Gary Klein talks to Dan about how surprised he was that the Rams went for Stafford rather than Watson. Gary said that the quickness and speed of the trade was shocking. Kyler Murray talks to Dan about his visit to the show 2 years ago. Kyler tells Dan that he had given his word to play baseball and didn't want to give his decision to play football until later. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Gary Klein of WJE: FIU Bridge Collapse and Exceptions to the NTSB Findings, Ep. 11
Build Big Ideas
The big idea for this episode is to discuss the FIU Bridge Collapse with Gary Klein of Wiss, Janney, Elstner Associates (WJE). Mr. Klein takes exception to the NTSB/FHWA findings. This episode is technical, detailed, and assumes the listener has a general knowledge of the FIU bridge and collapse investigation. For a more general introduction to the FIU Bridge, please see Collapse of the FIU Pedestrian Bridge, Episode 1. Much of this conversation follows along with a presentation that Mr. Klein delivered to the AASHTO Committee on Construction 2020 annual meeting. For full show notes, see Build Big Ideas - Gary Klein of WJE: FIU Bridge Collapse and Exceptions to the NTSB Findings, Ep. 11. Outline and Notes of the Podcast Discussion Brief intro to Gary Klein career and qualifications - National Academy of Engineering member - WJE has a massive structural laboratory, not just computers and pencils - Expert witness experience: Hyatt Regency, Boston Central Artery, and more WJE exceptions to NTSB/FHWA findings - What is the role and incentives for an expert witness? - Obviously, you are committed to facts. Do you strive for impartiality? - Are NTSB, FHWA, and AASHTO aware of the WJE exceptions? Have they provided specific responses? Redundancy: internal, structural, load path - Was the designer responsible for checking the construction sequences? Interface shear transfer testing - Why not conservatively design the connection with enough shear reinforcement steel instead of relying on cohesion at a cold joint? - Is any structure ever constructed perfectly to spec? - Was the cold joint always intended during design, or added later during construction? Load factors and safety factors under dead load during construction - Was the AASHTO code really relevant to a concrete truss member? Lessons learned: EOR onsite, joint inspection, traffic closures for safety References Wiss, Janney, Elstner Associates (WJE) materials: Presentation Slides Party Submission Report National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) materials: Video Summary (5 min) Final Report (154 pages) Threads to pull for future episodes What are the human stories that preceded the collapse? What thoughts do other knowledgeable people have about the collapse?
[REPLAY] Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
Gary Klein is a noted cognitive psychologist with an innate ability to see what others don’t. Over his 40-year career in the field, he’s pioneered the field of naturalistic decision making, the Pre-Mortem method of risk assessment, and the ShadowBox training approach. Gary is the author of five books and editor of three more, and most recently, founded Shadow Box, LLC in 2005 to train decision makers on his technique. You can learn all about Gary at gary-klein.com. Paul and Paul, you may recall, were guests on the show discussing their book that I greatly enjoyed, Pitch the Perfect Investment. Both are former investors and professors of finance. Together Gary, Paul and Paul co-authored a paper entitled Rendering a Powerful Tool Flaccid: The Misuse of Premortems on Wall Street. The paper is a detailed look at how properly conduct Pre-Mortem analysis. Our conversation covers Gary’s background studying expertise with fighter pilots, tools to improve decision-making, including the Shadow Box technique, Cognitive After-Action Reviews, and Pre-Mortems. We then do a deep dive on Pre-Aortem analysis, including its history in the Air Force, what it is, how it works, when it falls short, and the benefits of reducing overconfidence, time efficiency, increasing candor, making groups smarter. We discuss views on other risk mitigation techniques as well, including devil’s advocates, red teams, risk assessment, and critiques. I found the conversation an incredible door opener to one of the most effective and time-efficient sources of value in improving investment decision-making processes. I’m privileged and excited to share this conversation with you. Learn More Read the Transcript Subscribe to the Capital Allocators Blog or Monthly Mailing List Don't Subscribe, but Let Us Know Who You Are Write a review on iTunes Follow Ted on twitter at @tseides Review past episodes of the Podcast
Critical Decisions - Redeciding cognitive biases - Gary Klein (Sources of Power)
Gary Klein is a research psychologist famous for pioneering in the field of naturalistic decision-making. He studied how people make life or death decisions under extreme time pressure and uncertainty, especially firefighters, military generals or ICU nurses he has observed on the field. He is the best selling author of « Sources of Power » edited by MIT Press, « Streetlights and Shadows » and most recently « Seeing What Others Don't: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights ». He presented a PreMortem method of risk assessment in 1998, summarized in a classic HBR article, he published in 2009 a joint study with Daniel Kahneman « Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree » after several years of collaboration, and he was one of the leaders of a team that redesigned the White House Situation Room. « Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect ». Mark Twain During this phone interview with Gary Klein, who likes to debunk false assumptions and limited beliefs to test how strong our foundations are, we address different questions : - With such compounding evidence for decades, why are we in 2020 blinded by the truth that outside a laboratory, cognitive biases are not such a problem or don’t even exist ? - Do decision-makers care about biases ? - What is the impact of the 2020 crisis on our mental view of the world ? - How to differentiate true science filled with doubt, humility and curiosity, and researchers who think there is a definitive truth, and believe they have found it ? - Is there a right way to think ? - How can we improve decision-making performance in organizations facing critical situations, based on human strengths and capabilities ?
Episode #12: Interview with Gary L. Klein of MITRE
Naturalistic Decision Making
Date: 7/6/2020 Show Description: Gary L Klein received his BA in Psychology and his PhD in Cognitive Social Psychology. He is a Senior Principal Scientist in cognitive science and artificial intelligence at The MITRE Corporation, where he has worked for nearly 30 years, focusing primarily on how people acquire and use information in domains including emergency response, air traffic management, and intelligence analysis. He has led projects about using forecasting models that generate graphical depictions of decision spaces to improve decision makers’ “option awareness” under deep uncertainty, designing a Collaborative Option Awareness for Joint Actions, or COAction, process, to provide emergency responders with something beyond situation awareness, and generating a framework for evaluating collaboration. In 2015, Gary and MITRE served as hosts for the 12th International NDM Conference. Where to find Gary MITRE Learn more about NDM: NaturalisticDecisionMaking.org Where to find hosts Brian Moon and Laura Militello: Brian’s website Brian’s LinkedIn Brian’s Twitter Laura’s website Laura’s LinkedIn Laura’s Twitter Resources mentioned during the show: Drury, J. L., Pfaff, M. S., and Klein, G. L. (in press). A Method for Rigorously Assessing Causal Mental Models to Support Distributed Team Cognition. Pfaff, M. S., Drury, J. L., and Klein, G. L. (2015). Crowdsourcing Mental Models using DESIM (Descriptive to Executable Simulation Modeling). Pfaff, M. S., Klein, G. L., Drury, J. L, Moon, S. P., Liu, Y., and Entezari, S. O. (2012). Supporting complex decision making through option awareness. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making Klein, G. L., Drury, J. L., and Pfaff, M. S. (2011). Providing an option awareness basis for naturalistic decision making. Journal of Cognitive Technology, Vol 16(2), pp. 10 – 19.
Dr Gary Klein: Decision Making under Uncertainty and the Role of Intuition.
The AlphaMind Podcast
The very essence of the challenge of trading and investing is making great decisions, under time pressured situations, when faced with extreme uncertainty. The very essence of the challenge of trading and investing is making great decisions, under time pressured situations, when faced with extreme uncertainty. Traders are making decisions in the moment, under-pressure, in the face of volatile and uncertain news flow, whilst battling their own fickle emotions and internal doubts. Success lies in the trader’s ability to make the right decision in these situations, no easy task.Intuition lies at the root of great decision-making. And there is no person in the world more qualified to talk about Intuition and Decision-Making under pressure in uncertain and time limited situations than Dr Gary Klein. Dr Klein has studied and practiced in this field for almost 5 decades. He is credited with creating a whole new field of study, Naturalist Decision Making. And his work has been applied to help improve how people make choices in life and death studies.Prior to Dr Klein’s Naturalistic Decision Making approach, psychologists used laboratory settings to study how people make decisions, with a heavy focus on human bias and errors in judgment. Dr Klein flipped the focus to conducting decision research in real world settings, studying how experts including firefighters, military battle commanders, and doctors use intuition and experience to engage in effective decision-making. Dr Klein has received praise from psychologists and researchers whose perspectives have differed dramatically from his own. Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman wrote, "Gary Klein is a living example of how useful applied psychology can be when it is done well...Klein and I disagree on many things...But I am convinced that there should be more psychologists like him."Amongst some of the innovations which have emerged from Dr Klein’s work is the Pre-Mortem tool. Dr Klein presented the ‘Pre-Mortem’ as a tool for improving thinking, planning and risk management of projects in a 2007 edition of the Harvard Business Review, which can be viewed here. He also founded a method of teaching expert decision-making used an approach called the shadowbox method. Among subjects discussed were: How the Pre-Mortem tool improves decision-making. Developing expert decision-making using the ‘Shadowbox’ method. How the Recognition Primed Decision-Making model captures how experts make decisions.The role of intuition and pattern recognition in decision making. Learning how to use AI tools to aid decision-making. The Naturalistic Decision Making approach to Behavioural Finance compared to the Biases and Heuristics approach. How experienced traders develop the ability to recognise patterns intuitively which enable them to anticipate price moves in ways which even machines have not yet been able to match. Dr Klein also shared some fascinating stories from his years in this field, told in his own inimitable style.You can learn more about Dr Klein at the Shadowbox website: https://www.shadowboxtraining.com/ You can also follow Dr Klein on twitter @KleInsight and if you are interested in joining a live webcast event Dr Klein is running next week jointly with Bryce Hoffman of Red Team Training. Details of this can be found here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/rtt-premortem-analysis-tickets-104166189878
Show Description: “Today we are talking with my friend and business partner, Gary Klein. Gary is one of the pioneers of the Naturalistic Decision Making movement. He is known for moving the study of decision making out of the laboratory and into the wild. In 1989, he invited a small group of international researchers to meet in Dayton, OH to talk about decision making in natural environments and how to study this phenomenon. It was that group of 32 researchers who came up with the term Naturalistic Decision Making. Gary's many contributions include the recognition-primed decision model that has greatly influenced how we all think about decision making and expertise. He and his colleagues developed early cognitive task analysis methods that have been a core set of tools for studying decision making in real world environments. He has mentored countless researchers, including both of us. Gary now lives in Boston, MA. He runs a company called ShadowBox LLC, and is also part-owner and advisor to Applied Decision Science, LLC.” Where to find Gary ShadowBox LLC Website LinkedIn Psychology Today Column Learn more about NDM: Website: https://naturalisticdecisionmaking.org/ Where to find hosts Brian Moon and Laura Militello: Brian’s website Brian’s LinkedIn Brian’s Twitter Laura’s website Laura’s LinkedIn Laura’s Twitter Resources mentioned during the show: Sources of Power by Gary Klein Seeing What Others Don't: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights by Gary Klein Timestamps: Gary's first published paper [1:36] How Gary got started in Naturalistic Decision Making [4:48] Gary's research on Israeli aircraft maintainers' coping methods during Yom Kippur War [7:55] Current NDM-related research that Gary is most excited about [12:10] Two of the biggest mistakes of Gary’s career and how he recovered from them [14:53] Gary shares his favorite research stores: -A firefighter whose quick thinking saved several of his colleague’s lives [22:53] -A British naval officer whose quick, life-saving decision was at first mistaken for ESP [28:00] -A neonatal nurse's expert instincts helped save a baby's life [33:33] Suggestions for how the NDM community can help during today's coronavirus crisis 37:15] Where Gary would prioritize funding and research investment right now [44:05] Associative thinking exercise [46:18] How the scientific method is “often a trap” that can limit researchers' learning opportunities [48:55]
What is a hunch or intuition exactly? Roughly 90 percent of the critical decisions a person actually makes will generally be based more on their gut about the right thing to do rather than hard data. So if you are walking around with a stomachache..maybe something is off!!! Great intuition is not ESP or magic, it's making quick, good decisions on experience. Firefighters are able to make life-and-death decisions rapidly because they pick up on the clues of what is happening and know intuitively how they should react without requiring detailed analysis. Cognitive psychologist Gary Klein, a keen observer of people in their natural settings is going to chat with us about when, why and how insights are formed. Gary is the author of Seeing What Others Don’t, The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights.
Blind Insights - Seeking Insights (Special Guest Gary Klein)
Big Brain Channel
We are joined by Dr. Gary Klein, President of Shadowbox LLC, to discuss Naturalistic Decision Making, how to do a PreMortem, and how to gain Insights.If you found this episode interesting, consider reading some of Gary's work.We hope later to talk to Gary about his new findings in training measures with Shadow Box LLC.If you have any thoughts, questions, or want to present your argument, contact us and send us an audio clip at email@example.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Blind Insights - Seeking Insights (Special Guest Gary Klein)
We are joined by Dr. Gary Klein, President of Shadowbox LLC, to discuss Naturalistic Decision Making, how to do a PreMortem, and how to gain Insights.If you found this episode interesting, consider reading some of Gary's work.We hope later to talk to Gary about his new findings in training measures with Shadow Box LLC.If you have any thoughts, questions, or want to present your argument, contact us and send us an audio clip at firstname.lastname@example.orgSupport the show: https://auscast-network.myshopify.com/collections/blind-insightsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.