Kevin Muir: Are We Heading for a Decade of Inflation?
Palisades Gold Radio
Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of "The Macro Tourist" to the show.Investors seem to be having problems understanding the current economy and inflation. Those in charge are arguing that this past month had no inflation. The reality is that month over month figures may be indicating that inflation has peaked. This may cause the Fed may to be less hawkish than most investors are expecting.Kevin argues that bond markets are assessing the economy and the possibility of a recession differently than stocks. Kevin cautions against selling stocks at this point. Over the long-term, stock markets should reflect the economy, but over shorter periods they can get ahead of themselves.Kevin is more of a bull on the real economy because of our past monetary policy. We've forgotten that fiscal policy can provide some benefits to the economy.Inflation can't be fixed by spending more on fiscal policies. He expects inflation to continue for at least a decade, and this will be a big factor that investors will want to consider.He's more concerned with bonds than the stock market. Should the Fed decide they don't need to reduce growth, then we could see a huge shift away from bonds. We could have a 1987 style setup with bonds triggering a crash. Bonds aren't providing the safety hedge that they did historically. The monetary environment is shifting rapidly, and investors may be overlooking this looming issue.Kevin contrasts the differences between the Canadian and U.S. housing markets. Canada appears to be contracting, but the United States could see higher prices.He believes the only way the Fed is cutting over the next year is if something critical breaks.Gold has a role to play as a way of mitigating risk and hedging low real rates. Gold has suffered for the last few months because of Fed policy on rates and the dollar's rise.Lastly, he outlines why this coming inflationary decade may be an opportunity for carefully positioned investors.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Markets & CPI2:08 - A Turning Point?6:24 - Stocks & Growth9:36 - Bearish Sentiment12:50 - Pandora's Box16:25 - Stimulus & Recovery18:24 - More Bond Concerns25:20 - Counterpoints30:04 - Housing Bubbles?32:52 - Tech Equities Sell-Off35:08 - Crypto Thoughts37:00 - Fed Objectives41:55 - Supply Chains45:37 - Inflationary Opportunity?51:54 - Golds Role & Doom59:06 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeInflation outlook and the market's expectation of a recession.Why bond markets are carrying considerable risk.Differences between the Canadian and U.S. housing markets.Golds role of mitigating risk, and it's ability to hedge rates.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Email for Sample Letters: email@example.comKevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.
Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares: Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls “crap”) will likely continue How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks
E 20: Kevin Muir on How to Position Portfolios for an Upcoming Inflationary Cycle
The Pitch Podcast
[SHOW NOTES]These days it feels like the price of everything -- from housing, cars, gasoline, and even travel -- is skyrocketing. Today's guest, Kevin Muir, makes the argument that the inflation we are seeing around us is not a transient blip that will normalize with the easing of the pandemic, but an enduring force and a new economic reality. Kevin is the author of the MacroTourist Newsletter, with a tongue-in-cheek tagline of "All I Bring to the Party is 25 years of Mistakes." He is an expert macro thinker and trader and offers many nuggets of wisdom throughout the episode. Key Points in This EpisodeKevin's career evolution from trading at a prestigious investment bank to striking it out on his ownHow it's easier to make money than to keep it, and the importance of remaining humble and constantly learningHis views on market bubbles, and how today's environment compares with previous bubblesThe rise of the retail trader as a formidable market force, and how hedge funds have to now think harder about right-tail riskModern Monetary Theory and its place in the current debateHow the fiscal and monetary response to COVID was different from past cycles and will have different consequencesWhat has changed in the market that will lead to inflation enduring in the 4-5% rangeHow to position portfolios in the new economic regime
184|Energy, China, and Inflation ft. Kevin Muir with Srivatsan Prakash
Kevin Muir is the writer of the renowned newsletter The Macro Tourist, host of the Market Huddle podcast, and a former prop trader. Here he discusses various themes he's watching including oil, nat gas, uranium, China, inflation, and more!
Ep 11: Showdown at the Inflation/Deflation Corral - Interview with Kevin Muir
Truth Serum by Scheer Law Group, LLP
In our legal segment will examine legal and economic issues impacting lenders, landlords and investors, including Fed tapering of QE, increased federal regulation of crypto currency, including stable coins and the end of mortgage forbearance. Then join Spencer at the Shootout at the Inflation and Deflation Corral. In late July of this year, he interviewed Steven Van Metre a well-known financial advisor, and in August he interviewed renown economist A. Gary Shilling, Both are contrarians calling for near term deflation and bond and mortgage rates to decline to as low as 1% in the near future. In this interview, he will give you excerpts from both interviews and then will present his interview with Kevin Muir a well-known market trader and an inflationist, to get the other side of the story. Stay tuned as Truth Serum presents the Shootout at the Inflation and Deflation Corral. Anyone following the stock, bond or RE market should listen carefully because backing the wrong gun fighter, may turn out to be the worst decision you made in 2021 and 2022. Disclaimer: None of the legal, or financial opinions or information expressed in this podcast may be relied on as legal, or investment advice by Scheer Law Group, LLP. Laws and economic issues affecting the subjects of this podcast change daily. This mandates specific review of legal or economic issues of interest or concern to you with legal counsel or financial advisors who are experienced in the areas of law or finance discussed in this podcast. For more on Scheer Law Group, LLP, go to www.scheerlawgroup.com
🆕 The Difference In Good Traders And Outstanding Traders with Kevin Muir
How to Trade Stocks and Options Podcast by 10minutestocktrader.com
Ready to Take the guesswork out of trading? Check out https://www.aistocktradingsystem.com You can find out more about The Difference in Good Traders and Outstanding Traders, you can click: https://themacrotourist.com/ The video is about The Difference in Good Traders and Outstanding Traders information but also try to cover the following subject: -learn to trade -when should I trade -how to trade stocks So you want to know more about The Difference in Good Traders and Outstanding Traders, I did too, and here is the video I made. The Difference between Good Traders and Outstanding Traders intrigued me so I did some research study and uploaded this to YT. Follow our videos about learning to trade, when should I trade and how to trade stocks as well as other similar topics on Facebook: facebook.com/10minutetrading Twitter: twitter.com/10minutetrading Instagram: instagram.com/10minutetrading Now that you have actually watched my YouTube vid about The Difference in Good Traders and Outstanding Traders has it assisted? Please like the YT video to assist your friends looking to learn to trade or when should I trade :) My Name is Christopher Uhl and I'm an Award-Winning Trader, Entrepreneur, Author, Podcaster, Speaker, and Coach that partners with entrepreneurial traders and everyday investors looking to get ahead around the world to help them change their financial futures. Follow these steps to get started on your journey to becoming a 10 Minute Trader too! Step #1: Get the 100% FREE secret weapon that investors all over the world are using to start changing their financial future here: https://www.triplestockprofits.com Step #2: Want to See How We Use Artificial Intelligence To Get Win Rates As High as 90%, Without Wasting Any Time on Useless and Obsolete Technical Analysis... Go Right Now to https://www.finclub.ai and see for yourself how they take the guesswork out of trading! Step #3 Do you have the premier options, trading broker? If you have any other brokers, I want you to stop and go to https://www.trytastyworks.com right now. I have an incredible offer for you, just sign up for a FREE account with Tastyworks using offer code 10MINUTE and I will give you nearly $1,500 in FREE bonuses just for creating a FREE account! It doesn't get any easier than that! Step #4 This Is The BEST Charting Platform I've Ever Used, Get 15% (or more!) Off Your First Year! TRENDSPIDER - The Future of Trading Software https://trendspider.10minutestocktrader.com Step #5 Get A FREE Copy Of The Book I Use As My Business Plan To Grow From Zero to Seven Figures... Expert Secrets - Find Your Message, Build A Tribe, And Change The World... https://expertsecrets.10minutestocktrader.com For more information please visit: https://www.10minutestocktrader.com/legal
Inflation, Interest Rates and Modern Monetary Theory with Kevin Muir|EP55
Working Capital The Real Estate Podcast
Long passionate about markets, Kevin grew up in a household where his father was an equity research director. Being exposed to market talk as long as he can remember, Kevin's true love was always macro. In fact, his first trade was in the US dollar index which promptly went limit-locked against him. Not deterred, Kevin persevered and got a job on institutional equity desk for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. Kevin moved into a proprietary group where he was in a charge of the equity derivatives book. Kevin had a ringside seat for the madness of the DotCom bubble, but in 2000, with a new young family, and the desire to no longer work for a bank, Kevin set off on his own. For the next 17 years, Kevin would solely trade his own account with another former co-worker from the bank and a full-time computer programmer student they hired. Since then, Kevin has joined a well-establish prop group. In this episode we talked about: Kevin’s Background The current state of the economy Central banks in the post covid world Types of inflation Fiscal policy Monetary policy MMT Globalization Real Estate outlook How to deal with inflation in Real Estate The Rental market Working from home
153|Investing as a Generalist ft. Kevin Muir with Srivatsan Prakash
This episode features Kevin Muir, the author of the Macro Tourist newsletter and an investor who's happy to look at any kind of opportunities from crypto currencies to bonds to risk arbitrage! Here we discuss his process, what it was like working on a Canadian proprietary trading desk, and much more!