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Trend Following with Michael Covel

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Business
Investing
Science
Social Sciences
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast..

Read more

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast..

iTunes Ratings

533 Ratings
Average Ratings
451
34
16
9
23

Excellent podcast. Feel a bit smarter after listening.

By sabhen119 - Sep 18 2019
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Love the quality of the guests.

Outstanding

By CroLun - Feb 17 2019
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Quality of the major contribution work Michael does is outstanding.

iTunes Ratings

533 Ratings
Average Ratings
451
34
16
9
23

Excellent podcast. Feel a bit smarter after listening.

By sabhen119 - Sep 18 2019
Read more
Love the quality of the guests.

Outstanding

By CroLun - Feb 17 2019
Read more
Quality of the major contribution work Michael does is outstanding.

Listen to:

Cover image of Trend Following with Michael Covel

Trend Following with Michael Covel

Updated 1 day ago

Read more

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast..

Ep. 464: The Next Brexit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Everyone was told to trust the system and be happy: “Save your money and interest income will be your retirement.” This has come to be completely untrue and people are collectively beginning to wise up, as seen in Brexit. Michael goes into a timeline of market crashes illustrating trend following success: 1973-1974 stocks go down 50% and trend following kills it. 1987, known as Black Market Monday, US stocks go down 20%+ in a day and trend following kills it. Barings Bank collapses spring of 1995, trend following kills it. August 1998, Long Term Capital Management craters, and trend following made a fortune. It was almost a zero sum transfer from LTCM to trend followers in August of 1998. Spring of 2000, the dot com bubble bursts and trend following cleans up again. 2002 was one of the best trend following performance years ever. After 2002 another bubble is built and when it burst in October of 2008, trend following had outstanding performance results yet again. When the majority of people think the world is ending, trend following is reaping the profits. Brexit? Yes, too. Nobody can predict the future but if you want to play the game, you have to place bets. Trend followers were in established trends once Brexit hit. They do not predict, but they have educated bets. Michael ends with one question, “What side are you going to be on? The side of the winners or the side of the losers?” It’s your choice.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Boom and busts
  • Brexit
  • Certainty in markets

Jul 04 2016

24mins

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Ep. 620: 2018 Will Be Great with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Happy new year and please enjoy my all day 11-hour compilation covering 3 of my favorite guests. A timeless reminder to start 2018 the right way! And if you don't want to listen all the way through then enjoy my opening intro rant!

Dec 31 2017

11hr 40mins

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Ep. 563: Mark Minervini Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Mark Minervini is author of “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market” and now his newest book, “Think and Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules and Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard.” He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s “Stock Market Wizards.” This is Mark’s second appearance on the show. Nature vs. nurture or the debate of whether a person is “naturally gifted” is one of the oldest debates out there. Mark says he was an “unnatural” when it came to trading and he was actually in the negative for the first six years when he started. Why did he keep going? He had a passion for trading and a bigger vision of what he was doing. Mark knew he had all the tools to trade for profit, just not all the experience yet. He believed in what he was doing, had a passion for it, took responsibility for his flaws and put the process before the results–that is why Mark thinks he has been able to thrive over the years. “If you do not think you can perform at a certain level, you won’t be able to perform at that level” explains Mark. Trading ultimately doesn’t come down to talent, it comes down to a trader’s correct mentality. Everyone wants to win, but everyone doesn’t choose to win. Is your passion your priority? Sacrifice is essential when trying to obtain anything worthy and Mark shares some of the personal sacrifices he made to become who he is today. Next, Mark explains what is known as “the trading triangle.” Your average gain, average loss, and percentage of wins is what is known as the trading triangle. Averaging those components makes up your personal bell curve. When Mark does workshops only 8-12% of people attending have an idea of what their average gains and losses are. Michael and Mark end the podcast going over the pros and cons of diversification. Diversification is great until it turns into what Mark calls “di-worsification.” When traders and companies start to veer too far from their core values they can start to hurt themselves with diversifying. There are many benefits from diversification when done in the correct way. Good traders know when to step on the gas and have a strategy backing them up.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Process vs. outcome
  • Builder vs. wrecking ball mentality
  • Eliminating excuses
  • Neuro-linguistic programing
  • Sacrifice when obtaining a goal
  • Risk of ruin
  • The trading triangle
  • Diversification vs. Di-worsification
  • Sophistication and simplicity

Jun 16 2017

41mins

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Ep. 504: Jim Rickards Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Jim Rickards. Jim was front and center during the 1998 LTCM blow-up. He was a partner and general counsel for Long Term Capital Management. Following their blowup, he was principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve. He has had a bird’s eye view of some of the most interesting events in the economy over the last 20 years. In Jim’s latest book, “The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis,” he talks about 1998, 2008 and 2018. Jim gives these dates as examples of financial crises that happen (and will happen) every six to ten years. He relates financial panics to earthquakes. If you could stop an earthquake mid earthquake, this is similar to how we have been dealing with financial crises over the years. When bubbles are created, and then bailouts occur, government is only putting a stopper in the problem, however the problem is still there and building. The next bailout can’t come from the central banks. Jim and Michael finish the podcast discussing cyber hacking and WWIII. Jim believes WWIII has already begun between Russia and America on a cyber warfare front. Cyber warfare has been happening between Russia and the U.S. for years. It is the worse kind of attack because you can get into major operating systems. Jim uses the operating systems of the Hoover Dam or getting into the operating system of the New York Stock Exchange as examples. If a terrorist got into the operating system of the Hoover Dam and opened up the flood gates it would wipe out hundreds of thousands of people.

Nov 21 2016

35mins

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Ep. 500: Charles Faulkner Special with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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My special 500th episode is a 6-hour aggregate show featuring Charles Faulkner.

Nov 07 2016

6hr 19mins

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Ep. 476: Commandments with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael starts the podcast off with excerpts from an interview with Clint Eastwood. Clint answers the question, “What is the pussy generation?” He also goes on to give his take on what is wrong with the US presidential election, unemployment and free education. Michael sums up the interview saying, “I do love that this 86 year old tough guy is telling us…” Michael uses Eastwood to lay the foundation for the rest of the podcast as he talks about “Trend Following Commandments.” Michael goes in depth about some of these fundamental trend following principles.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Political correctness
  • Pussy generation
  • Absolute returns
  • Inefficient markets
  • Market bubbles
  • Fundamentals are religion
  • The market is never wrong
  • Cutting your losses
  • Learn to love your losses
  • Price action
  • Betting the markets properly
  • Failure is the secret to success

Aug 15 2016

30mins

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Ep. 551: Jack Schwager with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Jack Schwager is author of the Market Wizards series and just completed his second edition of A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Trading, Spreads, and Options. Jack has gone into great detail updating his 1984 original edition with over 600 pages of educational insights. At the beginning of his trading career technical analysis never made much sense. However, as he worked in markets over the years, he came to see that those who used charts and technical analysis tended to make more money. He also saw that fundamental analysis almost goes against the idea of money management. He found that the same went for risk management: How does risk management work with a truly fundamental perspective? It doesn’t for most. The basics of futures trading for most is fuzzy. Jack gives a short summation of the basics: 1. Futures are very liquid. 2. They trade for every type of instrument you could think of. 3. You can go short or long just as easy. 4. Futures are truly a zero sum game. 5. They are real markets and have real fundamentals pushing trends. 6. Basic trends do have some sort of rational behind them in futures markets and the skilled fundamental players will beat the unskilled players if they are good at assessing probabilities. Michael and Jack finish talking about trading as an art vs. science, whipsaws, failure to exploit major trends, drawdowns and the efficient market hypothesis.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamentals vs. Technical analysis
  • Risk management
  • Contrarian view on fundamentals
  • Charting
  • Science vs. art in trading
  • Whipsaws
  • Exploiting trends
  • Sharpe ratio
  • Efficient market hypothesis

May 05 2017

1hr 7mins

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Ep. 758: The Foundation of Good Trading with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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The Foundation of Good Trading with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Apr 29 2019

3hr 49mins

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Ep. 707: Deliberate Practice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Deliberate Practice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 02 2018

1hr 23mins

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Ep. 514: Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael has put together a compilation of past appearances aggregated into a four hour episode. Guests today include: Daniel Kahneman, Laurie Santos, Steven Kotler, Anders Ericsson, Philip Tetlock, and Colin Camerer. Daniel Kahneman has been called the most important psychologist alive today. He is the 2002 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, and is the guy behind the theories of behavioral economics and behavioral finance. Laurie Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans. Kotler is an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, etc. Anders Ericsson is a Swedish psychologist and Conradi Eminent Scholar and Professor of Psychology at Florida State University. He is internationally recognized as a researcher in the psychological nature of expertise and human performance. His new book is “Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise.” Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” is about probabilistic thinking defined. Colin Camerer is an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is the interface between cognitive psychology and economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Remembering self vs. Experiencing self
  • How the measures of happiness are being implemented into public policy
  • How failure to accept one’s losses can lead to risk-taking in trading
  • Crowd behavior relating economic bubbles
  • Why capitalism is largely driven by optimism
  • Behavioral economics affecting the trading world
  • Monkeys and humans
  • The monkey economy
  • The endowment effect
  • G.I. Joe fallacy
  • Discipline and practice
  • Solo and group practice
  • Flow state
  • Social motivation
  • The late birthday rule
  • 10,000 hours of practice
  • Nature vs. nurture
  • Brain plasticity
  • What are superforecasters?
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Looking at data
  • The basis of decision making

Dec 26 2016

4hr 29mins

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Ep. 467: David Burkus Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael and David Burkus start off talking about Fredrick Winslow Taylor. Fredrick’s claim to fame is discovering that it isn’t about innovating a product, but rather about innovating the factory. He looked into factory processes and what it took to make a product most effectively. The downside of his work was that he believed management should be operated scientifically as well. He thought that management was smart and factory workers were dumb. His values helped people focus on how to make a product most efficiently not how to make people sustainable, prolific and healthy. He took a lot of the emotion out of it. Most of his work has shifted from the United States and moved to other more factory driven places such as China. The new form of work that we are seeing in most countries is creative work. Employees are required to make decisions or make collective designs with people in their company. Michael asks, “Isn’t this about making employees feel like entrepreneurs in their company or organization?” David uses tech start-ups as examples; Even as they get big they aim to make their companies continue to feel like a start-up and train their employees to think like solo entrepreneurs. This is how trust and intellect gets built within a company. Next, Michael and David discuss the effectiveness of email. Pros: The cost of email is cheap and you can respond on your own schedule. Cons: Constant text and emails have diverted focus and created too much distraction. David stresses that there is no such thing as “multitasking”, there is only task switching. Some studies say it could take up to 15 minutes to get back to the focus you were at before you were interrupted. Michael and David move the discussion back to the importance of keeping your employees happy. Having outstanding customer satisfaction comes down to putting employees first. Sometimes that means siding with your employees over your customers. You need to be able to tell some customers that your company or product simply may not be right for them. Also, creating the right work environment is key. Open work environments as opposed to more closed work environments have been becoming the norm. In an open office environment the idea is that working together is easy and creates a better collaborative environment. However there are negative effects such as increased sick days (perhaps because they do not want to see certain co-workers) and more distraction. Michael and David finish talking about non-compete clauses and the counter productiveness of them. There is a difference between a non-compete and a non-disclosure. Apple and Google have two totally different views on this. Google is 100% fluid and open. Apple is very closed off and believes in the non-compete clause. When people migrate from one company to another, it has been shown in studies that both companies actually win from the intellectual knowledge transferred and gained from each other. Non-compete environments benefit everyone in the long term. Also, on a societal level you can see a huge benefit when non-competes are not allowed.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Re-designing the factory
  • Physical labor vs. Intellectual labor
  • Machines vs. Man
  • Multitasking = Task switching
  • “The customer is always right” mentality
  • Confirmation bias
  • Introverts and extroverts
  • Customer service
  • Non-compete clauses

Jul 15 2016

45mins

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Ep. 487: Robert Cialdini Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Robert Cialdini is on today’s podcast. He is best known for writing “Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion” published back in 1984. Robert is the “go to man” for understanding effective persuasion. Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking and scarcity are his six key principles of influence that he teaches. His new book, “Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade”, introduces a seventh key principle of influence. Michael asks “How did you start down this path? What was your ‘A-ha’ moment that got you researching for this new book?” Robert says it was a series of recognitions as he was reading the newest work in behavioral studies that made him realize that creating mindsets in people didn’t involve just six principles. He went back to his notes and looked at what the top people in various professions were doing. He realized that they were acting like gardeners. They were preparing the earth before planting the seed. These professionals were priming a persons mind to perceive their idea more fully. Next, Michael and Robert talk about anchoring a persons perception of what they are paying or asking for. You start off with a higher number or a grander request before hitting the other person with what you really want. “Are there types of thinkers where pre-suasion is not as effective? Or have you found universally across the populations that pre-suasion is just very effective?” Robert says it seems to be a universal operating procedure that is built into us from birth. He uses a study done with 18 month old babies that proves that this is built into our psyche. Lastly, Michael asks Robert to elaborate on the idea of unity. Robert shares a story of Warren Buffett and unity taken from his book. Michael finishes up the last 20 minutes of the podcast with a presentation on behavior change and the part that social norms play in creating that change, given by Robert. He focuses on how to make people move more towards a environmentally socially responsible role.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Establishing trust before asking for anything
  • Rational self interest
  • Anchoring a persons perception
  • Asking for advice rather than an opinion
  • Warren Buffett’s shareholder letter
  • Environmental responsibility

Sep 23 2016

49mins

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Ep. 776: Getting Rich The Smart Way with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Getting Rich The Smart Way with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jul 01 2019

21mins

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Ep. 544: Serenity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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To celebrate my upcoming fifth edition of Trend Following (April 24, 2017)…my mega episode with Tom Basso is here again by popular demand. If you want to know the right way to think, Tom brings it. Michael plays all of Tom’s interviews back to back and throws in a bonus interview at the beginning. The bonus excerpt is a Tom Basso presentation from the early to mid 1990s. Tom is most famously known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager’s “The New Market Wizards”. Now retired from managing client money, Tom was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998. Throughout this 4 1/2 hour podcast Michael and Tom cover a broad range of topics including: Tom’s background and how he got into trading, speculation, emotional rushes, emotional devastation, catastrophic events, separating trading from politics, behavioral economics, advice to newcomers entering the CTA industry, location independence, time management, stoicism, black swans, and the importance of routine. Michael and Tom also go through listener questions spanning topics including: trading regrets, money management vs. trading, tinkering with current systems, drawdowns, one-system vs. multiple systems, thoughts on Alan Watts, emotions during both losing and winning periods, exit strategies, practice trading vs. live trading, money management, risk control, how to handle skeptics, serenity, John W. Henry, coin flip entry method, percent betting, comfort with uncertainty, initial capital at risk vs. unrealized gains, and fighting against your gut reaction. This podcast includes a wealth of knowledge worth listening to over and over again.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Speculation
  • Fighting against emotions
  • Catastrophic events
  • Separating trading from politics
  • Advice to newcomers entering the CTA industry
  • Time Management
  • The importance of routine
  • Money management vs. Trading

Apr 10 2017

4hr 31mins

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Ep. 450: Making Money Every Month Is Fantasy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off reading a listener email from someone interested in making 3-4% every month with only 15% drawdowns. Michael gives his personal feedback as well as responses from Facebook after posting the email. The responses were mixed. Some people fully believed these kinds of returns are possible, while Michael and others said that if anyone is telling you they can produce 3-4% returns every month then it is absolutely a scam. Only Long Term Capital Management, Bernie Madoff, and some high frequency traders with insider trading access can tout such returns. Michael finishes the podcast talking about the upcoming American elections. What is the alternative to Trump and Sanders? Hilary Clinton? Michael says that everything is an act with Clinton and that she’s a bona fide…[fill in the blank].

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Long Term Capital Management
  • Bernie Madoff
  • Leverage
  • Diversification
  • Indian Stock Market

May 16 2016

26mins

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Ep. 490: Trump the Fed with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael dives into Donald Trump and the Fed. Listen at your peril!

Mentions & Resources:

  • Donald Trump
  • Janet Yellen
  • The Fed

Oct 03 2016

24mins

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Ep. 491: Brian Christian Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Brian Christian, co-author of “Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions,” is on today’s podcast. The book shows how common algorithms relate to our everyday lives. Brian starts off giving a historical explanation of an “algorithm”. Algorithms do not just relate to computers or mathematical procedures. A cooking recipe can be described as an algorithm or you could use an algorithm to solve the question, “How do you know when your best opportunity is?” Brian says you use an algorithm known as “optimal stopping” to solve this question. He explains the algorithm that provides the best probability of the best outcome. Probability is the next. Is it worth exploring a new business possibility? Or is it better to hone in your skills and continue on with what you are doing? There is a formal framework or algorithm to help make these decisions. Brian explains the “win stay, lose shift” approach. If a restaurant is good, go back. If you don’t have a good experience, don’t go back. It may not be the optimal approach but it is a good approach and easy to live by. Michael jumps to an example with Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon. Brian tells Jeff’s story of Amazon and how he left his successful job at the time to start up this “online bookstore”. He ultimately used a “regret minimization framework” to make his decision. There was a possibility Jeff may not have been successful starting Amazon, but had he not tried it, he would have regretted not trying for the rest of his life. Brian also gives other examples of regret minimization algorithms. Michael and Brian discuss threading next. Lastly, Michael brings up the “searching vs. sorting conundrum” that Brian discusses thoroughly in his book. Brian gives examples about sorting through information on the computer. He says that people should ask themselves “Should you be sorting at all?” Brian explains why “messy” is sometimes better.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Optimal stopping
  • What is an algorithm
  • Process vs. Outcome
  • The explore, exploit trade off
  • The multi-arm bandit problem
  • Win stay, lose shift
  • Regret minimization framework
  • Frequency and intensity of mistakes related to age
  • Upper confidence bound algorithm
  • Threading

Oct 07 2016

50mins

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Ep. 472: Silence with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Today, Michael dives into silence. An excerpt from Daniel Gross: “In the mid 20th century, epidemiologists discovered correlations between high blood pressure and chronic noise sources like highways and airports. Later research seemed to link noise to increased rates of sleep loss, heart disease, and tinnitus. (It’s this line of research that hatched the 1960s-era notion of “noise pollution,” a name that implicitly refashions transitory noises as toxic and long-lasting.)” “Silence” science is leading the way with awesome new insights: “The growth of new cells in the brain doesn’t always have health benefits. But in this case, cells [generated from silence] seemed to become functioning neurons. “We saw that silence is really helping the new generated cells to differentiate into neurons, and integrate into the system.” Michael weaves this narrative right back into his wheelhouse: day trading v. trend following. Lessons for traders, lessons for life. Enjoy the silence!

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Peace and quiet is all about the noise in your head.
  • Correlations between high blood pressure and chronic noise sources.
  • Possible therapeutic uses for silence.
  • Trend following.

Aug 01 2016

25mins

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Ep. 653: Alexander Elder Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Alexander Elder has written some of the most popular trading books of the last 30 years. He grew up in Estonia among a successful family of doctors. Alexander followed in his family’s footsteps, becoming a doctor and making his way on a cargo ship. He ran from his ship to a U.S. Embassy, escaping from his country. His decision to jump ship was literally the best decision of his life. He is author of Trading for a Living, considered a modern classic among traders, an international best-seller, translated into 16 languages, and recently newly revised and released under the title, The New Trading for a Living. This is his second appearance on the show.

How is Alexander’s trading different? Alexander is motivated by creating quality. He has a sense and intuition for it. Someone who is losing money looks at their situation “like a rabbit running from a snake.” Alexander thinks differently. He trades by way of systems. He has his orders set for the day, goes skiing, then comes back to the computer to watch the last hour of trading to see if he needs to make any adjustments. He learns from his mistakes and makes sure his systems are the highest quality they can be.

What was the pivotal moment that broke Alexander into the trading direction he is in? There was not one moment, but many losing ones. He hates to lose. He overcame his losing over time with persistence and stubbornness. He studied his systems and trades vigorously until he had a winning system.

Another motivation? Knowing that failure was not an option. Alexander grew up in a successful family with money – If he failed in his home country, he would have been taken care of. However, now that he was in the United States, he knew if he failed he would be on the street. There would be nobody to take care of him. Do you hit rock bottom and paddle up? Or do you stay there and become a bum? Alexander chose to paddle up.

Apr 27 2018

52mins

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Ep. 712: Bradley Hope Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Bradley Hope is a finance and malfeasance reporter for the Wall Street Journal and his latest book is “Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World.” Bradley is a Pulitzer finalist and winner of the Gerald Loeb Award for international reporting and the TRACE International Award for Investigative Reporting.

“Billion Dollar Whale” profiles a man named Jho Low – a young Malaysian man from a relatively wealthy family. He grew up attending the best boarding schools and finished up schooling at The Wharton School. During his time at Wharton he created a private equity group. He was able to get some of his wealthier friends and their parents to throw money into the fund. From a young age he knew what made people tick and had a talent connecting with very wealthy and strong political figures. Jho eventually got an audience with the Prime Minister of Malaysia to set up a fund for the Prime Minister’s campaign – this is where the real story of Jho Low starts to unfold.

Jho quickly went from a guy with a million or so dollars to worth about $700 million over night. He began throwing extravagant parties, renting private yachts and planes, and rubbing elbows with the world’s elite. He started buying giant stakes in companies and was even able to borrow 6 ½ billion from Goldman Sachs. The extent of how much he has stolen and from who is still largely unknown. Jho Low figured out how the world works, develop relationships and was the king of understanding that you could buy just about everything. With the scandal still unfolding in real time, Bradley’s book has created waves in countries around the world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Sovereign wealth funds
  • Money laundering
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Banking compliance

Nov 19 2018

52mins

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Ep. 822: You Are Supposed to Think Like the Mob with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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You Are Supposed to Think Like the Mob with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 09 2019

19mins

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Ep. 821: Chris Varelas Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Responsible for brokering some of the biggest mergers and acquisitions in finance, Chris Varelas was listed among the top 100 dealmakers by the New York Times and was named top technology rainmaker by DealMakers Monthly magazine. After working as Citi’s head of technology, media, and telecommunications during the first dot-com boom and then leading the company’s national investment bank and regional offices, Varelas left Citi in 2008 to cofound Riverwood Capital, a premier private equity firm in Silicon Valley.

Chris brings a provocative and entertaining voyage into the turbulent heart of modern money that sheds new light on the rise of our threatening and complicated financial system, how money became our adversary, and why finding a new course is crucial to a healthy society.

In the not too distant past, money was simple. You might have had a bank account and a mortgage, perhaps some basic investments. Wall Street didn’t have a reputation for greed and recklessness. That all started to change in the eighties, as our financial systems became increasingly complex, moving beyond the understanding of the general public while impacting our lives in innumerable ways. The financial world began to feel like an enigma—a rogue force working against us, seemingly controlled by no one.

From an industry veteran who’s had firsthand involvement in the events that shaped modern money, How Money Became Dangerous journeys from the crime-ridden LA jewelry district to the cutthroat Salomon Brothers trading floor, from the high-stakes world of investment banking to the center of the technology boom, capturing the key deals, developments, and players that made the financial world what it is today. The book illuminates the dark, hidden forces of Wall Street and how it has dehumanized and left behind everyday Americans. A fresh and enlightening take on how we reached this point, How Money Became Dangerous also makes the case for why Wall Street needs to be saved, if only to save ourselves.

Dec 05 2019

52mins

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Ep. 820: Tell Me Something I Don't Know with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Tell Me Something I Don't Know? Well, Scott Galloway, Brian Christian, Matthew Walker and Jeffrey Tucker do just that on this post holiday mega episode.

Dec 02 2019

3hr 30mins

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Ep. 819: Paul Gulino Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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This is a new conversation with Paul Gulino and Michael. Think of it as Part II. Here is part I.

Paul Gulino believes in Hitchcock’s adage that “films are made on paper.” Although students may obsess about a film’s look, all of the visual elements, he says, function to enhance the story. And that, ultimately, comes from the mind of the screenwriter.

In spite of the fact that there seems to be a screenwriter behind every corner (in California, at least), screenwriting is something of a lost art, Gulino maintains, having seen hundreds of flat screenplays as a story analyst for Showtime Entertainment.

Honing his own skills through writing for the theater and practicing the craft as taught by Frank Daniel and Milos Forman, Gulino secured an agent with William Morris on the basis of his thesis script. With that “real world” confirmation in hand, Gulino went on to write and see produced features, plays and comedy sketches.

Screenwriting, he says, isn’t a craft you can learn from a book. “The best way is to learn from someone who knows the craft, so you can see how theories can be applied to your own work.” There must be something to that.

Nov 29 2019

52mins

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Ep. 818: The Act of Thinking Can Feel Nice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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The Act of Thinking Can Feel Nice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 25 2019

20mins

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Ep. 817: Buster Benson Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Have you ever walked away from an argument and suddenly thought of all the brilliant things you wish you’d said? Do you avoid certain family members and colleagues because of bitter, festering tension that you can’t figure out how to address?

Now, finally, there’s a solution: a new framework that frees you from the trap of unproductive conflict and pointless arguing forever.

If the threat of raised voices, emotional outbursts, and public discord makes you want to hide under the conference room table, you’re not alone. Conflict, or the fear of it, can be exhausting. But as this powerful book argues, conflict doesn’t have to be unpleasant. In fact, properly channeled, conflict can be the most valuable tool we have at our disposal for deepening relationships, solving problems, and coming up with new ideas.

As the mastermind behind some of the highest-performing teams at Amazon, Twitter, and Slack, Buster Benson spent decades facilitating hard conversations in stressful environments. In this book, Buster reveals the psychological underpinnings of awkward, unproductive conflict and the critical habits anyone can learn to avoid it. Armed with a deeper understanding of how arguments, you’ll be able to:

• Remain confident when you’re put on the spot • Diffuse tense moments with a few strategic questions • Facilitate creative solutions even when your team has radically different perspectives

Why Are We Yelling will shatter your assumptions about what makes arguments productive. You’ll find yourself having fewer repetitive, predictable fights once you’re empowered to identify your biases, listen with an open mind, and communicate well.

Buster Benson is an entrepreneur and a former product leader at Amazon, Twitter, Slack, and Patreon. He’s now CEO of 750words.com and writes for Medium.

Nov 22 2019

53mins

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Ep. 816: A Trading Primer with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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A Trading Primer with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. Michael digs into the archive to remind us all about great trading.

Nov 18 2019

3hr 13mins

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Ep. 815: Mark Minervini Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Mark Minervini shares his time-tested approach for bringing your personal best to everything you do. Whether you are in business, stock trading, sports, or even training for the Olympics, Mindset Secrets for Winning reveals everything you need to know to perform at the highest level, and succeed at realizing your dreams. Mark shares his “secret” Empowerment Principles that propelled him from a junior-high school dropout to a multimillionaire Wall Street sensation. His incredible journey is one of the most amazing success stories in America. Inside this book, Mark reveals the technology and tools that you can use immediately to CREATE YOUR OWN SUCCESS and ACHIEVE YOUR GOALS. Transform your thinking with strategies used by world-class athletes and coaches, elite performers in business, and exceptional winners from all around the world. Develop a winning mindset and ACE EVERY CHALLENGE! Inspiration, knowledge and real-life experience – everything is here in the ultimate personal empowerment guide to human excellence. Mark Minervini is one of America’s most successful stock traders. He’s a former U.S. Investing Champion and the author of the international best-sellers Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard and Think and Trade Like a Champion. Mark’s journey from rags-to-riches is a remarkable and inspiring success story. His success, books and performance coaching have become legendary around the world.

Nov 15 2019

47mins

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Ep. 814: Gregory Zuckerman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Jim Simons is the greatest money maker in modern financial history. No other investor–Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Ray Dalio, Steve Cohen, or George Soros–can touch his record. Since 1988, Renaissance’s signature Medallion fund has generated average annual returns of 66 percent. The firm has earned profits of more than $100 billion; Simons is worth twenty-three billion dollars.

Drawing on unprecedented access to Simons and dozens of current and former employees, Zuckerman, a veteran Wall Street Journal investigative reporter, tells the gripping story of how a world-class mathematician and former code breaker mastered the market. Simons pioneered a data-driven, algorithmic approach that’s sweeping the world.

As Renaissance became a market force, its executives began influencing the world beyond finance. Simons became a major figure in scientific research, education, and liberal politics. Senior executive Robert Mercer is more responsible than anyone else for the Trump presidency, placing Steve Bannon in the campaign and funding Trump’s victorious 2016 effort. Mercer also impacted the campaign behind Brexit.

The Man Who Solved the Market is a portrait of a modern-day Midas who remade markets in his own image, but failed to anticipate how his success would impact his firm and his country. It’s also a story of what Simons’s revolution means for the rest of us.

Gregory Zuckerman is the author of The Greatest Trade Ever and The Frackers, and is a Special Writer at the Wall Street Journal. At the Journal, Zuckerman writes about financial firms, personalities and trades, as well as hedge funds and other investing and business topics. He’s a three-time winner of the Gerald Loeb award, the highest honor in business journalism. Zuckerman also appears regularly on CNBC, Fox Business and other networks and radio stations around the globe.

Nov 11 2019

50mins

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Ep. 813: Joan Wiliams Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Around the world, populist movements are gaining traction among the white working class. Meanwhile, members of the professional elite―journalists, managers, and establishment politicians–are on the outside looking in, left to argue over the reasons. In White Working Class, Joan C. Williams, described as having “something approaching rock star status” by the New York Times, explains why so much of the elite’s analysis of the white working class is misguided, rooted in class cluelessness.

Williams explains that many people have conflated “working class” with “poor”–but the working class is, in fact, the elusive, purportedly disappearing middle class. They often resent the poor and the professionals alike. But they don’t resent the truly rich, nor are they particularly bothered by income inequality. Their dream is not to join the upper middle class, with its different culture, but to stay true to their own values in their own communities–just with more money. While white working-class motivations are often dismissed as racist or xenophobic, Williams shows that they have their own class consciousness.

White Working Class is a blunt, bracing narrative that sketches a nuanced portrait of millions of people who have proven to be a potent political force. For anyone stunned by the rise of populist, nationalist movements, wondering why so many would seemingly vote against their own economic interests, or simply feeling like a stranger in their own country, White Working Class will be a convincing primer on how to connect with a crucial set of workers–and voters.

Joan C. Williams is Distinguished Professor of Law and Hastings Foundation Chair at the University of California, Hastings College of the Law.

Nov 08 2019

52mins

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Ep. 812: The Art of Not Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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The Art of Not Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 04 2019

22mins

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Ep. 811: Tara Swart Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Tara Swart, neuroscientist and Senior Lecturer at MIT, reveals the surprising science that supports The Law of Attraction as an effective tool for self-discovery and offers a guide to discovering your authentic self to access your best life now.

Self-help books like The Secret show us that if we can tap into “The Law of Attraction,” we have the power to change our destiny simply by reshaping our mind. Millions of people have used the ancient systems of manifestation and visualization to find health, success, love, friendship, wealth, and more. But does the “Law of Attraction” actually work? And more important, is this kind of life-changing philosophy within reach for everyone, even the most skeptical among us?

Tara Swart shows us if we can strip away our skepticism, these ancient tools of manifestation and visualization are fundamentally powerful and incredibly effective at freeing us of self-limiting behaviors and propelling us toward our truest, most authentic selves. Swart reveals how and why these systems actually work by offering the latest breakthroughs in neuroscience and behavioral psychology, including lessons in neuroplasticity, magneticism, emotional and logical thinking, and even hydration, self-care, and relaxation. Next, she describes her own journey from skeptic to believer, and guides readers through the scientific breakthroughs and personal revelations that changed her from an unhappy, close-minded, and disconnected woman wanting more from life, to a successful entrepreneur living with confidence, purpose, and joy.

The truth is, most of the things we want—health, happiness, wealth, love—are governed by our ability to think, feel, and act—in other words, by our brain. Dr. Swart combines the insights and inspiration of The Secret with the practical lessons of The Master Key System to help a new generation fulfill their dreams. The Source is a rigorous, proven toolkit for unlocking our minds—and reaching our fullest potential.

Nov 01 2019

52mins

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Ep. 810: We Work and SoftBank and Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael digs into We Work and SoftBank for an outside the box lesson on Trend Following Radio.

Oct 28 2019

23mins

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Ep. 809: Melanie Katzman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Technology has enabled us to be more interconnected today than ever before. So why do so many of us feel isolated and undervalued at work? Why does it feel like something is missing? It doesn’t have to be this way. In these rapidly changing, challenging times, how do we―YOU―develop the intuition, self-awareness, and interpersonal agility required to prosper?

Here’s what we’ve lost track of: organizations are run by people, and people run on emotions. Strong relationships are the bedrock of lasting success, meaning, and joy at work. In this life-changing guide, Dr. Melanie Katzman shows an impactful approach to connect first as fellow humans, then as coworkers and colleagues, to forge the deep bonds that make a significant difference. Learn how to:

• Establish respect and make others feel valued • Engage all of your senses to create a truly inclusive culture • Become popular and be the person everyone wants to work with • Grow loyalty by making it about them―your coworkers • Resolve conflicts by remaining curious and open with others • Fight fear (and prepare for the future) by stepping outside your comfort zone and experimenting with new ideas • Have a big impact by leveraging your platform, living your values, and leading the change

Melanie Katzman, PhD, is a business psychologist, advisor, and consultant to the world’s top public and private companies, as well as governmental and nonprofit institutions. As the founder of Katzman Consulting, she is a sought-after expert in executive development, group dynamics, and leadership diversity, and has worked with businesses―including Accenture, Bain Consulting, Goldman Sachs, MTV, PwC, and Viacom―in 31 countries.

Oct 25 2019

50mins

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Ep. 808: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Michael talk all things trend following today using Niels’ podcast as the starting point for discussion.

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is Managing Director of DUNN Capital (Europe). DUNN Capital (Europe) is a Swiss entity with which DUNN has an exclusive consulting agreement to perform business development for DUNN’s programs in Europe. Niels has been in the managed futures business since 1990, holding management positions at several leading CTAs: GNI Fund Management, Chesapeake, Beach Capital and Rho Asset Management, the last two of which he co-founded. He is the founder and host of the podcast Top Traders Unplugged.

Oct 21 2019

54mins

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Ep. 807: Laurie Santos Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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You might think you know what it takes to lead a happier life… more money, a better job, or Instagram-worthy vacations. You’re dead wrong. Yale professor Dr. Laurie Santos has studied the science of happiness and found that many of us do the exact opposite of what will truly make our lives better. Based on the psychology course she teaches at Yale–the most popular class in the university’s 300-year history–Laurie takes Michael through the latest scientific research and shares some surprising and inspiring stories that will change the way we all think about happiness.

Bio: Laurie Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive science at Yale University. She is also the Director of Yale’s Comparative Cognition Laboratory, Director of Yale’s Canine Cognition Lab, and the Head of Yale residential college Silliman College. She has been a featured TED speaker, and has been listed in Popular Science Magazine as one of their “Brilliant 10” young minds in 2007, and in Time magazine as a “Leading Campus Celebrity” in 2013. In January 2018, her course titled, “Psychology and the Good Life” became the most popular course in Yale’s history, with approximately one-fourth of Yale’s undergraduates enrolled.

Oct 18 2019

45mins

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Ep. 806: Vitaliy Katsenelson Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Vitaliy Katsenelson and Michael engage in a conversation that starts with a discussion of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck by Mark Manson.

Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates. While his primary focus is on discovering under-valued companies for his clients, he is also known for his uncommon common sense, which he has regularly expressed in articles in the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg Businessweek, the Christian Science Monitor, Institutional Investor, and the New York Post, among other outlets. He speaks frequently to investment groups around the world, and was most recently profiled in Barron’s. Previously, he was an adjunct faculty member at the University of Colorado Graduate School of Business, and he is also the author of Active Value Investing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck
  • Active Value Investing
  • The Little Book of Sideways Markets: How to Make Money in Markets that Go Nowhere

Oct 14 2019

43mins

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Ep. 805: Allison Schrager Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Is it worth swimming in shark-infested waters to surf a 50-foot, career-record wave?

Is it riskier to make an action movie or a horror movie?

Should sex workers forfeit 50 percent of their income for added security or take a chance and keep the extra money?

Most people wouldn’t expect an economist to have an answer to these questions–or to other questions of daily life, such as who to date or how early to leave for the airport. But those people haven’t met Allison Schrager, an economist and award-winning journalist who has spent her career examining how people manage risk in their lives and careers.

Whether we realize it or not, we all take risks large and small every day. Even the most cautious among us cannot opt out–the question is always which risks to take, not whether to take them at all. What most of us don’t know is how to measure those risks and maximize the chances of getting what we want out of life.

In An Economist Walks into a Brothel, Schrager equips readers with five principles for dealing with risk, principles used by some of the world’s most interesting risk takers. For instance, she interviews a professional poker player about how to stay rational when the stakes are high, a paparazzo in Manhattan about how to spot different kinds of risk, horse breeders in Kentucky about how to diversify risk and minimize losses, and a war general who led troops in Iraq about how to prepare for what we don’t see coming.

When you start to look at risky decisions through Schrager’s new framework, you can increase the upside to any situation and better mitigate the downside.

Bio: Allison Schrager is an economist, journalist at Quartz, and co-founder of LifeCycle Finance Partners, LLC, a risk advisory firm. Allison diversified her career by working in finance, policy, and media. She led retirement product innovation at Dimensional Fund Advisors and consulted to international organizations, including the OECD and IMF.

Oct 11 2019

41mins

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Ep. 804: Larry Hite Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael talks with Larry Hite about his first book The Rule.

It's the empowering story of Larry Hite’s unlikely rise to the top of the hedge fund world―with critical insights and lessons you can take to the bank Larry recounts his working-class upbringing in Brooklyn as a dyslexic, partially blind kid who was anything but a model student―and how he went on to found and run Mint Investment Management Company, one of the most profitable and largest quantitative hedge funds in the world. Hite’s wild success is based on his deep understanding that markets are flawed―just like people. Through his early-life struggles and failures, Hite came to know himself well―his fears, his frustrations, his self-doubt, and his tolerance for all of the above. This motivational book reveals that by accepting the facts of his life and of himself, he was able to accept markets as they are. And that was the key to his success. You’ll walk of the footsteps of an investing legend, who imparts smart, practical trading lessons throughout the journey. Making a successful living in trading isn’t about beating the markets. It’s about meeting markets where they are, embracing the fact of risk, knowing yourself, and playing it strictly by the numbers. The Rule shows that investing decisions are not only bets or gambles, but investments in time, energy, and attention. By focusing on realistic returns on your investments―versus what you expect or hope to get―you immediately improve your probability for success.

***

Larry Hite was the founding principal and Managing Director of Mint Investment Management Company. During his 13-year tenure at Mint, the composite of funds achieved a compounded annual rate of return greater than 30% before fees during that period. Hite pioneered the use of the “guaranteed fund” concept, which helped Mint be the first to raise over $1 billion.

Oct 07 2019

1hr 1min

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Ep. 803: Rita McGrath Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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The first prescriptive, innovative guide to seeing inflection points before they happen—and how to harness these disruptive influences to give your company a strategic advantage.

Paradigmatic shifts in the business landscape, known as inflection points, can either create new, entrepreneurial opportunities (see Amazon and Netflix) or they can lead to devastating consequences (e.g., Blockbuster and Toys R Us). Only those leaders who can “see around corners”–that is, spot the disruptive inflection points developing before they hit–are poised to succeed in this market.

Columbia Business School Professor and corporate consultant Rita McGrath contends that inflection points, though they may seem sudden, are not random. Every seemingly overnight shift is the final stage of a process that has been subtly building for some time. Armed with the right strategies and tools, smart businesses can see these inflection points coming and use them to gain a competitive advantage. Seeing Around Corners is the first hands-on guide to anticipating, understanding, and capitalizing on the inflection points shaping the marketplace.

McGrath is a globally recognized expert on strategy, innovation, and growth with an emphasis on corporate entrepreneurship. A long-time member of the Columbia Business School faculty, she is recognized consistently as one of the top 10 management thinkers. McGrath’s best-selling book The End of Competitive Advantage: How to Keep Your Strategy Moving as Fast as Your Business was recognized by Strategy+Business as the #1 business book of 2013. She is also a co-author of MarketBusters: 40 Strategic Moves that Drive Exceptional Business Growth (2005) and The Entrepreneurial Mindset (2000).

Oct 04 2019

47mins

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