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Investing

Eye On The Market

Updated 2 months ago

Business
Investing
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Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

Read more

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

iTunes Ratings

118 Ratings
Average Ratings
100
7
3
5
3

Great market synopsis

By Mrs. Prickles - Mar 31 2020
Read more
Thanks for your insights, research and candid views.

Honest and Independent

By MPWHIT - Dec 10 2019
Read more
I love this Podcast! Keep the episodes coming.

iTunes Ratings

118 Ratings
Average Ratings
100
7
3
5
3

Great market synopsis

By Mrs. Prickles - Mar 31 2020
Read more
Thanks for your insights, research and candid views.

Honest and Independent

By MPWHIT - Dec 10 2019
Read more
I love this Podcast! Keep the episodes coming.
Cover image of Eye On The Market

Eye On The Market

Latest release on Jul 29, 2020

Read more

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

Rank #1: Ghosts of Christmas Past

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Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.

Dec 31 2019

15mins

Play

Rank #2: Millions and Trillions

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Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

Feb 06 2020

17mins

Play

Rank #3: Lost in space: The search for democratic socialism in the real world

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Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Jun 24 2019

6mins

Play

Rank #4: Food fights at the Fed and in the Leveraged Loan market

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The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due to the erosion of covenants.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Jul 15 2019

9mins

Play

Rank #5: Trump tariffs in context

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In this episode, Michael Cembalest takes a look at the recent tariff announcements in the context of historical tariffs since 1900. While the tariffs are substantial for the industries affected, Michael explains why they may not move the needle for overall consumer prices or corporate profits. Please see the podcast video or visit jpmorgan.com/eotm for the slide referenced.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Jun 15 2018

5mins

Play

Rank #6: Berning Man

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An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.

Mar 05 2020

20mins

Play

Rank #7: The Arc and the Covenants

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Michael Cembalest takes a unique look at US states, cities, and counties using his signature comprehensive debt ratio. While municipalities have time to address underfunded obligations, some face difficult trade-offs. Legal precedent shows that bondholder losses exceed pensioner write-downs. Given complacent conditions in credit markets, this is a good time to review muni diversification. Read more: jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320745513818.pdf

*Please note this PDF is publicly available and issued through our Private Bank business.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

May 17 2018

9mins

Play

Rank #8: The room where it happens

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Michael recaps the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, and recaps his meetings in DC with a group of Congressmen to discuss debt, deficits and financial markets.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Jun 25 2018

8mins

Play

Rank #9: Rotten Tomatoes

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Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

Jan 17 2020

8mins

Play

Rank #10: Chinese handcuffs

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Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market. Topics include the underappreciated risks of Chinese retaliation against US companies doing business in China, and how a full-blown trade war and military conflict are far from inevitable given the greater economic linkages between the US and China compared to adversaries of the last 100 years. Also, some thoughts on emerging markets, Turkey and serial defaulter Argentina.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

May 29 2018

8mins

Play

Rank #11: The Late Show

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Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The Late Show. He considers why despite strong US earnings growth and global expansion, equity markets remain flattish in 2018. He tackles the drivers of somewhat muted equity returns by focusing on late-cycle investing, the Fed, and the factors affecting the path of interest rates (labor markets and the expanding budget deficit). Michael also discusses his views on the oil price recovery since 2016.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

May 08 2018

9mins

Play

Rank #12: America, First

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Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market: America, First. Michael reviews the strength of US equity markets so far this year in the context of fading fiscal and monetary stimulus, signs of fatigue in US tech stocks and potential ramifications of constitutional and trade concerns. Other topics include current dynamics in Italy and the US commercial real estate market.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Sep 03 2018

11mins

Play

Rank #13: War of the Worlds

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In this special holiday edition, Michael explains how an evening at home went awry: how a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.

Dec 04 2019

11mins

Play

Rank #14: The Armageddonists!

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The Armageddonists and the price of fame.

Nov 08 2019

10mins

Play

Rank #15: So Long Yellow Brick Road

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An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors

Sep 03 2019

10mins

Play

COVID Research: Charts of the Week

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US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd immunity.

Jul 29 2020

11mins

Play

Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap

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US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.

Jul 07 2020

11mins

Play

Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper

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While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.

Jun 29 2020

16mins

Play

Zoom Room

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In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

May 26 2020

15mins

Play

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

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An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

May 11 2020

13mins

Play

Covid-19 Update

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Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.

Apr 17 2020

8mins

Play

Man vs Nature

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Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.

Mar 29 2020

10mins

Play

COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets

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Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.

Mar 23 2020

12mins

Play

Berning Man

Podcast cover
Read more

An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.

Mar 05 2020

20mins

Play

Millions and Trillions

Podcast cover
Read more

Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

Feb 06 2020

17mins

Play

Rotten Tomatoes

Podcast cover
Read more

Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

Jan 17 2020

8mins

Play

Ghosts of Christmas Past

Podcast cover
Read more

Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.

Dec 31 2019

15mins

Play

War of the Worlds

Podcast cover
Read more

In this special holiday edition, Michael explains how an evening at home went awry: how a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.

Dec 04 2019

11mins

Play

The Armageddonists!

Podcast cover
Read more

The Armageddonists and the price of fame.

Nov 08 2019

10mins

Play

Warren Peace

Podcast cover
Read more

A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Oct 07 2019

10mins

Play

So Long Yellow Brick Road

Podcast cover
Read more

An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors

Sep 03 2019

10mins

Play

Food fights at the Fed and in the Leveraged Loan market

Podcast cover
Read more

The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due to the erosion of covenants.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Jul 15 2019

9mins

Play

Lost in space: The search for democratic socialism in the real world

Podcast cover
Read more

Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Jun 24 2019

6mins

Play

Listen when people tell you who they are

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Trump has been telling us who he is all along; I should have listened. A story in pictures.*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use.  https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm  © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Jun 04 2019

8mins

Play

Smoot Hardly

Podcast cover
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Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use.  jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

May 13 2019

11mins

Play

iTunes Ratings

118 Ratings
Average Ratings
100
7
3
5
3

Great market synopsis

By Mrs. Prickles - Mar 31 2020
Read more
Thanks for your insights, research and candid views.

Honest and Independent

By MPWHIT - Dec 10 2019
Read more
I love this Podcast! Keep the episodes coming.