A conversation with Australia-China expert James Laurenceson
New Zealand China Council Podcast
How has the Australia-China relationship changed over the last few years? What has been the impact of the spill-over of politics into the economic realm? Have views on China become more polarised, and what is the impact of increased tensions on Australia’s Chinese community? These are some of the topics covered in our wide-ranging discussion with Professor James Laurenceson - an economist and the Director of the Australian China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney. Professor Laurenceson’s academic research has been published in international peer reviewed journals. He is also a regular contributor to the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the Sydney Morning Herald and East Asia Forum.
42. COVID-19: What is the Australia-China economic impact? - with James Laurenceson
The ACRI Podcast
As the unprecedented public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to permeate into both daily life and the broader currents of international affairs, it is clear that what began as an outbreak of a novel coronavirus in mainland China has mutated into a globalised ‘grey rhino’ event with significant second-order implications for the Australia-China relationship. In this special edition of the UTS:ACRI Podcast, UTS:ACRI Director Professor James Laurenceson discusses these implications amid concerns around the Australia-China economic relationship, which now sees exports to mainland China accounting for seven percent of Australia’s GDP.An important piece of context is that despite political and diplomatic tensions, goods exports to mainland China in the year to January 2020 reached $150 billion. This was up 26 percent on the year to January 2019, with services exports growing by eight percent over the same period. This means that negative economic effects will be coming off a high base.Nonetheless, there is no doubt that mainland China’s economy has been subject to significant disruption since January. While forecasting currently projects a severe contraction in the first quarter of 2020, the mainland Chinese economy is expected to recover to 4.5 percent GDP growth by December, a 1.5 percentage point decrease compared to the previous year. However, a weaker recovery cannot be ruled out, with some forecasts predicting much lower growth.Testifying to this are official data from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government such as purchasing manager’s indexes – measures of business sentiment and activity – which hit record lows in January and February, lower than market expectations and unofficial indexes.The impacts of this downturn are likely to be felt unevenly across sectors of Australia’s economy as the relationship between mainland China’s economic growth and its demand for imports is not 1:1. An indicative case is that of PRC visitors flows to Australia, where heterogeneity between reasons for visiting mean that while tourist visitor numbers have been almost completely curtailed, a smaller proportion of visitors coming for education are affected, with 50 percent of student visa holders from mainland China onshore by March 1.Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic has seen the revival of commentary arguing that Australia is economically ‘too dependent’ on the PRC. However, COVID-19 is clearly now a global shock rather than a PRC-specific one, meaning that while Australia’s exports to the mainland Chinese market will decline, so too will exports to other markets. Further, it is likely that mainland China will be the first major economy to recover, despite significant headwinds.
Coronavirus | Chinese Influence in Australia | OBOR | Xinjiang with Professor James Laurenceson
Carnage House Productions
Professor James Laurenceson, Director of the Australia China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney, had a chat with Carnage House Productions about the Australia China Relationship. We discussed topics ranging from the Coronavirus, Chinese Influence in Australia, One Belt One Road as well as Xinjiang 'Re-education' Camps. Find Professor Laurenceson Twitter: https://twitter.com/j_laurenceson?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor ACRI: https://www.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/australia-china-relations-institute Support CHP Follow CHP on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/carnagehouseproductions/ Follow CHP on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CarnageHouseProductions/ Subscribe to CHP on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVz3KMuSKUhGVOK6l2Hz91Q Support CHP on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/CarnageHouseProductions/
30. Australian media discourse on China - with James Laurenceson
The ACRI Podcast
When Australia talks about China, the China Opportunity and the China Challenge forms part of the discourse. The China Opportunity reflects the enormous economic benefits that Australia already derives from its $184 billion trade relationship with China. The China Challenge reflects the reality that as China has risen in wealth and power, some of its behaviour has conflicted with Australia’s interests. These narratives are grounded in facts and evidence. However, in the last 18 months the discourses of China Threat, China Angst and China Panic – which are less evidence-based – have become more prevalent.James Laurenceson, Deputy Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney, joins host Bob Carr, Director of ACRI, to discuss the key findings of his new ACRI research report, ‘Do the claims stack up? Australia talks China’. The report examines recent Australian media discourse about China and assesses the evidence base for various claims made about China and Chinese influence and interference in Australia.