Read_631 - The ECB is Trapped, Here's Why [Lyn Alden]
"Base money is a liability of the central bank, and it’s used as a reserve asset by commercial banks. Broad money is the liability of commercial banks, and it’s used as a savings asset by the public. Treasuries are liabilities of the federal government, and they’re used as collateral by the central bank and commercial banks.In other words, liabilities are collateralized by other liabilities, all the way down." - Lyn AldenToday we dive into another great piece from Lyn Alden's newsletter on the macro situation. What happens when you build a monetary system from nothing but liabilities, and then manipulate the price of interest such that the economy goes ever deeper into debt? Unfortunately we are all about to find out. But luckily we have Lyn Alden to break it down for us, with Read_631 on Bitcoin Audible.Link to the article and other great stuff on Lyn's investment blog:https://www.lynalden.com/ecb-trapped/For the best products and services to get you started in Bitcoin, our sponsors are literally a handful of those that I use most in this space:• Get Bitcoin rewards on literally everything you buy with the Fold Card (guyswann.com/fold). Get 20% off with discount code BITCOINAUDIBLE.• Buy Bitcoin automatically and painlessly with SwanBitcoin (swanbitcoin.com/guy)• Keep your Bitcoin keys safe on the secure, open source BitBox02 (guyswann.com/bitbox). Discount code GUY gets you 5% off. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“I think we’re going through a quote-unquote ‘fourth turning,’ so a time period where we’re examining our existing institutions. We’re decreasing our level of trust in them, whether it’s governments, whether it’s media, whether it’s corporations… basically the things that have been built over the past 50-100 years, and wanting to build new institutions. And that transition is always very messy.”— Lyn AldenLyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss the macro environment. We zero in on the current inflationary crisis, focusing on the demand/supply problems with energy, prospects for recession, and the impact on markets and countries. - - - - The last time inflationary pressures seriously concerned the US was the 1970s. The decade ended with inflation at nearly 15%. Many believe current inflation, real inflation, not the figures provided by the US Dept of Labor, is at least 15% if not higher. And yet, we are in a much more precarious position now than in the period of the 1970s referred to as the “The Great Inflation”. Global debt is at an all-time high. US government debt is over 137% of GDP. Unprecedented money printing during the global financial crisis was followed by more extreme money printing during the pandemic. Most countries are now bloated with debt. Further, interest rates are still at abnormally low levels. Economies are precariously balanced. Recession is close at hand.At the same time, there is an energy crisis. Decades of underinvestment in energy infrastructure, poor policy decisions, and geopolitical issues means we have insufficient energy supply and price spikes. In the UK 40% of households could be deemed to be in energy poverty soon. There is talk of oil reaching $300 a barrel.Then there is an emerging food crisis. The war between Russia and Ukraine is affecting some of the biggest suppliers of wheat, sunflower oil, and fertilizer. According to the World Food Programme 276 million face famine. A cost of living crisis is hitting the most vulnerable in all corners of the globe.We are in very uncertain times. History suggests such pressures fuel populism, protest, and conflict. How should we protect our investments in such times? What assets could weather these storms? Who can we trust? This episode’s sponsors:Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantlyBlockFi - The future of Bitcoin financial servicesSportsbet.io - Online sportsbook & casino that accepts BitcoinCasa - The leading provider of Bitcoin multisig key security.Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletCompass Mining - Bitcoin mining & hostingLVL - Bank on BitcoinBCB Group - Global digital financial Services-----WBD509 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Read_626 - Digital Alchemy, A Post-Mortem of the Crypto Crash [Lyn Alden]
"Several exchanges in the industry fuel bubbles for a quick buck as well. If something starts to get momentum, including meme coins like DOGE or SHIB that don’t realistically have a substantial future, they promote those coins to their users, which can suck retail investors into buying the bubble top. Plus, a lot of Youtube and TikTok influencers pump small coins, and use their audience as exit liquidity." - Lyn AldenFor those of you who may be unaware, there was a recent blow up of a deca-billion dollar LUNA and TerraUSD algorithmic stablecoin. Essentially the entire market capitalization of UST and LUNA vanished in a matter of hours in a spectacular economic death spiral. How did this happen and what was the source of such an incredible risk of what had recently become one of the most promising "crypto" projects in recent months? Find out in Lyn Alden's Post-Mortem of the Crypto Crash.Check out the original plus Lyn's other amazing work on her blog:https://www.lynalden.com/digital-alchemy/Another great piece from Lyn if you want to get ahead of the show:https://www.lynalden.com/what-is-money/For the best products and services to get you started in Bitcoin, our sponsors are literally a handful of those that I use most in this space:• Get Bitcoin rewards on literally everything you buy with the Fold Card (guyswann.com/fold). Get 20% off with discount code BITCOINAUDIBLE.• Buy Bitcoin automatically and painlessly with SwanBitcoin (swanbitcoin.com/guy)• Keep your Bitcoin keys safe on the secure, open source BitBox02 (guyswann.com/bitbox). Discount code GUY gets you 5% off. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“All of these monetary transitions involve people that could think of the unthinkable. And that could look past how the system currently is and envision: if you just start with a blank sheet of paper, how could it be? What are the alternative kind of timelines we could be under?”— Lyn AldenLyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss currency crises, the history of money, the properties of good money, and whether Bitcoin can usher in a new era of programmable, commodity money. - - - - What is money? We are taught to critically question and evaluate the world around us. Yet, most people never query the essence of what is perhaps civilisation’s most important tool. We readily accept the money we have and use it without examining its history, characteristics, or whether it could be improved and changed. We are living through extraordinary times. The world around us is in flux: established norms are being upended. Yet, the most extraordinary change is occurring without, arguably, the fanfare it deserves. Money is changing. A viable alternative to fiat currency has taken hold. An open and free, censorship-resistant currency available to anyone with qualities that surpass previous forms of money is carving out its place as the future of money.Coins and notes are examples of money we are all familiar with. Yet, shares, property, or in fact, any tradable item are also forms of money. We interact with various forms of money, and implicity utilise their attributes without proper examination. So, what are the qualities and features of money? Why do we use different forms of money? What is money? It is only through proper consideration of these questions that the unique and revolutionary properties of Bitcoin become apparent. Bitcoin is much more than just a speculative digital asset. It seeks to be the best money ever invented, combining the benefits of gold, cash, and various contemporary stores of value. More importantly, Bitcoin provides new features seeking to protect the individual in the digital age. Bitcoin may be much more than a useful tool, it could be a necessity.This episode’s sponsors:Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantlyBlockFi - The future of Bitcoin financial servicesSportsbet.io - Online sportsbook & casino that accepts BitcoinCasa - The leading provider of Bitcoin multisig key security.Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletCompass Mining - Bitcoin mining & hostingLVL - Bank on BitcoinBCB Group - Global digital financial Services-----WBD496 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Lyn Alden: A Pendulum Between Stagflation & Reflation
The Macro Trading Floor
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy.Walking Alfonso and Andreas through her macro framework, Lyn explains the past two years of unorthodox monetary and fiscal policies. Drawing on the 1940s as an indicator, she correctly predicted the high inflation rates we’re currently seeing far ahead of most.Expecting a pendulum-style shift between reflation and stagflation, Lyn shares her actionable investment idea while giving a clear outlook for today’s macro landscape — you can't afford to miss this episode!--Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactFollow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasStenoFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Referenced In The Show: ARK's Expected Value For Tesla In 2026: $4,600 per Share: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/arks-tesla-model/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(02:05) Worst Take of The Week(06:20) Market Outlook(15:35) Feature Interview With Lyn Alden(18:18) How Fiscal Handouts Caused Inflation(20:40) Weakening Demand Throughout 2022(22:35) Weak Growth Over The Next Decade(26:45) Will Fed Tightening Spell Danger For Markets(29:40) Lyn's Actionable Trade Idea(41:05) Post Interview: Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Lyn Alden is the Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and an expert in macro markets who’s also a strong Bitcoin, proof-of-work proponent. Her friendly counterpart, Justin Drake is a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation and is pro proof-of-stake. Both are recurring guests on Bankless! The two experts debate which is better: proof-of-work or proof-of-stake for creating a global-crypto money system? Other topics include: economic security, deterrence and recoverability in the face of the dreaded 51% attack, minimization of governance power, economic fairness, commodity vs. equity money, and so much more! Which is your preference, proof-of-work or proof-of-stake? Warning: after this debate, your preference may change. ------ ✨ DEBRIEF ✨ | Ryan & David's Unfiltered Thoughts on the Episode https://shows.banklesshq.com/p/debrief-the-pow-vs-pos-debate-lyn ------ 📣 ZERION | Trade Across 7 Networks and 500+ protocols https://bankless.cc/Zerion ------ 🚀 SUBSCRIBE TO NEWSLETTER: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/ 🎙️ SUBSCRIBE TO PODCAST: http://podcast.banklesshq.com/ ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 👀 POLYGON | LAYER 2 DEFI https://bankless.cc/Polygon ❎ ACROSS | BRIDGE TO LAYER 2 https://bankless.cc/Across 🦊 METAMASK | THE CRYPTO WALLET https://bankless.cc/metamask 💳 LEDGER | THE CRYPTO LIFE CARD https://bankless.cc/Ledger 🧙♂️ ALCHEMIX | SELF REPAYING LOANS https://bankless.cc/Alchemix 🦄 UNISWAP | DECENTRALIZED FUNDING https://bankless.cc/UniGrants ------ Topics Covered: 0:00 Intro 6:15 Backgrounds 8:12 The Better Monetary Premium 11:00 Equity, PoS, Commodity, PoW? 23:30 Hypothetical PoS Bitcoin 30:25 Lyn’s Rebuttal to Multiple Justin Claims 36:05 Justin’s Rebuttal to Multiple Lyn Claims 44:50 Inherently Fair or Unfair? 53:27 Different Kinds of Risk 57:30 Client Diversity 1:03:00 Lyn’s Macro Perspective 1:13:00 Justin’s Technical Perspective 1:17:42 Governance & Memes 1:29:55 The Rich Get Richer? 1:32:35 Closing Arguments ------ Resources: Lyn’s Proof of Stake Article https://www.lynalden.com/proof-of-stake/ Economic Security & Efficiency https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KdzhgbTqhRd0LndK4R8c50OK-s6W568Ydd1aytokwbs/edit#gid=0 Lyn’s Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Justin’s Twitter https://twitter.com/drakefjustin ----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research. Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/bankless-disclosures
Lyn Alden - Global Economic Trends, Currencies & Petrodollar System
The Your Life! Your Terms! Show
Lyn always brings incredible clarity to current events. On this episode of The Your Life! Your Terms! Show we catch up with Lyn to get her thoughts on financial repression in 2022, interest rates, stablecoins, the future of the reserve currency, Bitcoin and more. Towards the end we also dive into Lyn's formative years and discuss how she got started investing, why she is in the finance space, how she began and how she tests herself regularly. You can learn more about Lyn and get access to her amazing newsletter at www.LynAlden.com and you can follow her on Twitter @LynAldenContact
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
“And you can even consider Bitcoin as a type of populism, but I would just describe it as one of the better types of populism; basically, it’s people rallying behind a new network effect technology, and saying that this is the solution.”— Lyn AldenLocation: RemoteDate: Tuesday 22nd FebruaryProject: lynalden.comRole: MacroeconomistWealth inequality is as an emotive subject as any. At a minimum it can divide societies, pitting citizens against each other. If left to deteriorate and fester it can lead to populist uprisings. Both sides of the political divide put forward causes and propose solutions. And yet, despite the arguments being well worn, most of the assumptions underpinning these opinions don’t stand up to scrutiny.Quantitative easing results in increased inequality - well, not necessarily. Globalisation leads to a hollowing out of the working class in developed nations - only in certain parts of the world. Governments enable cronyism to exacerbate wealth disparities - lobbying can constrain competition, but it is unclear whether libertarianism would halt monopolistic practices. Those vying to shape opinion would have us believe in binary arguments. The problem, as ever, is that this subject is complex with many dynamic variables. It isn’t a question of making targeted policy interventions. A much more holistic and flexible approach is required.In this interview, I talk to macroeconomist and investment strategist Lyn Alden. We discuss the multi-faceted drivers of wealth inequality, the societal impacts of such disparities, whether we’re on the cusp of another great depression, state-led policies, and whether Bitcoin is a mitigation.This episode’s sponsors:Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantlyBlockFi - The future of Bitcoin financial servicesSportsbet.io - Online sportsbook & casino that accepts BitcoinCasa - The leading provider of Bitcoin multisig key security.Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletCompass Mining - Bitcoin mining & hostingLVL - Bank on BitcoinBCB Group - Global digital financial Services-----WBD467 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
In this epsisode Saifedean talks to economist and investor Lyn Alden about her views on the global macroeconomy. They start by discussing recent market turbulence in light of the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy, whether these plans are realisable, and what this will mean for consumer price inflation and the stock market. They then move on to a discussion of Lyn’s portfolio, her reasons for allocation across particular industries, and why she holds shares in silver mining companies. In the Q&A Lyn answers questions about whether we can trust the Federal Reserve and how she uses the Austrian School economic framework to inform her thinking on investment.Resources:Lyn on TwitterLyn’s 2020 article 3 Reasons I’m Investing in BitcoinLyn’s January 2022 Newsletter The Capital Sponge for a discussion of recent developments in the US stock market with historical context (includes a breakdown of her model portfolio).A Tiger by the Tail by F.A. Hayek for a discussion of the Keynesian legacy of inflationGold Wars by Ferdinand Lips for an account of Switerland’s abandonment of the gold standard.The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy by William Strauss and Neil HoweAmerica’s Great Depression by Murray N. Rothbard. See pages 3-80 for Rothbard’s explanation of Austrian Business Cycle Theory.Lyn’s last appearance on The Bitcoin Standard Podcast in May 2022Lyn’s critique of Nassim Taleb’s Bitcoin Black PaperSaifedean’s first book, The Bitcoin StandardSaifedean’s second book, The Fiat Standard