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Top Traders Unplugged

Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com

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SI33: The positive effect of embracing volatility ft. Wayne Himelsein

This week, we invite special guest Wayne Himelsein onto the show from Logica Capital Advisers, in Los Angeles.  Wayne explains his journey into starting a Hedge Fund, some of the lessons he has learned over the years, and some of the rules that keep him from repeating past mistakes.  He describes why he loves Trend Following, why embracing ‘uncertainty’ can have a positive effect on Trading, and how he typically constructs a portfolio.  We also discuss why Wayne prefers long trades over short trades, how he uses Options, if stop-losses are a good idea, and if volatility has an effect on the size of his positions.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

1hr 51mins

29 Apr 2019

Rank #1

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SI81: Why simple ideas can often be more robust than complex ideas ft. Moritz Seibert

Today, we discuss the benefits of focusing on highly liquid markets, why Trend Following strategies are usually less risky & volatile in any market environment,  how simple ideas can often be more robust than complex ideas, whether there’s a place for discretion in trading systems, why a manager’s true aims may not be what you were are expecting, and how emotional intelligence disappears during times of stress.  Questions we answer include: Should I have fewer positions, and risk more per trade? How do you deal with a market’s sudden loss of liquidity? How does open equity affect upcoming position sizes?Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:21 – Macro recap from Niels05:57 – Weekly review of performance08:09 – Top Tweets41:53 – Francois: Question 1: How did you handle the huge drop in Oil?45:18 – Mike: Questions 2/3: How do you handle futures capacity constraints?  A large trend will likely attract many Trend Followers, how does this affect your position sizing?01:00:00 – James: Question 4: How do you deal with gap-downs in a market’s liquidity?01:01:31 – Dave: Question 5: How does open trade equity affect future position sizing?01:04:44 – Dante: Question 6: Should I use fewer positions & risk more per trade?01:11:08 – Benchmark performance update

1hr 16mins

28 Mar 2020

Rank #2

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SI29: Can Value Investing be applied to Gold? and Trend Following as a forecasting tool ft. Jesse Felder

In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast.  Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold.  We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him?  Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:50 – Weekly review of performance05:20 – Jesse reviews his background/influences08:00 – Jesse describes his process12:45 – Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market?19:30 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing25:40 – Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing28:00 – Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing30:10 – Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing34:40 – Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes36:50 – Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tailsBook reference: The Tao of Capital by Spitznagel40:10 – Jerry asks Jesse’s thoughts on TF as a tool benefitting diversification42:00 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on the market not broadly recognizing the evidence supporting Trend Following47:20 – Jerry/Jesse/Niels discuss forecasting and TF50:00 – Question from George: Why is knowing what’s happening fundamentally better than just responding to price (i.e. trend following)?56:20 – Niels asks Jesse’s view on Tesla01:00:20 – Moritz asks how Jesse spends a typical day01:01:30 – Niels asks what Jesse is reading now01:03:20 – Moritz asks about Jesse’s interests/hobbies01:04:40 – Niels asks about following Buffett/Munger and shifts in markets today01:08:45 – Niels asks if Jesse applies analog analysis to markets01:11:50 – Niels asks Jesse’s recommendations on things to read/listen to to learn about investing01:14:00 – Benchmark performance update

1hr 17mins

31 Mar 2019

Rank #3

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SI85: Similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020 ft. Nick Radge

Today, special guest Nick Radge joins us on the show to discuss similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020, the players behind the recent Oil volatility, the importance of avoiding trading paralysis, how to behave like a successful investor, developing different strategies for different market environments, how Nick fell in love with Trend Following from an early age, and more.  Questions we answer include: How do you incorporate risk management into your strategies?  What trading books do you recommend?Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Nick on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:05 – Macro recap from Niels04:04 – Weekly review of performance05:42 – Niels: For some context, tell us about little about your journey in trading so far.17:58 – Niels: How have you made Trend Following strategies work on stocks?22:48 – Niels: Why have you chosen to only trade equities on the long-side?34:21 – Niels: How do you operate your different types of trading systems?  Do you always run them at the same time?38:37 – Moritz: How do you help your clients today?48:29 – Moritz: Do your clients ever have enough impact on the market to cause you to adapt your systems?53:07 – Niels: Do you operate your US stocks portfolio the same as on Australian stocks?58:47 – Niels: Are the Australian equity markets liquid?01:00:53 – Niels: Why do you think the recent crash is similar to 1987?01:16:30 – Question 1: Michael; How do you incorporate Risk Management into your system?01:24:19 – Questions 2&3: Michael; How should I size positions for trades based on Moving Averages? Can you recommend any Trading books, especially related to Risk Management?01:30:40 – Benchmark performance update

1hr 35mins

25 Apr 2020

Rank #4

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SI89: Trend Following EFTs and Asness vs Taleb ft. Rufus Rankin

We’re joined by special guest, Rufus Rankin of Ampersand Investment Management, to discuss Trend Following ETFs, the definition of a truly diversified portfolio, flat-fees versus performance-based fees,  how to choose between different managers, learning from Q1 2020, predicting CTA returns, and the recent public spat between Cliff Asness & Nassim Taleb. Questions we answer include: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in client interest after this year’s stock market crash? What non-USA or Europe markets are CTAs currently interested in?Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:26 – Macro recap from Niels04:06 – Weekly review of performance07:20 – Niels: How what was your journey into this industry?08:57 – Niels: How did you end up allocating capital to CTAs?10:05 – Niels: Do you view Trend Following as a philosophy?12:50 – Niels: What are your thoughts about truly diversified portfolios?17:28 – Moritz; If we can’t forecast CTA returns, do you think we should allocate capital to as many CTAs as possible?20:02 – Niels: What percent of a whole portfolio would you recommend to Trend Following, and what would investors be comfortable with?19:02 – Moritz; Do you only allocate to Trend Following CTAs?22:41 – Moritz; Do you consider yourselves to be a ‘fund of funds’?23:11 – Moritz; How do you handle client pressure surrounding double-layering of fees?24:17 – Niels: Who do you think drives the demand for flat-fees, rather than performance-based fees?26:03 – Niels: What do you think of cheap Trend Following replication products versus full-cost, long-established, Trend Following funds?30:16 – Moritz: Do you still think CTAs are worth their performance fees?32:30 – Niels: How do you choose between different managers?35:19 – Moritz: When do you stop adding CTAs to your portfolio, for diversification?37:15 – Moritz: How do you gain exposure to your chosen CTAs?38:44 – Niels: How has 2020 been for you so far?40:09 – Niels: What are some of the things you learned from Q1 2020?42:52 – Moritz: How has machine learning added value during Q1 2020?44:41 – Question 1; Michael: Have you ever considered creating a Trend Following ETF?48:49 – Niels: Would Trend Following ETFs be required to disclose the rules of the strategies?44:41 – Questions 2&3; Brian: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in investor interest, post the 2020 market crash? What non-USA or EU markets are CTAs currently interested in?53:31 – Benchmark performance update

58mins

24 May 2020

Rank #5

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TTU111: Alignment of Interest ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 2of2

“We do two of the hardest styles of investing that I am aware of.” – Alan Sheen (Tweet)Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I continue our conversation with Alan Sheen, talking about how and why he designed Dalton Street Capital’s investment strategy the way he did, and how it has performed compared to the market average over the past three years. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Alan’s strategies are different from traditional managed futures, his managerial approach that enables employees to innovate, and what an investor should ask a potential manager when doing their due diligence.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Alan developed a hedging strategy based on volatility and liquidityThe connection between the Australian and US marketsWhy Alan does not trade in US markets in his intra-day strategyWhy Dalton Street Capital focuses on Australiasian markets“Our managed futures have had a very similar experience to most managed futures – we’ve been flat to down over the last three years. But what has dragged us through these last three years is that equity exposure.” – Alan Sheen (Tweet)Where Dalton Street Capital’s return profile comes fromWhy Alan also trades in medium to long-term trend followingHow Dalton Street Capital’s equity portfolio performs against the market averageAlan’s perspective on model decay“If you’re not going to invest the way we do in a systematic manner, good luck with anything else because it’s not repeatable.” – Alan Sheen (Tweet)Why alignment of interest is important in an investment strategyHow Alan approaches market researchWhat questions should investors be asking themselves“Model decay occurs significantly in strategies that are risk based and not behavioral.” – Alan Sheen (Tweet)Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Alan on TwitterIT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

55mins

2 Oct 2019

Rank #6

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SI79: A historical volatile week put into perspective ft. Robert Carver

We’re joined on the show today by special guest Robert Carver, to discuss another historically volatile week in the markets, the differences between today’s bear market and 2008, how Robert defines portfolio diversification, how many markets a profitable Trend Following system should trade, the different types of strategies that Robert currently uses, the amount of truly uncorrelated assets available, and volatility scaling as a part of risk management.  Questions answered this week include: What causes you to modify your system over time, and how do you go about this?  What have you learnt from trading through previous crisis periods?  What are your thoughts on AI technology?Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:09 – Macro recap from Niels04:03 – Weekly review of performance08:09 – Niels: How have you dealt with the recent volatility?19:44 – Niels: What does diversification mean to you?28:35 – Niels: How many markets can be considered too many for a diversified Trend Following system to trade?41:10 – Moritz: What type of different strategies do you currently trade?46:27 – Niels: What has helped you to do well during recently, especially during the recent market turmoil?51:17 – Niels: Why have you chosen to trade different markets differently, rather than treating all markets the same?01:03:18 – Seth; Question 1: How do you incorporate correlations into building a Trend Following program?01:09:40 – Moritz; Question 2: What causes you modify your system over time, and how do you go about this?01:14:37 – Niels: What, in your opinion, is a good risk management framework?  What have you learnt from trading previous crisis periods?01:22:09 – Niels: What are your thoughts on AI technology?01:27:20 – Moritz: What are your thoughts on the possibility of Trend Following becoming too crowded?01:36:12 – Benchmark performance update

1hr 41mins

15 Mar 2020

Rank #7

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SI77: Trading through the quickest 10% correction in stock market history

After the quickest 10% correction straight from an all-time-high in stock market history last week, we discuss how human emotions & behaviours played their part, the threat of the coronavirus and its effect on world economies, why a week is too short a time to judge if CTAs are providing ‘crisis alpha’, and why short-term systems should have performed really well during the selloff. Questions we cover include: How do you define ‘signal strength’? Do you use stop-losses, and if so, how? Can you apply Trend Following systems to micro futures contracts?Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:20 – Macro recap from Niels03:00 – Weekly review of performance14:13 – Top Tweets39:45 – Brian; Question 1: Have any of your guests mentioned the use of different rules for different markets?44:25 – Jacob; Question 2: What are the criteria for deciding to change your rules?51:29 – Adrian; Question 3: How do you define signal strength?55:46 – Jonathan; Question 4: If you use stop-losses, how do you use them?01:02:51 – Craig; Question 5: How regularly should you communicate with your clients?01:08:20 – Russ; Question 6: Can I apply a trend following trading system to micro futures contracts?01:11:22 – Benchmark performance update

1hr 15mins

1 Mar 2020

Rank #8

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RT22: Volatility Master Class ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 1of2

“I think the idea is that the math of quantitative easing really matters. It’s all about the shift at the margin.” – Dan Stone (Tweet)Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group and the Managed Funds Association. On today’s episode, which took place at the MFA’s Network 2019 conference in Miami, guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. With these three world class volatility experts on the show, we’ll be going deep into the current state of volatility, the ramifications of United States quantitative easing, as well as the economic effects on the market of various social movements around the world.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How our guests got interested in the financial industry and data analyticsThe state of the market now and where it is headed in the futureWhy Dan sees the Quantitative Easing and its effect on market changes hurting long-term volatility“I think this period where we’ve had excessively low volatility driven by central bank quantitative easing and expansion of the monetary base has resulted in a build up in many of these strategies, and presents both an opportunity and a risk to the system.” – Matthew Sargaison (Tweet)The hidden risks to the markets from the rise of populismDan’s “top five longball macro themes” and what we can learn from themWhere Matthew sees opportunities in volatility today“What’s the biggest risk to markets? It’s if markets get the sense that central banks have lost control.” – Dan Stone (Tweet)What it has been like as a long-vol trader for the last ten years, when you are up against the World’s Central BanksWhy you don’t have to put your “end-of-the-world” hat on…just yetConnect with our guests:Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital ManagementLearn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHLLearn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital“You do not create 15 trillion dollars out of thin air supporting the longest bull market in history and expect to wind that back without some disruption in risk assets. That is the dominant macro theme going forward.” – Chris Cole (Tweet)Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.This episode was sponsored by CME Group & Managed Funds Association.

30mins

20 Mar 2019

Rank #9

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SI80: Why uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable ft. Eric Crittenden

This week, special guest Eric Crittenden joins us on the show to discuss: the importance of being able to trade short positions, how the best Trend Following strategies have proven their worth in this current environment, why Trend Following can be regarded as a Contrarian Strategy, whether or not ETFs are safe investments, when being 1st place can be as detrimental as coming last, why the most uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable, why you can’t time entries into a Trend Following fund, how too much AUM can hinder returns, and why there is so much returns dispersion among CTAs today.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:50 – Macro recap from Niels03:12 – Weekly review of performance06:51 – Niels: How did you get to where you are today?08:00 – Niels: What persuaded you to embrace Trend Following?11:48 – Moritz: Do you believe Trend Following works because it’s difficult to do?17:05 – Niels: What do you think it takes nowadays to be a successful investor?21:38 – Niels: Do you think the speed of the current meltdown is surprising?30:17 – Moritz: Is the Trend Following space overcrowded, and are its results decaying?48:31 – Niels: What do you think of Trend Following on individual stocks?52:42 – Niels: Are concerned about the stability of ETFs?56:09 – Moritz: Do you have any concerns about the money passively allocated to ETFs?58:30 – Moritz: Did you imply Trend Following on individual stocks isn’t worth it, after fees?01:02:51 – Niels: Can you explain your ‘3 Narratives’, starting with ‘The Experiment’?01:09:45 – Niels: Tell us about the next narrative, ‘The Crazy Gym’?01:13:58  – Niels: What about the 3rd narrative, ‘Michelle & her 2 advisors’?01:18:21  – Eric: Moritz, would you like to talk about recent trades in the energy sector?01:29:50 – Benchmark performance update01:31:56 – Niels: Eric is there anything else you would like to bring up in closing?

1hr 35mins

23 Mar 2020

Rank #10

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SI22: Can intra-day trading be scaled to a big business?

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:15 – Weekly review of performance06:10 – Top tweets28:45 – Book mention: The Systems Bible by John Gall38:25 – Question 1: Craig; Should all markets be considered equal from a TF perspective?44:00 – Question 2: Johannes; Can intraday trading be scaled into a big business?51:00 – Question 3: Manuel; What are good rules for managing position sizes to keep risk at a reasonable level as winners inherently grow with Trend Following?58:10 – Question 4/5: George; Why does TF seem to need so many return drivers for optimal diversification? How much could a TF strategy lose at once if all went wrong?01:11:15 – Question 6: Francois; Are TF interested in the sine of the speed of the trend only and not the actual speed?01:17:40 – Question 7/8: Samuel; How do you roll positions? What are your favorite resources to stay up to date on systematic investing (journals, podcasts, subscriptions, authors)?01:30:20 – Benchmark performance update

1hr 32mins

10 Feb 2019

Rank #11

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BO37: Does Trend Following still work? Comments from David Harding, Cliff Asness & Stanley Druckenmiller

“Experts” claim that the character of the markets has changed in recent years. We discuss comments from David Harding, Stanley Druckenmiller & Cliff Asness, relating to Trend Following.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

12mins

17 Mar 2020

Rank #12

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SI69: Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence and how to overcome it

In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that can work during all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of  positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk.  Questions covered this week include: Are CTAs becoming too cautious?  Is it really worth diversifying away from developed markets? What causes you to make adjustments to your models?Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:09 – Macro recap from Niels14:06 – Weekly review of performance19:18  – Top tweets49:01 – Question 1: Sam; Is it worth diversifying away from developed markets?55:22 – Question 2: Edmund; Can you recommend any detailed backtesting software with the ability to test variable position sizes?58:12 – Question 3: Drew; What causes you to make adjustments to your models?01:06:14 – Question 4: Sebastian; Why is it so hard to be a successful Trend Follower, when it seems we as Humans innately like to follow trends anyway (ie. fashion, social media, tech)?01:12:39 – Benchmark performance update01:14:16 – Send your questions in for our upcoming special guest, Andreas Clenow

1hr 16mins

5 Jan 2020

Rank #13

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BO75: Volatility vs Risk and why Investors keeps getting this mixed up!

Why Volatility differs from Risk, and how it may even be considered your friend.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

2mins

11 May 2020

Rank #14

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SI82: Is Machine Learning and AI just a marketing ploy? ft. Harold de Boer

Special guest, Harold de Boer of Transtrend, joins us on the show today to discuss why the recent returns disparity among CTAs might be good for the industry, the benefits of investing in more than one Trend Following fund, if the term ‘machine learning’ should be considered as a marketing ploy, what makes a strategy robust, why unsupervised ‘black box’ strategies may be riskier than more traditional strategies, how much the markets have changed over time, some thoughts on volatility targeting, and how CTAs can differentiate themselves in the eyes of investors.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:18 – Macro recap from Niels03:14 – Weekly review of performance06:56 – Niels: What do you make of the huge returns dispersion of CTAs during the recent market crash?14:14 – Niels: What causes managers to have similar results?16:42 – Moritz: Is the adoption of Machine Learning & AI more than just a marketing ploy?25:58 – Niels: How CTAs differentiate themselves from each other, in the eyes of investors?28:57 – Niels: Why are investors usually least invested in Trend Following strategies around the time when they need it most?30:00 – Moritz: What is the Transtrend story?33:14 – Moritz: How do you use synthetic markets?35:08 – Niels; Why have you decided to lower the amount of markets you trade?38:36 – Niels; How do you avoid taking on too much counter party risk?45:49 – Moritz: How do you approach market correlations?49:53 – Moritz: As a liquidity provider, what happens when orders aren’t filled?52:55 – Moritz: Do you have any concerns, as a liquidity provider?55:43 – Niels: Who do you think market regulators need to take a look at?59:01 – Moritz: Would you like it if markets were only open for a short amount of time per day?01:02:26 – Moritz: Do you believe that trading commodities hurt the producers in any way?01:12:06 – Niels: Have markets changed?01:13:36 – Niels: How do CTAs avoid client redemptions during a crisis, purely because they’re the only liquids funds left?01:16:25 – Niels: What do you think is important when it comes to robustness?01:18:56 – Moritz: What’s your view on volatility targeting?01:22:18 – Niels: What are your thoughts on the belief that Trend Following is overcrowded?01:24:56 – Benchmark performance update

1hr 27mins

5 Apr 2020

Rank #15

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SI86: Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting ft. Moritz Seibert

Today, we discuss comments from Warren Buffett in the recent Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, AQR Capital’s recent research finding pure Trend Following strategies to be a better hedge in bear markets than Options strategies, the oil market & the USO ETF, how commodities are great diversifiers which often outperform equities, how to think about market inefficiencies, and why it’s never too late to invest into Trend Following.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:53 – Macro recap from Niels07:24 – Weekly review of returns40:38 – Alastair: Questions 1/2/3:  How do you pick which month futures contract to trade?  Is there any possible alpha in how you roll a futures contract?  What is your overall reason for doing what you do in the markets?52:22 – Top Tweet53:49 – Performance recap56:35 – Announcement of next week’s special guest, Nick Leeson

59mins

3 May 2020

Rank #16

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SI61: Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies

In this week’s episode, we discuss the recently published book on Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies, why you shouldn’t be too focused on one position, why it can be difficult to avoid overriding your system based on recent fundamentals, what investors can learn from the world’s best Poker players, and why luck should only be the result of following your edge.  Plenty of questions answered this week including: Should you add to winning positions?  Do you only trade Breakouts or do you also use indicators?  Does less volatility mean more robustness?  Do you trade ETFs?Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:50 – Live event review02:45 – Weekly review of performance10:40-  Voicemail from Jim13:20 – Top tweets36:05 – Question 1: Matt; Do you use indicators beyond price action and new highs/lows?42:00 – Questions 2/3: James; How do you calculate sample size? Does each lookback window need to be treated independently or should risk be managed in aggregate?51:40 – Questions 4/5: Brian; Why are more volatile systems considered more robust? Does lower volatility lead to better compound returns?01:06:40 – Question 6: Gaetano; Do you trade ETFs?01:10:00 – Benchmark performance update01:11:00-  Ray Dalio discussion

1hr 14mins

10 Nov 2019

Rank #17

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SI68: The surprising relationship between volatility and risk

In this week’s episode, we discuss the notion of correlation between volatility and risk, why it can be a bad idea to equate a manager’s performance with their skill-level, when a losing trade should still be considered a good trade, how much opportunity is in Low-Volatility Targeting strategies, and we also give our end-of-year reviews.  Questions answered this week include: Is Trend Following another form of price prediction?  Do you follow the weekly Commitments of Traders report? Can you can you make money in the markets without the need for predictions?Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:55 – Macro recap from Niels03:10 – Weekly review of performance18:41  – Top tweets43:29 – Question 1: Woody; Is Trend Following another form of predicting price moves?01:00:18 – Question 2 William; Do you follow the weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report?01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update01:08:52 – End of year recap01:19:32 – Top tweets (cont.)01:20:59 – Thank you to our listeners in 2019

1hr 23mins

29 Dec 2019

Rank #18

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SI40: Is past performance actually indicative of future returns? ft. Corey Hoffstein

This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast.  We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns.  Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk’, why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns.  We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED05:35 – Weekly review of performance08:50 - Corey's journey22:00 – Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When35:10 – Question: How do you know when your model is broken?42:15 – Question: Do you think TF will continue to work?52:00 – Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it!56:50 – Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed?01:01:20 – Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio?01:06:45 – Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc.01:17:40 – Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else?01:21:20 – Question: Why is it easier to predict markets & performance 10 years out…unlike most other things in life?01:27:00 – Question: Do you think past performance is a guide?01:29:15 – Question from Christian: Do you think more information in models adds value?01:33:00 – Question from another Moritz: How do you invest personally?01:36:50 – Benchmark performance update

1hr 40mins

16 Jun 2019

Rank #19