Revue Banque nominated her as a rising star in finance, and Business Insider named her a cryptocurrency mastermind. Laboure holds a bachelor’s degree from Université Paris Dauphine, a master’s degree from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a Doctorate of Philosophy from the Ecole normale supérieure in Paris. On this podcast we discussed:

1) Experience of working for the European Commission. 2) How fintech is impacting developing countries. 3) The financial challenges of millennials. 4) The problem of financial literacy amongst retail investors. 5) Why are crypto markets so volatile. 6) The impact of central bank liquidity on crypto. 7) Crypto: payment vs digital gold. 8) The rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 9) Will CBDC displace banks? 10) Can crypto displace the fiat financial system? 11) Books that influenced Marion: The Curse of Cash (Rogoff), The End of Alchemy (King).

Jul 01 2022

38mins

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Raymond Sagayam on the Biggest Overlooked Market Risk, Building World Class Teams, and Lessons from Bodybuilding

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Ray is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management. He joined Pictet in 2010 as Head of Total Return Fixed Income, before becoming CIO in 2017 and an Equity Partner in 2018. Before joining Pictet, Raymond was head of dollar and euro credit investments at Swiss Re Asset Management. Before that, he worked for Bank Brussels Lambert (ING) trading US Credit. He has traded credit across all major geographies and began his career at ING Barings in Emerging Markets in 1997. Raymond holds a Bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Master's in Contemporary Theology in the Catholic Tradition from Heythrop College, University of London. On this podcast we discussed:

1) Why investing globally gives you an edge. 2) The importance of trading across the capital structure of companies. 3) Why price matters. 4) Making illiquidity your friend. 5) What investors are currently missing – the credit cycle. 6) How to manage an investment team. 7) Nurture vs narcissism. 8) What to look for in new hires. 9) The importance of managing the exit process well. 10) When trading, knowing when to cut. 11) Understanding that it’s easier to buy and harder to sell. 12) Books that influenced Ray: Brave New World (Huxley), Liar’s Poker (Lewis), The New Encyclopedia of Modern Bodybuilding (Schwarzenegger).

Jun 24 2022

51mins

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Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on How the Fed is Setting Policy and Why an 8% US Interest Rate is Likely

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Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in-depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy- and sell-side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:  

1) How the Fed is setting policy based on the latest inflation print. 2) Why the Fed has lost its bearings in its inflation strategy. 3) Why a terminal Fed Funds Rate around 8% is likely. 4) Why the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey tells us more about inflation than growth. 5) Why the Fed could struggle to slow the economy. 6) What investors should look out for. 7) Why higher demand for consumer durables could be the new normal. 8) Whether the US will go into recession in 2023 

You can follow Dominque’s work here   

Jun 17 2022

40mins

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Amazing insights

By Andy28 S - Apr 24 2020
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Thanks Macro Hive these podcasts keep getting more interesting and insightful each episode. There is always long term key themes and actionable ideas

Great new podcast

By Bpcnc - Mar 29 2020
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the first two episodes were very informative if you want a deeper understanding of why's and wherefore’s of financial markets’ reactions to COVID19.