Rank #1: Surveillance: Fed's Balancing Act With Hornbach
Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Macro Strategy, says bond markets are caught between a fiscal rock and a QE hard place. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says she sees the risk of another dip towards EUR/USD 1.08 in the coming weeks. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says we are looking at several weeks of uncertainty in regards to when the economy will re-open. Bill Smead, CIO of Smead capital Management recaps Airline stocks in sharp decline as Warren Buffett Exits Positions. Josh Sharfstein, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health Vice Dean for Public Health Practice and Community Engagement discusses the the coronavirus curve in the U.S.
May 04 2020
Rank #2: Globalization in the Trump Era with Dr. Posen
Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says 3% growth is not sustainable. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says a lack of budget discipline is considered to be negative for a currency. Michael Holland, Holland & Co. Chairman and Founder, says the best time to sell is when the markets are enthusiastic. Vanessa Friedman, New York Times Fashion Director & Chief Fashion Critic, and Robert Burke, Robert Burke Associates Chairman & CEO, review New York Fashion Week and the state of luxury retail.
Feb 16 2018
Rank #3: Surveillance: We Are Near The End Of The Cycle, Ruskin Says
Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Securities Managing Director & Chief International Strategist, says market participants seem to expect volatility to be sticky for a while. Luke Kawa, Bloomberg Cross-Asset Reporter, says markets are pricing in some kind of inflection point for the Fed over the next two years. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, defines the current situation of the U.K. as one of "chaos" and "rage". Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder, explains that technology is a deflationary force. Baroness Helena Kennedy, House of Lords Member, remarks that the Irish border question was not in the mind of the voters when the Brexit referendum took place.
Dec 11 2018
Rank #4: Most Americans Will Get Tax Cuts, Lieber Says
Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, likes the upward movement in yields but he doesn't trust it. Jon Lieber, PwC Washington National Tax Services Principal, doesn't think the Democrats will score points going after the deficit. David Miliband, International Rescue Committee President & CEO, says one of the phenomenons of globalization is people urbanizing, including refugees. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research LLC President & Founder, says the benefit of bitcoin right now is that it only has buyers.
Dec 20 2017
Rank #5: Surveillance: No End in Sight for Slowdown, Zingales Says
Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School Finance Professor, says the global slowdown is going to continue until Germany delivers a major fiscal package, which is unlikely to happen any time soon. Rosalind Mathieson, Bloomberg International Government Executive Editor, says Prime Minister Johnson will crash out if he gets a no-deal Brexit. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer & Co. Chief Investment Strategist, thinks that the demand for equities is likely to increase. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Global Markets Chief U.S. Economist, details the current growth scare saying, “it’s harder to attribute this growth scare to something transitory.” David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Host of Bloomberg's Peer to Peer Conversations, reflects on his conversation with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg who reiterated her belief in incremental justice.
Oct 02 2019
Rank #6: Fed Sent a Powerful Signal on Friday, Wessel Says
Chris Verrone, Strategas Research Partners Head of Technical Analysis, and Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Gadfly Columnist, take a close look at the market selloff. David Wessel, Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy Director, imagines that Fmr. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will continue to focus on labor markets in her work at Brookings. Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Public Policy Strategist, says it's unclear what both sides are willing to accept in NAFTA negotiations to keep the trade deficit down. Margie Patel, Wells Capital Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says earnings look pretty good for the rest of the year.
Feb 05 2018
Rank #7: Understand What You're Investing In, Rhodes Says
John Ryding, Founder of RDQ Economics, thinks the stimulus we're getting is pretty unprecedented. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, says we're getting a global lesson in comparative politics right now. Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Senior Economist, says to pay attention to the retail sales number. Bill Rhodes, Citigroup Former Vice Chairman, thinks some investors have gone overboard because they didn't want to be left out.
Feb 14 2018
Rank #8: Things Fall Apart (in the Markets), Gartman Says
James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist and International Wealth Management Division Americas CIO, thinks the market has been pricing in more policy than usual. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities and Research, says the reflation story really began in April 2016. John Hudak, Brookings Senior Fellow of Governance Studies, says a lot of government agencies have had hiring troubles. Dennis Gartman, Gartman Letter Economist, Editor & Publisher, says he's dismayed that the U.S. government can't get spending under control.
Feb 09 2018
Rank #9: Surveillance: New Political Focus After Mueller, Hormats Says
Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist & Portfolio Manager, says it's not improbable that interest rates will stay low until 2030. Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chair, thinks U.S. political focus will shift following the release of the Mueller's report. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, discusses the pressures that Xi Jinping confronts domestically. Doug Thornell, Former DNC Senior Adviser, says Democrats should keep the focus on kitchen table issues.
Mar 25 2019
Rank #10: Surveillance: Nominee Malpass's Vision For The World Bank
Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee members have much more independence than the members of the FOMC. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics, says it is tough days to be a forecaster at the BOE's MPC. David Malpass, World Bank President Nominee, is optimistic that more progress can be made on extreme poverty. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says fair value for the S&P is still a big higher than current levels.
Feb 07 2019
Rank #11: Surveillance: Stimulus in the market through repo , Misra says
Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, believes the U.S. and Iran must agree to a reasonable deal in order to ease protester tensions. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says the Fed has put a lot of stimulus in the system through the repo market. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Banks & Diversified Finance Research says as banks report earnings we expect to see net interest margin under pressure in 4Q. Doug Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum President & Former Director of the Congressional Budget Office says raising taxes and dodging the spending budget is bad news.
Jan 13 2020
Rank #12: Surveillance Special: Trump's Trade Tariffs
The news flow beckoned a bonus episode! Today, Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, says once you go down the tariffs road, it gets complicated. Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Professor says trade is not about winners and losers, it's win-win. Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman Senior Vice President of New York & Head of Currency, says a trade war is not easy to win and it is not desirable. Kerry Brown, Chatham House Associate Fellow in the Asia-Pacific Programme & Professor of Chinese Studies, thinks China was expecting this.
Mar 02 2018
Rank #13: 10-Yr to Hit 3% if Inflation Surprises, says Bory
George Bory, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Credit Strategy, sees the 10-year hitting 3% if we get an inflation surprise on Wednesday. Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center Budget and Policy Administration, says that politicians just haven't been able to resist spending. Robert Shiller, Yale Professor of Economics, believes efficient markets are a half-truth. Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Economic Adviser, doesn't think the correction is enough to derail the economy.
Feb 12 2018
Rank #14: Surveillance: The Economy is Dead, Schork Says
Marvin Loh, State Street Senior Global Market Strategist, says big tech stocks can maintain their competitive advantage. Rep. French Hill, Republican U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district, says that not having a functioning supply chain will affect every state in the U.S. Stephen Schork, The Schork Report Founder & Editor, says the economy is dead and that we are in a great depression. Joshua Sharfstein Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health Vice Dean for Public Health Practice and Community Engagement, explains the best way to interpret coronavirus studies as more start coming out. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor, says historically, societies affected by plagues have taken on nationalistic behaviors.
Apr 27 2020
Rank #15: Surveillance: Growth Composition Is Improving, Dutta Says
Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says there are very fundamental causes of low rates. Steven Cook, CFR Senior Fellow For Middle East And Africa Studies, says the U.S. can continue to fight terrorism without as large of a footprint in the Middle East. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says volatility stays low as prices advance. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of Economic Research, says the composition of growth is improving.
Jan 07 2020
Rank #16: Surveillance: Dollar Is Overvalued About 10%, Vamvakidis Says
Thanos Vamvakidis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Head of G10 FX Strategy, thinks the dollar is overvalued by about 10%. Tim Quinlan, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, says conversations at Jackson Hole may be more about the balance sheet than the Fed funds rate. Ken Simonson, NABE Survey Analyst & Associated General Contractors Chief Economist, reviews the NABE survey and notes that 91% of the respondents said tariffs are harmful to the economy. And Meenal Patel, JPMorgan Private Bank EMEA Head of FX, Commodities, and Rates, foresees a continuation of global growth.
Aug 20 2018
Rank #17: Surveillance: Apple's Disappointing Q2 With Munster
Gene Munster, Loup Ventures Managing Partner & Analyst, says Apple was the most at-risk large U.S. tech company for reporting a disappointing quarter due to the company’s hardware businesses and exposure to China. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor-in Chief, says most Americans are putting their trust in local officials to get them out of the economic hole caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, explains how the nature of the U.S.-China trade dispute will change because of the coronavirus outbreak. Michael Gapen, Barclays Chief U.S. Economist, says the U.S. unemployment rate may rise as high as 19% in April and remain elevated for several years. Dr. Andrew Pekosz, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, says he has a lot of hope for antibody testing.
May 01 2020
Rank #18: No Signs of Late Cycle Behavior, Eisman Says
Steve Eisman, Eisman Group Neuberger Bergman Senior Portfolio Manager, says the student loan problem is a U.S. government problem. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head Of Short-Term Portfolio Management and Funding, says they are no longer of the opinion that front-end rates are undervalued. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says on one level, Xi Jinping's decision to end presidential term limits was not surprising. Mike Mayo, Senior Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research, says J.P. Morgan's Investor Day yesterday was the most confident he's ever seen the bank.
Feb 28 2018
Rank #19: Surveillance: The U.S. Cannot Escape Global Slowdown, Mann Says
Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General, says he is not predicting a recession. Catherine Mann, Citi Research Global Chief Economist, says even the U.S. cannot escape the global slowdown. Gary Shilling, A. Gary Shilling President, says strong economic growth brings income polarization. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, says nobody is expecting a final deal between the U.S. and China by March 1.
Feb 11 2019
Rank #20: Surveillance: Recession Likely Within Year, Misra Says
Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, says a recession is very likely within the next 12 months. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, believes the core issue with the trade war is actually how it's affecting business confidence, capex and hiring. George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder and Chairman, explains why Beijing is deeply worried about Hong Kong protests. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist, analyzes global yield curves. And Brian Kelly, The Points Guy Founder, says it's unstable times for tourism in Hong Kong. ------
Aug 14 2019