Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro discuss how the Chinese view Trump, fresh from Mark's trip to China, and how the Big Lebowski explains the Helsinki Summit.Bookshelf:François Godement:Trump cannot bring Europe and China together (https://buff.ly/2Lenli8)The Trump opportunity: Chinese perceptions of the US administration (https://buff.ly/2LztXDI)Doreen Baingana: Tongues of fire. (Forthcoming)Kori Schake & Jeremy Shapiro: How the Big Lebowski Explains the Helsinki Summit and the International Order (https://buff.ly/2zWMM2n)TV stand:Bobby Kennedy for President (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io3uQ6Q4NlU)The Big Lebowski (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQl5aYhkF3E)Tell us what's on your bookshelf, and why! Each episode, Mark Leonard will pick the most interesting ones to present. To submit, write to mark.leonard@ecfr.eu.

ECFR's director Mark Leonard checks in with ECFR's Policy Fellows Ulrike Franke and Ellie Geranmayeh after the first day of the Munich Security Conference 2018. They discuss the hot topics so far - European defence, the end of the liberal order and technology - and give an outlook on the more explosive discussions related to the Middle East that will be discussed on Sunday.The podcast was recorded on Friday, 16 February 2018.BookshelfMunich Security Report 2018: To the Brink - and BackMSC2018 Opening Statements by Ursula von der Leyen and Florence ParlyJim Walsh: Why North Korea and Iran get accused of nuclear collusionFranklin Foren: World Without Mind - The Existential Threat of Big TechPicture: MSC / Kuhlmann

Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro review the year gone by and predict the 10 foreign policy trends that will define 2018.Picture: Pixabay/Geralt https://pixabay.com/en/users/geralt-9301/

Mark Leonard speaks with ECFR's Ellie Geranmayeh, Ilan Goldberg, head of the MENA programme at the Centre for New American Security, and Nasser Haiden, Professor of Political Science at Teheran University, about the JCPOA and whether Trump will pull out of the deal.Bookshelf:The Sympathizer by Viet Thanh Nguyen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_SympathizerSnow by Orhan Pamuk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_(Pamuk_novel)A Saudi Prince’s Quest to Remake the Middle East by Dexter Filkins https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-eastPicture: Tea Party Patriots Stop the Iran Nuclear Deal IMG 4650 by Elvert Barnes https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tea_Party_Patriots_Stop_the_Iran_Nuclear_Deal_IMG_4650_(21277938456).jpg [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

The postwar liberal order has weakened whilst liberal democracy appears fragile and polarised. Mark Leonard speaks with Professor John Ikenberry from Princeton University about the decline of faith in democracy and whether Europe can save the world order.Bookshelf: Richard Cobden, The Apostle Of Free Trade: His Political Career And Public ServicesCan Europe save the world order? by Anthony Dworkin and Mark LeonardPicture credits: President Trump and EU leaders by US Mission to the European Union at https://useu.usmission.gov/70th-anniversary-marshall-plan/trump-eu/, CC-BY-3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Mark Leonard speaks with Shoshana Fine, Tom Nuttall, Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, and Patrycja Sasnal about the UN’s GCM, and whether it matters that some European countries haven’t signed it. The podcast was recorded on 12 December 2018.Bookshelf:Go, went, gone by Jenny Erpenbeck https://www.amazon.co.uk/Go-Went-Gone-Jenny-Erpenbeck/dp/1846276209How Democracies Die by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/562246/how-democracies-die-by-steven-levitsky-and-daniel-ziblatt/9781524762933/ Security at the Borders: Transnational Practices and Technologies in West Africa by Philippe M. Frowd https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/security-at-the-borders/4F392EE06A6B27A2E531C388C86B73E6Revolution Of Hope: Toward a Humanized Technology by Erich Fromm https://www.amazon.co.uk/Revolution-Hope-Toward-Humanized-Technology/dp/159056183XDistant love by Ulrich Beck and Elisabeth Beck-Gernsheim https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Distant+Love-p-9780745661803 Picture credit: The main entrance to the Global Compact for Migration Conference in Marrakech, Morocco, by UN Photo/Abdelouahed Tajani via UN News https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/12/1028251, Copyright guidelines https://www.unmultimedia.org/photo/guidelines.jsp.

Mark Leonard speaks with Oksana Antonenko, Director for Global Political risk Analysis at Control Risks, and ECFR Turkey experts Asli Aydintasbas and Almut Moeller about the current crisis in Turkey. The podcast was recorded on 31 August 2018.Bookshelf:To Go Forward, Turkey Must Look Back by Daron Acemoglu https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-30/to-go-forward-turkey-must-look-backNotes on a Foreign Country: An American Abroad in a Post-American World by Suzy Hansen https://www.amazon.co.uk/Notes-Foreign-Country-American-Post-American/dp/0374280045The House of Government: A Saga of the Russian Revolution by Yuri Slezkine https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11056.htmlEast West Street: On the Origins of "Genocide" and "Crimes against Humanity" by Philippe Sands https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227917/east-west-street-by-philippe-sands/9780525433729/Podcast "Stimmenfang" - Sachsen, wir müssen reden! http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/chemnitz-warum-hat-sachsen-ein-problem-mit-rechter-gewalt-a-1225686.htmlPicture credit: After coup nightly demonstartion of president Erdogan supporters by Mstyslav Chernov, via Wikipedia https://ga.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%8Domh%C3%A1:After_coup_nightly_demonstartion_of_president_Erdogan_supporters._Istanbul,_Turkey,_Eastern_Europe_and_Western_Asia._22_July,2016.jpg, CC-BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en.

Mark Leonard speaks with Simon Kuper, Tara Varma and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil about the Yellow Vest Movement, and whether it is only a French phenomenon. The podcast was recorded on 21 March 2019. EU Radio is now also broadcasting this podcast on Tuesdays at 7pm and Wednesdays at 9am CET every week. You can listen to the station at www.euradio.fr.Bookshelf: Sur le fil de l'asile by Pasquale Brice https://livre.fnac.com/a10913324/Pascal-Brice-Sur-le-fil-de-l-asileHarcelées by Astrid de Villaines https://www.amazon.fr/Harcel%C3%A9es-Astrid-VILLAINES/dp/2259276563Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain by Fintan O’Toole https://www.amazon.co.uk/Heroic-Failure-Brexit-Politics-Pain/dp/1789540984Twilight of the Elites: Prosperity, the Periphery, and the Future of France by Christophe Guilluy & Malcolm DeBevoise https://guardianbookshop.com/twilight-of-the-elites-9780300233766.html?utm_source=editoriallink&utm_medium=merch&utm_campaign=articleThe 2019 European Election: How anti-Europeans plan to wreck European and what can be done to stop it by Susi Dennison and Pawel Zerka https://www.ecfr.eu/specials/scorecard/the_2019_European_electionWhy Viktor Orbán and his allies won’t win the EU elections by Ivan Krastev https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_viktor_orban_and_his_allies_wont_win_the_eu_electionsWill the yellow vests movement spread across Europe? by Tara Varma https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_will_the_yellow_vests_movement_spread_across_europeUnlock Europe’s majority https://www.ecfr.eu/europeanpower/unlockSecrets of the populist playbookHow a new breed of political strategist paved the way for Trump and Orbán by Simon Kuper https://www.ft.com/content/5bd32460-4521-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3Picture credit: Gilets Jaunes by Ella87 via Pixabay https://pixabay.com/fr/photos/gilets-jaunes-manifestation-3854259/, CC0 – 1.0 https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

Mark Leonard speaks with Silvia Francescon and Nathalie Tocci about the brewing political crisis in Italy and what impact this could have on Europe as a whole.Image credit: Italian Parliament Building / Italienisches Parlamentsgebäude by Marco Verch, via Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/30478819@N08/35553467263, CC-BY-2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Mark Leonard speaks with Iran expert Ellie Geranmayeh about what might happen after Donald Trump has decided to withdraw US support from the deal. The podcast was recorded on 10 May 2018.Bookshelf:After Trump’s Iran decision: Time for Europe to step up by Ellie GeranmayehPicture credit: Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore via flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/27151950503, CC by SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Anthony Dworkin steps in for Mark Leonard and speaks with Almut Möller, Manuel Lafont Rapnouil and Tom Nuttall about how significant the new treaty of friendship between France and Germany is. The podcast was recorded on the 17 January 2019.Bookshelf:Iron Kingdom by Christopher Clark https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/261/26185/iron-kingdom/9780140293340.htmlWir sind ja nicht zum Spaß hier: Reportagen, Satiren und andere Gebrauchstexte by Deniz Yügel https://www.amazon.de/sind-nicht-Spa%C3%9F-hier-Gebrauchstexte/dp/3960540736La Faiblesse du vrai: Ce que la post-vérité fait à notre monde commun byMyriam Revault d'Allonnes http://www.seuil.com/ouvrage/la-faiblesse-du-vrai-myriam-revault-d-allonnes/9782021383041Sabbath's Theater by Philip Roth https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/103/1037630/sabbath-s-theater/9780099582014.htmlWarnings From Versailles: The Lessons of 1919, a Hundred Years OnBy Margaret MacMillan https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/2019-01-08/warnings-versaillesPicture credit: Official portrait and opening ceremony Emmanuel Macron (President of France) and Angela Merkel (Federal Chancellor of Germany) by NATO via https://www.flickr.com/photos/nato/43344877991, CC-by-NC-ND 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/

In the final episode of our special summer series on European strategic sovereignty, regular host Mark Leonard is joined by two of ECFR’s own experts: research director Jeremy Shapiro and Senior Policy Fellow and head of the Paris office Tara Varma. Topic of discussion is research led by Ulrike Franke and Tara Varma looking at how Europeans from all of the different EU member states see strategic autonomy. Is the idea of strategic sovereignty owned by the French? If it is, does French ownership pose a problem for the acceptance of the idea? What is the military component of European strategic sovereignty? What role is there for the UK after Brexit? These are some of the questions they discuss. The paper that is referred to can be found here: https://www.ecfr.eu/specials/scorecard/independence_play_europes_pursuit_of_strategic_autonomy This podcast was recorded on Friday, August 30, 2019. Picture retrieved from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Emmanuel_Macron_and_Angela_Merkel_(Frankfurter_Buchmesse_2017).jpgPublic domain.

In the first in our mini-series on the events of 1989, host Mark Leonard is joined by very special guest Timothy Garton Ash, historian and Professor of European Studies at Oxford University. This series considers how 1989 and it's events will shape our world in the future. Was 1989 the greatest year in European history? How much of what is going on was a blip? Are we witnessing the decline of liberalism today? Ash provides insights into the course of our political history, but cautions on prescribing a course to our future. The neglect of solidarity, identity and community as part of the development of the European Union project has led to a hollowing out of European identity. Global challenges and populism put the future of the liberal democratic world into question, unless answers are found.This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2019.Bookshelf:The Light that Failed: A Reckoning, by Ivan Krastev and Stephen HolmesThe Power of the Powerless, by Václav Havel

Mark Leonard speaks with Tomas Valasek and Nick Witney about what the real military dependence of Europeans on America looks like and what is possible within the existing security budget. The podcast was recorded on 26 July 2018.Picture credit: EATT14 DV Day by European Defence Agency via Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/eudefenceagency/14557213832/in/album-72157645478881825/, CC-BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/.

ECFR’s director Mark Leonard discusses the launch of PESCO, the latest collective European defence initiative with Senior Policy Fellow Nick Witney and Policy Fellow, Ulrike Franke.The podcast was recorded on 24th November 2017.Bookshelf:George Orwell, Homage to CataloniaPeter Wilson, The Holy Roman EmpireNick Witney, Re-energising Europe's Security and Defence Policy: www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/re_energising_europes_security_and_defence_policyNick Witney, EU defence efforts miss the open goal again: www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_eu_defence_efforts_miss_the_open_goal_againECFR New Security Initiative essay collection: www.ecfr.eu/europeanpower/specials/new_european_security_initiative

Highlights of the Munich Security Conference 2019Directly from the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, Mark Leonard, Ulrike Franke and Jonathan Hackenbroich share their post-conference insights. They discuss the speeches by German chancellor Angela Merkel, US vice-president Mike Pence, and Britain’s defence secretary Gavin Williamson, and talk about their favourite side-events. Bookshelf:* Munich Security Report 2019 "The Great Puzzle: Who Will Pick Up the Pieces?"https://www.securityconference.de/publikationen/munich-security-report/* La ruée vers l'Europe : La jeune Afrique en route pour le Vieux Continent by Stephen Smithhttps://www.grasset.fr/la-ruee-vers-leurope-9782246803508* The Long Way to a Small, Angry Planet by Becky Chambershttps://www.hodder.co.uk/books/detail.page?isbn=9781473619777* The Light that Failed: How the West Won the Cold War But Lost the Peace by Ivan Krastev & Stephen Holmes (forthcoming September 2019)The podcast was recorded on Sunday, 17 February 2017.Picture: MSC / Kuhlmann

‘Tis the season! ...when Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro review the year gone by and predict 10 foreign policy trends (plus two bonus ones) that will define 2020, the beginning of a new decade. With a score of 6.5/10 they couldn’t sustain last year’s success but can still pat themselves on their backs - or what do you think? Let us know about your foreign policy predictions for the upcoming year. Comment below or e-mail us! Bookshelf:- Ten Foreign Policy Trends for 2020 by Mark Leonard & Jeremy Shapiro - Mapping European Leverage in the MENA region by the ECFR MENA Programme: https://www.ecfr.eu/specials/mapping_eu_leverage_menaThis podcast was recorded on 16 December 2019.

Mark Leonard speaks with Erica Moret and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil about European sanctions policies, secondary sanctions and counter measures. The podcast was recorded on the 27 September 2018.Bookshelf:Keeping Europe Safe after Brexit - Findings of a reflection group led by Marta Dassù, Wolfgang Ischinger, Pierre Vimont, and Robert Cooper. Edited by Susi Dennison https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/keeping_europe_safe_after_brexitCassandra by Christa Wolf https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cassandra-Christa-Wolf/dp/1907970118Un publicista en apuros by Natalia Moret https://www.amazon.com/publicista-en-apuros-Spanish-ebook/dp/B0094MIMQOWhy Europe should focus on its growing interdependence with Africa by Jeremy Cliffe https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/09/22/why-europe-should-focus-on-its-growing-interdependence-with-africaLa Rue vers L’Europe by Stephen Smith https://www.amazon.com/RUE-VERS-LEUROPE-STEPHEN-SMITH/dp/2246803500Image credit: Reimposing Certain Sanctions with Respect to Iran by White House/Shealah Craighead, via https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-reimposition-united-states-sanctions-respect-iran/, CC-BY-3.0 https://www.whitehouse.gov/copyright/

Today, 100 years ago, the Versailles Contract went into effect which established the League of the Nations and laid the foundations for multilateralism. In 2019, Germany and France launched the Alliance for Multilateralism aiming at showing that countries still "support multilateralism and support the United Nations (to) remain the majority in the world," as French Foreign Minister Le Drian said. Planning to establish a network of countries ready to join forces and efforts on inequality or climate change, the Alliance also wants the members to strongly commit to a rules-based international order. But how will this look like in reality? Christoph Heusgen, Permanent Representative of Germany to the United Nations, explains to Mark Leonard some concrete measures and how the old tale of the German-Franco friendship still serves as a role model for other countries for how to overcome decades of conflicts and rivalry. Further information: www.multilateralism.orgThis podcast was recorded on 3 December 2019. Bookshelf:• The Universal Declaration of Human Rights

North Macedonia and Albania wanted to start negotiations with the EU after having been candidate countries since 2005 and 2014. But the enlargement plans seemed to have stalled especially after opposition from France. Host Mark Leonard is joined by Susi Dennison, José Ignacio Torreblanca and Vessela Tcherneva to get to the bottom of things and the divisions particularly between France and Germany on this issue.Bookshelf:- "The Age of Surveillance Capitalism" by Shoshana Zuboff- "Spring" by Ali Smith - "The light that failed" by Ivan Krastev & Stephen Holmes - "State of the Union" Miniseries on BBC TwoThe podcast as recorded on 17 October 2019.Picture (c) JLogan|Wikipedia