Rank #1: Dissecting the Market Disconnect
With the US expansion now the longest on record and no shortage of risks on the horizon, growth uncertainty is Top of Mind. This uncertainty has been at the heart of the dovish pivot from central banks this year, which has generally helped push bond yields lower in anticipation of Fed rate cuts ahead, but equity prices higher. So just how concerned about growth should we really be? In this episode of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan asks Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and others to weigh in. Dalio argues that recent price action makes sense given the Fed’s easier stance, but worries we’re pushing the limits of monetary easing, which—among other political and geopolitical factors—will ultimately bring about a negative shift in growth and markets. But Jan Hatzius argues that markets are perhaps too concerned about growth and not concerned enough about the direction of Fed policy, as the costs of easing now potentially outweigh the benefits.
Jul 16 2019
Rank #2: Trade Wars 3.0
The prospect of a larger and longer trade war has increased as US-China trade negotiations have taken a turn for the worse and President Trump has opened up trade battles on new fronts. Allison Nathan from Goldman Sachs Research speaks with experts about how we got here, where tensions may go from here, and potential implications for the global economy and beyond in this episode of Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs.
Jun 07 2019
Rank #3: Investing In Climate Change
In this episode, we dig into what may be the most important issue of our time: climate change. On the heels of a climate-focused World Economic Forum in Davos, the unveiling of Europe’s new Green Deal, and increased attention on climate change by the world’s largest asset managers and banks, climate change is undoubtedly Top of Mind.
We speak with Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago, Nathaniel Keohane of the Environmental Defense Fund and Goldman Sachs’ Steve Strongin about the climate challenge, and what it will take to address it. We also discuss how capital markets and climate policy are driving transformational shifts in the energy industry, and what it means for sector returns. Finally, the head of the Goldman Sachs Sustainable Finance Group, John Goldstein, provides insight and advice on ESG investing and integration, and the growing implications of shareholders and clients increasingly demanding more accountability on climate.
Feb 05 2020
Rank #4: Fiscal Focus
With monetary policy, conducted by central banks, nearly exhausted in the major economies and low interest rates globally, whether fiscal policy, conducted by governments, should play a greater role from here is Top of Mind. In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former IMF Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard, Harvard professor, Alberto Alesina, and Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist, Jan Hatzius. They discuss whether increased fiscal stimulus today would do more good than harm, and, even if it would, whether the economies that need it the most will pursue it. Our key takeaways: Germany should embrace a large fiscal expansion, but likely won’t; investors should expect some more fiscal stimulus in China, but only enough to avoid a sharp slowdown.
Audio of former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is courtesy of the European Central Bank YouTube channel via the Creative Commons Attribution license https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjIaLD4I8go).
Dec 02 2019
Rank #5: Growth and Geopolitical Risk
The market has once again been gripped by recession fears at the same time that geopolitical and policy risk is flaring up. Some of these risks—like the US-China trade war—are feeding recessionary fears, while others—like the attack on Saudi oil facilities that led to the largest ever daily disruption in oil supplies—have gone almost unnoticed. And this is despite the fact that oil shocks were one of the most common causes of recession historically. Whether this complacency is warranted, and the vulnerability of the economy and markets to this and other geopolitical shocks, is Top of Mind. In this episode, Goldman Sachs’ Head of Energy Research Damien Courvalin explains why the oil market is much better positioned to deal with supply outages today, and thus is a less likely recession trigger than in the past. But the Council on Foreign Relations’ President, Richard Haass, and Columbia Professor Richard Nephew explain why instability looks set to rise in the Middle East and beyond.
Oct 16 2019